Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the original hard copy / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: With the trends of business moving away from large, corporate companies to small, flexible and innovative alternatives, the need to value new companies are becoming important. A new company generally does not have substantial historical data available and it is therefore difficult to determine potential revenue streams and hence accurate valuations. The focus of this study is to find an appropriate method to attempt the valuation of a new company and this is explained by means of a case study. Three basic approaches exist to value companies. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method analyses risk and return to estimate a discount rate and presents the value of the company as a Net Present Value (NPV). Relative Valuation methods compare the fundamentals of a company to that of other companies. Contingent Claim Valuation methods base the value of a company on the fact that decisions may be deferred into the future until more information is evident. The basis of this valuation technique is that of Option Pricing Theory in which the Black-Scholes technique and binomial models are used .: This method is normally used on assets that have optionlike features e.g. equity in a company, natural resource rights, product patents or any decision that may be deferred into the future. Decisions (options) deferred may be identified as growth-, staged-, flexibility-, exit-, learning- and expanding options. This is also known as the Real Option Pricing Theory. According to this model the investment proposal may be mapped as a series of call options (Luehrman, 1998a). The amount of money expended in the project corresponds to the option's exercise price (X), the present value of the asset built or acquired corresponds to the stock price (S), the length of time the company can defer the investment decision corresponds to the option's time to expiration (t) and the uncertainty about the future value of the project's cashflow corresponds to the standard deviation of return on the stock (c). Seven steps are used to obtain the value of the call option and the value is reflected by two option-value metries namely the value-to-cost (NPVq) and cumulative volatility (cr--Jt).The two metries are plotteá on a graph (defined as Options Space) in order to visualize and interpret the results. Mushroom Biomedical Systems developed three highly novel and patented products. The company was valued using the conventional OeF method and valued as a staged investment using the Real Option Pricing Theory according to Luehrman's model (1998a). The values of two products are similar using the OeF and Real Options methods. Most of the investment capital was required during the first phases of these products resulting in the investment of the second phases not holding high risks or value. The value of the third product is significantly higher using the Real Options method compared to the OeF. This is ascribed to the forced delay of phase one. The value of this future decision is worth more than the current decision due to expected new information that might arise. By "creating an option" value is added by forcing management to actively make two decisions about the continuation of the project at a future date. Applying Real Option Pricing Theory suggests inherent value in uncertainty when there is freedom to choose different courses of action in the face of different market conditions. With the OeF analysis the impact of risk is seen as depressing the value of the investment. By contrast, real options show that risk can be influenced through managerial flexibility, which becomes a central instrument to create value. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die beweging van die besigheidswêreld vanaf groot korporatiewe maatskappye na kleiner, buigsame en innoverende alternatiewe het 'n behoefte geskep om die waarde van sulke nuwe maatskappye te kan bepaal. 'n Nuwe maatskappy het tipies nie historiese data beskikbaar nie wat die vooruitskatting van potensiële inkomste strome en dus akkurate waardasies moeilik maak. Die fokus van hierdie studie is die bepaling van 'n toepaslike metode om die waarde van 'n nuwe maatskappy te bepaal en dit word deur middel van 'n gevalle studie verduidelik. Drie basiese metodes bestaan om maatskappye te waardeer. Die Verdiskonteerde Kontantvloei Stroom (VKS) metode gebruik risiko en opbrengs om 'n verdiskonteringskoers te bepaal en reflekteer die waarde van die maatskappy as die Netto Teenswoordige Waarde (NTW). Relatiewe Waardasie metodes vergelyk die fundamentele eienskappe van 'n maatskappy met die van ander maatskappye. Die Gebeurlikheids Waardasie metode koppel waarde aan die feit dat