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Bostadsrättsmarknaden : En studie om fastighetsmäklares erfarenheter kring beteendebias vid köp av bostadsrätter / The Co-operative Apartment Market : A Study About Real Estate Agents’ Experiences Regarding Biases When Buying Co-operative Apartments.Wingbo, Jesper, Tunon, Elisabet January 2016 (has links)
Bakgrund: Tidigare forskning har till viss del visat att psykologi och känslor influerar människors finansiella beslut och att dagens bostadspriser kan påverkas av beteendefinansens fallgropar. Tidigare empiriska studier har utgått från en kvantitativ- eller experimentell ansats och det saknas därför forskning med en kvalitativ utgångspunkt gällande bostadsköpares beteende samt bostadsprisernas bakomliggande faktorer på bostadsrättsmarknaden i Linköping. Med tanke på att fastighetsmäklare indirekt har möjlighet att observera hur bostadsrättsköpare agerar på bostadsrättsmarknaden, finns intresse att undersöka vad de har noterat. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att, utifrån fastighetsmäklares erfarenheter, identifiera eventuella psykologiska bias vid köp av bostadsrätter och analysera effekter av bostadsköpares beteende vid bostadsrättsköp. Genomförande: I denna kvalitativa studie har åtta intervjuer genomförts med fastighetsmäklare från Linköpings marknadsledande byråer. Samtliga fastighetsmäklare besitter erfarenheter kring huruvida bostadsrättsköpare beter sig på bostadsrättsmarknaden i Linköping. Den insamlade empirin har analyserats utifrån tidigare empirisk forskning inom forskningsområdet, i syfte att analysera effekterna av bostadrättsköpares beteende. Slutsats: Studiens resultat har till viss del kunnat konfirmera att fastighetsmäklare kan utnyttja psykologiska bias, på grund av att människor inte agerar rationellt, med förhoppning om att höja slutpriset på en bostadsrätt i Linköping. Resultatet indikerar även att den befintliga teorin om kalendereffekter går att ifrågasätta. / Background: Previous research has shown, partially, that psychology and emotions can influence peoples’ financial decisions and that current housing prices are a result of biases. Previous empirical studies have taken a quantitative- or experimental approach and there is therefore no research with a qualitative perspective regarding homebuyers’ behavior and house prices underlying factors at the co-operative apartment market in Linköping. Given that real estate agents’ indirectly, are able to identify and interpret how homebuyers act on the co-operative apartment market we find it interesting to scrutinize what they have observed. Aim: The aim of this thesis is to, according to real estate agents’ experiences, identify biases on the co-operative apartment market and analyze the effects of homebuyers’ behavior when buying co-operative apartments. Completion: In this qualitative study, eight interviews where conducted with real estate agents from real estate agencies in Linköping. All real estate agents possess experience about how homebuyers behave at the co-operative apartment market in Linköping. The collected empirical data have been analyzed on the basis of previous empirical research in the field of this research area, in order to analyze the effects of homebuyers’ behavior. Conclusion: This paper can partially verify that real estate agents can use biases, because of the fact that homebuyers don’t act according to the rational model, with the intension to raise the closing price. The study also indicated that the theory about calendar effects can be questioned.
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A study of the relationship between changes in housing values and variations in macroeconomic factorsHaworth, Martin January 2007 (has links)
A Research Report
presented to the
Graduate School of Business Leadership
University of South Africa.
In partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the
MASTERS DEGREE IN BUSINESS LEADERSHIP,
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA / The purpose of this research is to analyse the changes in housing values in
Windhoek, Namibia over the past ten years and explore links in property value
variation to macroeconomic changes during that period. The objectives of this
research are twofold. Firstly this research compiles and assesses the movement of
housing values over the past ten years. Secondly this research assesses if there is a
causal relationship between changes in macroeconomic factors and housing values,
and to define the nature of this relationship. The timing and magnitude of response
by housing values to changes in macroeconomic factors are investigated.
The primary data requirements for this study are a monthly relative value index of
housing prices for the Windhoek area and macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic
data collected relates to macroeconomic conditions within Namibia that could have
an effect on housing prices. This includes information on housing supply, GDP,
population levels, inflation and interest rates. The results of this study explore the
relationship between these factors and changes in housing prices as reflected by
changes in the housing index.
