This study proposes new methods for the reliability-based design of structural systems, with emphasis on offshore mooring systems. After a brief introduction to the mooring systems, two main objectives are discussed in this dissertation. The first objective is the calculation of the probability of failure of a structural system, which is an important input for a reliability-based design or any quantitative risk assessment. Two different methods are proposed for calculation of the probability of failure: a method based on the Monte Carlo simulations and a method based on the basic rules of probability, which is called the Progressive Reliability Method (PRM). Both methods are flexible to the definition of system failure. For example, the probability of a serviceability or ultimate-strength failure can be assessed using any of the two methods. It is shown that the two methods produce similar results, but PRM is preferred because it is exact and usually faster to implement. The second main objective in this dissertation is to develop a method for the optimization of the design of a structural system, given a target probability of failure. In this method, using the structural analysis of a preliminary design, the ratio of the optimal to the preliminary mean capacity of each component, which is called the Optimality Factor, is determined. Two design strategies are considered. First, an optimal design is intended to achieve the maximum system integrity. System integrity is defined as the balanced contribution of system components to its reliability. To quantify the system integrity, the Integrity Index is defined, and its calculation for various systems is discussed. Second, a designated failure scenario is considered, where some components serve as a fuse to protect some other components. This design strategy is especially applicable to mooring systems with drag anchor foundations because normally, if a drag anchor is pulled out from the seabed, it can cause significant damages to nearby subsea facilities. Using the rules of probability, a method is then developed to calculate the optimality factor of each component.

[pt] São abordados alguns aspectos relativos à execução de análises probabilísticas em projetos de geotecnia. Apresenta-se um resumo dos conceitos de probabilidade e estatística, utilizados ao longo do trabalho. Descreve-se uma metodologia para a obtenção dos dados necessários à análise probabilística, incluindo a quantidade e a localização de amostras, o cálculo das médias e variâncias dos parâmetros do solo e a quantificação das incertezas relativas a estes valores. Apresenta-se o procedimento de execução dos três métodos probabilísticos mais utilizados em geotecnia com ênfase especial para o Método do Segundo Momento de Primeira Ordem. São executadas análises probabilísticas considerando, separadamente, variações de altura e inclinação de um talude de mineração sob condições drenadas. Avalia-se também a aplicação da metodologia de análise probabilística em situações não-drenadas, através da análise da estabilidade de um quebra-mar sobre argila mole. / [en] Some aspects about probabilistic analysis of stability in geotechnical engineering are studied in this thesis. A summary about basic concepts of probability and statistics used along this work is presented. The methodology for obtaining the data needed for probabilistic analysis is described, including quantity and localization of samples, computation of mean and variance of soil properties and determination of uncertainties about these values. The procedures of three probabilistic methods which are useful in geotechnics are presented, with special emphasis on the first order second moment method (FOSM). Probabilistic analysis are made considering independent changes of height and inclination of a mine slope under drained conditions. The application of probabilistic analysis of a breakwater above a soft clay deposit under undrained conditions is also presented. / [es] Se abordan algunos aspectos relativos a la ejecución de análisis probabilístico en proyectos de geotecnia. Se presenta un resumen de los conceptos de probabilidades y estadísticas, utilizados a lo largo del trabajo. Se describe una metodología para la obtención de los datos necesarios para el análisis probabilístico, incluyendo la cantidad y la localización de las muestras, el cálculo de las medias y variancias de los parámetros del suelo y la cuantificación de los errores relativos a estos valores. Se presenta el procedimientode ejecución de los tres métodos probabilísticos más utilizados en geotecnia con énfasis especial para el Método del Segundo Momento de Primer Orden. Se realizan análisis probabilísticos considerando, separadamente, variaciones de altura e inclinación de un talud de mineración en condiciones drenadas. También se evalúa la aplicación de la metodología de análisis probabilística en situaciones no-drenadas, a través de el análisis de la estabilidad de un quebra olas sobre arcilla blanda.

