民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。 影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。 本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論： 首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。 / In the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy. There are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices.

Les territoires et les paysages littoraux sont soumis à des risques naturels de mieux en mieux identifiés et croissants (tempêtes, submersions…), notamment sous les effets du changement climatique, dont les manifestations, pas seulement eustatiques, auront d’autres conséquences sur les paysages. Comment, dans une logique proactive, tirer parti des modifications de paysages tout en limitant, contrôlant, voire corrigeant les dérives induites par la hausse du niveau marin sur les littoraux ? L’objectif est de montrer qu’il est possible de s’ajuster à ces risques par la prise en compte des paysages et par la pratique d’une gestion plus douce et raisonnée des aménagements côtiers. Après avoir établi un bilan argumenté sur la prise en compte du paysage dans les stratégies aujourd’hui mises en œuvre pour réduire les risques d’inondation et de submersion, la thèse évalue comment le projet de paysage, processus holistique de conception et de partage de visions à long terme, peut-il être un outil de réduction de la vulnérabilité du territoire et de sa société. Puis, la thèse se focalise sur la Camargue, territoire deltaïque emblématique dont les processus naturels et sociaux ont permis d’inventer une société et des paysages créateurs de richesses dans un équilibre dynamique face aux risques permanents d’inondation et de submersion. Cependant, avec, entre autres causes, celle du changement climatique, cet équilibre stratégique est remis en question et nécessite d’élaborer les hypothèses d’une autre Camargue. Ainsi, dans une dimension exploratoire, la thèse propose une illustration argumentée de nouveaux modèles de développement et d’ajustement du système camarguais. La double prise en compte du paysage et du changement climatique et les premiers résultats de l’étude de dépoldérisation des Bas-Champs Picards, nous amènent à revendiquer la mise en œuvre d’une politique de renouvellement littoral en tant que réponse aux problèmes des territoires côtiers d’aujourd’hui et plus encore de demain. / Coastal territories and landscapes are submitted to increasing yet better identified natural risks (storms, flooding, etc.), especially under the effects of climate change. Its reflections, the eustatic ones among others, have various consequences on the landscape. How is it possible, in a proactive reasoning, to take advantage of the lanscape alterations at the same time as limitating, controling and why not correcting the excesses due to the sea level rise on the coasts ? The aim is to show that it is possible to adjust to these risks upon taking landscapes into account and managing the coastal structures a lighter and better thought-out way.An argued assessment on the way the landscape is taken into account in current strategies used to reduce the flooding risks, is followed with an evaluation of the way the landscape project, a holistic process of designing and sharing long term visions, can be used as a tool to reduce the vulnerability of both the territory and its society. Then, the thesis focuses on the emblematic Camargue delta, a territory which natural and social processes allowed to develop a society together with lanscapes creators of wealth in a dynamic balance considering the permanent flooding risks. However, keeping in mind, among other causes, that of climate change, this strategic balance is being questioned and needs the elaboration of hypotheses for another form of Camargue. Thus, in an exploratory dimension, the thesis suggests an argued illustration of new models of development and adjustment for the system of Camargue. Taking into account both the landscape and climate change, the first results of a study on managed realignment in Bas-Champs, Picardie, lead us to a demand for the implementation of a coastal regeneration policy as the answer to the issues of coastal terriories for today, and even more for tomorrow.

Thesis (M. of Military Art and Science)--U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, 2007. / The original document contains color images.

本文以「新現實主義」(neorealism)，或被稱為「結構現實主義」(structural realism)做為研究途徑，從國際政治系統層次體系，探究美國在二十一世紀後，所進行的東亞軍力調整。本文首先檢視二十一世紀後東亞戰略環境，以及美國的兩位總統，小布希(George W. Bush)，以及歐巴馬(Barrack Obama)，的面對這樣的東亞安全環境，採取的戰略與政策儘管有不同，但同樣在軍事及外交上，強化與東亞國家之關係，藉以建構一個對美國有利的東亞安全環境，藉以面對來自崛起中國的挑戰。接著，本文將探究美國與中國之關係，藉以釐清美國在進行東亞軍力調整中，如何處理中國的因素後，探討美國在二十一世紀後，在東亞進行的軍力調整的原因、方針以及概況，以及美國的東亞盟邦在軍力調整後所扮演的角色，並探究美國在東亞軍力整編時所面對的困境與挑戰。 本文發現，二十一世紀美國進行東亞軍力調整之時，也反應了其東亞外交與安全戰略，以及美國建構一個以「美日同盟」為主軸的安全戰略體系已經形成，並由美國的其他東亞盟邦輔助支援。然而，美國的東亞軍力調整，也面臨了許多困難與挑戰，包括美國東亞盟邦，甚至美國自身的問題等。 最後，本文也建議未來可針對抑制中國軍事能力的戰略，以及台灣在美國東亞安全戰略可以扮演的角色進行研究。 / The research approach used in this dissertation is neorealism (structural realism). From the system of level in the international politics, this dissertation explore how the United States conducted its military realignment in East Asia. Firstly, this dissertation will examine the security environment of East Asia in the twenty-first century. Although two U.S. Presidents, George W. Bush and Barrack Obama, adopted different policies when facing such an East Asia security environment, they both strengthened relations with Asia-Pacific countries militarily and diplomatically. They intended to construct an East Asian security environment favorable for U.S. interests so that U.S. can face the challenges from the rising China. Later on, this dissertation will explore U.S.-Chinese relations to clarify how U.S. handle Chinese factors in its military realignment in East Asia. Besides, this dissertation will explore the reasons, policies, how U.S. proceed its military realignment, and the roles played by U.S. allies and partners. Finally, this dissertation will examine the difficulties and challenges that U.S. will have faced in its military realignment. This dissertation finds that U.S. military realignment in East Asia reflects its diplomacy and security strategy. Meanwhile, an U.S. security strategy based on U.S.-Japan alliance has established, with the support from other U.S. allies and partners in East Asia. However, the U.S. indeed faces difficulties and challenges, including problems from its allies and even the U.S. itself. Lastly, this dissertation suggest some research directions in the future, including a strategy which can suppress Chinese capabilities, and the role that Taiwan can play in the comprehensive U.S. East Asia security strategy.

"A paper submitted to the faculty of the NWC in partial satisfaction of the requirements of the JMO Department." / Title from title screen (viewed June 10, 2008). "February 14, 2005." Faculty advisor: Douglas Hime. "ADA464898"--URL. Includes bibliographical references (p. 24-27).

The chronology of the Late Bronze and Early Iron Age Near East is currently a topic of intense scholarly debate. The conventional/orthodox chronology for this period has been assembled over the past one-two centuries using information from King-lists, royal annals and administrative documents, primarily those from the Great Kingdoms of Egypt, Assyria and Babylonia. This major enterprise has resulted in what can best be described as an extremely complex but little understood jigsaw puzzle composed of a multiplicity of loosely connected data. I argue in my thesis that this conventional chronology is fundamentally wrong, and that Egyptian New Kingdom (Memphite) dates should be lowered by 200 years to match historical actuality. This chronological adjustment is achieved in two stages: first, the removal of precisely 85 years of absolute Assyrian chronology from between the reigns of Shalmaneser II and Ashur-dan II; and second, the downward displacement of Egyptian Memphite dates relative to LBA Assyrian chronology by a further 115 years. Moreover, I rely upon Kuhnian epistemology to structure this alternate chronology so as to make it methodologically superior to the conventional chronology in terms of historical accuracy, precision, consistency and testability.