京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(社会健康医学) / 甲第19636号 / 社医博第69号 / 新制||社医||9(附属図書館) / 32672 / 京都大学大学院医学研究科社会健康医学系専攻 / (主査)教授 佐藤 俊哉, 教授 今中 雄一, 教授 小西 郁生 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Public Health / Kyoto University / DFAM

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In January of 2012, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter outlined the crime fighting measures that his administration would pursue during his second term as mayor. Included was a plan to introduce a multi-agency crime reduction program, which Philadelphia Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey and District Attorney Seth Williams would co-chair, called GunStat. GunStat was described as a collaborative effort to reduce gun violence through (1) identifying locations with a high incidence of violent crime, (2) pinpointing violent offenders responsible for these crimes, (3) focusing on arresting and prosecuting these offenders for crimes committed at these places, and (4) enhanced monitoring of offenders on probation and parole who are living and/or offending within these locations. In effect, GunStat was designed to target the right people (prolific, violent known offenders) at the right places (hot spots of violent crime). This dissertation is an in-depth, ex post facto evaluation of Philadelphia’s GunStat model as implemented over two phases and two years. It involved both a quasi-experimental research design which employed propensity score matching methods to generate comparisons, and a process-evaluation where several themes, including program implementation, were explored. The results here suggest that GunStat did not reduce crime relative to comparison locations. However, the qualitative data highlighted the importance of informal inter-agency networks that were developed during the course of the intervention, and suggested that GunStat put future collaborations on a solid footing. The implications for criminal justice policy, theory and evaluation design are discussed. / Criminal Justice

This thesis assesses the impact of the Jepara Furniture Value Chain (FVC) project, which was conducted by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to address challenges faced by small-scale furniture producers in Jepara, Indonesia. This assessment focuses on the effect of membership in the APKJ, a producer association started as part of the project. The propensity score for association membership was estimated using unchanging firm and owner characteristics, as well as information recalled about firm operations in 2009 (before the association was formed). Propensity score matching was used to compare outcome variables of association members and non-members. Results suggest that membership in the APKJ does not have a significant effect on profit levels. Using differenced current and recalled marketing and production behaviors as outcome variables with propensity score matching indicates that members have improved their bargaining position and marketing behaviors more than non-members since 2009. Additionally, APKJ members are more likely to have obtained certificates of timber legality / Master of Science

Although originally conceived as an educational intervention for at-risk students, modern career academies have expanded their scope to programs designed to promote critical thinking, problem solving, and analytical skills to be successful in an advanced career path. Through the integration of career and technical education courses and a rigorous, college preparatory academic curriculum, career academies serve as a key piece of a larger strategy for developing a well- prepared STEM workforce. This study focuses on the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies, a state-wide initiative containing programs designed to expand options for the general student population to acquire STEM literacy and other critical skills, knowledge and credentials that will prepare them for high-demand, high-wage, and high-skill careers. Currently, 22 Academies exist serving students across 36 Virginia School Divisions. Using educational administrative data housed within the Virginia Longitudinal Data System, I examined the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies regarding characteristics of student participation and the relationship between Academy participation and high school and postsecondary outcomes. Using multi-level regression modeling, I found that male students, Asian and Hispanic students, and non-economically disadvantage students have a higher rate of Academy participation. After matching students with propensity score matching on demographic and early academic characteristics, I find that Academy participants are more likely to take Algebra II at an earlier grade, enroll in more Career and Technical Education and dual enrollment courses, and declare a STEM major after enrolling at a postsecondary institution. This research provides a valuable new contribution to the study of career academies after such educational programs have undergone a paradigm shift to preparing students for high-demand, high-wage, and high-skill careers. By incorporating propensity score matching and multi-level regression model, I employ a statistically rigorous approach that can serve as important benchmarking of the enrollment and academic outcomes of the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies. / Doctor of Philosophy / Although originally conceived as an educational intervention for at-risk students, modern career academies have expanded their scope to programs designed to promote critical thinking, problem solving, and analytical skills to be successful in an advanced career path. Through the integration of career and technical education courses and a rigorous, college preparatory academic curriculum, career academies serve as a key piece of a larger strategy for developing a well- prepared STEM workforce. This study focuses on the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies, a state-wide initiative containing programs designed to expand options for the general student population to acquire STEM literacy and other critical skills, knowledge and credentials that will prepare them for high-demand, high-wage, and high-skill careers. Currently, 22 Academies exist serving students across 36 Virginia School Divisions. Using educational administrative data housed within the Virginia Longitudinal Data System, I examined the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies regarding characteristics of student participation and the relationship between Academy participation and high school and postsecondary outcomes. Using multi-level regression modeling, I found that male students, Asian and Hispanic students, and non-economically disadvantage students have a higher rate of Academy participation. After matching students with propensity score matching on demographic and early academic characteristics, I find that Academy participants are more likely to take Algebra II at an earlier grade, enroll in more Career and Technical Education and dual enrollment courses, and declare a STEM major after enrolling at a postsecondary institution. This research provides a valuable new contribution to the study of career academies after such educational programs have undergone a paradigm shift to preparing students for high-demand, high-wage, and high-skill careers. By incorporating propensity score matching and multi-level regression model, I employ a statistically rigorous approach that can serve as important benchmarking of the enrollment and academic outcomes of the Virginia Governor's STEM Academies.

