Esta tesis consiste en tres ensayos independientes. Aunque unidos bajo un título, varían en los temas considerados y método escogido. El primer ensayo presenta un modelo de ciclos reales internacionales con rigideces reales que hoy constituyen una parte considerable de teoría RBC de economía cerrada con mercados completos. En general, estas rigideces tienen menos éxito al resolver problemas de correlaciones internacionales. Encontramos que los costes de ajuste del capital, junto con hábitos de consumo, ayudan a explicar sólo correlación positivo de inversión - en combinación con costes principales de ajuste, hábitos de consumo proporcionan un canal por el que los costes principales de ajuste llegan a ser más grandes que los costes de oportunidad de no invertir en un país más productivo. Además, se demuestra que las rigideces en el mercado de trabajo no ayudan a explicar correlaciones de factores, como por ejemplo el problema de empleo e inversión. Además, mientras tanto los costes de ajuste de trabajo como los hábitos de ocio ambos aumentan la correlación de produccion, sólo los efectos de esto representan fuerzas llevan a la solucion del problema de consumo. En el segundo ensayo se presenta un instrumento útil para banqueros centrales de los países dolarizados en el análisis de adecuación de las reservas internacionales. Una expresión analítica de reservas óptimas es derivada y calibrada para Croacia, con el proposito de evaluar la adecuación de las reservas internacionales croatas. Mostramos que la demanda preventiva para reservas es consecuente con una fuerte tendencia de acumulación de reservas internacionales en los últimos 10 años. Si esta tendencia fue demasiado fuerte o si las reservas fueron más bajas que las reservas óptimas depende de la reacción posible de los bancos matrices durante una crisis. Mostramos que para valores plausibles de los parámetros, el Banco Nacional de Croacia tiene reservas suficientes para luchar contra una posible crisis con la misma magnitud que la de 1998/1999, caracterizada por una crisis bancaria con sudden stop. También mostramos que la utilización de los dos indicadores estándar de reservas "óptimas", la regla Greenspan-Guidotti y la regla de tres meses de importación, puede llevar a una evaluación poco realista de la "optimalidad" de las reservas internacionales en el caso de Croacia. El tercer ensayo explora el impacto de la tasa de cambio de USD/EUR en la inflación en los países de Europa central y oriental (PECO). En particular, analizamos cuál porción de la variación en la inflación en el PECO puede ser atribuida a la tasa de cambio del USD /EUR como un golpe externo. Además, estudiamos hasta qué punto los golpes de la tasa de cambio de USD /EUR influyen en la inflación en el PECO. Un modelo de VAR con restricciones de exogeneidad en bloque es empleado para trazar el impacto de las fluctuaciones de la tasa de cambio de USD /EUR en la inflación en cada etapa por la cadena de distribución. Encontramos que la tasa de cambio de USD /EUR tiene impacto diferente en la inflación en los PECO con regímenes diferentes de tasa de cambio. Nuestro ejercicio empírico muestra que la tasa de cambio de USD /EUR explica la gran parte de la inestabilidad de la inflación en los PECO con tasas de cambio fijas de la moneda doméstica contra el euro. Además, el grado de influencia de la tasa de cambio de USD /EUR en la inflación en el PECO es el más alto en las economías con regímenes de tasa de cambio fijos. Estos resultados pueden ser importantes en el contexto del requisito de estabilidad de precios de los Criterios de Maastricht: además del reto interno de mantener la inflación baja y enfrentarse con las dificultades del proceso de convergencia de precios, los países solicitantes podrían enfrentarse con problemas fuera de su alcance. / This thesis consists of three self-contained essays. Although united under one title they differ in both the topics considered and approaches chosen. The first essay presents an international real business cycles model with real rigidities which today constitute a large part of closed economy RBC theory in a complete markets setting. Overall, these rigidities have less success in resolving international comovement puzzles. We find that capital adjustment costs together with consumption habits help explain positive investment comovement only - in combination with capital adjustment costs, consumption habits provide a channel through which capital adjustment costs become larger than the opportunity costs of not investing in a more productive country. In addition, I find that rigidities in labor market do not help to explain factor comovements such as the employment and investment puzzle. Furthermore, while both labor adjustment costs and leisure habits increase the output correlation, only the effects of the latter present forces toward resolving the consumption cross-correlation puzzle. The second essay offers a useful tool for central bankers in dollarized countries for analyzing foreign reserves adequacy. An analytical expression of optimal reserves is derived and calibrated for Croatia in order to evaluate the adequacy of the Croatian National Bank foreign reserves. We show that the precautionary demand for reserves is consistent with the trend of strong accumulation of foreign reserves over the last 10 years. Whether this trend was too strong or whether the actual reserves were lower than the optimal reserves depends on the possible reaction of the parent banks during a crisis. We show that for plausible values of parameters, the Croatian National Bank has enough reserves to fight a possible crisis of magnitude of the1998/1999 sudden stop with banking crisis episode. We also show how using the two standard indicators of "optimal" reserves, the Greenspan-Guidotti and the 3-months-of-imports rules, might lead to an unrealistic assessment of the foreign reserves optimality in the case of Croatia. The third essay explores the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on inflation in the Central and East European countries (CEEC). In particular, we analyze which portion of the variation in inflation in the CEEC can be attributed to the USD/EUR exchange rate, as an external shock. In addition, we study to what extent USD/EUR exchange rate shocks influence inflation in the CEEC. A VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions is employed to trace the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate fluctuations on inflation at each stage along the distribution chain. We find that the USD/EUR exchange rate has different impact on inflation among the CEEC with different exchange rate regimes. Our empirical exercise shows that the USD/EUR exchange rate accounts for the largest share of inflation volatility in the CEEC with stable exchange rates of the domestic currency against the euro. Furthermore, the extent of the USD/EUR exchange rate influence on inflation in the CEEC is the largest in the economies with stable exchange rate regimes. These results might be important in the context of the price stability requirement of the Maastricht Criteria: in addition to the internal challenge of keeping low inflation and dealing with the difficulties of the price convergence process, the applicant countries could face problems beyond their influence.

