<p>The thesis presents annual price series for rye and barley in Östergötland during the period 1592-1735. Prices of wheat, oats, animal products, building materials, iron, nails, horse shoes and horse shoe nails from about the mid-17th century up to 1735 are also presented and analysed. New data has been excerpted from four hospitals and about fifty parishes in Östergötland. Prices from other provinces have also been excerpted for the study. This nes data is compared to already published prices from Sweden´s capital and from several provinces in central parts of the western national region of Sweden of that time. This area constituted Sweden´s core region. By linking the studies results to previous research, a description is made of the price developments for rye, butter and tallow up to 1775, that is, during Sweden´s period of great power and age of freedom. A principal result for the roughly 150 years primarily covered by the thesis is that it was chiefly the prices of rye and barley, the most important food at the time, that fluctuated in twelve cycles. Periodically there were large fluctuatons. The price cycles for corn (half rye, half barley) had an average amplitude of somewhat more than 100 % and a duration of 11 years on average. The prices were on average higher further north in the country. The causes of the price fluctuations are complex. During the major part of the period studied, Sweden was at war or in armistice period, which occupied a large part of the male population. Politically, increasingly great power was gradually concentrated to the king and autocracy was introduced, culminating at the end of Charles XII´s regency. The peasantry was burdened by high taxes and other onuses. After the middle of the 17th century the country was no longer self-subsistent but largely dependent on corn import. The production of foddstuffs decreased, partly through a smaller part of the country´s resources beeing used for production, and partly due to bad harvests. Recurrent epidemics reduced the population even up to the early 18th century.</p>

RESUME FRANCAIS La société en Mésopotamie du Sud, à lépoque de la Dynastie de Larsa, est fondée sur une économie qui possède des caractéristiques particulières et uniques. Cette économie « sui generis », parce que adaptée à une situation donnée, présente lefficacité nécessaire au maintien et au développement dune civilisation remarquable. La période de la Dynastie de Larsa est une période charnière entre la fin de lépoque dUr III et la domination babylonienne sous le règne de Hammurabi, car on peut percevoir que la société a alors subi une véritable évolution. Les centres administratifs, qui, à lépoque dUr III, contrôlaient léconomie, ont progressivement tendance à faire intervenir dans leur gestion des personnes indépendantes, mais il existe une différence bien nette entre la situation à Larsa et celle à Ur : - A Larsa, la gestion des centres administratifs passe par des personnes dont on ignore souvent la fonction, mais la nouveauté est bien évidemment lindépendance dans la gestion des ressources agricoles que vont acquérir de grandes familles comme celle de Balmunamhe. - A Ur, le complexe religieux de Nanna et de Ningal tient dans léconomie une place aussi considérable quà lépoque dUr III. Un bon nombre de personnes, qui nont pas la qualité de membre à part entière du complexe, va cependant soccuper de diverses choses, telles que le bétail et la pêche. On ignore toutefois la marge dindépendance que ces personnes ont par rapport au complexe. La politique tient par ailleurs un rôle primordial dans léconomie. Les misharû sont des actes politiques forts qui vont contribuer à lajustement des prix et des salaires. Les bouleversements politiques vont singulièrement modifier les comportements économiques, le bouleversement politique le plus fort étant sans doute la prise du pouvoir à Larsa par Nûr-Adad, les prix ayant chuté à ce moment précis. La prise du pouvoir à Larsa par les descendants de Kudur-mabuk na pas eu un impact aussi considérable. *********************** ENGLISH SUMMARY The society in southern Mesopotamia at the time of the Dynasty of Larsa, is based on an economy that has particular characteristics and unique. The economy "sui generis" because adapted to a given situation, present this efficiency for the maintenance and development of a remarkable civilization. The period of the Dynasty of Larsa is a pivotal period between the end of the period of Ur III and Babylonian domination under the reign of Hammurabi : we can perceive that the society then suffered a real evolution. The administrative centers, which at the time of Ur III, controlled the economy, gradually tend to intervene in their management of independent persons, but there is a clear difference between the situation in Larsa and Ur: - At Larsa, the management of administrative centers through which people often ignore the function, but the novelty is obviously independence in the management of agricultural resources that will acquire large families like Balmunamhe. - A Ur, the complex religious of Nanna and Ningal takes a considerable at the time of Ur III in the economy. A great number of people who do not qualify as a full member of the complex will deal with various things, such as livestock and fisheries. It is unclear, however, the margin of independence that these people have over the complex. The policy also holds a key role in the economy. The misharû are strong political act that will contribute to the adjustment of prices and wages. The political changes will significantly alter economic behavior, the political upheaval is the strongest probably took power in Larsa by Nur-Adad, prices fell at that time. The seizure of power in Larsa by the descendants of Kudur-Mabuk has not had a considerable impact.

