<p>Background: The difference between the market value and the book value of the companies has dramatically increased. One explanation is that the inflow of capital on the market has increased. Another explanation is that companies have a larger share of intellectual capital. The question is how this has influenced the company-valuator's use of valuation-models? </p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out what relevance the substance valuation model has, the DCF-model has, and also discover new valuation-models, among company-valuators. </p><p>Method: The study was conducted as a qualitative interview-investigation. We interviewed three company-valuators and one company-partner, in four different consulting-firms. </p><p>Results: The study does only pay attention to the company-valuator's point of view. The substancevaluation-model is not frequently used. The DCF-model is the dominant valuation-model. Other used ways to value companies are relative valuation and real option valuation. Relative valuation is frequently used, while real options valuation is rare.</p>

Background: The difference between the market value and the book value of the companies has dramatically increased. One explanation is that the inflow of capital on the market has increased. Another explanation is that companies have a larger share of intellectual capital. The question is how this has influenced the company-valuator's use of valuation-models? Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out what relevance the substance valuation model has, the DCF-model has, and also discover new valuation-models, among company-valuators. Method: The study was conducted as a qualitative interview-investigation. We interviewed three company-valuators and one company-partner, in four different consulting-firms. Results: The study does only pay attention to the company-valuator's point of view. The substancevaluation-model is not frequently used. The DCF-model is the dominant valuation-model. Other used ways to value companies are relative valuation and real option valuation. Relative valuation is frequently used, while real options valuation is rare.

Background: Businesses are traditionally valued with the so called Discounted Cash Flow-model. When valuing newly-started businesses, surrounded by high uncertainty, and whose capital mostly consists of unrealized business opportunities, the Discounted Cash Flow-model needs to be complemented if the total value of the business is to be captured. A valuation with the help of real options is capable of valuing these unrealized opportunities, which often exist in newly-started businesses. The unrealized opportunities are to be found in the business plan of the business, why this needs to be valued to capture the total value of a newly-started business. Purpose: To demonstrate what the use of real options can result in when valuing businesses. Realization: The fulfillment of the purpose was achieved by gathering information from a case company. Thereafter the case company was valued by putting the gathered information and made assumptions into suitable theoretical valuation models. Finally, an evaluation of the result was made. Findings: A valuation model, which includes real options can give a higher value on the business, but to beable to use real options one need to undertake some assumptions. These make the real option value uncertain to some extent. Real options can however function as a strategic tool. Firstly, the estimated option values can serve as indicators as to which decision to undertake within the business. Secondly, using real options can change the business management’s way to look at what creates value.

This thesis questions the connection between knowledge and finance and advances an account that links both in a two-folded way. The first level departs from what separates the two opposite views or alternative explanations about the value of knowledge. The source and essence of the extra profits in information goods or commodities, such as digital media contents and software, featuring increasing returns to scale owing to their peculiar cost structure manifested by a high fixed cost and very low constant marginal cost, is what separates the two views about the value of knowledge. In light of the near-decomposability/modularity hypothesis, the extra profits in information commodities should arise from &#039 / information hiding,&#039 / which is intrinsic to nearly-decomposable systems or modular architecture because they are built on an ignorance on the parts in regard to the other parts and the whole of system. Such (hidden) design information that gives rise to parts or modules creates, at the same time, the future paths of action or (real) options, according to real-options perspective. When the two perspectives are combined, knowledge production, as distinct from subsequent knowledge commodity production, basically becomes an option creation process. Then, it becomes possible to argue that the concurrence of knowledge and finance is not a coincidence at all because the logics of accumulation is no different but almost identical, which is the second level of the two-folded account attempted in this study. The main contribution of this thesis is to build an account that links financialization to knowledge via the notion of modularity. Such an account sees financialization as a reflection and consequence of a value-driven permanent innovation economy developed under the &#039 / IT paradigm&#039 / in order to exploit a surplus peculiar and intrinsic to the modular structure that makes &#039 / information hiding&#039 / an integral part of such architectures since they are by definition built on an ignorance on the parts in regard to the other parts and the whole of system.