The most significant result of this study is the effect of housing availability on housing
values. Changes in the total supply of housing as estimated by the number of
houses built in a month affect changes in housing values after 5 and 6 months. A
total of 20.5% of the change in housing values can be explained by the change in
total housing supply. The effect of interest rates found by this study was lower than
the theory and literature reviews would have led us to expect. The results of the
Pearson correlation test for the relationship between percentage changes in interest
rates and percentage changes in future housing values found that a relationship
exists 8 months after the change in interest rates occurred. Interest rates were found
to explain 5.5% of the change in housing values 8 months later.
No significant effects were noted for changes in inflation. For population and income
changes there was insufficient data to perform more than a high level look at
possible interactions with the level of housing prices. / Graduate School of Business Leadership / MBL
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Vliv krátkodobé úrokové míry na ceny akcií v České republice / The Impact of Short-term Interest Rate on Stock Prices in the Czech RepublicMichlian, Štefan January 2014 (has links)
This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.
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En empirisk studie om förhållandet mellan oljepriser och den svenska aktiemarknadenHögman Branthall, Baltsar, Jönsson, Elin January 2017 (has links)
Studier om oljepriser och finansiella marknader är relativt få i jämförelse med de studier som finns om förhållandet mellan oljepriser och makroekonomiska variabler. Olja betraktas som en av de viktigaste produktionsfaktorerna, vilket innebär att förändringar i oljepriser påverkar företags kostnader och därmed aktiemarknaden. Att studera förhållandet mellan oljepris och aktiemarknader är av vikt för ett flertal intressenter, bland annat investerare, banker ochportföljförvaltare. Investerare får till exempel svårigheter att maximera aktieavkastning om de inte förstår sambandet mellan oljepris och finansiella marknader. I studien analyserades förhållandet mellan oljepris och den svenska aktiemarknaden med koppling till ränta och växelkurs. Studien baserades på en kvantitativ undersökning med deduktiv ansats, utifrån data över tidsperioden 1991 till 2016. De statistiska tester som genomfördes var en korrelationsanalys, en bivariat och en multipel regressionsanalys. Resultaten visade att det finns ett positivt förhållande mellan oljepris och den svenskaaktiemarknaden. Vidare observerades ett negativt förhållande mellan ränta och den svenska aktiemarknaden och ett positivt förhållande mellan växelkurs och den svenska aktiemarknaden. Studiens första hypotes gällande de grundläggande variablerna förkastades eftersom det ursprungliga antagandet var att ett negativt förhållande skulle råda mellan oljepris och aktiemarknaden i Sverige. Däremot visade studien stöd för resterande två hypoteser. Studiens resultat är inte applicerbart på alla aktiemarknader utan kan begränsas tillbörser i oljeimporterande, utvecklade länder med liknande ekonomisk och politisk struktur som i Sverige. Vidare forskning inom området är nödvändig. Framtida studier bör inkludera fler variabler och ha större fokus på de bakomliggande orsakerna till förändringar i oljepris och deras eventuella koppling till aktiemarknader. Det kan även vara av värde att inkluderasocioekonomiska och politiska faktorer och undersöka oljeprisets effekt inom olika branscher och sektorer på aktiemarknaden. / Studies on oil prices and financial markets are relatively few in comparison to the studies on the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic variables. Oil is considered to be one of the main production factors, which means that changes in oil prices affect corporate costs and thus the stock market. Studies of the relationship between oil price and stock markets areimportant for a number of stakeholders, including investors, banks and portfolio managers. For example, investors get difficulties in maximizing share returns if they do not understand the correlation between oil prices and financial markets.In the study, the relationship between oil prices and the Swedish stock market and its connection with interest rates and exchange rates was analyzed. The study was based on a quantitative survey with a deductive approach, with data over the period 1991 to 2016. The statistical tests conducted were a correlation analysis, a bivariate and a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that there is a positive relationship between oil prices and theSwedish stock market. Furthermore, a negative relationship between interest rates and the Swedish stock market was observed and also a positive relationship between the exchange rate and the Swedish stock market. The study's first hypothesis regarding the basic variables was rejected, since the original assumption was that a negative ratio would prevail between oil prices and the Swedish stock market. On the other hand, the study showed support for the remaining two hypotheses. The study's results are not applicable to all stock markets but can be limited to financial markets in oil importing, developed countries with similar economic and political structure as in Sweden. Further research in the field is necessary. Future studies should include more variables and focus more on the underlying causes of changes in oilprices and their possible links with stock markets. It may also be useful to include socioeconomic and political factors, as well as to investigate the effect of oil prices in different sectors in the stock market.