besluite uitgestel kan word totdat meer informasie beskikbaar is. Die basis van hierdie tegniek is Opsie Teorie waarin die Black-Scholes tegniek en binomiaal model gebruik word. Hierdie metode word gewoonlik gebruik waar bates "opsie-tipe" eienskappe besit soos aandeelhouding in 'n maatskappy, natuurlike mynregte; produk patente of enige besluit wat uitgestel kan word na 'n datum in die toekoms. Besluite (opsies) wat uitgestel word kan geïdentifiseer word as groei-, stap-vir-stap-, buigbaarheids-, uittree-, lerings- en uitbreidingsopsies. Hierdie metode staan ook bekend as die Ware Opsie Prysings Teorie. Volgens hierdie metode kan 'n beleggingsgeleentheid voorgestel word as 'n reeks koopopsies (Luehrman, 1998a). Die totale uitgawe word voorgestel deur die uitoefeningsprys (X), die teenswoordige waarde van die bate word voorgestel deur die aandeel waarde (S), die tydperk wat die besluit uitgestel kan word, word voorgestel deur die opsie vervaltyd (t), en die onsekerheid van die bate se kontantvloeistroom word voorgestel deur die standaardafwyking van die opbrengs van die bate (c). Sewe stappe word geneem om die waarde van die koopopsie te bepaal wat uitgedruk word deur twee opsiewaarde komponente naamlik waarde-tot-koste (NPVq) en kummulatiewe volatiliteit ((1'Jt). Die twee komponente word grafies voorgestel (genoem Opsie Spasie) om resultate te visualiseer en te interpreteer. Mushroom Biomedical Systems het drie unieke en gepatenteerde produkte ontwikkel. Die maatskappy is met die konvensionele VKS metode gewaardeer en volgens Luehrman (1998a) se Ware Opsie Prysings model as 'n stap-vir-stap opsie gewaardeer. Die waardes van twee van die produkte is dieselfde met die VKS metode en die Opsie Teorie metode. Die meeste van die kapitaal is tydens die eerste fases van die twee produkte benodig met die gevolg dat die tweede fases nie veel risiko of waarde inhou nie. Die waarde van die derde produk is aansienlik meer met die Opsie Teorie metode in vergelyking met die VKS metode. Dit word toegeskryf aan die gedwonge vertraging van fase een. Die waarde gekoppel daaraan om die besluit in die toekoms te neem is meer werd as om die besluit nou te neem a.g.v. verwagte nuwe informasie. Deur hierdie opsie "te skep" word waarde toegevoeg omdat bestuur gedwing word om aktief twee besluite in die toekoms te neem rakende die voortsetting van die projek. Die gebruik van Ware Opsie Prysings Teorie skep 'n inherente waarde wanneer daar verskillende besluite geneem kan word soos mark kondisies verander. Met die VKS metode word risiko gesien as 'n faktor wat waarde laat afneem. In teenstelling hiermee dui die Ware Opsie Teorie dat risiko beïnvloed kan word deur bestuur se vermoëns, wat 'n belangrike instrument is vir waardeskepping.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study project aims to use "Real Option Analysis" as a tool to translate financial hedging strategies into business strategies that can be used to hedge business projects against their associated risks. Financial investments are often hedged by means of further investment in financial option structures. These option structures give the investor the option (and sometimes the obligation) to change the constituents of his original investment, depending on changes in the external environment. A well engineered option structure will protect the investor against downside risk, while maximizing profits from upside risk. The objective of this study project is then to adapt some of the standard structures to such an extent that they can be used with similar success in the real business environment. This adaptation is done by means of Real Option Analysis - a relatively new theory whereby business uncertainty and managerial flexibility can be evaluated and quantified in a way similar to financial options. It will be seen that a careful application of Real Option Analysis allows one to take a certain business situation, identify the risks inherent to it, find a suitable option structure to hedge against those risks, and modify this option structure so that it can be implemented as a pure business strategy. This analysis is supported by a detailed derivation of a popular Real Option Analysis model, and an in depth discussion of the differences between Real- and financial options as well as difficulties associated with the implementation of Real Option-based strategies. Several examples of specific business situations are analyzed and it is concluded that Real Option Analysis can provide useful, practical and competitive strategies. Above all, the thought process leading to said strategies is deemed to provide powerful insight into the dynamics of the business/project under evaluation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie projek poog om "Real Option Analysis" te gebruik om finansiele immuniserings strategiee om te skakel in besigheids strategiee wat gebruik kan word om besigheids projekte te beskerm teen hul inherente risikos. Finansiele beleggings word dikwels geimmuniseer deur middel van verdere beleggings in finansiele opsie strukture. Hierdie strukture gee aan die belegger die opsie (en soms die verpligting) om die samestelling van sy oorspronklike belegging aan te pas na gelang van veranderinge in die omgewing. 