Today's modern agriculture is totally dependent on phosphorus to sustain their large yields. Several studies have recently expressed a concern for a future phosphorus deficiency. These studies are based on data for estimated reserves which have been increased with more than a fourfold since 2010. Some argue that these concerns are unfounded, despite the fact that only Morocco account for the bulk of these new reserves. This report provides new forecast for the world phosphorus production based on the new available reserve data. These forecasts are using bell shaped curve models to examine how individual countries' future production of phosphate rock affects a global production peak. Estimates of the size of several reserves are highly uncertain and it is therefore difficult to make an accurate forecast of future phosphorus extraction. Despite this uncertainty, a global production peak is likely to occur within this century. The global production will depend largely on China and Morocco's production as they hold a large share of the reserves and the current production. China's production will probably peak in 10-20 years at current production trend. It is uncertain if Morocco can increase production enough to replace China's production in the future. It is not likely that Morocco will be able to produce as much as would be required to meet the highest scenarios. This is mainly due to a number of bottlenecks in production such as water scarcity, increasing proportion of impurities and a decreasing concentration of phosphorus in the phosphate rock.

No description available.

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model, is widely used in industry to forecast shale gas wells. Left unconstrained, the model often overestimates reserves by a great deal. A minimum decline rate is imposed to prevent overestimation of reserves but with less than ten years of production history available to analyze, an accurate minimum decline rate is currently unknown; an educated guess of 5% minimum decline is often imposed. Other decline curve models have been proposed with the theoretical advantage of being able to match linear flow followed by a transition to boundary dominated flow. This thesis investigates the applicability of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model (SEPD) and compares it to the industry standard, Arps' with a minimum decline rate. When possible, we investigate an SEPD type curve. Simulated data is analyzed to show advantages of the SEPD model and provide a comparison to Arps' model with an imposed minimum decline rate of 5% where the full production history is known. Long-term production behavior is provided by an analytical solution for a homogenous reservoir with homogenous hydraulic fractures. Various simulations from short-term linear flow (~1 year) to long-term linear flow (~20 years) show the ability of the models to handle onset of boundary dominated flow at various times during production history. SEPD provides more accurate reserves estimates when linear flow ends at 5 years or earlier. Both models provide sufficient reserves estimates for longer-term linear flow scenarios. Barnett Shale production data demonstrates the ability of the models to forecast field data. Denton and Tarrant County wells are analyzed as groups and individually. SEPD type curves generated with 2004 well groups provide forecasts for wells drilled in subsequent years. This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%.

Economics Value Added has two major characteristics that differ from the traditional accounting measure. First, the process of counting EVA includes the cost of equity. Second, it corrects distortion of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles¡]GAAP¡^by equity equivalent reserves. The purpose of this study is to test the relationship between performance measure EVA and stock return. Furthermore, we investigate if conbining these two parts provides additional information. In addition, the difference between literature and the study is that we use not only OLS regression model but also Panel Data Model. We choose a more suitable model to analyze our sample data. Our main finding is as follows¡G 1. Since sample data involve cross-section and time-series data. The result of test is that the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data Model is more suitable for sample data. 2. Base on the Fixed Effect Model, the relationship between EVA and stock return is positive. 3. Considering the cost of equity and equity equivalent reserves increases the R-square respectively by 2.408% and 1.915%. It doesn¡¦t increase much power to explain stock return apparently. However, by F test, we find these two independent variables are obviously explainable. In a word, base on the Fixed Effect Model, there is relationship between EVA and stock return. Moreover, the joining of the variables of the cost of equity and equity equivalent reserves can explain contemporaneous stock return a little more.

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2009. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains viii, 81 p. : ill. (some col.), col. maps. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 61-62).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 141-151).

Thesis (M.S.)--Oregon State University, 2003. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 171-174). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Delaware, 2009. / Principal faculty advisor: W. G. Shriver, Dept. of Entomology & Wildlife Ecology. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 117-126).