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Stínová cena vzdušných polutantů v českém energetickém sektoru - odhad pomocí vzdálenostní funkce / Shadow Price of Air Pollution Emissions in the Czech energy sector - Estimation from Distance FunctionRečka, Lukáš January 2011 (has links)
This thesis employs a parametric input distance function that incorporates both desirable and undesirable outputs to provide a more complete representation of the production technology. Based on the Shephard (1970) theory of duality, we derive the shadow prices of undesirable outputs in the Czech energy sector on the data over the period 2002 - 2007. The medians of our shadow prices estimates are 8374, 1198, 2805, 6051 and 8549 € per ton of PM, SO2, NOx, CO and VOC, respectively. We decompose shadow prices estimates and test the hypotheses that the marginal abatement cost decline over time; that marginal abatement cost rice with the declining emission level; and that marginal abatement cost rice with declining emission rate. Key Words: shadow prices, distance function, undesirable outputs, marginal abatement cost JEL classification: C61, D24, Q53
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Volatility and the asset allocation decisionSchwalbach, Joao Bruno January 2017 (has links)
Thesis (M.Com. (Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2017 / This dissertation investigates the inclusion of volatility into the asset allocation decision, first as an asset class, and second as a tool for dynamic equity allocation. An examination on whether volatility exposure as an asset class has the necessary characteristics to form part of the broader investment universe is conducted. This is accomplished by comparing the risk-return characteristics of three naked option-selling strategies, a bull put spread strategy and a VIX futures strategy with the S&P 500 Index. Each volatility strategy is also included as part of a 30/30/40 volatility/equity/bond portfolio and compared to a traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. Historically, the results indicate that all individual volatility strategies generated superior Sharpe ratios and exhibited less severe drawdowns than the S&P 500 Index, particularly during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Additionally, all volatility blended portfolios experienced better tail-risk profiles than the 60/40 equity/bond portfolio, with the naked option-selling strategies also generating similar returns as the 60/40 portfolio both over the full sample period as well during the period of recovery following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The results suggest that the returns associated with option-selling strategies are consistent, and have resulted in strong long-run risk-adjusted performance, qualifying short volatility exposure attained through option-selling strategies as an asset class. It however remains unclear whether the VIX futures strategy qualifies as an asset class given that it aims to exploit a market anomaly in the form of potentially non-priced volatility clustering in the S&P 500 Index. While the strategy generated considerable outperformance from 2004 to 2009, it underperformed from 2009 to 2016 suggesting that much of the non-priced volatility clustering has since been traded away. Drawing on the evidence of volatility clustering in equity markets, a managed volatility trading rule that regulates portfolio exposure between cash and equity based on how high the prevailing volatility level was relative to historical volatility levels is developed. Although transaction costs were not accounted for, the results indicated that the managed volatility trading rule has historically generated considerably superior Sharpe ratios than equity in developed and developing markets. In conclusion, volatility exposure attained through option-selling strategies has proven to be an attractive asset class, and historical evidence suggests that its inclusion into a traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio is likely to reduce the risk of future risk-adjusted underperformance relative to what had been achieved in the past. Additionally, the managed volatility trading rule remains an attractive alternative to investors who are precluded from investing in volatility as an asset class. / GR2018
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Thorough-bread? A study of the system of provision of bread in South AfricaVan der Walt, Katharina January 2016 (has links)