Safety of dams can be evaluated based on the risk analysis methodologies that accounts for estimation of the risks associated to the dam-reservoir system. For this purpose it is important to estimate the probability of load events and probability of failure for several failure modes. The following thesis emphasises on estimation of the probability of one specific failure mode, i.e. “sliding failure” for a concrete gravity dam. The main idea behind this thesis was to analyse the estimation of the probability of sliding failure of an existing dam by obtaining the relationships among the different load events, factors of safety associated to those events and the probability of failure estimated using numerical simulation techniques together with different reliability methods. The analysed dam is taken from theme C of the eleventh ICOLD Benchmark workshop on numerical analysis of dams. The thesis covers the methodology for estimating the probability of failure of a given concrete gravity dam with five water levels, considering the sliding failure mode along the dam-foundation interface along with the estimation of factors of safety for each water level and with two different drainage conditions. First order second moment Taylor’s Series Approximation is being used as Level 2 reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation as Level 3 reliability method to estimate the probability of failure against sliding of the dam. Conclusions are drawn in the end by comparing the results obtained from factor of safety estimation and probability of failure for each water level and drainage condition, followed by suggestions for further research in the context of sliding stability of concrete dams.

No description available.

No description available.

Neste trabalho avalia-se a confiabilidade de tubos circulares de concreto armado submetidos à compressão diametral utilizada no controle de qualidade da produção. O estudo envolve uma parte experimental e uma teórica. Na parte experimental foram ensaiados 32 tubos divididos em duas séries de 16 tubos de diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Cada série era formada por 12 tubos tipo ponta e bolsa (PB) e 4 tubos tipo ponta sem bolsa (PSB). Na parte teórica, os tubos foram analisados por um programa computacional baseado no método dos elementos finitos desenvolvido para pórticos planos considerando as não-linearidades física e geométrica. Na análise de confiabilidade, as funções de estado limite foram determinadas segundo o Método da Superfície de Resposta. Os resultados numéricos e experimentais da curva força versus deslocamento apresentaram boa concordância e indicaram que o tubo se comportou como um anel circular, uma vez que os tubos tipo PSB apresentaram forças últimas da ordem de 4% e 12% maiores que as obtidos para os tubos PB, respectivamente para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Entretanto, a presença da bolsa influenciou no valor da força de fissuração, sendo 6,4% e 33% maior para os tubos PB em relação aos tubos PSB para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm, respectivamente. A teoria de confiabilidade mostrou que a probabilidade de falha dos tubos de concreto para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral foi fortemente influenciada pelo controle de qualidade dos materiais utilizados na fabricação dos tubos. Ainda, foi observado que os tubos analisados apresentaram índice de confiabilidade superior a 3,8, para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral. Dentre as variabilidades mais influentes no cálculo do índice de confiabilidade, destacam-se a resistência à compressão do concreto, a espessura do tubo e a posição da armadura. / This work evaluates the reliability of circular reinforced concrete pipes subjected to diametrical compression considering the quality control of the production. The study includes experimental and theoretical parts. In the experimental part, 32 pipes divided in two series of 16 pipes according to the nominal diameter of 800 mm and 1200 mm were tested. Each series was composed by 12 spigot and pocket pipes (PB) and 4 ogee joint pipes (PSB). In the theoretical part, the pipes were analyzed using a computational program based on finite element method developed for frame structures considering physical and geometrical nonlinearities. In reliability analysis, the limit state functions were determined according to the Method of Response Surface. Numerical and experimental results of the loading versus displacement curves were well agreed and they indicated that the pipe behaves as a circular ring, once the PSB pipes presented maximum loads 4% and 12% higher than those obtained for PB pipes, respectively for nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm. However, the presence of pocket influenced the cracking loading, with 6.4% and 33% higher for PB pipes in relation to PSB pipes for the nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm, respectively. The reliability theory showed that the probability of failure of concrete pipes to meet the diametrical compression test was strongly influenced by the quality control of materials used in manufacturing the pipes. Also, it was observed that analyzed pipes presented reliability index greater than 3.8, to meet the diametrical compression test. Among the most influential variabi1ities in evaluating of reliability index, the concrete compressive strength, the pipe thickness and the position of the reinforcement in the pipe can be highlighted.

