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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
91

The performance of Bangladeshi commercial banks : the role of corporate governance

Mahbub, Tasmina January 2016 (has links)
Academic studies of Bangladeshi Private Commercial Banks (PCBs) have identified issues of Corporate Governance relating to ‘crony capitalism’ and political influence. The thesis combines quantitative and qualitative methods. The research employs conventional econometric panel estimation and a novel method of estimating efficiency using a non-parametric bootstrapping technology. The results reveal significant performance differences. To understand the causes underlying the differences in revenue efficiency and profitability, multiple lenses from theories of Corporate Governance are adopted to design semi-structured interviews. Twenty in-depth interviews from a sample of banks, both managers and board members and industry stakeholders are supplemented with documentary analysis. The quantitative findings reveal a performance gap between 1st Generation PCBs and 2nd and 3rd Generation PCBs in terms of Efficiency and Profitability. 1st Gen PCBs perform worst whereas there is no statistical difference between Gen 2 and Gen 3 PCBs. Moreover, there is no sign of catch-up or improvement for the 1st Generation PCBs. The research demonstrates that an increasing amount of 1st Generation banks’ Non Performing Loans is the main reason for this performance gap. The interview data relate the performance gaps to inadequate Corporate Governance. The research identifies family dominated boards that have encouraged crony capitalism and featherbedding of employees resulting in excessive Non Performing Loans and higher overhead costs. Also, these 1st Generation banks are excessively large in terms of employees, rural branches and remittance earnings leading to a culture of invulnerability to takeover.
92

Towards a sustainable business model for financial markets

Abioye, Olukorede Eliza January 2016 (has links)
The implementation of different business models has enabled financial markets to not only create value for their benefits, but it has also helped them contribute to economic growth, as well as fulfil their roles in the society. However, the impacts of technological advancements, cross-border flows and regulations continually introduce new dynamics into the business environments of financial markets and as a result, financial markets are faced with future uncertainties. These have increased the dire need for markets to continue to devise methods that can be adapted to survive and thrive in the economy. Hence, financial markets are focusing on profitability than growth, or ideally profitable growth. As a means to achieve this, financial markets need to continually innovate and re-examine their business models to sustain growth. However financial markets still have to adapt general business model frameworks to design new business models because of the lack of a business model framework that has been designed specifically to meet the needs of financial markets. In the midst of these uncertainties, “business as usual” is not an option for a sustainable future; financial markets need sustainable business models that can be used to future proof their business strategies and create long-term value. This research identifies the need for sustainable business models in financial markets and identifies the lack of a framework for sustainable business models. Hence it aims at developing a business model framework that can be used to develop sustainable business models; with an objective of achieving long-term profitability while only having a minimal long lasting impact on the physical and social environments and to be sufficient enough to compare the business models of financial markets. This research contributes to the knowledge of business models, sustainability, and competition in financial markets.
93