Research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in Development Theory and Policy. / Over one billion people in the world are under-nourished, and over two billion suffer from malnutrition of micro-nutrients – known as ‘hidden hunger’1. This is largely due to the fact that two thirds of the world’s population depend on cereal or tuber based diets (e.g., wheat, maize, potatoes) which tend to satisfy energy demands but not essential micro-nutrients2. The industrialisation of food production systems that occurs as part of the process of economic development has been linked to great improvements in access to food on the one hand, but this has also resulted in major transitions in population-level food consumption and lifestyle patterns. The changes affecting both dietary and physical activity have been termed the ‘nutrition transition’3, which signals the change from consuming large amounts of fibre and low amounts of fat, to a diet comprised of highly processed, high-energy foods. Developing countries now face a ‘triple burden’ in terms of overcoming under-nutrition of micro and macro nutrients, as well as addressing over-consumption related to the ‘nutrition transition’ that accompanies economic development4. Given this setting, this paper sets out to understand how the industrialisation of the wheat to bread chain in South Africa has influenced population consumption patterns and to what extent consumer interests have been marginalised in the pursuit of industrial efficiencies during the development of this chain. This will be done using a ‘Systems of Provision’ approach which enables a vertical analysis of the processes leading up to consumption, whilst allowing for the incorporation of historically defined, context-specific influences on chain development and consumption patterns, including political, socio-economic and cultural factors, which other vertical approaches, such as the Global Value Chain framework do not enable. / MT2017
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[en] ELECTRICAL ENERGY PRICE STRUCTURING FOR THE BRAZILIAN MARKET / [pt] FORMAÇÃO DE PREÇOS DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA PARA O MERCADO BRASILEIROCAROLINA FERREIRA SZCZERBACKI 27 September 2007 (has links)
[pt] Os preços de energia elétrica, insumo básico para todo o
Modelo Setorial,
constituem uma das maiores incertezas do setor. Estas
incertezas abrangem
todos os elementos formadores de preços: a oferta, a
demanda e as regras de
mercado, tornando muitas vezes difícil ao agente a
avaliação concreta e precisa
do processo da formação de preços e do impacto que a
variação de um dos
elementos do processo produz no resultado final. O
objetivo deste trabalho é
apresentar a estrutura de formação de preços no mercado
energético brasileiro
de forma sistematizada, avaliando a composição das
variáveis que afetam esta
estrutura: a demanda por consumo, a expansão do sistema e
as disponibilidades
energéticas. O mercado é modelado em todos os seus
detalhes físicos, e o
cálculo é realizado a partir de todo o arcabouço
regulatório, incluindo a
reprodução do modelo de operação ótima responsável pelos
preços de energia.
Descreve-se inicialmente um modelo de previsão de demanda
por subsistema,
utilizando-se técnicas de Teoria de Análise Funcional.
Focaliza-se em seguida o
suprimento futuro de energia no país a partir da expansão
da oferta. Finalmente,
utiliza-se uma simulação da operação ótima do sistema a
partir da reprodução
dos resultados do modelo utilizado no setor - o Newave - a
partir de uma
implementação própria desenvolvida especialmente no escopo
deste trabalho.
De posse dos possíveis cenários futuros, pode-se mensurar
o impacto que a
variação de cada elemento formador (demanda, expansão e
afluências) tem
sobre os custos de energia. É possível observar que as
incertezas nestas
variáveis podem gerar grandes impactos nos custos
marginais e,
conseqüentemente, nos custos futuros de energia elétrica. / [en] Energy Prices, essential input for the Sectorial Model,
consist on the
biggest uncertainties of the Electric Sector. These
uncertainties enclose all price
elements: the supply, the demand and the market rules,
making sometimes
difficult for the agents to evaluate the price process and
the impact that the
variation of each process element can produce on the
result. The objective is to
present Brazilian price process in a structuralized way,
evaluating the variables
composition that affects this structure: the demand, the
electric system expansion
and the energy supply availability. The market is modeled
in all its physical
details, and the calculation is done into the regulatory
environment, including a
reproduction of the optimal operation model responsible
for energy prices. First, a
demand forecast model is described, based on Functional
Analysis Theory.
Then, the focus is on the energy future supply, analyzing
the supply expansion in
Brazil. Finally, an optimal operation system is simulated,
reproducing the sector
model (Newave) results from an implementation developed in
this work. From
these possible future settings, each element (demand,
expansion and energy
supply availability) variation impact on energy prices can
be measured. The
simulations show that uncertainties about these variables
can have big impacts
on marginal costs and, consequently, on the energy future
prices.
