With the ever-pressing threat of a climate crisis, the EU has decided to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. This in turn will require the road transportation sector to make a transition from fossil dependent to fossil-free vehicles. Sweden has the objective to become net positive in GHG emissions by 2045. To be on track to reach this goal, the GHG emissions of the domestic transport sector must be reduced by 70% by 2030 compared to 2017’s levels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are leading the way in the transition to fossil-free vehicles. To further springboard the diffusion of EVs, the development of a fully functional EV charging network is required. In order to assist the transition to electric vehicles, this report aims to analyse the development of the public fast charging infrastructure in Norrland and Svealand from now to 2030. Additionally, identify geographical areas where an expansion of the public EV fast charging network is needed to cover the future demand of electrified passenger cars. However, there are two major hurdles in building a fast charging network with full coverage. The first is the high monthly costs of providing fast charging which needs a certain utilisation rate to cover the expenses. The second hurdle is the difficulty to receive a grid connection, in certain areas, at the required power output to be able to provide EV fast charging. Therefore, a semi-mobile battery solution used for EV charging is analysed through a business model perspective. The semi-mobile battery solution requires a lower grid connection hence it could be possible to implement public EV fast charging at a lower monthly cost and to develop the public EV fast charging network in otherwise technical difficult areas. A mixed-method approach including both quantitative and qualitative elements was utilised. Primarily, a study of 10 interviews with respondents from a range of different fields connected to EV charging and batteries was performed in combination with a literature review and document analysis. In addition, existing traffic flow data and data of fast-charging infrastructure, were converged via ArcGIS Pro to illustrate the coverage of the fast charging network. Furthermore, projections of the development of the EV fleet were used in order to forecast the flow of EVs in Norrland and Svealand by 2030. Based on these forecasts the future demand of public EV fast charging was analysed. Resulting in a map showing areas of interest, where there will arise a need to expand the charging infrastructure. These areas are Umeå to Piteå, Lycksele with proximity, Bollnäs to Ljusdal and Leksand to Älvdalen. Additionally, the exiting public fast charging infrastructure was identified to require expansion of existing charging stations due to the increased traffic flow of EVs by 2030. The upgrade of existing stations was further assessed to be required to meet both a permanent and seasonal demand, hence making semi-mobile battery supported charging an attractive solution. Furthermore, the design of a semi-mobile battery supporting public EV fast charging was identified to be influenced by situational aspects and that the location-specific conditions were vital in determining profitability for a specific case. For example, the power output in the EV chargers should be adapted to the specifications of the geographical location and the customer segment identified. The energy storage capacity of the battery should also be designed based on the conditions of the location. A connection to the electricity grid exceeding 0.1 MW was also important since it enables the semi-mobile battery to provide additional services to the electricity grid and hence increase revenue streams. Furthermore, FCR-D Up was determined to be the most suitable complementary service to integrate into the system. One major challenge for the semi-mobile battery, based on a business model perspective, is the high costs for semi-mobile batteries and EV fast charging station hardware. However, these costs are projected to continue to decrease and consequently, improve the opportunities for semi-mobile lithium-ion batteries.