Usando redes Bayesianas para a previsão da rentabilidade de empresas

L'Astorina, Humberto Carlos January 2009 (has links)
O presente trabalho emprega Redes Bayesianas para a previsão da rentabilidade de empresas. Define-se como rentabilidade superior as empresa que obtiveram retorno para os acionistas classificados acima de 81,5% em relação às demais. Adota-se a metodologia de seleção dos indicadores proposta por Sun e Shenoy (2007), que seleciona as variáveis explicativas segundo suas correlações com a variável classificadora. Obtêm-se, ao final, dois modelos sendo o primeiro com dois estados de classificação de empresas, superior e inferior; o segundo com três estados (superior mediano e inferior). Assim como Sun e Shenoy (2007), tenta-se validar o modelo Bayesiano com a regressão logística. Constata-se que não é possível afirmar que as média das taxas de sucesso dos dois modelos sejam diferentes ao se prever rentabilidade superior, entretanto a regressão tem melhor desempenho ao se prever rentabilidade baixa. A variável mais significativa tanto para o primeiro quanto para o segundo modelos foi a classificação atual da empresa, ou seja, empresas que figuram em um determinado ano no estado de rentabilidade superior são as mais propensas a repetir o resultado do que as demais. Os resultados apontam taxas de acerto que vão de 14,70% em 1999 (ano da crise cambial quando a rentabilidade média das empresas foi de 2,74%) a 52,94% em 1997 (ano cuja rentabilidade média foi de 11,76%) para o primeiro modelo e de 11,76 % (1999) a 56,60 % (2004, rentabilidade média de 10,76%) para o segundo modelo. Apesar dos modelos ainda não conseguirem alcançar uma estabilidade nas previsões os resultados são animadores quando se desenvolve a hipótese de utilidade para um possível investidor e a expectativa de retorno acumulado, ao longo dos dez anos, passa de 70,37%, que é a rentabilidade média acumulada do período, para 357,07% e 410,10 % para o primeiro e o segundo modelo respectivamente. / This work use the knowledge obtained from Bayesian networks studies of bankruptcy prediction and applied it for forecasting companies' profitability. Higher profitability is defined as the company that had returns for shareholders classified over 81.5% compared to the others. Adopting the methodology of selection of the explanatory variables proposed by Sun and SHENOY (2007) based on correlations among them with the classification variable. As a result it is obtained two models, the first one with two classification states for de classification variable, upper and low, and the second one with three states (upper, middle and low). As Sun and SHENOY (2007), the Bayesian model was compared with a logistic regression. It cannot be say that the average success rates of the two models are different for forecasting higher profitability; otherwise, for low profitability forecasts the regression model was superior. The most significant variable for both the first and for the second model was the previous company's return for the shareholders, i.e. companies that are in a given year in the state of upper profitability are more likely to repeat the resulting the next year. The results show success rates ranging from 14.70% in 1999 (year of the currency crisis when the average profitability of the companies was 2.74%) to 52.94% in 1997 (average return rate was 11.76 %) for the first model and from 11.76% (1999) to 56.60% (2004, average return rate was 10.76%) for the second model. Although the models still fail to achieve stability in the estimates the results are encouraging when developing the hypothesis of possible investor profitability when the expectation of return accumulated over the ten years, range from 70.37%, which is the average profitability accumulated in the period to 357.07% and 410.10% respectively for the first and second model.
94

“Auditors’ journey to the top” : The case of Sweden

Alfakir, Tammam, Abdullah, Saleh January 2018 (has links)
Promotion to partner has always been a future goal for auditors, still becoming a partner is not an easy task, and it has many requirements, and since the audit profession is a sensitive profession and it concern everyone in the society, and since partners are the most important capital that audit firms have, so that is why we thought it is very important to investigate how this position can be reached?This research has a qualitative methodology and has interviews and internal documents as research strategy. The research consist of 7 interviews varied between authorized auditors who are still working in auditing firms or left it before becoming partners, partners and HR, the interviews were performed personally via phone or face to face.The findings are based on semi structured interviews and internal documents. There is significant effect between profitability and promotion to partner beside many more aspects such as Reputation, personal characteristics, promotion systems, personal branding, overtime, industry specialized, education and gender, but being profitable was the most important one.
95

Tendance, les déterminants et le rôle de singnaling des dividendes en Europe : trois études / Dividend payment behavior of European listed firms : Three essays