This thesis consists of an introduction and four papers exploring various aspects of the Namibian economy. These aspects cover shadow pricing, environmental valuation and capital market development in Namibia. Paper I estimates the shadow prices of capital, labour and foreign exchange for the Namibian economy. The results suggest that the shadow price of capital for Namibia is 7.2%. The economic costs of Namibian labour, as a share of financial costs, are 32% for urban semi- and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi- and unskilled labour. The economic cost of foreign labour as a share of financial costs is 59%. The estimated shadow exchange rate factor is 4% for the Namibian economy. Paper II derives a set of accounting price ratios (APRs) for the various economic sectors of Namibia by using the Semi-Input–Output (SIO) Technique. An APR is the ratio between the market or financial price and the efficiency or economic value of a specific commodity or sector, which is useful for the economic analysis of investment or development initiatives. This larger set of APRs, derived on the basis of information contained in a Namibian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), should be useful in improving the effective appraisal of development projects and other major investment programmes in Namibia. Paper III analyses returns and volatility on the Namibian and South African stock markets, using the daily closing indices of the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The sample covers the period from 4 January 1999 to 20 March 2003. The methodology has three main parts: (i) unit root tests, (ii) cointegration analysis, and (iii) volatility modelling. The results show that the two markets exhibit very low correlations, and there is no evidence of a linear relationship between the markets. Furthermore, a volatility analysis shows evidence of no spillover effects. These results suggest that the NSX could be an attractive risk diversification tool for regional portfolio diversification in southern Africa Paper IV studies the determinants of property prices in the township areas of Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. The work‟s major finding is that properties located close to an environmental bad (e.g. garbage dump) sell at considerable discounts. On the other hand, properties located near an environmental good (e.g. a recreational open space) sell at a premium. These results provide evidence of the importance of environmental quality in lower-income property markets in developing countries. It is important, therefore, for Namibian urban planners to incorporate environmental quality into the planning framework for lower-income areas.

The thesis presents annual price series for rye and barley in Östergötland during the period 1592-1735. Prices of wheat, oats, animal products, building materials, iron, nails, horse shoes and horse shoe nails from about the mid-17th century up to 1735 are also presented and analysed. New data has been excerpted from four hospitals and about fifty parishes in Östergötland. Prices from other provinces have also been excerpted for the study. This nes data is compared to already published prices from Sweden´s capital and from several provinces in central parts of the western national region of Sweden of that time. This area constituted Sweden´s core region. By linking the studies results to previous research, a description is made of the price developments for rye, butter and tallow up to 1775, that is, during Sweden´s period of great power and age of freedom. A principal result for the roughly 150 years primarily covered by the thesis is that it was chiefly the prices of rye and barley, the most important food at the time, that fluctuated in twelve cycles. Periodically there were large fluctuatons. The price cycles for corn (half rye, half barley) had an average amplitude of somewhat more than 100 % and a duration of 11 years on average. The prices were on average higher further north in the country. The causes of the price fluctuations are complex. During the major part of the period studied, Sweden was at war or in armistice period, which occupied a large part of the male population. Politically, increasingly great power was gradually concentrated to the king and autocracy was introduced, culminating at the end of Charles XII´s regency. The peasantry was burdened by high taxes and other onuses. After the middle of the 17th century the country was no longer self-subsistent but largely dependent on corn import. The production of foddstuffs decreased, partly through a smaller part of the country´s resources beeing used for production, and partly due to bad harvests. Recurrent epidemics reduced the population even up to the early 18th century.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers, which are all related to important environmental and natural resource issues from a developing country perspective. Paper [I] concerns climate policy and addresses the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from the North (richer countries) to the South (poorer countries). The results largely depend on the environmental policy in the pre- transfer resource allocation and, in particular, whether or not the South abates its own emissions. Although the technology transfer is desirable from a “global social planners” point of view, it is shown that the incentives to use the transfer might be weak from the perspective of the North; at least if the South takes its own measures to reduce emissions. However, in a situation where the North is committed to emission reductions according to the Kyoto protocol, it is shown that there will clearly be incentives for the North to use the technology transfer in order to reach the Kyoto targets in a more cost efficient way. In paper [II], the likely effects of an environmental fiscal reform in Namibia are examined by means of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the introduction of an environmental fiscal reform, where taxes on natural and environmental resources (fish rents, energy and water) are recycled to the economy in different ways might give rise to benefits in terms of GDP, employment and income distribution, in addition to the environmental impacts. While subsidizing unskilled labour would give the most favourable outcome in terms of real GDP and employment impacts, a decrease in food taxes might be a more interesting option if GDP, employment, income distribution and environmental impacts are considered in combination. In paper [III], the value of irrigation water used for different crop alternatives in the Hardap region in Southern Namibia is estimated. The study finds that all crop alternatives that farmers in the region currently choose among, will remain financially viable after the planned increases in user charges. However, if full cost recovery is to be achieved in the future, substantial changes in the agricultural production will most likely be necessary. The method is also extended in order to study the potential effects on total water demand if further increases in user charges are implemented. Paper [IV] studies the likely effects of exogenous international food and oil price shocks on the Namibian economy. This is particularly interesting in a country where the domestic consumption of corn and petroleum products is mainly imported, and where water scarcity represents one of the main constraints to agricultural expansion. The results show that the Namibian economy will be negatively affected from the food and oil price increases, and water scarcity will further limit the ability of the economy to adapt to international oil and food price increases.