<p>It is widely recognized that a requisite aspect of addressing climate goals is to develop a more sustainable transportation sector. One initiative towards this is the federal administration’s stated goal that 50% of all new vehicle sales will be electric by the year 2030. However, it is a common consensus that this will not occur without significant changes in electric vehicle (EV) adoption trends. In order to meet this goal and significantly diminish transportation greenhouse gas emissions, it is critical to better understand EV adoption at scale. To do this, we must understand at the system level what the progression of adoption will look like and what factors influence that adoption.</p> <p>This problem requires a more granular analysis than has been previously performed. We analyze adoption at the ZIP code level in four US states (CA, CO, NY, WA) with historical data dating to 2011. To understand the progression of adoption, we consider two adoption models (the logistic model and the Bass model) to forecast future EV levels in ZIP codes. We find that the logistic is better for the data that is currently publicly available.</p> <p>We additionally find that EV forecasts must be decomposed into both battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) forecasts. There is sufficient evidence that the adoption processes for these two types of EVs differ.</p> <p>Critically, we extend this analysis to consider the factors influencing adoption. Utilizing the adoption forecasts, we perform spatial regression analyses on the parameters that define the forecast shapes. We examine how multiple sociodemographic, land use, and charging measures correlate with the rate of EV adoption and the lateral shift of early EV adoption.</p> <p>Crucially, we find that multiple measures of charging infrastructure availability correspond with increased adoption; of these, a variation on the distance to fast-charging stations is the most consistent metric across final models. We additionally find that land use type is indeed relevant to adoption. Finally, we are able to corroborate at a granular spatial level numerous sociodemographic variables from the literature.</p> <p>Ultimately, this research can provide valuable insights into adoption trends at a local level and what factors may be best leveraged to promote adoption.</p>

Det finns ett stort behov av elektrifiering av transportsektorn då en offensiv klimatpolitik ställer höga krav på minskade utsläpp från personbilar. För att lyckas med övergången till en fordonsflotta med lägre koldioxidutsläpp, är utbyggnad av den publika laddningsinfrastrukturen en nyckelfaktor. Den publika laddningsinfrastrukturenär ett komplext system där aktörer måste överväga relationer med flera aktörer, och kan därmed betraktas ur ett affärsekosystemsperspektiv. Studien syftar således till att öka förståelsen för publik laddningsinfrastruktur i Sverige utifrån ett affärsekosystemsperspektiv, och hur tillväxtpotentialen kan förbättras för att möjliggöra en framgångsrik övergång till elfordon. Studien är av explorativ karaktär och har samlat in data för att besvara studiens syfte genom en empirisk fallstudie, semistrukturerade intervjuer och en litteraturöversikt. Resultatet indikerar att de största utmaningarna för utvecklingen av publik laddningsinfrastruktur är att affärsekosystemet är fragmenterat, det finns avsaknad av standarder, och det råder brist på kapacitet i det svenska elnätet. Majoriteten av utmaningarna anses däremot vara möjliga att lösa genom samevolution. Som stöttepelare är det laddstationsoperatörens uppgift är att utforma strategier som gynnar samtliga samarbetspartners, och således samevolution. På grund av systemets framväxande karaktär bör laddstationsoperatörer även eftersträva färre, men starkare sammanlänkade, samarbetspartners. Vidare bör beslutsfattare se över regleringar och lagar som inte är anpassade för samhällets elektrifiering, och förslagsvis bevilja undantag för frågor som berör publik laddningsinfrastruktur. Genom bidrag och stöd kan beslutsfattare även möjliggöra självorganisering, och således utveckling av publik laddningsinfrastruktur. I takt med att marknaden mognar bör beslutsfattarnas involvering minska i syfte att öka affärsekosystemets självorganisering, effektivitet och produktivitet. Denna studie bidrar till teorin genom att utifrån ett affärsekosystemsperspektiv öka förståelsen för hur organisationer som är omslutande av ett sammanlänkat system integrerar i sina gemensamma ansträngningar för att uppnå en framgångsrik övergång till elfordon. / An offensive climate policy places a high demand on reducing emissions from passenger cars. Consequently, there is an urgency for an electrified transport sector. The expansion of the public charging infrastructure is a key success factor for the transition toward a vehicle fleet with lower carbon dioxide emissions. However, the public charging infrastructure is a complex system where organisations must consider relationships with companies from different industries and can advantageously be viewed from a business ecosystem perspective. Hence, the purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of the public charging infrastructure in Sweden from a business ecosystem perspective, and how the growth potential can be improved to enable an increased transition to electric vehicles. To fulfill the purpose, an exploratory study has been conducted, and data has been collected through an extensive empirical case study, semi-structured interviews, and a review of existing literature. The results indicate that the lack of capacity in the Swedish electricity network, the fragmented business ecosystem, and the lack of standards, are the biggest obstacles to the development of the public charging infrastructure. These challenges can partly be managed through coevolution. As a keystone player, the charge point operator has a responsibility to effectively create strategies that benefit all partners. Due to the emerging and agile nature of the system, charge point operators should further strive for fewer, and strongly linked partnerships. Furthermore, decision- and policymakers should review regulations and policies associated with the electrification of society, and grant exceptions concerning the public charging infrastructure. In addition, they can enable the development of public charging infrastructure, through grants and support. However, as the public charging infrastructure matures, decision makers' involvement should decrease to increase the business ecosystem's self-organisation, efficiency, and productivity. This study contributes to theory by increasing the understanding of how organisations integrate their joint efforts, to achieve a transition, from a businessecosystem perspective.