Ali, Ijaz 20 December 2013 (has links)
La thèse se compose de trois études consacrées à la politique de dividendes des entreprises européennes cotées. Le premier essai étudie : (i) les éléments déterminants entraînant le paiement de dividendes, (ii) le changement au fil du temps dans le comportement des entreprises, pour le paiement de dividendes et (iii) les facteurs à l’origine de la diminution de la proportion des entreprises européennes payant des dividendes. En utilisant des sociétés cotées de 21 pays européens entre 1991 et 2010, nous voulons déterminer si les entreprises européennes payant des dividendes suivent la même tendance à la baisse que celle constatée aux États-Unis. En outre, cette analyse nous fournit l'occasion d'étudier les facteurs qui sont importants dans la détermination de la politique de dividende en Europe. Le deuxième essai étudie les facteurs qui sont responsables à long terme (permanents) des changements de la politique de dividendes par les entreprises européennes cotées. Dans cet essai, nous examinons les facteurs qui motivent les changements durables dans les politiques de dividendes , à savoir qui conduisent un payeur de dividende régulier à suspendre les paiements de façon permanente, ou au contraire, qui conduisent une entreprise n’ayant jamais payé de dividendes à adopter une politique de versements de dividendes réguliers. Le troisième essai étudie la validité empirique de l’hypothèse de l’effet signal du dividende. Dans un premier temps, nous examinons l'association entre les changements de dividendes et les changements futurs de bénéfices pour l'échantillon complet. Dans une deuxième étape, nous ne considérons que les annonces de changement de dividendes qui sont suivies par des changements inattendus dans les cours des actions pendant la période de trois jours autour de l’annonce du changement de dividende. Les changements dans les prix des actions devraient être dans le sens de l'évolution des dividendes si nous supposons que les forces du marché ne réagissent qu’aux changements des annonces de dividendes, qui ont contenu de l'information sur les bénéfices futurs. / The dissertation consists of three studies devoted to the dividend policy of European listed firms. The first essay investigates: (i) the determinants of dividend payments; (ii) the change in the dividend payment behavior of firms over time; and (iii) factors that are responsible for the decrease in the proportion of dividend payers in Europe. By using listed firms from 21 European countries between 1991 and 2010, we want to determine whether European dividend payers follow the same declining trend as US ones. Furthermore, this analysis provides us the opportunity to study the factors that are important in the determination of dividend policy in Europe. The second essay investigates the factors that are responsible for long term (permanent) dividend policy changes by European listed firms. In this essay we examine the factors that motivate lasting changes in dividend policies, i.e. that lead a regular dividend payer to stop payments permanently, or conversely that lead a never paid firm to adopt a policy of regular dividend payments. The third essay investigates the empirical validity of the dividend signaling hypothesis. In a first step we examine the association between dividend changes and future earnings changes for the full sample. In a second step we consider only those dividend change announcements that are followed by unexpected changes in stock prices during the three days period around dividend change announcements. The changes in stock prices should be in the direction of dividend changes if we assume that market forces react only to dividend change announcements, which have information content about future earnings.
96

A heveicultura na mesorregião leste do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul: aspectos técnicos e econômicos / Heveiculture in the eastern mesorregião of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul: technical and economic aspects

