This dissertation investigates the commodity currency argument of primary and secondary effects of the terms of trade on exchange rates and real income, respectively. The Johansen procedure of cointegration testing is applied to dynamic models for a set of four developed countries (New Zealand, Australia, Norway and Iceland) and five less developed countries (Colombia, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Venezuela) each against it's major trading partner and the United States. The stationarity of the real exchange rates as well as cointegration between the nominal exchange rates and the ratio of national price-levels (price-ratio) are analyzed for two sets of data (annual and a relatively shorter quarterly) and for two different price measures (GDP deflator and CPI). The hypothesis of the terms of trade effects is investigated by including the terms of trade variable in the models of real exchange rates and models of nominal exchange rates and price-ratios. For developed countries, using annual data, real exchange rates are found to be stationary without the terms of trade in eleven cases, and on including the terms of trade evidence of cointegration is found in three further cases. For the quarterly data of the developed countries, there is some evidence of the real exchange rate being stationary without the terms of trade and some evidence of cointegration between the real exchange rates and the terms of trade for both price indices. Analysis of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the nominal exchange rate and price-ratio without the terms of trade showed some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. On including the terms of trade strong evidence of cointegration is obtained for New Zealand and Austra1ia but not for Norway. Moreover, while evidence for the long-run equilibrium relationships of purchasing power parity are mixed there is strong evidence of improvement in the terms of trade leading to appreciating exchange rates. Also, the terms of trade are found to be exogenous between small countries (New Zealand-Australia). Only quarterly data and CPI are used for the less dev.~loped countries. Results on stationarity of the real exchange rate, the equilibrium relationship between the exchange rates and price-ratio, and the role of terms of trade are again mixed. Finally, the short-run effects of the terms of trade on real income are investigated for New Zealand, Australia and Norway using quarterly data. Dynamic models of first, the real income and terms of trade and real income, terms of trade, and, second, the real exchange rates are analyzed. Validity of the commodity currency argument is evidenced only in some of the three-variable models. / Ph. D.

The purposes of this study were to study the consumers' perceptions and expectations of family finances, business, and buying conditions. / Master of Science

This study uses a random coefficient estimation procedure to test the hypothesis that much of the volatility in the U.S./Canada real exchange rate over the time period 1971 through 1999 is due to the relative price of non-traded goods to traded goods. The model specification used in this study provides estimates of the sensitivity of movements in the U.S./Canada real exchange rate to movements in both the relative price of traded goods and the relative price of non-traded goods to traded goods in each of the two countries. I test for purchasing power parity in each of the two components of the model and address the question of volatility through the examination of the time profile of the respective coefficient estimates. The empirical results support the conclusion that the average value of the coefficient on the relative price of non-traded goods to traded goods component is smaller than that on the relative price of traded goods component. However, purchasing power parity in both components can not be rejected when the period of study is limited to 1971 through 1994. Furthermore, examination of the time profile of the random coefficients on the relative price of non-traded goods to traded goods component suggests that it is much more volatile and, therefore, quite significant in capturing the volatility in U.S./Canada real exchange rate movements. With regard to purchasing power parity in both the traded goods component and the non-traded goods to traded goods component, these results are consistent with the implications of the theory of purchasing power parity. However, they are not entirely consistent with the evidence presented in recent literature. Specifically, evidence presented in recent studies can not support perfect purchasing power parity in either traded goods or non-traded goods and leads to the conclusion that non-traded goods are much less significant, if at all, in the determination of the U.S./Canada real exchange rate. This inconsistency with recent literature is most likely a result of the fact that the random coefficient modeling technique used in this study allows the coefficients to vary over time and, thereby, enables the volatility of both components to be captured in the model. Therefore, given the apparent significance of the relative price of non-traded goods to traded goods, the volatility of this component can logically be expected to significantly contribute to the volatility in the U.S./Canada real exchange rate. / Master of Arts