This thesis questions the connection between knowledge and finance and advances an account that links both in a two-folded way. The first level departs from what separates the two opposite views or alternative explanations about the value of knowledge. The source and essence of the extra profits in information goods or commodities, such as digital media contents and software, featuring increasing returns to scale owing to their peculiar cost structure manifested by a high fixed cost and very low constant marginal cost, is what separates the two views about the value of knowledge. In light of the near-decomposability/modularity hypothesis, the extra profits in information commodities should arise from &#039 / information hiding,&#039 / which is intrinsic to nearly-decomposable systems or modular architecture because they are built on an ignorance on the parts in regard to the other parts and the whole of system. Such (hidden) design information that gives rise to parts or modules creates, at the same time, the future paths of action or (real) options, according to real-options perspective. When the two perspectives are combined, knowledge production, as distinct from subsequent knowledge commodity production, basically becomes an option creation process. Then, it becomes possible to argue that the concurrence of knowledge and finance is not a coincidence at all because the logics of accumulation is no different but almost identical, which is the second level of the two-folded account attempted in this study. The main contribution of this thesis is to build an account that links financialization to knowledge via the notion of modularity. Such an account sees financialization as a reflection and consequence of a value-driven permanent innovation economy developed under the &#039 / IT paradigm&#039 / in order to exploit a surplus peculiar and intrinsic to the modular structure that makes &#039 / information hiding&#039 / an integral part of such architectures since they are by definition built on an ignorance on the parts in regard to the other parts and the whole of system.

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, ‘jumps’ were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, ‘jumps’ were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

La tesis doctoral se compone de cuatro partes perfectamente diferenciadas y a su vez totalmente conexionadas. La primera parte analiza las vías de expansión de las cadenas hoteleras, su concentración y movilidad así como los factores que han propiciado que los contratos de franquicia se hayan convertido en la estrategia de crecimiento preferida por parte de las cadenas hoteleras con mayor número de habitaciones del mundo.La segunda parte se centra en analizar como afecta a las rentabilidades que obtienen las cadenas hoteleras la utilización de las distintas estrategias de crecimiento.En la tercera parte de la tesis doctoral valoramos a los activos hoteleros no sólo por la rentabilidad que ofrecen sino también por las distintas opciones que tiene un establecimiento hotelero a la hora de elegir su estrategia de crecimiento actual y los cambios que en un futuro puede realizar en dicha estrategia de crecimiento.Finalmente, en la cuarta parte tratan de determinarse cuáles son los factores clave que influyen en el proceso de decisión utilizado por las cadenas hoteleras de Baleares a la hora de elegir su estrategia de crecimiento para llevar a cabo su expansión en la región del Caribe y el golfo de México.

Bakgrund: Länge har paybackmetoden, nettonuvärdesmetoden och andra diskonteringsmetoder haft en ledande ställning när företag gör sina investeringsbedömningar. Metoderna har fått kritik för att inte ta hänsyn till beslutsfattarnas flexibilitet och på så sätt underskatta värdet av en investering. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att utreda i vilken utsträckning svenska företag använder sig av reala optioner och förklara varför metoden inte används i större utsträckning. Vidare syftar uppsatsen till att förklara varför användningen skiljer sig mellan USA och Sverige. Ytterligare ett syfte är att undersöka vilka kapitalbudgeteringsmetoder som används i Sverige idag . Metod: I uppsatsen har främst en kvantitativ metod använts i form av en enkätundersökning. Metoden kompletterades senare med den kvalitativa metoden, då i form av en intervju med en användare av reala optioner. Slutsatser: Payback- och DCF-metoden dominerar fortfarande bland de svenska företagen. Enkätundersökningen fann en användare av reala optioner. Resterande företag är nöjda med sina metoder och anser att reala optioner är en komplicerad metod som inte kan tillföra värde till företaget. / Background: When it comes to investment decisions the most frequently used methods are payback and the net present value model. These methods have been criticized for not taking decision makers flexibility into account and thus underestimate the value of an investment. Aim: The purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent Swedish companies use real options and explain why the method is not used more widely. Furthermore, the study tries to explain why the use of real options differs between U.S. and Sweden. Another purpose is to examine what capital budgeting methods are used in Sweden today. Method: The mainly used method is the quantitative method in form of a survey. This method has been supplemented with the qualitative method, in form of an interview with one user of real options. Conclusions: The payback and DCF method is still predominant among Swedish companies. The survey found one user of real options. All other companies are satisfied with their used method and do not believe that real options can add more value.

In recent years, the use of option pricing models to support IT investment decisions has been proposed in the MIS literature. In this paper, we discuss the practical advantages of such techniques for the selection of a software platform. First, we argue that traditional quantitative approaches to a cost-benefit analysis give only a partial picture of such decision situations: due to the long planning horizon required because of the time-consuming and resource-intensive implementation process, it is not possible to exactly predict which applications will, in fact, run on the system over time. Thus, the investor is faced with the problem of valuing "implementation opportunities". We then compare different valuation techniques for this task and discuss their respective advantages and drawbacks. The practical advantages of employing such models are demonstrated by describing a real-life case study where option pricing models were used for deciding whether to continue employing SAP R/2 or to switch to SAP R/3. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"