Leal, Stella Tosta [UNESP] 14 August 2017 (has links)
Submitted by STELLA TOSTA LEAL null (stellatostaleal@gmail.com) on 2017-10-17T01:42:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LEAL, S. T., 2017.pdf: 2258370 bytes, checksum: b71ae01183b3aa1336185c93a9217879 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Monique Sasaki (sayumi_sasaki@hotmail.com) on 2017-10-18T19:28:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 leal_st_dr_ilha.pdf: 2258370 bytes, checksum: b71ae01183b3aa1336185c93a9217879 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-18T19:28:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 leal_st_dr_ilha.pdf: 2258370 bytes, checksum: b71ae01183b3aa1336185c93a9217879 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-14 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A cultura da seringueira vem crescendo no Brasil como uma atividade promissora, que ainda importa a maior parte da sua demanda de borracha natural. Existe uma grande expectativa para o crescimento de borracha no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, pois possui terras propícias para plantio de seringueira. Com isso, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo central avaliar questões técnicas e socioeconômicas na produção de heveicultura na Mesorregião do Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. A abrangência do estudo tem como referencia as microrregiões de Cassilândia e Paranaíba, segundo a classificação do IBGE. A metodologia proposta foi realizada com a obtenção de dados secundários do processo produtivo da heveicultura e de dados primários com aplicação de questionários e entrevistas. Foram entrevistados 8 produtores de coágulo dos municípios de Aparecida do Taboado, Cassilândia e Paranaíba. Também foram entrevistados responsáveis por associações e pelas empresas compradoras da matéria prima na região e de outras regiões. No Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, a área colhida com látex coagulado cresceu 47% no período de 2005 a 2015. Verificou-se que o valor investido nos primeiros anos é alto e no custo de produção a despesa com mão de obra na sangria, corresponde cerca de 66% do Custo Operacional Efetivo (COE) e 57% do Custo Operacional Total (COT). A receita só é maior que o custo para o preço do coágulo maior que R$2,26/kg. A análise de investimentos mostrou VPL negativo, TIR de 2,70% e no 18º ano de produção o produtor recupera o capital investido na atividade. Algumas questões devem ser levantadas para não perder competitividade, como investimentos na capacitação de produtores e sangradores e utilização de tecnologias mais adequadas à região. Os desafios são muitos, mas o cultivo da seringueira no Brasil mostra ser uma atividade lucrativa e sustentável, e as perspectivas de crescimento da produção de borracha natural no país são positivas, esperando-se que atenda pelo menos a demanda interna. / The rubber culture has been growing in Brazil and is considered a promising activity, which still imports most of its natural rubber demand. There is great expectation for the rubber growth in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, because it has propitious lands for planting of rubber tree, with this present work has as its central objective to evaluate technical and socioeconomic issues in the production of heveculture in the Meso-region of the State of Mato Grosso The scope of the study is based on the microregions of Cassilândia and Paranaíba, according to the IBGE classification. The proposed methodology was performed with secondary data from the production process of the heveculture and primary data with application of questionnaires and interviews. Eight clot producers from the municipalities of Aparecida do Taboado, Cassilândia and Paranaíba were interviewed. Also interviewed were responsible for associations and companies buying the raw material in the region and other regions. In the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, the area harvested with coagulated latex increased 47% in the period from 2005 to 2015. It was verified that the amount invested in the first years is high and in the cost of production the labor expense in the sangria and Treatment, correspond to about 66% of COE and 57% of TOC. The revenue is only greater than the cost for the clot price greater than R$ 2.26/kg. The analysis of investments showed negative NPV, IRR of 2.70% and in the 18 year of production the producer recovers the capital invested in the activity. Some issues must be raised so as not to lose competitiveness as investments in the training of producers and bleeders, to use technologies more appropriate to the region. There are many challenges, but rubber cultivation in Brazil is proving to be a profitable and sustainable activity, and the country's natural rubber production growth prospects are positive and expected to meet at least domestic demand.
97

Ganho genético e avaliação econômica de sistemas produtivos de gado de corte sob diferentes técnicas reprodutivas e com cruzamento industrial / Genetic gain and economic evaluation of production systems of beef cattle under different reproductive techniques and with crossbreeding