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Análises de bem estar da variação do IPI sobre automóveis novos: uma abordagem de apreçamento hedônico em escolha discreta / Analysis of welfare of the IPI variation on new cars: a hedonic pricing approach in discrete choicePereira, Luan Michel Soares 17 July 2017 (has links)
O mercado automotivo global em 2008 sofreu uma queda drástica na produção e nas vendas após a eclosão da crise do subprime nos Estados Unidos. Em todo o mundo, políticas de fomento foram sendo implementadas sob as mais variadas formas para recuperar o setor. Presumivelmente, em resposta à crise, o governo brasileiro resolveu agir decretando a política anticíclica de redução do IPI ao mercado automobilístico em 2008, sendo está repetida em 2012. Neste mesmo ano também ocorreu a modificação do acordo automotivo Brasil/México, e em 2013 foi implantado o INOVAR-AUTO. Sendo assim, o objetivo do presente estudo, será avaliar o efeito da diminuição do IPI sobre o comportamento da demanda, da oferta e os efeitos líquidos sobre os agentes de mercado. O estudo se relaciona com uma literatura que busca avaliar os efeitos de reformas tributárias em indústrias com produtos diferenciados, como Fershtman, Gandal e Markovich (1999) e Verboven (2002). É empregado o modelo logit aninhado de McFadden et al. (1973) e estendido por Berry (1994), combinado com uma estrutura de competição oligopolista pressupondo equilíbrio nos preços, segundo Nevo (1998), do tipo Nash-Bertrand. Adicionalmente, é elaborado uma análise econométrica preliminar de preços hedônicos, seguindo Griliches (1961), formulado num painel de efeitos fixos que avaliará o comportamento dos preços médios dos veículos novos nos períodos de modificação do IPI. Os resultados dos modelos de apreçamento hedônico demonstram que as montadoras não remanejaram os preços médios no mesmo percentual efetivo da queda do IPI. As variações dos preços foram mais baixas do que a da alíquota. Na metodologia discreta, os resultados apontam que empresas que detém maiores poderes de mercado possuem elasticidades preço próprias baixas. Lucros mais elevados estão associados a marcas que no grosso de suas vendas comercializam automóveis de menor porte que embutem uma alta relação markup preço-custo. Montadoras nacionais tiveram melhor desempenho que suas contrapartes importadoras. A carga tributária altíssima é o principal vilão para o desempenho ruim dos importados. Os excedentes gerados com a modificação do IPI foram positivos para todos os agentes. Consumidores, produtores e governo ganharam com a medida. Ou seja, há espaço para reduções de impostos com aumento da arrecadação do governo. / The global automotive market in 2008 saw a sharp drop in production and sales following the outbreak of the subprime crisis in the United States. Throughout the world, development policies have been implemented in a variety of ways to recover the sector. Presumably, in response to the crisis, the Brazilian government decided to act by decreeing the anti-cyclical policy of reducing the IPI to the automobile market in 2008, and is repeated in 2012. In 2012 also occurred the modification of the automotive agreement Brazil / Mexico, and in 2013 was implanted the INOVAR-AUTO. Therefore, the objective of the present study will be to evaluate the effect of the reduction of IPI on the behavior of demand, supply and net effects on market agents. The study is related to a literature that seeks to evaluate the effects of tax reforms in industries with differentiated products, such as Fershtman, Gandal e Markovich (1999) and Verboven (2002). The nested logit model of McFadden et al. (1973) and extended by Berry (1994), combined with an oligopolistic competition structure presupposing price equilibrium, according to Nevo (1998), of the Nash-Bertrand type, is used. Additionally, a preliminary econometric analysis of hedonic prices is elaborated, following Griliches (1961), formulated in a panel of fixed effects that will evaluate the behavior of the average prices of new vehicles in the periods of modification of the IPI. The results of the hedonic pricing models show that the automakers did not change average prices in the same effective percentage of the IPI fall. Price changes were lower than the rate. In the discrete methodology, the results indicate that companies that have greater market power have lower price elasticities. Higher profits are associated with brands that in the bulk of their sales market smaller automobiles that embody a high price-cost markup ratio. National car manufacturers performed better than their importing counterparts. The very high tax burden is the main villain for the poor performance of imported. The surpluses generated with the IPI change were positive for all agents. Consumers, producers and government won with the measure. That is, there is room for tax cuts with increased government revenue.