Neste trabalho avalia-se a confiabilidade de tubos circulares de concreto armado submetidos à compressão diametral utilizada no controle de qualidade da produção. O estudo envolve uma parte experimental e uma teórica. Na parte experimental foram ensaiados 32 tubos divididos em duas séries de 16 tubos de diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Cada série era formada por 12 tubos tipo ponta e bolsa (PB) e 4 tubos tipo ponta sem bolsa (PSB). Na parte teórica, os tubos foram analisados por um programa computacional baseado no método dos elementos finitos desenvolvido para pórticos planos considerando as não-linearidades física e geométrica. Na análise de confiabilidade, as funções de estado limite foram determinadas segundo o Método da Superfície de Resposta. Os resultados numéricos e experimentais da curva força versus deslocamento apresentaram boa concordância e indicaram que o tubo se comportou como um anel circular, uma vez que os tubos tipo PSB apresentaram forças últimas da ordem de 4% e 12% maiores que as obtidos para os tubos PB, respectivamente para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Entretanto, a presença da bolsa influenciou no valor da força de fissuração, sendo 6,4% e 33% maior para os tubos PB em relação aos tubos PSB para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm, respectivamente. A teoria de confiabilidade mostrou que a probabilidade de falha dos tubos de concreto para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral foi fortemente influenciada pelo controle de qualidade dos materiais utilizados na fabricação dos tubos. Ainda, foi observado que os tubos analisados apresentaram índice de confiabilidade superior a 3,8, para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral. Dentre as variabilidades mais influentes no cálculo do índice de confiabilidade, destacam-se a resistência à compressão do concreto, a espessura do tubo e a posição da armadura. / This work evaluates the reliability of circular reinforced concrete pipes subjected to diametrical compression considering the quality control of the production. The study includes experimental and theoretical parts. In the experimental part, 32 pipes divided in two series of 16 pipes according to the nominal diameter of 800 mm and 1200 mm were tested. Each series was composed by 12 spigot and pocket pipes (PB) and 4 ogee joint pipes (PSB). In the theoretical part, the pipes were analyzed using a computational program based on finite element method developed for frame structures considering physical and geometrical nonlinearities. In reliability analysis, the limit state functions were determined according to the Method of Response Surface. Numerical and experimental results of the loading versus displacement curves were well agreed and they indicated that the pipe behaves as a circular ring, once the PSB pipes presented maximum loads 4% and 12% higher than those obtained for PB pipes, respectively for nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm. However, the presence of pocket influenced the cracking loading, with 6.4% and 33% higher for PB pipes in relation to PSB pipes for the nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm, respectively. The reliability theory showed that the probability of failure of concrete pipes to meet the diametrical compression test was strongly influenced by the quality control of materials used in manufacturing the pipes. Also, it was observed that analyzed pipes presented reliability index greater than 3.8, to meet the diametrical compression test. Among the most influential variabi1ities in evaluating of reliability index, the concrete compressive strength, the pipe thickness and the position of the reinforcement in the pipe can be highlighted.

[pt] Neste trabalho apresenta-se um procedimento para a avaliação da Integridade Estrutural em máquinas de levantamento e movimentação de materiais utilizando a metodologia de Inspeção Baseada em Risco (IBR), com o objetivo de identificar as partes com maior risco de falha. Esta metodologia avalia tanto as Probabilidades de falha como as Consequências de falha para identificar os pontos críticos que serão analisados com prioridade nos programas de inspeção futuros. Um guincho hidráulico de pequeno porte é usado como exemplo da aplicação deste procedimento a equipamentos de grande porte. No desenvolvimento desta metodologia executa-se uma análise detalhada das tensões envolvidas nos principais pontos da máquina, considerando o cálculo analítico, cálculo numérico, medições experimentais e análise de incertezas. Para o cálculo das probabilidades de falha foram considerados os seguintes mecanismos de dano: colapso plástico por carregamento excessivo, fadiga e corrosão. As probabilidades de falha para cada mecanismo são calculadas e classificadas em diferentes níveis, assim como as consequências de falha, o que origina diferentes níveis de risco. / [en] This report presents a procedure for the assesment of Structural Integrity of material lifting and handling machinery, using the methodology of Risk Based Inspection (IBR - Inspeção Baseada em Risco) in order to indentify the parts with high risk of failure. This methodology assesses both probabilities of failure and consequences of failure to identify the critical points; those will be analyzed with priority in future inspection programs. A small hydraulic hoist is used as an example of this procedure applying to big equipments. A detailed strain analysis is carried out for the most important points of the equipment. The strain analysis consider analytic calculations, numeric calculations, experimental measurements and related uncertainly evaluations. In order to calculate the probabilities of failure, the followings damage mechanisms were considered: plastic collapse by excessive loading, fatigue and corrosion. The failure probabilities for each mechanism are calculated and classificated in different levels, as well as failure consequences, that originate different risk levels.