Costa, Henrique José Urzedo 26 April 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Henrique Jose Urzedo Costa (henrique_costa_@hotmail.com) on 2018-05-18T04:11:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Doutorado Final Henrique José Urzedo Costa - Roberto Carvalheiro.pdf: 2944506 bytes, checksum: 96d7646d0dc2f59bf684df53907d7d10 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Alexandra Maria Donadon Lusser Segali null (alexmar@fcav.unesp.br) on 2018-05-22T11:44:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 costa_hju_dr_jabo.pdf: 2944506 bytes, checksum: 96d7646d0dc2f59bf684df53907d7d10 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-22T11:44:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 costa_hju_dr_jabo.pdf: 2944506 bytes, checksum: 96d7646d0dc2f59bf684df53907d7d10 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Biotécnicas reprodutivas e cruzamento constituem importantes ferramentas para o aumento da eficiência econômica e produtiva em bovinos de corte. A determinação da intensidade do uso dessas biotécnicas e o cruzamento, nas diferentes condições ambientais, de manejo e mercado, são fundamentais para otimizar a relação custo-benefício de sua adoção, visando aumentar a rentabilidade do sistema produtivo. Objetivou-se com este estudo estimar o ganho genético e econômico da utilização de diferentes biotécnicas reprodutivas e cruzamento, em um sistema produtivo de bovinos de corte, usando simulações determinísticas. O estudo foi baseado em um sistema de produção com capacidade para 1000 UA (UA = 450kg de peso vivo), adotando pastejo contínuo e taxa de lotação variável. O primeiro cenário foi caracterizado pela inseminação artificial (IA) (sêmen Nelore) e repasse com monta natural (MN) com touros Nelore. Os outros cenários envolveram o uso de ao menos uma dessas técnicas: inseminação artificial em tempo fixo (IATF), fertilização “in vitro” (FIV) e cruzamento de vacas Nelore com touros Angus (sêmen). Os parâmetros econômicos foram extraídos de instituições da região central do Brasil. Foi estimada a porcentagem de produção de animais superiores e o ganho genético, e calculado para o curto (5 anos), médio (10 anos) e longo (15 anos) prazos. Indicadores econômicos como quantidade de progênie produzida, custo total estimado a desmama e ao abate, lucro estimado a desmama e ao abate e taxa de desfrute também foram calculados. Dentre todos os cenários simulados aqueles que utilizaram a IATF são os que apresentaram, na maioria dos casos, lucro líquido superior. O cenário com uso de inseminação artificial convencional (IA) obteve receitas intermediárias, mas também custos intermediários. Os cenários que utilizaram a FIV geralmente apresentaram maior custo de produção agregado e produziram menor quantidade de bezerros. O cenário que utilizou o cruzamento industrial em conjunto com IATF apresentou resultados econômicos positivos, porém registrou menor ganho genético calculado, devido a quantidade de fêmeas Nelore produzidas. Portanto, se for considerada a venda dos animais a desmama, o cenário com uso de inseminação artificial comum (IA) é o mais indicado, pois combina resultados econômicos intermediários com índices de ganho genético intermediários. Para a comercialização dos animais ao abate, a IATF (Nelore) é o cenário mais indicado, pois além de produzir o maior lucro observado (5,47@/ha) (ha = hectare) proporciona valores intermediários de ganho genético (10,60% e 9,70% para machos e fêmeas, respectivamente). / – Reproductive biotechniques and crossbreeding are important tools for increasing economic and productive efficiency in beef cattle. The determination of the intensity of use of these biotechniques and the crossbreeding, in the different environmental, management and market conditions, are fundamental to certify a better cost-benefit relation of its adoption, in order to increase the profitability of the production system. The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic and economic gain using different reproductive biotechniques and crossbreeding for a production system of beef cattle by means of deterministic simulations. The study was based on a production system with capacity for 1000 AU (AU = 992,08 pounds of body weight), adopting the continuous grazing and variable stocking rate. The first scenario was characterized by artificial insemination (AI) (Nellore) and natural mating (NM) with Nellore bulls. The other scenarios involved the use of at least one of these techniques: fixed-time artificial insemination (FTAI), in vitro fertilization (IVF), and crossbreeding of Nellore cows with Angus bulls. The economic values were extracted from institutions of the central region of Brazil. The percentage of production of superior animals and genetic gain were calculated in the short (5 years), medium (10 years) and long (15 years) time. Economic indicators such as amount of progeny produced, estimated total cost of weaning and slaughter, estimated profit of weaning and slaughter and offspring rate were also calculated. Among all the simulated scenarios, those who used the FTAI are those that presented a higher profit in almost all cases. The scenario using conventional artificial insemination (AI) obtained intermediate income, but also intermediate costs. The scenarios that used IVF generally presented higher cost of production and produced smaller numbers of calves. The scenario that used the crossbreeding showed positive economic results, but it registered the lowest genetic gain calculated, due to the smaller quantity of Nellore females produced. Therefore, considering the sale of animals at weaning, the scenario with the use of conventional artificial insemination (AI) is the most appropriate, since it combines intermediate economic results with intermediate rates of genetic gain. In order to commercialize the animals at slaughter, the FTAI (Nellore) is the most appropriate scenario, since it produces the highest observed profit (5.47 at/ha) (ha = hectare) and provides intermediate values of genetic gain (10.60% and 9.70% for males and females, respectively)
98

A lucratividade dos clientes das empresas de serviços contábeis : um estudo de caso da M&M Assessoria Contábil