Um dos principais desafios da agricultura, e mais especificamente da produção de cana-de-açúcar no Brasil, visando garantir o abastecimento do mercado doméstico e a competitividade nos mercados internacionais, é manter níveis elevados de produtividade. Embora tenha ocorrido um avanço significativo nas técnicas de produção nas últimas décadas, a produtividade desta lavoura se encontra, conforme alguns estudos disponíveis na literatura, aquém do seu nível potencial. Uma das alternativas para contribuir com o aumento da produtividade é a utilização de novas técnicas, como o Manejo Integrado de Pragas, por exemplo. Os trabalhos que avaliaram recentemente a produtividade do setor sugerem que há ganhos para os adotantes dessa técnica. Para o estado de São Paulo, porém, existem poucos estudos empíricos de avaliação de impacto no setor sucroalcooleiro. Portanto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar como a adoção de tecnologia, no caso o manejo integrado de pragas, pode impactar na produtividade da cana-de-açúcar nas Unidades de Produção Agropecuária (UPA) do estado de São Paulo, que constam no Levantamento Censitário de Unidades de Produção Agropecuárias (Projeto LUPA), do Instituto de Economia Agrícola (IEA). Para isto, utilizou-se o método de Propensity Score Matching (PSM) para medir o impacto da adoção tecnológica na produtividade. As estimativas mostraram efeitos positivos e significativos, indicando que o manejo integrado de pragas pode aumentar de 2,9 ton/ha a 4,4 ton/ha, aproximadamente, a produtividade da cana de açúcar. Os resultados indicam, também, que há maiores chances de adotar o manejo integrado de pragas osprodutores que apresentaram maiores níveis de instrução, os adeptos de técnicas de análise de solo, de adubação, mudas fiscalizadas entre outros. / One of the main challenges of agriculture, and more specifically of the production of sugarcane in Brazil, in order to guarantee domestic supply and competitiveness on the international markets, is to maintain high levels of productivity. Although there has been a significant advance in terms of production techniques in recent decades, the sugarcane yield, according to some studies in the literature, below its potential level. One of the alternatives to contribute to the productivity increase is the use of new techniques, such as Integrated Pest Management, for example. Papers that recently evaluated the agricultural productivity suggest that there are gains for the adopters of this technique. For the state of São Paulo, however, there are few empirical studies of impact assessment in the sugar and alcohol sector. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate how the adoption of technology, in the specific case of the integrated pest management, can impact sugarcane\'s productivity in the Agricultural Production Units (UPA) of the State of São Paulo, which were in the Census Survey Of Agricultural Production Units (LUPA Project), published by the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA). For this purpose, the Propensity Score Matching method was implemented to measure the impact of technological adoption on productivity. Results suggested positive and significant effects, indicationg the Integrated Pest Management increases, approximately, the sugarcane productivity between 2,9 ton/ha to 4,4 ton/ha, according the empirical model specification. The analysis also highlighted a greater chance to adopt the integrated pest management by producers with highest levels of education, and the adopters of techniques of soil analysis, fertilization, and supervised seedlings.