The Swedish car fleet is currently amidst a transition of electrification. This increases the need for an extensive charging infrastructure, and thereby smoothly functioning payment methods for charging. At the time being, there are many charging operators in the market that provide their own payment solutions for charging Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-­in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), as the market has developed without any regulations. In consideration of this problem definition, the possibilities and challenges for developing a common payment system was analyzed. With this aim, three key areas were studied: Firstly, the prerequisites for a common payment system in the market was investigated through the historical evolution of such a system in the banking industry. From this, parallels could be drawn to the current market situation of the BEV and PHEV charging industry. Secondly, the problematization was further researched in regard to the customer perspective of the current payment processes. Finally, the prerequisites for a common payment system was analyzed in regard to a company perspective. The three areas were researched through the following three methods: a literary analysis, a questionnaire and a field study at a company. The results show that a need for a unification of payments is present in heterogeneous markets. Therefore, the BEV and PHEV charging market has adequate preconditions for the development of a common payment system considering the innumerable amount of charging operators that currently exist in the market. Furthermore, the results from the questionnaire showed that a majority of BEV and PHEV users are unsatisfied with the current conformation of the payment processes. Lastly, the results show that in regard to the company perspective, there is a satisfactory market climate for entry of a common payment solution considering the business model and technological solution of the analyzed company as well as the customer need. / I takt med att Sveriges bilflotta elektrifieras ökar även behovet av en utbredd laddinfrastruktur och med det ett smidigt sätt att betala för laddningen. I dagsläget tillhandahåller många laddoperatörer egna betalningslösningar för laddning av el­ och laddhybridbilar då marknadens framväxt skett utan reglering. Utifrån denna problemformulering undersöktes möjligheter och utmaningar för ett gemensamt betalningssystem. Under studiens gång undersöktes i detta syfte tre områden: För det första utforskades förutsättningar för ett gemensamt betalningssystem genom att dra historiska paralleller från utvecklingen av ett sådant system inom bankindustrin. För det andra undersöktes problematiseringen utifrån ett kundperspektiv kring dagens betalningslösningar. Slutligen analyserades förutsättningarna för ett gemensamt betalningssystem ur ett företagsperspektiv. Områdena undersöktes genom följande tre metoder; en litteraturstudie, en enkätstudie och en fältstudie på ett företag. Resultaten visar att ett behov av enhetliga betalningar uppstår i samband med heterogena marknader. Därmed har marknaden för laddning av el­ och laddhybridbilar idag goda förutsättningar för ett gemensamt betalningssystem utifrån den variation av laddoperatörer på dagens marknad. Vidare visade enkätresultaten att en majoritet av el­ och laddhybridbilsägare är missnöjda gällande utformningen av dagens betalningsprocesser. Slutligen visade resultaten ur ett företagsperspektiv att det finns goda förutsättningar för introducering av en gemensam betalningslösning utifrån analys av affärsmodell, teknologisk lösning och kundbehov.