The costs related to events of losses within non-life insurance are stochastic and a prerequisite of running a successful insurance business is to predict risks and future costs. From both a business- and regulatory perspective, it is of high interest to have a genuine understanding of the precision and the sensitivity of the estimated costs and future risks. This thesis aims to provide an alternative procedure of how to estimate the costs related to the future and, above all, the variance, in the case of dealing with inhomogeneous and decreasing risk. The procedure is based on a separate modeling of the claim frequency and the claim severity, that later can be combined to yield a total cost distribution for a determined time period. The claim severities are modeled based on a parametric and a non-parametric approach and the claim frequencies are modeled with the resampling method bootstrap and by the use of scenarios. The thesis is made in collaboration with the insurance company, Anticimex Insurance, who has contributed with the data as well as expert knowledge related to the actuarial field. The results of the thesis show that the procedure is successful for evaluating estimated total costs distributions and their first and second moments, even in the case of inhomogeneous and decreasing risk. / Kostnader som uppkommer på grund av skador inom skadeförsäkring är stokasiska och en förusättning för att kunna bedriva ett framgångsrikt försäkringsbolag är att kunna prediktera risk och framtida kostnader. Utifrån ett såväl försäkrings- som reglatoriskt perspektiv är det av stor vikt att ha en gedigen förståelse av både precisionen och känsligheten i de skattade estimaten. Denna uppsats syftar till att ta fram ett alternativt tillvägagångssätt till hur kostnader relaterade till framtiden ska predikteras, med fokus på att utvärdera variationen i estimaten, vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk. Tillvägagångssättet bygger på en uppdelning mellan antalet skador och kostnaden för skador, vilka modelleras separat för att sedan kombineras och ge en totalkostnadsfördelning för den avsedda tidsperioden. De historiska kostnaderna modelleras utifrån ett parametriskt- och ett ickeparametriskt tillvägagångssätt. Skadefrekvensen modelleras med hjälp av bland annat samplingsmetoden bootstrap samt genom användandet av scenarier. Uppsatsen görs i samarbete med skadeförsäkringsbolaget, Anticimex Försäkringar, vilka har bidragit med data och expertkunskap inom det aktuariella området. Arbetets resultat visar att det föreslagna tillvägagångssättet är en framgångsrik strategi för att utvärdera de första två momenten av de predikterade totalkostnadsfördelningarna, även vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk.

The aim of this study was to compare the outputs of two modes of citizen participation, the solicitation of written public input, and mail-back questionnaires, on the basis of the opinions and preferences expressed about ORV use and management at Cape Hatteras National Seashore. This comparative analysis was undertaken in order to gain a fuller understanding of the pitfalls and potentialities of survey research in the citizen participation process. The first of two data sets came from a 1978 survey of CHNS residents and visitors on their views about ORV use and possible management actions at the seashore. The second source of data was derived from a content analysis of the written public input on the ORV use and management issue. The Codinvolve System, which was pioneered by the U.S. Forest Service, was used for the content analysis. A test of the reliability of the coding was conducted to evaluate the coding procedure. A phi-test generated coefficients, which when transformed into chi-square values, revealed that the reliability rate was better than 90.0%. The comparison of the two data sets, the survey results, and the Codinvolve output, focused upon the differences between them with respect to the number and character of expressed opinions. Differences between the public input submitted prior to the release of a controversial National Park Service draft ORV management plan and that received after its release were also analyzed. Due to the general scarcity of comments within the public input, chi-square comparisons between the data sets were not feasible. Instead, comparisons of percentages were used to identify the salient differences. Substantial differences were found between the survey and Codinvolve data sets in both the number and character of expressed opinions. However, no substantial differences were found between the pre-plan public input and the post-plan public input. It was noted that the Park Service’s draft ORV management proposals were mentioned in over three-quarters of the post-plan public input. In conclusion, this study suggested that the solicitation of written public input is not an effective citizen participation technique as it fails to educate the public about the various elements and decision parameters associated with an issue. Furthermore, this citizen participation technique provided very limited data on the opinions and preferences of the affected public about ORV use and management. The possible research which survey research can perform in citizen participation and environmental conflict resolution are also discussed. The addition of a workbook or information manual to a mail-back questionnaire was suggested as a means of endowing this citizen participation technique with an educative element. The need for further research on the design and effectiveness of the combined workbook/mail-back questionnaire approach was stressed. / Master of Science