Sammanfattning Titel: Bostadsrättsbyggande i en lågkonjunktur Ämne: Kandidatuppsats i företagsekonomi, 15 hp Författare: Ebba Fritz & Emmy Rabe Nyckelord: Lågkonjunktur, kapitalstruktur, bostadsmarknaden, hushållens köpkraft Syfte: Syftet med examensarbetet är att undersöka vilka faktorer som påverkar de privata fastighetsbolagens möjlighet att anskaffa kapital för att bygga och sälja bostadsrätter. Studien kommer även att undersöka vilka faktorer som ligger till grund för att färre bostadsrätter byggs i en lågkonjunktur. Metod: I denna studie användes en abduktiv forskningsansats med en kvalitativ metod. Empiri insamlingen baseras på intervjuer från sex respondenter som representerar olika företag som är aktiva i Göteborg. Den teoretiska referensramen har tagits fram med hjälp av relevanta vetenskapliga artiklar, litteratur samt internetkällor med koppling till fastighets- & byggbranschen. Slutsats: Studiens slutsats visar att den rådande marknadssituationen har gjort det svårt för privata fastighetsbolag att anskaffa kapital för att bygga bostadsrätter. Bankernas restriktivitet har visat sig genom skärpta krav på försäljningsgrad vilket har försvårat fastighetsbolagens finansiering av nya projekt. Överskott av osålda bostadsrätter, den förhöjda räntenivån och minskad efterfrågan på grund av ekonomisk osäkerhet har också bidragit till att företagen bygger mindre. Hushållens försiktighet gällande köp av bostadsrätter på grund av höga räntor och psykologiska faktorer har bidragit till återhållsamhet och begränsad investeringsvilja vilket har varit en bidragande faktor till att fastighetsbolagen har haft svårigheter med sin försäljning. Företagen arbetar med strategisk planering för att överleva lågkonjunkturen och positionera sig för framtiden. / Abstract Title: Building condominiums in a recession Subject: Master's thesis in business administration, 15 credits Author: Ebba Fritz & Emmy Rabe Keywords: Recession, capital structure, housing market, household purchasing power Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to investigate which factors affect the private real estate companies' ability to acquire capital to build and sell condominiums. The study will also investigate which factors are the basis for fewer condominiums being built in a recession. Method: This study used an abductive research approach with a qualitative method. The empirical data collection is based on interviews from six respondents who represent different companies that are active in Gothenburg. The theoretical frame of reference has been developed with the help of relevant scientific articles, literature and internet sources connected to the real estate & construction industry. Conclusion: The study's conclusion shows that the current market situation has made it difficult for private real estate companies to acquire capital to build condominiums. The restrictiveness of the banks has been shown through stricter requirements on the sales ratio, which has made it more difficult for the real estate companies to finance new projects. Surplus unsold condominiums, the increased interest rate and reduced demand due to economic uncertainty have also contributed to companies building less. The caution of households due to high interest rates and psychological factors has led to restraint and limited willingness to invest, which has been a contributing factor to the fact that property companies have had difficulties with their sales. The companies work with strategic planning to survive the recession and position themselves for the future.

Professors Bela Balassa and Paul Samuelson (1964) have made a significant contribution to the theories of exchange rate by bringing a new thinking to the most popular exchange rate model, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). They have elucidated the contribution of productivity in the determination of PPP. Accordingly, the emphasis of this thesis is Balassa and Samuelson’s Productivity Bias Hypothesis (PBH) in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the application thereof to South Africa and Switzerland for the period 1994Q1 -2003Q4. The productivity bias hypothesis that explains real exchange rate movements in terms of sectoral productivities rests on two components: firstly, it implies that the relative price of non-traded goods in each country should reflect the relative productivity of labour in the traded and non-traded goods sectors. Secondly, it assumes that purchasing power parity holds for traded goods. The deviation of PPP from the equilibrium exchange rate or the real exchange rate is directly related to the ratio of productivity in a counter country over that of the base country. With inter-country productivity differences believed to be smaller in the service sector than in the sectors producing goods and with the prices of traded goods equalised through arbitrage, the relative prices of non-traded goods (services) would be directly correlated with productivity levels in individual countries. The thesis employs stationarity and cointegration tests in order to determine the presence of long-term, equilibrium, relationship between PPP and productivity variables of the above-mentioned two countries. The overall finding of this thesis is supportive of the productivity bias hypothesis in purchasing power parity concerning the two countries, South Africa and Switzerland. Accordingly, it has been found out that the deviation from equilibrium exchange rate can be explained by differences in productivity. Though currently being challenged by the service sector, South Africa’s manufacturing sector is assuming an important place in the economy. Given the need for improved competitiveness in the manufacturing sector, it is imperative that policy analysis and formulation render increased emphasis on efficiency and costeffectiveness. Such an integrated approach may aid not only in raising productivity but also in managing the intertwined socio-economic challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality. / Thesis (M.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA. To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated. Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona. In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period. The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.

<p>Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile</p><p>exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA.</p><p>To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated.</p><p>Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased</p><p>with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona.</p><p>In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next</p><p>period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period.</p><p>The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.</p>

This Study addressed the inflation accounting problem with respect to Greece. This problem had been unaddressed despite the serious implications it may have on micro- and macro-decision making due to the high and persistent inflation Greece has sustained from 1973 and afterwards. To accomplish the above purpose, the general significance of inflation accounting as well as its specific significance for Greece was established by means of the existing inflation accounting literature and the economic setting of Greece. Following this, the relevance of GPPA rather than CCA to the Greek financial reporting was established by means of correspondence between specific features of GPPA and specific characteristics of the Greek setting. After having established the a priori relevance of GPPA for Greece, the potential usefulness of GPPA to the Greek users of accounts was established as well on an empirical basis. For this purpose the impact of GPPA on Greek accounts was approximated ex ante through detailed restatement procedures and estimation techniques. It was found that inflation has a serious impact on earnings and especially on such important (for decision making) financial parameters as tax rate, dividend payout ratio, and return on capital employed. This impact of inflation on earnings does not seem to be systematic, and hence it cannot be estimated by use of HCA numbers. Therefore, GPPA should be adopted at least on a supplementary (to HCA) basis, if in the future the increase in the inflation rate continues to be as high as it was in the period examined by the study (i.e. 25% or so). In additon to the main conclusion above, other conclusions drawn on the basis of the empirical findings obtained are as follows: 1. The Composite Age Technique used (mainly in the USA) for the restatement of fixed assets and depreciation does not work at all in the Greek case. In contrast, the Dichotomus Year Technique in the first place, and the Equal Additions Technique, in the second place, may be used for adjusting fixed assets not only in developing countries like Greece, but, perhaps in developed countries as well. 2. Operation costs of GPPA can be saved by restating fixed assets and depreciation on an annual rather than monthly basis. 3. Perhaps the Greek government should consider the taxes imposed on corporate net profits in times of high inflation because it was found that the effective tax rate is substantially different from the nominal one. 4. There are serious implications for the Greek businesses in the finding that in real term dividends are paid out of capital rather than out of income. 5. The profitability of Greek companies is low when measured in real terms. Hence, businessmen should exercise every effort to improve it. On the other hand, the Greek government should consider the prices control imposed.

