Climate change is considered one of the greatest future threats against biodiversity. One predicted consequence of a global temperature increase is that biomes will move against the poles, which will force species to either adapt to an unsuitable habitat or follow their climatic range shift. A common way to assess the future geographical distribution of a species is to predict their future climatic range. However, this excludes factors that could interfere with the species ability to follow their range shift, such as dispersal ability. The importance of expansion-related traits are often assumed rather than quantified. This study investigated if the specialist butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus, living at its northern range limit in south Sweden, will be able to expand north as the temperature increases. The study also explored the importance of six traits on a butterfly’s range shift ability; habitat specialization, growth rate, emigration probability, establishment probability, dispersal vagrancy and dispersal probability. The study found that the butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus will not be able to expand north in Sweden due to low dispersal ability and habitat availability. The most important traits for a butterfly’s ability to expand north in Sweden was growth rate, dispersal ability and habitat generalisation. Specialized butterflies dependent on well managed meadows will have limited success in following their northern range limit, and restoration is necessary to avoid future biodiversity degradation.

Montane forests provide habitat for unique assemblages of flora and fauna that contribute significantly to a region’s biodiversity. Previous work indicates that montane forest ecosystems are exceedingly vulnerable to a host of anthropogenic stressors including climate change, atmospheric deposition, and recreation, to name a few. Montane forests and other high elevation ecosystems are considered to be among the first and most severely impacted by climate change. It is therefore, imperative to evaluate anthropogenic impacts on montane ecosystems and maintain reliable monitoring methods that are capable of tracking potential shifts in the distribution of species dependent on these systems. I surveyed birds at various distances from hiking trails in the White Mountain National Forest from 2006 - 2009 to determine whether existing monitoring programs, all of which are based on trail-centered surveys, are accurately reflecting bird abundance, abundance stability and recruitment. Contrary to previous studies, I found that recreational trails generally did not alter estimates of abundance, recruitment, abundance stability, and detection probability for five species of birds considered to be indicators of montane forest ecosystem integrity in northeastern North America. Therefore, trail-based monitoring programs for montane birds appear to accurately reflect dynamics of bird communities undisturbed by hiking trails. These conclusions were supported by my finding that the daily nest survival of a montane spruce-fir indicator species, blackpoll warbler (Steophaga striata), did not vary as a function of distance from trail. I then used data from the White Mountain National Forest’s montane bird monitoring program from 1994 through 2009 to assess potential shifts in the elevational distribution of montane birds in conjunction with documented habitat shifts in the region. My results provide evidence that low elevation forest birds have expanded their upper elevational boundary while high elevation birds have expanded their lower elevation boundary. These results highlight the complicated relationship between habitat, climate, and other anthropogenic stressors such as atmospheric deposition and that even in the face of climate change other stressors may be playing a significant role in shifts of species distributions. Understanding how climate affects the reproductive ecology of montane organisms is an important step toward unraveling the potential mechanisms by which climate change will alter the distribution of these species. I used blackpoll warbler breeding data from the Green Mountains, VT from 1994 to 2003 to determine if temporal variation in climate influenced blackpoll nesting initiation and found that years with warm Mays and typical precipitation lead to earlier nest initiation. I also examined the effect of spatial variation in climate on blackpoll reproductive ecology and demography. I found a gradient in habitat quality associated with the spatial variation in climate along an elevation gradient. Blackpolls were less abundant, younger, had lower pairing success, lower daily nest survival, higher nest predator occupancy, and lower fecundity at lower elevations. The climatic conditions at these lower elevations represent the climatic conditions predicted to encompass increasingly larger portions of montane areas. Collectively, these findings contribute to filling in a dearth of knowledge regarding management and an understanding of how species dependent on montane ecosystems are responding to climate change.

Species range movement due to changing ocean conditions is occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. Kelp forests are known to be one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, I used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, I found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring movement may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring. When looking at species distributions, an aspect that is often overlooked is species abundance. Drops in species abundance could lead to a species being functionally extinct while still being labeled as present in presence/absence distribution maps. Alternatively, rises in abundance could lead to trophic imbalance without being labeled as an area undergoing change. To understand how species abundance might change in Eastern Pacific kelp forests, I used a Generalized Additive Model framework to understand the relationship between abundance and environmental conditions for a suite of echinoderm species representing a variety functional groups. I then created a series of abundance based distribution models across climate change scenarios using these relationships. These models provide further clarity to how ocean warming may impact several ecologically important marine species as well as giving us a better understanding of where communities may be more vulnerable to restructuring due to altered abundance patterns. In addition to range movement, thermal stress is also expected to alter interaction strength. Thermal anomalies occur in both short-term heatwaves and long-term increases to annual mean temperatures. In ectothermic organisms, increased temperatures should directly increase organism metabolism, but studies looking at metabolic change after heatwaves have shown conflicting results to long-term climate change studies leaving questions as to how species will be impacted on short-term and long-term scales. In eastern Pacific kelp forests, red sea urchins (Mesocentrotus franciscanus) and purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) are the dominant kelp forest herbivores consuming kelp from Baja California to Alaska. I tested the hypothesis that moderate experimental warming would increase herbivory rates over time, with a more pronounced increase occurring during long-term warming in comparison to simulated short-term heatwaves. After simulating both short-term and long-term warming events I found that feeding rates and thermal maxima varied by species and the length of warming event. While short-term heatwave events showed no increase in herbivory rates, longer-term warming led to increased herbivory in both species. Purple urchins demonstrated a lower thermal maximum than red urchins despite purple urchins being generally more thermally tolerant. This study provides valuable insights into the differences in species interaction strength under varying global change scenarios highlighting variation in physiological response to the same thermal stress imposed at different timescales. Integration of these studies allows us to create more holistic predictions about ecosystem wide change—providing information not just on changes to organisms’ biogeographic range but also how interactions and trophic dynamics may change within that range. / Biology