'n Goed ontwerpte struktuur sal die belegger toelaat om sy winste te maksimeer terwyl verliese as gevolg van negatiewe risiko beperk word. Die doel van die studie projek is dan om sommige van hierdie standaard opsie strukture aan te pas sodat dit nie net in die beleggings wereld nie, maar ook in die besigheids wereld toegepas kan word. Hierdie aanpassing word gedoen met behulp van "Real Option Analysis" - 'n relatief nuwe teorie waarvolgens besigheids onsekerhede and bestuurs aanpasbaarhede geevalueer en gekwantifiseer kan word op 'n soortgelyke wyse as finansiele opsies. Dit sal gesien word dat 'n deeglike toepassing van "Real Option Analysis" die gebruiker toelaat om 'n besigheids situasie te evalueer, die risikos daaran verbonde te identifiseer, 'n toepaslike opsie struktuur te vind wat beskerming sal bied teen hierdie risikos, en dan hierdie struktuur aan te pas sodat dit as 'n besigheid strategie toegepas kan word. Hierdie analise word ondersteun deur die afleiding van 'n populere "Real Option Analysis" model, 'n bespreking van die verskille tussen Rieele- en finansiele opsies, sowel as komplikasies wat verwag kan word tydens die implimentasie van 'n strategie gebasseer op Rieele Opsies. Verskeie voorbeelde van spesifieke besigheids situasies word geanaliseer en dit gee aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat "Real Option Analysis" wel sinvolle, bruikbare en kompeterende strategiee kan voorsien. Verder word daar aangedui dat die denk proses wat lei tot hierdie strategiee, 'n kragtige bron van insig in die besigheid/projek dinamika kan gee.

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to address the, by scholars and managers alike, expressed need of development in the project portfolio selection. The research will aim to investigate how the selection of innovation projects portfolios could change if flexibility, and with it uncertainty, were added to the project portfolio selection. The aim is further to investigate how options value can be incorporated as additional value to a portfolio selection decision, with the goal to choose projects that maximize the goal function of the firm. Method: This thesis takes a qualitative approach as such approach is favourable when studying social science. The empirical research is carried out at a large international company conducting in an extensive amount of R&D as well working with innovation projects. The data is collected by unstructured and semi structured interviews with management at the company subjected to the study. Results: The results show, that by adapting the real options framework to a static way of selecting projects, the incorporation of flexibility to the selection process can add economic value by accounting for options value and handle uncertainty. The real options framework will substantiate a dynamic approach to the selection process of innovation projects, as flexibility is changing the selection process from individual project selection to the selection of portfolios. / Syfte: Syftet med följande uppsats är belysa och utveckla det, av forskare och chefer, uttryckta behov av utveckling av projektportföljval. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka hur valet av innovationsprojekt genom portföljvalsmodeller kan förändras om flexibilitet och osäkerhet adderas till beslutsprocessen. Syftet är vidare att undersöka hur ytterligare värde kan inkorporeras i ett beslut, med målet att välja den portfölj som maximerar företagets målfunktion. Metod: Denna uppsats tar en kvalitativ metodansats då ett sådant tillvägagångssätt är fördelaktigt i studier av samhällsvetenskap. Den empiriska undersökningen har bedrivits på ett stort internationellt företag vilket deltar i ett omfattande FoU arbete, samt i stor skala arbetar med innovationsprojekt. Data har samlats in genom ostrukturerade samt semistrukturerade intervjuer med ledningen på företaget. Slutsatser: Resultaten visar att genom att inkorporera reella optioner, i en statisk beslutsprocess, så kan ett bättre beslutsunderlag genereras genom inkluderandet av osäkerhet och värdet av optioner. Ett sådant beslutsunderlag genereras genom att real options adderar flexibilitet till urvalsprocessen. Genom att inkorporera flexibilitet kommer en statisk metod att välja individuella projekt på, skifta till fördel för en dynamisk metod att välja portföljer.