Souza, Marcone Hahan de January 2014 (has links)
Ao considerar que as empresas de serviços contábeis não prestam somente serviços na área contábil, mas também nas áreas societária, trabalhista e tributária, dentre outras; que clientes de portes semelhantes geram serviços com dificuldades de elaboração diferenciada em razão da forma de tributação, da atividade exercida e de questões de organização interna de cada empresa, entre outros fatores; que muitos dos escritórios contábeis cresceram e hoje são considerados empresas de serviços contábeis e constituem um segmento de grande importância no cenário empresarial brasileiro, faz-se necessário estudos quanto aos custos dos serviços prestados, a fixação do preço de venda destes serviços e a análise da lucratividade de cada cliente. O presente estudo, que tem como objetivo de propor um modelo de mensuração de custos mensais para as empresas de serviços contábeis, com o intuito de viabilizar a análise da lucratividade de cada um de seus clientes. O trabalho parte de uma abordagem administrativa, com enfoque gerencial da empresa de serviços contábeis, identifica custos e despesas, utiliza-se de conceitos de diversos métodos de custeio para direcionar os custos a cada departamento da empresa de serviços contábeis e, consequentemente, a cada cliente usuário dos serviços. Identifica, portanto, os custos, compara com os preços de venda praticados, e analisa, individualmente, a lucratividade de cada cliente da empresa de serviços contábeis. / Considering that accounting services companies do not only provide services in accounting, but also in corporation, labor and taxation, and other fields, considering that clients of similar sizes generate services with special development difficulties due to the way they are taxed, the type of business being carried out, and matters of each company’s internal structure, among other factors, considering that many accounting firms grew and today are considered financial services companies which constitute a segment of great importance in the Brazilian business scenario, studies on the costs of services provided to each client are made necessary as well as fixing the selling price of services and profitability analysis of each client. The present study aims to propose a measurement model of monthly costs for businesses providing accounting services, it intends to facilitate the analysis of the profitability of each client. It comes from an administrative perspective, with a managerial focus on accounting services companies, it identifies costs and expenses and uses the concepts of various defrayment methods to direct the costs to each department of the accounting services company and therefore to each client user of the services. Therefore it identifies the costs, compares them with the sales prices, and analyzes individually the profitability of each client of the accounting services company.
99

Usando redes Bayesianas para a previsão da rentabilidade de empresas

L'Astorina, Humberto Carlos January 2009 (has links)
O presente trabalho emprega Redes Bayesianas para a previsão da rentabilidade de empresas. Define-se como rentabilidade superior as empresa que obtiveram retorno para os acionistas classificados acima de 81,5% em relação às demais. Adota-se a metodologia de seleção dos indicadores proposta por Sun e Shenoy (2007), que seleciona as variáveis explicativas segundo suas correlações com a variável classificadora. Obtêm-se, ao final, dois modelos sendo o primeiro com dois estados de classificação de empresas, superior e inferior; o segundo com três estados (superior mediano e inferior). Assim como Sun e Shenoy (2007), tenta-se validar o modelo Bayesiano com a regressão logística. Constata-se que não é possível afirmar que as média das taxas de sucesso dos dois modelos sejam diferentes ao se prever rentabilidade superior, entretanto a regressão tem melhor desempenho ao se prever rentabilidade baixa. A variável mais significativa tanto para o primeiro quanto para o segundo modelos foi a classificação atual da empresa, ou seja, empresas que figuram em um determinado ano no estado de rentabilidade superior são as mais propensas a repetir o resultado do que as demais. Os resultados apontam taxas de acerto que vão de 14,70% em 1999 (ano da crise cambial quando a rentabilidade média das empresas foi de 2,74%) a 52,94% em 1997 (ano cuja rentabilidade média foi de 11,76%) para o primeiro modelo e de 11,76 % (1999) a 56,60 % (2004, rentabilidade média de 10,76%) para o segundo modelo. Apesar dos modelos ainda não conseguirem alcançar uma estabilidade nas previsões os resultados são animadores quando se desenvolve a hipótese de utilidade para um possível investidor e a expectativa de retorno acumulado, ao longo dos dez anos, passa de 70,37%, que é a rentabilidade média acumulada do período, para 357,07% e 410,10 % para o primeiro e o segundo modelo respectivamente. / This work use the knowledge obtained from Bayesian networks studies of bankruptcy prediction and applied it for forecasting companies' profitability. Higher profitability is defined as the company that had returns for shareholders classified over 81.5% compared to the others. Adopting the methodology of selection of the explanatory variables proposed by Sun and SHENOY (2007) based on correlations among them with the classification variable. As a result it is obtained two models, the first one with two classification states for de classification variable, upper and low, and the second one with three states (upper, middle and low). As Sun and SHENOY (2007), the Bayesian model was compared with a logistic regression. It cannot be say that the average success rates of the two models are different for forecasting higher profitability; otherwise, for low profitability forecasts the regression model was superior. The most significant variable for both the first and for the second model was the previous company's return for the shareholders, i.e. companies that are in a given year in the state of upper profitability are more likely to repeat the resulting the next year. The results show success rates ranging from 14.70% in 1999 (year of the currency crisis when the average profitability of the companies was 2.74%) to 52.94% in 1997 (average return rate was 11.76 %) for the first model and from 11.76% (1999) to 56.60% (2004, average return rate was 10.76%) for the second model. Although the models still fail to achieve stability in the estimates the results are encouraging when developing the hypothesis of possible investor profitability when the expectation of return accumulated over the ten years, range from 70.37%, which is the average profitability accumulated in the period to 357.07% and 410.10% respectively for the first and second model.
100