Since the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act, the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act and the National Forest Management Act, the Forest Service has been required to give individuals and organizations access to the decision-making process. However, the Forest Service has been confronted with a greater than anticipated level of dissatisfaction with the Land Management Plans. Because the appeals of the plans are an expense to the Forest Service, both in monetary terms and the frustration which has been generated, the relationship between the participation process and the number of appeals has. come under question. This study proposes that, because public participation and the resolution of appeals are expenses to the Forest Service, the relationship between the two should be analyzed in a cost-benefit analysis framework. However, before an optimal level of public participation can be determined, the relationship between public participation and conflict must be analyzed. Through survey and econometric techniques, the public participation process which occurred during round one of planning and the significance of a number of variables to the probability for conflict were observed. The study described the public participation process which occurred on the National Forests. The results suggest a positive relationship between public participation and the number of existing appeals. Further research is needed, however, to determine the number of appeals which were either avoided or generated due to the public participation process. / Master of Science

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The official custodian of the Cape Peninsula mountain chain, located at the centre of Cape Town, is the Table Mountain National Park (TMNP). This park is South Africa’s only urban open-access park and has been declared a World Heritage Site. This thesis is an anthropological and historical examination of the past and present conservation of the Cape Peninsula . I provide an overview of the relationship between the urban environment and the Cape Peninsula aiming to illustrate the produced character of the mountains and its mediation in power relations. This study of custodianship reveals that protecting and conserving the Cape Peninsula is shaped by the politics of the urban and natural environment as well as by the experience of living in the city. As such, official and unofficial custodianship is informed by class and race differentiations, embedded in the politics of identity, responsive to the local and national political transformations in governance and connected to the urban struggles of the marginalised Capetonians. Furthermore, inherent in the notion of custodianship is the social appropriation of the Cape Peninsula which was shown to produce specific ideological representations of nature. The thesis presents an ethnographic study of Hangberg, a poor neighbourhood situated at the border of the TMNP. There, the encroachments and poaching within the park boundaries is addressed by focussing on the competing discourses between biodiversity, entitlement and heritage. The engagements between the TMNP, the state and Hangberg on the issues of conservation reveal the distinct complexities of running a national park in a city beset with inequalities. My focus on these engagements also illustrates that the manifestation of ‘community’ is a construction contingent upon circumstances which reflect a meaningful and political relationship between identity, citizenship and place, rather than a homogeneous group of people. I conclude with the idea that in attempting to make the park socially and racially equitable, urban conservation ought to begin to recognise its distinct urban character in the larger socio-environmental framework of the city. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die offisiële beskermheer van die Kaapse Skiereiland Bergreeks, geleë in die sentrum van Kaapstad, is die Tafelberg Nasionale Park (TNP). Die park is Suid-Afrika se enigste stedelike en oop-toegangspark en is verklaar as ’n Wêreld Erfenis Gebied. Hierdie tesis is ’n antropologiese en historiese studie van die huidige en geskiedkundige beskerming van die Kaapse Skiereiland. ’n Oorsig van die verhouding tussen die stedelike omgewing en die Kaapse Skiereiland ontbloot die geproduseerde karakter van die bergreeks en die bemiddeling daarvan in magsverhoudinge. ’n Studie van die beskermheerders van die Kaapse Skiereiland toon aan dat die beskerming en bewaring van die bergreeks (of dele daarvan) afhanklik is van die stedelike en nasionale politieke klimaat en die ervaring van ’n stedelike lewe. Sodoende word offisiële en nie-offisiële kuratorskap as klas- en ras-onderskeibaar, ingebed in identiteitspolitiek, verwant aan die plaaslike en nasionale politieke transformasies in die regering, en verbonde aan die stryd van armes in Kaapstad gedefinieer. Verder, inherent aan kuratorskap is die sosiale toe-eiening van die Kaapse Skiereiland wat spesifieke ideologiese voorstellings van die natuur in die stad produseer. Die tesis bied’n etnografiese studie van Hangberg aan, ’n arm woonbuurt geleë op die grens van die TNP. Ek bespreek die onwettige behuising en stropery binne die park se grense deur te fokus op die kompeterende diskoerse tussen biodiversiteit, regte en erfenis. Die onderhandelinge tussen die TNP, die staat, en Hangberg in verband met die kwessies rondom bewaring ontbloot die spesifieke kompleksiteit daarvan om ’n nasionale park in ’n stad geteister deur ongelykhede te bestuur. Hierdie fokus illustreer dat ‘gemeenskap’ manifesteer as ’n konstruksie wat afhanklik is van omstandighede en dui op ’n betekenisvolle en politieke verhouding tussen identiteit, burgerskap en plek, eerder as ’n homogene groep. Ek sluit af met die idee dat in ’n poging om die TNP meer sosiaal- en ras-inklusief te maak, behoort stedelike bewaring die spesifieke stedelike karakter daarvan te erken in die groter sosialeomgewingsraamwerk van die stad.