This thesis contains a discussion of four problems arising from the application of stochastic differential equations and real option theory to investment decision problems in a continuous-time framework. It is based on four papers written jointly with the author’s supervisor. In the first problem, we study an evolutionary stock market model in a continuous-time framework where uncertainty in dividends is produced by a single Wiener process. The model is an adaptation to a continuous-time framework of a discrete evolutionary stock market model developed by Evstigneev, Hens and Schenk-Hoppé (2006). We consider the case of fix-mix strategies and derive the stochastic differential equations which determine the evolution of the wealth processes of the various market players. The wealth dynamics for various initial set-ups of the market are simulated. In the second problem, we apply an entry-exit model in real option theory to study concessionary agreements between a private company and a state government to run a privatised business or project. The private company can choose the time to enter into the agreement and can also choose the time to exit the agreement if the project becomes unprofitable. An early termination of the agreement by the company might mean that it has to pay a penalty fee to the government. Optimal times for the company to enter and exit the agreement are calculated. The dynamics of the project are assumed to follow either a geometric mean reversion process or geometric Brownian motion. A comparative analysis is provided. Particular emphasis is given to the role of uncertainty and how uncertainty affects the average time that the concessionary agreement is active. The effect of uncertainty is studied by using Monte Carlo simulation. In the third problem, we study numerical methods for solving stochastic optimal control problems which are linear in the control. In particular, we investigate methods based on spline functions for solving the two-point boundary value problems that arise from the method of dynamic programming. In the general case, where only the value function and its first derivative are guaranteed to be continuous, piecewise quadratic polynomials are used in the solution. However, under certain conditions, the continuity of the second derivative is also guaranteed. In this case, piecewise cubic polynomials are used in the solution. We show how the computational time and memory requirements of the solution algorithm can be improved by effectively reducing the dimension of the problem. Numerical examples which demonstrate the effectiveness of our method are provided. Lastly, we study the situation where, by partial privatisation, a government gives a private company the opportunity to invest in a government-owned business. After payment of an initial instalment cost, the private company’s investments are assumed to be flexible within a range [0, k] while the investment in the business continues. We model the problem in a real option framework and use a geometric mean reversion process to describe the dynamics of the business. We use the method of dynamic programming to determine the optimal time for the private company to enter and pay the initial instalment cost as well as the optimal dynamic investment strategy that it follows afterwards. Since an analytic solution cannot be obtained for the dynamic programming equations, we use quadratic splines to obtain a numerical solution. Finally we determine the optimal degree of privatisation in our model from the perspective of the government.

published_or_final_version / abstract / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The development of suitable long term flood risk intervention strategies is a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication but in addition complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of interventions, the area with the highest economical benefit and the most opportune time for implementation. All of these elements pose difficulties to decision makers. Recently, there has been a shift in the current practice for appraising potential strategies and consideration is now being given to ensure flexible, adaptive strategies to account for the uncertain climatic conditions. Real Options in particular is becoming an acknowledged approach to account for the future uncertainties inherent in a flood risk investment decision. Real Options facilitates adaptive strategies as it enables the value of flexibility to be explicitly included within the decision making process. Opportunities are provided for the decision maker to modify and update investments when knowledge of the future state comes to light. In this thesis the use of Real Options in flood risk management is investigated as a method to account for the uncertainties of climate change. Each Intervention strategy is purposely designed to capture a level of flexibility and have the ability to adapt in the future if required. A state of the art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time. In addition to Real Options, this thesis also explores the use of evolutionary optimisation algorithms to aid the decision making process when identifying the most appropriate long term strategies. Although the risk analysis tool is capable of quantifying the potential benefits attributed to a strategy, it is not necessarily able to identify the most appropriate. Methods are required which can search for the optimal solutions according to a range of performance metrics. Single and multi-objective genetic algorithms are investigated in this thesis as a method to search for the most appropriate long term intervention strategies. The Real Options concepts are combined with the evolutionary multiobjective optimisation algorithm to create a decision support methodology which is capable of searching for the most appropriate long term economical yet robust intervention strategies which are flexible to future change. The methodology is applied to two individual case studies, a section of the Thames Estuary and an area on the River Dodder. The results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous while the outputs provide decision makers with supplementary knowledge which previously has not been considered.