A lucratividade dos clientes das empresas de serviços contábeis : um estudo de caso da M&M Assessoria Contábil

Souza, Marcone Hahan de January 2014 (has links)
Ao considerar que as empresas de serviços contábeis não prestam somente serviços na área contábil, mas também nas áreas societária, trabalhista e tributária, dentre outras; que clientes de portes semelhantes geram serviços com dificuldades de elaboração diferenciada em razão da forma de tributação, da atividade exercida e de questões de organização interna de cada empresa, entre outros fatores; que muitos dos escritórios contábeis cresceram e hoje são considerados empresas de serviços contábeis e constituem um segmento de grande importância no cenário empresarial brasileiro, faz-se necessário estudos quanto aos custos dos serviços prestados, a fixação do preço de venda destes serviços e a análise da lucratividade de cada cliente. O presente estudo, que tem como objetivo de propor um modelo de mensuração de custos mensais para as empresas de serviços contábeis, com o intuito de viabilizar a análise da lucratividade de cada um de seus clientes. O trabalho parte de uma abordagem administrativa, com enfoque gerencial da empresa de serviços contábeis, identifica custos e despesas, utiliza-se de conceitos de diversos métodos de custeio para direcionar os custos a cada departamento da empresa de serviços contábeis e, consequentemente, a cada cliente usuário dos serviços. Identifica, portanto, os custos, compara com os preços de venda praticados, e analisa, individualmente, a lucratividade de cada cliente da empresa de serviços contábeis. / Considering that accounting services companies do not only provide services in accounting, but also in corporation, labor and taxation, and other fields, considering that clients of similar sizes generate services with special development difficulties due to the way they are taxed, the type of business being carried out, and matters of each company’s internal structure, among other factors, considering that many accounting firms grew and today are considered financial services companies which constitute a segment of great importance in the Brazilian business scenario, studies on the costs of services provided to each client are made necessary as well as fixing the selling price of services and profitability analysis of each client. The present study aims to propose a measurement model of monthly costs for businesses providing accounting services, it intends to facilitate the analysis of the profitability of each client. It comes from an administrative perspective, with a managerial focus on accounting services companies, it identifies costs and expenses and uses the concepts of various defrayment methods to direct the costs to each department of the accounting services company and therefore to each client user of the services. Therefore it identifies the costs, compares them with the sales prices, and analyzes individually the profitability of each client of the accounting services company.

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