Bakgrund: Globalisering har skapat ett ökat behov för företag att förbli konkurrenskraftiga. Att hantera kostnader effektivt blir allt viktigare i organisationer. Medutgångspunkt i ett fallföretag så har problem kring mätning och jämförbarhetmellan hanteringen av lagerkostnader i geografiskt spridda lager identifierats. I nuläget finns det ingen metod som jämför hur väl hanteringen av lagerkostnader görs i olika länder. De landspecifika egenskaperna skapar olikheter och för att åstadkomma en jämförbarhet så krävs anpassad ekonomistyrning. Syfte: Syftet är att utveckla en kalkylmodell som möjliggör en homogen mätning för olika länders hantering av lagerkostnader. Detta ska kunna skapa en jämförbarhet mellan geografiskt spridda lager. Studien ska utveckla ett komplement till rådande beslutsunderlag som avser stödja en organisations beslutsprocess för lageroptimering. Metod: Här motiveras vilka metodologiska val som gjorts under studiens gång. För att studien ska uppnå sitt syfte så har vi först utvärderat det befintliga styrmedlet för att sen genomföra modellutvecklingen i förhållande till uppställda kriterier för innehålls- och processegenskaper. Materialet för studien har samlats in via det multinationella företaget och genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med tre respondenter inom företaget. Avsnittet motiverar valet av teori och empiri som används och huruvida utvecklingen av modellen i analysdelen ska leda till studiens slutsats. Slutsats: Organisationer har sedan tidigare använt prestationsmätningar för att genom ekonomistyrning kontrollera sina lagerkostnader. Den ökade globalisering har försvårat jämförbarheten givet landsspecifika variabler som påverkar kostnaderna. Genom en kalkylmodellering har ett lagerkostnadsindex utvecklats vilket representerar en standardiserad varukorg. Kapitalstrukturerna neutraliseras och en intern benchmarking möjliggör på så vis att samtliga lagerlokaler kan introduceras att hantera sina lagerkostnader på bästa sätt. / Background: Globalization has created a growing need for companies to remain competitive. It’s becoming more important to manage costs effectively in organizations. Based on a case company problems regarding measurement and comparability of management in warehouse costs between geographically dispersed countries has been identified. Currently there’s no method available for comparison of cost-efficiency of warehouse costs in different countries. The country-specific characteristics create differences. In order to achieve comparability adapted financial control is needed. Purpose: The purpose is to develop a model that enables a homogeneous measurement for management of warehouse costs in different countries. With the intention to make possible comparability between geographically dispersed warehouses. The case study will develop a complement to the existing decision-making. With the aim to support the organization’s decision-making process for warehouse optimization. Method: A motivation for methodological choices made during the study will be presented here. We have first evaluated the existing instrument and then implemented the model in relation to criteria for content- and process characteristics, in order to achieve the aims of the study. Material for the study was collected through the multinational company and by semi-structured interviews with three employees from the company. The section justifies the choice of theory and empirical content used. In the analysis a justification for whether the development of the model leads to the study’s conclusion. Conclusion: Organizations have previously used performance measurements for their financial control of warehouse costs. The increased globalization has complicated the comparability due to country-specific variables that affect costs. Warehouse cost indexes have been developed through a model that takes into account a standardized basket of goods that are relatable to warehouse costs. The capital structure becomes neutralized and internal benchmarking enables such that all warehouse costs can be compared in order to how cost-efficient each and every are.

Magistro baigiamajame darbe išanalizuoti asmeninių finansų valdymo metodai, kurie išsaugo kaupiamųjų piniginių atsargų perkamąją galią ilguoju laikotarpiu. Teorinėje darbo dalyje pateikiama asmeninių finansų samprata bei pinigų vertės išsaugojimo galimybės. Metodinėje dalyje pateikiama asmeninių finansų valdymo ir investavimo analizė bei išanalizuotos finansinės priemonės, kurios išlaiko piniginių atsargų vertę. / Master`s thesis analyzes personal finance management techniques that preserve purchasing power of cumulative cash reserve in the long run. The theoretical part presents personal finance management and investment analysis, deals with the financial instruments, which keep the value of cash reserves.