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Lichens are, in most cases, sensitive to anthropogenic factors such as air pollution, global warming, forestry and fragmentation. Two studies are included in this thesis. The first is an evaluation of the importance of old oak for the rare epiphytic lichen Cliostomum corrugatum (Ach.) Fr. This study analysed whether C. corrugatum was limited by dispersal or restricted to tree stands with an unbroken continuity or the substrate old oaks. The results provide evidence that the investigated five populations in Östergötland, Sweden, of C. corrugatum exhibit substantial gene flow, an effective dispersal and a small genetic variation between the sites. Most of the genetic variation was within the populations. Thus, C. corrugatum is more dependent of the substrate old oaks, rather than limited by dispersal. The second study investigated possible range shift of some common macrolichens, due to global warming, from 64 sites in southern Sweden comparing the two years 1986 and 2003. The centroid of three lichen species had moved a significant distance, all in a north east direction: Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl. and Vulpicida pinastri (Scop.) J.-E. Mattsson and M. J. Lai on the tree species Juniperus communis L. (50 and 151 km, respectively) and H. physodes on Pinus sylvestris L. (41 km). Considering also the non-significant cases, there is strong evidence for a prevailing NE direction of centroid movement.

<p>Lichens are, in most cases, sensitive to anthropogenic factors such as air pollution, global warming, forestry and fragmentation. Two studies are included in this thesis. The first is an evaluation of the importance of old oak for the rare epiphytic lichen Cliostomum corrugatum (Ach.) Fr. This study analysed whether C. corrugatum was limited by dispersal or restricted to tree stands with an unbroken continuity or the substrate old oaks. The results provide evidence that the investigated five populations in Östergötland, Sweden, of C. corrugatum exhibit substantial gene flow, an effective dispersal and a small genetic variation between the sites. Most of the genetic variation was within the populations. Thus, C. corrugatum is more dependent of the substrate old oaks, rather than limited by dispersal. The second study investigated possible range shift of some common macrolichens, due to global warming, from 64 sites in southern Sweden comparing the two years 1986 and 2003. The centroid of three lichen species had moved a significant distance, all in a north east direction: Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl. and Vulpicida pinastri (Scop.) J.-E. Mattsson and M. J. Lai on the tree species Juniperus communis L. (50 and 151 km, respectively) and H. physodes on Pinus sylvestris L. (41 km). Considering also the non-significant cases, there is strong evidence for a prevailing NE direction of centroid movement.</p>

The Florida Reef Tract (FRT) extends from the tropical Caribbean up the southeast coast of Florida into a temperate environment where tropical reef assemblages diminish with increasing latitude. This study used data from a three-year comprehensive fishery-independent survey to quantify reef fish spatial distribution along the Southeast FRT and define where the assemblage shifts from tropical to temperate. A total of 1,676 reef fish visual census samples were conducted to assess the populations on a stratified-random selection of sites of marine hardbottom habitats between the Miami River and St. Lucie inlet. Multivariate analyses were used to investigate differences in assemblages among sites. Depth (m), general habitat (reef or hardbottom), and slope (high or low) strata were examined to explain the dissimilarities between assemblages. A general trend of cold-tolerant temperate fish dominated the northern assemblages and more tropical species dominated further south. Seven reef fish assemblage biogeographic regions were determined. In shallow habitats the data clustered in three spatial regions: One south of Hillsboro inlet, one in Northern Palm Beach south of Lake Worth inlet, and one north of Lake Worth inlet. The assemblage in deep habitats mainly split in close proximity to the Bahamas Fracture Zone south of Lake Worth Inlet. The presence of reef habitat aided in splitting the southern assemblage regions from the northern all-hardbottom assemblage regions in both the shallow and deep habitats. Substrate relief was significantly correlated with the differences in the northernmost deep assemblages but did not appear to affect the remainder of the shallow and deep assemblages. This bioregional study creates a baseline assessment of reef fish assemblages of the Southeast FRT for future analyses.