The aim of this study is to evaluate an alternative socio-economical valuation method (i.e., Hybrid Real Options, HRO) to the traditional benefit cost method (CBA) for the evaluation of investments within Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The proposed alternative method will be evaluated by the use of a case study where it is applied and compared to the results of the traditional method. The case study evaluates the socio-economical effects of an investment in Variable Speed Limits along a section of the motorway E18. The results of the study shows that the choice of evaluation methods affects both the investment strategy and the estimated socio-economical benefits of the investment. Using the HRO method yields twice as high socio-economical benefits compared to the CBA method. The main reason for this being that HRO account for risk and uncertainties wheras CBA only accounts for the most probable outcome of the investment. The choice of method is a complex task that involves many stakeholders however a more critical approach to the choice of socio-economical evaluation method is advocated based on the results of this study.

[pt] A demanda por commodities mineral e energético no mundo vem sofrendo um forte aumento nos últimos anos causado principalmente pelo crescimento da economia chinesa. No setor de minério de ferro movimentos de aquisições e consolidações são cada vez mais freqüentes pois grandes grupos siderúrgicos buscam, por meio de aquisições, garantir o fornecimento de seu principal insumo e se proteger contra a forte variação do preço no mercado e, por outro lado, empresas de mineração, ao se consolidarem, se protegem contra essas ameaças. A avaliação de novos projetos de mineração é fundamental para identificar o valor da empresa ao considerarmos que uma empresa de mineração é um portfólio de projetos. Dada as características de alguns projetos de mineração, o uso da Teoria de Opções Reais permite uma avaliação mais eficiente do valor destes projetos em função das flexibilidades gerenciais e incertezas de mercado. Esta dissertação procura rever e aplicar os conceitos de opções reais utilizando a probabilidade neutra ao risco e processo estocástico com drifts de crescimento da variável de incerteza através de um projeto de mineração hipotético com a opção de expandir sua capacidade em um prazo de 5 anos. / [en] The world demand for mineral and energetic commodities is rising strongly in the last years due mainly to the growth of the Chinese economy. In the iron ore industry movements of merger and acquisition are more frequent therefore steel producers groups are looking to, by means of acquisition, guarantee their iron ore supply and to protect against the huge volatility of price in the market. On the other hand mining companies are protecting their business against these threats by merger operations. In this context, the valuation of new mining projects is essential to identify the enterprise value, considering that a mining company is a portfolio of projects. Given the characteristics of some mining projects, the use of the Real Option Theory allows a more efficiently valuation be done in presence of flexibilities and market uncertainties. This thesis intent to apply the concepts of real option, considering the risk neutral probability and stochastic process with growth drift of the variable of uncertainty, thru a hypothetic mining project, which holds a capacity expansion option that can be exercised in the five year time.