[pt] O fomento à competitividade das firmas nacionais é etapa necessária para a construção de um projeto de desenvolvimento econômico e social sustentável de um país. Além dos benefícios macroeconômicos, há um consenso sobre a capacidade, do ponto de vista microeconômico, de que a atividade exportadora traga diversos benefícios para as firmas engajadas. Como reflexo da crescente integração econômica entre os países, o valor das exportações mundiais aumentou 130 por cento nos últimos dez anos. Neste cenário, o Brasil enfrenta na atualidade desafios complexos quanto à sua inserção externa, ligados a algumas questões centrais. Dentre elas, cabe destaque para a sua pequena participação relativa nas exportações mundiais, principalmente quando comparado à evolução dos demais países que compõem o bloco dos BRIC. Adicionalmente existe uma concentração, em termos de valor, das exportações nacionais em um número pequeno de empresas. Em terceiro lugar, há ainda o debate sobre a composição de sua pauta exportadora, em que a presença de commodities primárias vem aumentando de forma significativa no período recente, com redução de quase 40 por cento de valor dos bens manufaturados, tema especialmente preocupante quando se observa que não há indicações no cenário macroeconômico mundial de que esse ciclo de valorização de commodities se reverterá no curto prazo, de modo que seus impactos sobre as exportações nacionais tendem a persistir. Se já é sabido que todos os fatores desse processo não são controlados pelo governo brasileiro, a literatura registra a importância de que políticas governamentais possam ser influentes no desempenho de exportação das firmas. Neste sentido, assim como quase todos os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, o Brasil fortaleceu o seu compromisso com a assistência à exportação e desenvolveram programas completos para aumentar a atividade exportadora das firmas nacionais. Considerando que os recursos governamentais são escassos e exigem o máximo de esforços para a melhor eficiência alocativa, a pergunta relevante, e objeto de estudo desta tese, é avaliar qual o impacto sobre o desempenho exportador das empresas brasileiras exportadoras da participação em programas governamentais de apoio à exportação. A estratégia de pesquisa foi baseada na estimação de efeitos causais do tratamento por meio da técnica de propensity score matching (PSM) para os três programas avaliados: o BNDES-Exim, o Drawback e o Proex Financiamento. Trata-se de um método observacional ainda pouco aplicado na área de Negócios Internacionais, feito sobre um desenho quasi-experimental aplicado a determinação da inferência causal, que exige a utilização de grupos de controle e avaliações ex ante e ex post. Como as informações estavam disponíveis para a pesquisadora ao longo do período compreendido entre 2000 e 2007, foi realizada uma abordagem utilizando modelos em painel como forma de capturar efeitos intrínsecos da firma e da evolução temporal. Os resultados evidenciaram que a participação nos programas teve impacto no desempenho exportador das firmas apoiadas, mas que este impacto se manifestou de forma distinta entre os três programas e os diversos indicadores de desempenho exportador investigados. / [en] Fostering the competitiveness of domestic firms is a necessary step towards the construction of a project of economic and social development of a country. In addition to the macroeconomic benefits, there is a consensus of the microeconomic point of view on the ability that the export activity brings many benefits to firms engaged. Reflecting the increasing economic integration between the countries, the value of world exports increased by 130 percent over the last ten decade. In this scenario, Brazil currently faces complex challenges regarding its external insertion, regarding mainly some central issues. Among them, it is worth highlighting its relative small share in world exports, especially when compared to advances in other countries that make up the BRIC bloc. Additionally there is a concentration in terms of value of national exports in a small number of companies. Thirdly, there is an ongoing debate about the composition of Brazil s export basket, in which the presence of primary commodities has increased significantly in recent years, with a reduction of nearly 40 percent in value of manufactured goods. This issue is of particular concern when one considers there are no indications in the global macroeconomic environment that this cycle of commodities valuation should reverse in the short term, so that its impact on exports tend to persist. No matter it is known that all factors of this process cannot be controlled by Brazilian government, literature shows the importance of government policies that may be influential in the export performance of firms. In this sense, as almost all developed and developing countries, Brazil has strengthened its commitment to export assistance and have developed comprehensive programs to increase the export activity of domestic firms. Considering that government resources are scarce and require maximum efforts to better allocative efficiency, the relevant question, and the specific purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the impact on the export performance of Brazilian exporters from participation in government export assistance programs. The research strategy was based on the estimation of the causal effects of treatment using the technique of propensity score matching (PSM) for the three evaluated programs: BNDES-Exim, Drawback and Proex Financiamento. It is a observational method rarely applied in the field of International Business, built on a quasi-experimental design applied to the determination of causal inference, which requires the use of ex ante and ex post control groups. As data was available to the researcher during the period comprised between 2000 and 2007, panel models were applied in order to capture intrinsic effects of the firm and the temporal evolution. The results showed that participation in the programs had an impact on the export performance of the firms supported, but this impact manifested differently among the three programs and the several indicators of export performance adopted.