<div>Ensuring the resilience of a state’s transportation network is necessary to guarantee an acceptable quality of life for the people the network serves. A lack of resilience in the wake of a seismic event directly impacts the states’ overall safety and economic vitality. With the recent identification of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WBSV), Department of Transportations (DOTs) like Indiana’s have increased awareness for the vulnerability of their bridge network. The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) has been steadily working to reduce the seismic vulnerability of bridges in the state in particular in the southwest Vincennes District. In the corridor formed by I-69 built in the early 2000s the bridge design is required to consider seismic actions. However, with less recent bridges and those outside the Vincennes District being built without consideration for seismic effects, the potential for vulnerability exists. As such, the objective of this thesis is to develop a robust seismic vulnerability assessment methodology which can assess the overall vulnerability of Indiana’s critical bridge network. </div><div><br></div><div>A representative sample of structures in Indiana’s bridge inventory, which prioritized the higher seismic risk areas, covered the entire state geographically, and ensured robust superstructure details, was chosen. The sample was used to carry a deterministic seismic vulnerability assessment, applicable to all superstructure-substructure combinations. Analysis considerations, such as the calculation of critical capacity measures like moment-curvature and a pushover analysis, are leveraged to accurately account for non-linear effects like force redistribution. This effect is a result of non-simultaneous structural softening in multi-span bridges that maintain piers of varying heights and stiffnesses. These analysis components are incorporated into a dynamic analysis to allow for the more precise identification of vulnerable details in Indiana’s bridge inventory.</div><div><br></div><div>The results of this deterministic seismic assessment procedure are also leveraged to identify trends in the structural response of the sample set. These trends are used to identify limit state thresholds for the development of fragility functions. This conditional probabilistic representation of bridge damage is coupled with the probability of earthquake occurrence to predict the performance of the structure for a given return period. This probabilistic approach alongside a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess the vulnerability of linked bridges along key-access corridors throughout the state. With this robust seismic vulnerability methodology, DOTs will have the capability of identifying vulnerable corridors throughout the state allowing for the proactive prioritization of retrofits resulting in the improved seismic performance and resiliency of their transportation network.</div>

[pt] Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da aplicação de análises probabilísticas na avaliação da estabilidade de taludes, com base no caso da ruptura de um quebra-mar construído sobre argila mole no Terminal Portuário de Sergipe, em outubro de 1989. Realizou-se uma análise estatística das características geotécnicas dos materiais presentes na obra, enfatizando a variabilidade inerente dos dados. Nas análises probabilísticas, foram adotados três métodos: FOSM, Estimativas Pontuais e Simulação de Monte Carlo. São apresentados os conceitos básicos de confiabilidade e probabilidade de ruptura e as hipóteses e etapas de cálculo consideradas em cada método. Discutem-se brevemente os diferentes métodos de equilíbrio limite utilizados para superfícies poligonais de ruptura. Três cenários foram estudados, em relação aos procedimentos adotados: análises em tensões totais, com a resistência da argila mole obtida por ensaios de campo e laboratório; análises em tensões efetivas, com o ângulo de atrito da argila oriundo de ensaios triaxiais, e análises em tensões efetivas, com o ângulo de atrito da argila obtido de retroanálise da ruptura ocorrida na obra. Observou-se que para os três cenários os valores de probabilidades de ruptura foram, respectivamentem, da ordem de: 1/70, 1/2100 e 1/30. Além disso, ao considerar as metodologias de cálculo probabilístico por FOSM e Estimativas Pontuais, os resultados foram mais conservadores em relação a Simulação de Monte Carlo. / [en] This work aims at applying available methods of probabilistic analysis for assessing the stability of a breakwater built on soft clay at the Sergipe Terminal, gathering information on the existent materials in the field and a statistical analysis of the geotechnical parameters, emphasizing the inherent variability as part of the research. Three probabilistic techniques of analysis have been used: FOSM, Point Estimates and Monte Carlo Simulation. The hypotheses, calculation steps and basic concepts of reliability index and probability of failure are presented, with brief discussions on the different limit equilibrium procedures used for polygonal surfaces. Three scenarios were studied, regarding the soft clay parameters: total stress analysis, considering undrained loading, effective stress analysis with effective friction angle from triaxial tests, and effective stress analysis with effective friction angle from back analysis of a previous failure. For the three scenarios, the probability of failure values were, respectively around: 1/70, 1/2100 and 1/30. Besides this, when using the FOSM and Point Estimates probabilistic techniques, the results proved to be more conservative, in comparison to Monte Carlo Simulation.