KwaZulu-Natal’s Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park has historically been prioritized for biodiversity conservation but it also has the oldest protected wilderness area in the country. For 50 years, conservation management, tourism and education within the Imfolozi Wilderness Area have generally been carried out using non-mechanized wilderness principles. The validity of the Imfolozi Wilderness is constantly questioned in terms of efficiency, equity and aesthetics and is consequently subject to a variety of pressures that those different ideologies can exert. The historical development and applicability of the wilderness concept is examined here against evolving South African social and environmental circumstances. Whilst this investigation confirms the findings that colonialism and apartheid resulted in the exclusion of local peoples from protected areas, it also takes note that Imfolozi’s history is characterized by organizations and individuals who ignored the racist laws of the time. Nevertheless, management structures pertaining to both politics and conservation tended to be top-down, such that the Imfolozi Wilderness retained an air of elitism, regardless of attempts to be racially inclusive. Modern trends in protected area management expose the necessity of refining the justification of wilderness areas, to simultaneously recognize localized priorities and the importance of such areas to the planet’s ecological wellbeing. Without attempting to resolve philosophical debates but, at the same time, recognizing their validity, protected area management requirements for the Imfolozi Wilderness are examined in terms of the legal mandate handed to the management agency. This leads to the selection of the Limits of Acceptable Change planning and management system which is implemented as an action research project in conjunction with the Imfolozi Management Team, over a three year period. This involved: defining legal mandates and area issues; defining the zonation categories for the wilderness area; selecting the indicators to measure human impact; compiling an inventory of conditions in the wilderness area; specifying standards; examining alternative zonation category allocations from stakeholders and selecting a preferred alternative. The desired outcome was the establishment of a system in which managers could receive ongoing collaboration from stakeholders and consultatively develop a defendable wilderness management strategy that would meet the legal requirements of the area’s proclamation. Through a descriptive narrative, this dissertation provides an account of the implementation process and discusses to what extent this has been achieved. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.

This research is presented in three sections. Section 1 presents the research report in an Academic Paper format. Section 2 provides a comprehensive literature review and Section 3 describes the research methodology and methods employed. Sustainable management of natural resources is a global imperative. It is particularly significant in a country like South Africa that is blessed with an abundance of biological diversity but faces many socio economic challenges that are associated with developing nations. Toward addressing these issues, diver permit fees were implemented in South Africa in 2005, making it a legal requirement for all scuba divers undertaking a dive in a Marine Protected Area (MPA) to purchase a permit. This pilot study is the first attempt since the inception of the dive permit fees to determine their impact on the demand for diving and the diving industry in the Aliwal Shoal MPA, one of the premier dive destinations in the country. In order to address key questions, qualitative data was gathered during interviews with 12 dive operators active in the MPA and 28 divers that utilised the operators to dive. In addition, independent quantitative data on the number of dive boat launches during the past 20 years was used in conjunction with mean paying diver data obtained from the operators to ascertain the demand for diving at the Aliwal Shoal during the past two decades. Results indicate that were no significant differences (at the 5% level of significance) between paying divers during 2005 compared to 2004 and 2006 [H =.1923366, N= 36, p =0.9083]. Paying diver data for the period 2000 - 2004 were compared to 2005 - 2010 and no significant differences were found at the 5% level of significance (U= 2040, Npost = 72, Npre= 60, p = 0.584981). Diver interviews revealed that only 36% of divers had paid for a permit, representing a loss of R7 438 499 during the past five years, enough to support the current budget of the MPA for 10.6 years. Operator interviews revealed that alternative destinations, economic climate and local competition had the most impact on their businesses, with permit fees having no impact on the 50% of the operators’ businesses. Operators also reported that there was little or no enforcement of the permit fees, 9 of the operators indicated that there has been no improvement in the MPA or its management since the inception of the fees and all were dissatisfied with the current management MPA. Operators and divers complained about the current purchasing and handling practices associated with the permits. Despite offering a world class diving opportunity, the dive operators currently have no incentive to enforce the permit system and due to price pressure in the local market, and have adopted a mute stance on diver permits. Consequently, there has been no significant impact on the demand for diving since the inception of the permits in 2005. The initial hypothesis that the increased costs to divers as a result of the permits would drive down the demand for diving is therefore rejected. If the permits are more strictly enforced, it is likely that more divers may seek alternative destinations due to the perception of poor value as a result of the Sappi Saiccor effluent discharge, existence of shark nets and poor management, in accordance with existing literature. The resultant decrease in demand will be detrimental to the diving industry at Aliwal Shoal. The second hypothesis, that the costs associated with the better enforcement of the MPA regulations-in terms of impacts on the diving industry- might outweigh the benefits, is therefore accepted. All the results produced by this study suggest that authorities may have been too enthusiastic to have all the boxes ticked in order to meet deadlines for international targets for marine conservation and paid little or no attention to lessons learnt from MPAs globally. Every negative aspect highlighted by existing international literature as symptomatic of MPA failure is occurring at Aliwal Shoal MPA, albatrossing it with “paper park” status. Due to the size and scope of this study, the results should be interpreted with caution and not be utilised to guide policy but rather encourage further research.