[pt] A crescente preocupação ambiental e dependência energética de combustíveis fósseis têm aumentado a importância do desenvolvimento de combustí­veis renováveis e menos poluentes. Dentro deste cenário, o Biodiesel é uma alternativa que apresenta diversas vantagens em relação ao diesel fóssil, ou Petrodiesel, além de possuir propriedades fí­sicas semelhantes. Neste trabalho mensurou-se o valor que advêm da flexibilidade existente para o produtor de Biodiesel da escolha do insumo utilizado na sua produção através da Teoria de Opções Reais. Os resultados encontrados indicam que essa opção de escolha de insumos tem valor quando se assume que os preços futuros destes insumos seguem processos estocásticos como o Movimento de Reversão à  Média e o Movimento Geométrico Browniano, o que pode ser suficiente para viabilizar o uso de insumos que não seriam recomendados pela análise tradicional. Como esses processos estocásticos geram diferentes resultados, a seleção do modelo e dos parâmetros utilizados são fatores importantes na valoração desta classe de projetos. / [en] There has been a growing concern in recent years about the quality of our environment and dependence on fossil fuels to supply the energy needs of the world, which has created an interest in the development of renewable and less polluting energy sources. One of such alternatives is the Biodiesel, which has many advantages relative to the fossil based Diesel, or Petrodiesel, aside from being physically equivalent. We use the real options approach to determine the value of the managerial flexibility that a Biodiesel plant has to switch inputs among different grain commodities. Our results indicate that the option to choose inputs has value if we assume that the future prices follow stochastic processes such as Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion Models, and can be sufficient to recommend the use of input commodities that would not be recommended the traditional valuation methods. Given that each of these models provides different option values, the choice of model and parameters has a significant impact on the valuation of this class of projects.

O objetivo desta tese de doutorado foi investigar o efeito da flexibilidade na tomada de decisão em uma usina sucroenergética, sob a abordagem da teoria de Opções Reais com simulação de Monte Carlo. Para isso, partiu-se de uma análise econométrica das séries de tempo dos preços do etanol hidratado, da gasolina veicular e do açúcar VHP (Very High Polarized). Dessa análise foi possível verificar que as séries de preços do etanol e do açúcar são modeladas pelo movimento de reversão à média. Além disso, constatou-se que no curto prazo ocorreu uma transmissão de preços do açúcar e da gasolina para o preço do etanol. Por outro lado, a série de preços do açúcar não foi influenciada pelas demais e a da gasolina não foi influenciada pela do açúcar e muito pouco pela do etanol. Nesse sentido, percebe-se que não houve uma interdependência simultânea entre os preços desses três produtos. Adicionalmente, para o restante da análise, foi considerada uma usina fictícia com a hipótese de contar com a flexibilidade para escolher a proporção a ser produzida entre açúcar e etanol, definida como opção de conversão e também com a opção de parada temporária, com a qual é possível interromper a produção na usina, a fim de reduzir perdas caso os custos de produção ultrapassassem os preços do produto a ser vendido. Sob tais hipóteses, buscou-se quantificar o efeito marginal das contribuições das flexibilidades gerenciais na tomada de decisão em investimentos sucroenergéticos. Pelos resultados encontrados, a tomada de decisão que leva em conta as flexibilidades identificadas consegue aumentar em até 88,14% o valor esperado do VPL de uma usina sucroenergética e reduzir o risco de o VPL ser negativo. Assim, esse trabalho propõe que as flexibilidades gerenciais trazem maiores retornos para usinas sucroenergéticas. Não só, mas também, essas flexibilidades mitigam os efeitos de crises no setor. / The goal of this PhD Thesis was to investigate the effect of flexibility in decision making in a sugar cane plant under the Real Options theory with Monte Carlo simulation approach. For this, we started with an econometric analysis of the time series of the prices of hydrous ethanol, vehicular gasoline and VHP (Very High Polarized) sugar. From this analysis it was possible to verify that the ethanol and sugar price series are modeled by the mean reversion movement. In addition, it was found that in the short-term sugar and gasoline prices were transmitted to the price of ethanol. On the other hand, the series of sugar prices was not influenced by the others and that of gasoline was not influenced by sugar and very little by ethanol. In this sense, it can be seen that there was no simultaneous interdependence between the prices of these three products. In addition, for the rest of the analysis, it was considered a fictitious plant with the hypothesis of switch output option and also with the temporary shutdown option. Under these hypotheses, we sought to quantify the marginal effect of the contributions of managerial flexibilities in decision-making on sugar cane investments. Based on the results obtained, decision-making that considers flexibilities can increase the expected value of NPV of a sugar cane plant by up to 88.14% and reduce the risk of NPV being negative. Thus, this work proposes that managerial flexibilities bring greater returns to sugarcane plants. Not only that, but also, these flexibilities mitigate the effects of crises in the sector.