There are number of future projections of species' geographic ranges developed under conditions of ongoing climate change. However, only a few studies have assessed what are the characteristics of species explaining interspecific variability in the projected range shifts. Examination of such relationships is important for development of effective conservation strategies mitigating the effects of climatic changes. For this purpose, I calculated the predicted shifts of European ranges in Czech birds based on maps in A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds and explored relationships between these predicted shifts and several ecological traits. We found significant effects of the type of European distribution and habitat requirements. Concerning the type of European distribution, the largest shift is predicted in the central species and the northern species compared to widespread and southern species. According to the habitat type, the largest shift showed forest birds in contrast to the urban species which will shift slightly. The former pattern is probably attributable to spatial constrains different among these specific groups (central species are less limited compared to widespread species). The latter pattern could be explained by higher sensitivity of forest species to climatic changes...

Prédire les réponses de la biodiversité aux changements climatiques anthropiques est devenu un champ de recherche avec des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux majeurs. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à évaluer les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur un parasitoïde de drosophiles, Leptopilina boulardi, à une petite échelle géographique, le sud-est de la France. L'objectif était non seulement d'examiner l'évolution de la distribution du parasitoïde en réponse à une hausse des températures qu'il fallait préciser à cette échelle géographique, mais aussi d'appréhender les adaptations mises en place dans la zone de progression de l'espèce. Dans un premier temps, l'analyse de données d'échantillonnages et de données météorologiques m'ont permis de mettre en évidence une rapide expansion de l'aire de répartition du parasitoïde vers le nord, à un taux moyen de 90km/décennie, simultanément à une augmentation moyenne de la température de 1,57°C ces 30 dernières années, dans l'aire d'étude. Après avoir identifié les principaux facteurs environnementaux, structurant la répartition spatiale de L. boulardi, j'ai modélisé sa distribution potentielle dans le sud-est de la France, sous conditions climatiques actuelles et pour 2050, pour deux scénarios d'émission de CO2. En 2050, la distribution géographique de L. boulardi devrait considérablement s'étendre vers le nord sous l'effet des changements climatiques. Ensuite, en mesurant plusieurs traits d'histoire de vie selon 4 régimes thermiques fluctuants, j'ai montré que les populations de L. boulardi situées en limite d'aire de répartition sont génétiquement différenciées de celles situées dans l'aire centrale de répartition. Le fait que les populations marginales aient une valeur sélective plus importante à faible température suggère une adaptation locale des parasitoïdes dans la zone de progression de l'aire de répartition. La dernière partie de ce travail de thèse a pour objectif de mieux comprendre le processus de colonisation de L. boulardi. Pour cela, j'ai entrepris le développement de marqueurs RAD-sequencing sur 15 populations de cette espèce, distribuées le long d'un cline de latitude dans le sud-est de la France. Les nombreuses données issues du séquençage Illumina me permettront de connaître la structuration génétique de ces populations. L'ensemble de ces résultats obtenus au cours de ma thèse révèlent la force avec laquelle les changements climatiques peuvent impacter les espèces, principalement celles de haut niveau trophique, en provoquant des changements très rapide de distribution et des modifications génotypiques et phénotypiques permettant une meilleure adaptation locale / Predicting biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climate change has become a field of research with major scientific and societal issues. The main goal of my thesis was to evaluate the impacts of global warming on a Drosophila parasitoid, Leptopilina boulardi, at a small geographical scale, the South-East of France. The aim was not only to examine the change in the distribution of the parasitoid in response to rising temperatures, but also to understand the adaptations associated with this change. First, the analysis of insect sampling and meteorological data allowed me to demonstrate a rapid expansion of the parasitoid range to the north with an average rate of 90km/decade as well as a simultaneous temperature increase of 1.57°C on average over the past 30 years in the studied area. Following the identification of the main environmental factors structuring the spatial distribution of L. boulardi, I fitted a model predicting its potential distribution in the south-east of France, under the current climate and in 2050, for two CO2 emission scenarios. In 2050, the geographical distribution of L. boulardi should significantly extend northward as a result of climate change. Then, by measuring several life history traits under four fluctuating temperature regimes, I have shown that populations of L. boulardi located on the border of the range are genetically differentiated from those in the central range. The fact that marginal populations have a greater fitness at low temperature suggests local adaptation of parasitoids in the area of progression of range. The last part of this thesis aimed to better understand the process of colonization of L. boulardi. For this, I undertook the development of RAD-sequencing markers to genotype 15 populations of this species distributed along a cline of latitude in the southeast of France. Numerous data from Illumina sequencing will allow me to characterize the genetic structure of the populations. All the results obtained in my thesis highlight the force with which climate change may impact species, in particular those of high trophic level, causing rapid changes in distribution along with genotypic and phenotypic changes underlying local adaptation