This study investigates the use of discretion by oil and gas companies in reporting financial performance and oil and gas reserve estimates during times of high political scrutiny resulting from increases in energy prices. Hypotheses tested in prior literature state that companies facing the risk of increasing taxes or new regulations reduce reported earnings to reduce this risk. This study uses a measure of high profitability (rank order of return on assets relative to industry peers) to identify oil and gas companies more likely to manage earnings during the period from 2002 to 2008. Two measures of discretionary accruals (total and current discretionary accruals), and a measure of discretionary depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DDA) were used as indicators of discretion exercised in reporting earnings. Data on oil and gas reserve disclosures was also hand-collected from Forms 10-K to investigate whether managers use reserve estimate revisions to reduce reported earnings through increasing the annual depletion expense. Results suggest that both oil and gas refining and producing firms use negative discretionary accruals to reduce reported earnings. Results also indicate that profitability is an important determinant of the use of negative discretionary accruals by these companies regardless of the time period examined. There is also evidence that oil and gas producing firms opportunistically revise their oil and gas reserve estimates to increase depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense during periods of high oil prices.

A founder population of lion (Panthera Leo) was introduced into a 70 km² privately-owned, wildlife reserve in the Waterberg area of South Africa. The lion and prey species' populations were monitored between 2001 and 2004. In this period, 452 kills were recorded at a mean kill rate of one kill every 2.43 days. The lions killed 11 common prey species. Eland, warthog, kudu, wildebeest and zebra comprised 75 % of the lion's diet. The lions consumed an average of 8 % of the available common prey species population per annum. Initially, the mean ungulate population growth rate was 30.9 %, but this rate declined to -0.8 % during the study period. Significantly more animals were killed in open habitats than in closed habitats. The loss in game value for the study period was over one million Rand. A formula was compiled to quantify the cost versus return aspects of introducing lion. / Nature Conservation / M. Tech. (Nature Conservation)

Thesis (M.Tech.: Information Technology)-Durban Institute of Technology, 2005 iii, iii, 85 leaves / Throughout Africa, growing human populations and resulting loss of wildlife habitat is a critical issue for most animal species. It is more and more common for privately owned small or medium sized farms to reintroduce wildlife on their land and such protected areas are fast becoming the only refuges available to wild animals. However a comprehensive understanding of the complex ecological processes taking place is vital for the effective management of restricted areas and the conservation of biodiversity. Due to the enormous complexity of an ecological system and the long periods of the related dynamics, it is very difficult to analyse the interaction between animals and plant populations without suitable computer models. In this thesis, the dynamics between elephant and trees (a major food source) are considered using computer simulations.

<p>The thesis analyses relationships between ecological and social systems in the context of coastal ecosystems. It examines human impacts from resource extraction and addresses management and governance behind resource exploitation. The main premises are that a lack of ecological knowledge leads to poor ecosystem management and that the dichotomy between social and natural systems is an artificial one. The thesis illustrates the importance of basing resource management on the ecological conditions of the resource and its ecosystem. It also demonstrates the necessity of accounting for the human dimension in ecosystem management and the challenges of organising human actions for sustainable use of ecosystem services in the face of economic incentives that push users towards short-term extraction.</p><p>Many Caribbean coral reefs have undergone a shift from coral to macroalgal domination. An experiment on Glovers Reef Atoll in Belize manually cleared patch reefs in a no-take zone and a fished zone (Papers I and II). The study hypothesised that overfishing has reduced herbivorous fish populations that control macroalgae growth. Overall, management had no significant effect on fish abundance and the impacts of the algal reduction were short-lived. This illustrated that the benefits of setting aside marine reserves in impacted environments should not be taken for granted. </p><p>Papers III and IV studied the development of the lobster and conch fisheries in Belize, and the shrimp farming industry in Thailand respectively. These studies found that environmental feedback can be masked to give the impression of resource abundance through sequential exploitation. In both cases inadequate property rights contributed to this unsustainable resource use. </p><p>The final paper (V) compared the responses to changes in the resource by the lobster fisheries in Belize and Maine in terms of institutions, organisations and their role in management. In contrast to Maine’s, the Belize system seems to lack social mechanisms for responding effectively to environmental feedback. The results illustrate the importance of organisational and institutional diversity that incorporate ecological knowledge, respond to ecosystem feedback and provide a social context for learning from and adapting to change.</p>