QC 20100906

I prezzi dei generi alimentari sono cresciuti in modo considerevole in Etiopia a partire dal 2004. Questa tesi esamina a fondo gli effetti distributivi degli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari nelle zone rurali dell’Etiopia. Utilizzando il Rapporto di Beneficio Netto non parametrico ed il Sistema Quadratico di Domanda Quasi Ideale nonché stimando la Variazione Compensata, dimostra come gli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari possano avere effetti positivi sul benessere sociale delle famiglie rurali a livello aggregato. Tuttavia, i guadagni non sono distribuiti uniformemente tra le famiglie; una significativa percentuale di esse sono compratrici nette di cereali e potrebbero essere sfavorite da un aumento dei prezzi dei cereali qualora non beneficiassero di un aumento del reddito associato ad attività diverse dall’agricoltura. Teoreticamente, le famiglie rurali dovrebbero beneficiare di un aumento del prezzo dei generi alimentari poiché sono sia produttori sia consumatori dei prodotti. Un aumento della produttività agricola, attraverso l’intensificazione e la diversificazione delle produzioni, è un’importante strumento di politica economica che può limitare gli effetti negativi, di breve e di lungo periodo, sugli acquirenti netti rurali di generi alimentari derivanti da un aumento del loro prezzo. La tesi esamina anche la resilienza alla mancanza di cibo, la stagionalità nel consumo del cibo e la partecipazione nel mercato così come il ruolo dei trasferimenti monetari e delle preferenze dei beneficiari degli stessi. / Food prices in Ethiopia considerably rose since 2004. This thesis thoroughly examines the distributional impacts of high food prices in rural Ethiopia. Using the non-parametric Net Benefit Ratio analysis as well as Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and estimating Compensated Variation, it shows high food prices have positive impact on the welfare of rural households at aggregate levels. The gains, however, are not evenly distributed among households; large proportion of them are net cereal buyers (major staples) and could be adversely affected by rising cereal prices unless compensated by increase in income from off-farm activities. Theoretically, rural households should benefit from rising food prices as they are both consumers and producers of the products. Promoting agricultural productivity, through intensification and diversification, is an important policy tool to overcome short and long-run negative impacts of high food prices on rural net buyers. It also examines resilience to food insecurity, food consumption seasonality and market participation as well as cash transfers and beneficiaries preferences.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Economics

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Mathematics

This thesis consists of three essays on risk management in crude oil markets. In the first essay, the valuation of an oil sands project is studied using real options approach. Oil sands production consumes substantial amount of natural gas during extracting and upgrading. Natural gas prices are known to be stochastic and highly volatile which introduces a risk factor that needs to be taken into account. The essay studies the impact of this risk factor on the value of an oil sands project and its optimal operation. The essay takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas markets and, accordingly, proposes two models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two markets while the other has no such link. The valuation problem is solved using the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSMC) method proposed by Longsta ff and Schwartz (2001) for valuing American options. The valuation results show that incorporating a long-run relationship between the two markets is a very crucial decision in the value of the project and in its optimal operation. The essay shows that ignoring this long-run relationship makes the optimal policy sensitive to the dynamics of natural gas prices. On the other hand, incorporating this long-run relationship makes the dynamics of natural gas price process have a very low impact on valuation and the optimal operating policy. In the second essay, the relationship between the slope of the futures term structure, or the forward curve, and volatility in the crude oil market is investigated using a measure of the slope based on principal component analysis (PCA). The essay begins by reviewing the main theories of the relation between spot and futures prices and considering the implication of each theory on the relation between the slope of the forward curve and volatility. The diagonal VECH model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) was used to analyse the relationship between of the forward curve slope and the variances of the spot and futures prices and the covariance between them. The results show that there is a significant quadratic relationship and that exploiting this relation improves the hedging performance using futures contracts. The third essay attempts to model the spot price process of crude oil using the notion of convenience yield in a regime switching framework. Unlike the existing studies, which assume the convenience yield to have either a constant value or to have a stochastic behaviour with mean reversion to one equilibrium level, the model of this essay extends the Brennan and Schwartz (1985) model to allows for regime switching in the convenience yield along with the other parameters. In the essay, a closed form solution for the futures price is derived. The parameters are estimated using an extension to the Kalman filter proposed by Kim (1994). The regime switching one-factor model of this study does a reasonable job and the transitional probabilities play an important role in shaping the futures term structure implied by the model.