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Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina no processo de desregulamentação. / Adjustments in the ethanol and gasoline markets in the deregulation process.Marjotta-Maistro, Marta Cristina 26 August 2002 (has links)
A abertura do setor sucroalcooleiro iniciou-se com a extinção do Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool em 1990, que controlava as suas atividades desde 1933. A liberação dos preços da gasolina C ao consumidor se deu em 1996, generalizando a um processo de liberação no setor como um todo. O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi analisar e caracterizar o mercado de combustíveis, relacionando os efeitos de mudanças em variáveis associadas à oferta e demanda sobre o comportamento dos agentes num mercado parcialmente liberado, ou seja, entre os anos de 1995 e 2000. Os objetivos específicos foram estimar dois modelos: Modelo de Ajuste pelo Preço e Modelo de Ajuste pela Quantidade. O primeiro modelo foi composto por oito equações, sendo quatro delas de quantidades e quatro de preços dos combustíveis - gasolina C ao varejo e ao atacado, álcool anidro ao produtor e gasolina A na refinaria. O segundo modelo foi composto por cinco equações, sendo uma da quantidade de gasolina C do varejo e quatro dos preços dos combustíveis. Os métodos de estimação foram Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios para o primeiro modelo e Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários para o segundo. A distinção entre dois modelos ocorreu devido ao fato de que o sistema de preços de mercado ainda não era eficaz em função do caráter de transição conferido ao período da pesquisa. Com o primeiro modelo verificou-se o grau em que as forças de mercado já operavam entre 1995 e 2000. Com o segundo, procurou-se retratar a dinâmica de ajustamento em um mercado no qual as quantidades ofertadas eram pré-determinadas e os preços se ajustavam a partir de condições previamente estabelecidas pelo governo para a comercialização nos setores sucroalcooleiro e de combustíveis.Com as estimativas do segundo modelo foram calculados os Multiplicadores de Impacto de Theil, possibilitando avaliar os efeitos sobre a qua ntidade e os preços dos combustíveis de choques nas variáveis exógenas do modelo. Os resultados do primeiro modelo permitiram concluir: (a) que os ajustes via preços foram pouco eficazes para influenciar alterações nas quantidades dos combustíveis; e (b) a existência de certa inércia nos movimentos de preços, típica dos sistemas de controle de preços como os que vinham prevalecendo na década de 1990. Com os resultados do segundo modelo, as principais conclusões foram: (a) as variações de demanda tendiam a ser atendidas sem grandes alterações nos preços da gasolina e dos seus componentes; (b) os ajustes de preços ao atacado da gasolina C e da gasolina A, ainda que moderados, eram repassados ao varejo parcialmente; (c) o governo tendia a absorver os choques externos de preços não os repassando imediatamente ao varejo e o varejo não repassava, na mesma proporção, ao consumidor final. Assim, os resultados da pesquisa refletiram setores ainda operando sob a égide do Estado, que controlava suas operações sem necessariamente atender à lógica econômica. À medida que os ajustes nos setores sucroalcooleiro e de combustíveis passarem a ser guiados pelos preços de mercado, alterações de demanda e oferta passarão a se refletir nos preços dos vários elos desses setores, possivelmente nos moldes do Modelo de Ajuste pelo Preço discutido nesta pesquisa. / The economic opening of the sugar-ethanol market was started with the extinction of the "Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool" ( Sugar-Ethanol Institute ) in 1990, which controlled its activities since 1933. The deregulation of gasoline C prices to the consumer took place in 1996, generating the deregulation process in the sector as a whole. The general aim of this study was to analyze and characterize the fuel market, relating the change effects in associated variables to the supply and demand about the agents' behavior in a market partly deregulated, that is, between 1995 and 2000. The specific aims were to estimate two models: Price Adjustment and Quantity Adjustment Models. The first was made up of eight equations, being four of quantities and four of fuel prices - retail and wholesale gasoline C prices, anhydrous ethanol to producer and gasoline A at refineries. The second model was made up of five equations, being one of gasoline C to retailing and four of fuel prices. The estimating methods for the first model were Minimum Squares in Two Stages, whereas Ordinaries Minimum Squares were used for the second one. The distinction between the two models was made necessary due to the fact that the market price system was not efficient yet, because of the transitional condition during the time of the research was done. Through the first model it was checked the degree the market forces already operated between 1995 and 2000. Through the second one, it was attempted to show the dynamic of adjustments in a market, which the amounts offered were pre-determined and the prices adjusted themselves based on commercialization conditions to the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors, previously established by the government. Based on the estimates from the second model, it was figured the Impact Multipliers of Theil, allowing to evaluate the effects over quantities and prices of shock fuels in exogenous variables of the model. Results of the first model allow to conclude: (a) that adjustments via prices were little efficient to influence changes in fuel amounts and; (b) the existence of a certain inertness of prices movements, typical of price control systems like the ones being practiced in the 1990's. Through the results of model two, the main conclusions were: (a) the demand variations tended to be met without major changes in the price of gasoline and its compounds; (b) the wholesale gasoline C and gasoline A at refineries prices adjustments, even moderated, were reposed partly to retailing; (c) the government had a tendency to absorve the external price shocks and did not repose immediately to retailing and the retailing did not repose, at the same extent, to the final consumer. Therefore, the research results reflected sectors still operating under State domain, which controlled their operations without necessarily meeting the economic logic. As the adjustments in the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors start to be dictated by market prices and demand-supply changes, they will start to reflect on prices of the various links of this sector, possibly in the form of the Price Adjustment Model, discussed in this study.
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