One of the greatest hazards from hurricanes is the flooding due to storm surge. Emergency managers traditionally plan for storm surge by looking at the worst possible impact and design their plans accordingly. This is a safe course of action, but can also be a wasted expense if the worst case does not occur. Risk-based planning is a way to incorporate the likelihood or probability of an impact occurring into emergency planning. With respect to storm surge, though, there is very little information regarding probability of occurrence. This research uses data from a commonly accepted storm surge model, SLOSH from the National Weather Service, to develop probabilities of impact. The process and products are prototypes utilizing data from the 2007 SLOSH model run for the New Orleans basin. Products developed include a map of probability, probabilities of exceedance, and a list of model storms that generate surge at given locations.

<p>  </p> <p>Historically, emotional contagion has been studied in a series of contexts, however, there is little to no research on how contagion impacts risk perceptions. This study attempted to bridge the gap between emotional contagion and risk perceptions, specifically focusing on amplification from the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF). To test these potential relationships, I conducted a 2 × 3 experiment that tested the effects of emotional expressions (fear) and media richness on emotional contagion as well as effects on risk perceptions and sharing intentions. In addition, the effects of individual differences such as expressiveness, susceptibility, and individualistic/collectivistic cultural tendencies were examined. Results found no support for the occurrence of emotional contagion, although there were changes in negative emotions between the pretest and posttest which can be attributed to the description of the risk event used as stimulus (i.e., chemical leak). Effects between changes in negative emotions and risk perceptions emerged. In addition, findings show that collectivism and susceptibility also predicted changes in negative emotions. These findings suggest that multiple processes determine if and when people experience emotional change in response to risk events.</p>

Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are indicated in the first-line treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE), which comprises of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). While contemporary guidelines recommend extended-duration anticoagulation after the first diagnosis of unprovoked VTE, the benefits and harms associated with this approach remain unclear across age groups, especially among older adults. Crucially, contemporary estimates of VTE recurrence have not incorporated all-cause mortality as a competing event, the risk of which increases with age. Therefore, we evaluated and synthesized existing literature on of the risk of all-cause mortality by age following completion of limited-duration anticoagulation for a first episode of unprovoked VTE. In addition, we determined the risk of VTE recurrence after completion of limited-duration OAC therapy by age, with death as a competing outcome using data from a prospective cohort study.

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An extant amount of studies has evaluated the impact of soil crop yield. However, only few studies examined the influence of soil yield variability (higher moments). This research evaluates the impact of soil on yield and examines whether corn yield variability (risk) changes with soil types. The study uses the data from the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station annual corn variety trial from 2000-2018 and the PRISM climate group. The two-step Just-Pope (1978,1979) production function is employed. Pooled, random-effects, and fixed-effects models are estimated by OLS and FGLS for the mean equations. The dependent variables of the variance equations are the squared residuals estimated from the mean equations. The results from the study show that average corn yields were higher in loam soils than in clay soils. Also, loam soil was associated with a considerable magnitude of corn yield risk compared to clay soils. The study provides substantial proof of the impact of soil type in corn yield risk. As a results, the RMA of the USDA may integrate soil information in their rating technique to achieve higher accuracy of crop insurance premiums.

This research focuses on the recovery of missing county yield observations within government data, which is used in the ARC-CO program that was authorized in the 2014 and 2018 Farm Bills. The recovered missing county values potentially solve issues with the payment process of ARC-CO, which triggers the ARC-CO payments. I examine multiple climate econometric models and the ordinary Kriging to predict the missing yield values. The results show that the ordinary Kriging is more accurate than any of the climate econometric models. After reviewing actual payments of ARC-CO, I find that farmers with irrigated land are underpaid and farmers of dryland are overpaid by the ARC-CO program as established in the 2014 Farm Bill.

The expiration of the 2002 Farm Bill has presented an opportunity to renovate current farm policy into a program that better meets the demands faced by producers and other interested parties. During the farm bill debates on what to do with subsidy payments, the idea of structuring new programs that better fit a farmer?s needs is gaining momentum. These programs are often revenue based, adding to a more efficient program by combining yield and price risk. The intention of this thesis was to offer an overview of the potential effects of changes in farm programs on both the level and variability of farm revenue. The first step in accomplishing this objective was to create a model that accurately simulates farms from every producing county for which data were available. The proposals modeled include the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), the USDA proposal, and a revenue subsidy wrapped-around an insurance program.

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