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Household flood risk mitigation is an important component of Integrated Flood Risk Management. Voluntary household decisions about whether or not to structurally mitigate or insure can directly and indirectly influence vulnerability to the flooding of a community. Serious games can augment existing data collection methods in the flood risk context by operating in the space in between stated and revealed preference, through observing decisions as opposed to asking abstract hypothetical questions, while allowing for complete control over experimental conditions. We look to answer the question of which individual and contextual factors contribute to the decision to mitigate against floods. We gather household decision-making data using a serious game role-play experiment named the Decision Game. Participants spent about 20 minutes making decisions about where to live and how to distribute limited income, given geographical information, including flood risk, about the city. We use a generalized linear mixed modelling approach to analyze the data. Among other findings, we see that experiencing an in-game flood had a strong positive effect, compared to a much weaker effect of a participant having experienced a real-life flood; our key observation is that incentivizing flood risk mitigation should be done quickly following a flood event. We find that real-life low-income individuals were no less likely to implement in-game mitigation measures than their higher-income counterparts, suggesting that subsidies to address an income barrier may be an effective method of encouraging low-income household mitigation. We apply the model to a case study of Calgary, Alberta finding that the insurance market could maintain cross-subsidization after a flood, making insuring higher risk areas more feasible. Moreover, we find that Calgarian policymakers should be encouraged to limit subsidy coverage to high-risk areas to avoid inefficient use of funds in low-risk areas which were projected to have the clear majority of program uptake. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc) / We develop a research tool to help understand what drives people to protect themselves against flooding. This tool is a computer-based role-playing game experiment in which people take on the role of a homeowner tasked with choosing where to live and how to distribute their income. We log the decisions that people make in the game and use statistical analysis to figure out which factors are important in driving the decisions to insure against floods and to invest in protective structural measures. We find that experiencing a flood in the game has the largest positive effect on these decisions. The results of the model are used to inform a case study where we investigate potential outcomes of policy decisions in Calgary, Alberta. The development of this research tool and the findings contributes to optimizing policies to improve flood risk management through household interventions.

Railroad is one of the primary modes for transporting hazardous materials (hazmat). Given the dangerous nature of the hazmat, risk mitigation in the railroad transportation is the need of the hour. Hence, we explore the idea of equitable distribution of risk in the railroad network. We propose the subsidy policy to be considered by government to induce favourable routings of the hazmat shipments. The government's objective is to achieve risk equity in the network, whereas, the carrier's cost effective approach leads to increased risk in low-cost service-legs. To model this, we formulate the problem as a bi-level mixed integer program. We derive the single level mixed integer linear program (MILP) and test it on the rail infrastructure in midwest United States using state-of-the-art solver CPLEX 12.8.0. The instances with upto 25 shipments on the network are solved efficiently on a local machine. We use high performance computing resource available at Graham cluster of Compute Canada facility to solve the large instances with 50 shipments on the network. We show the effectiveness of the subsidy policy as a risk mitigation tool for the railroad hazmat transportation, and review the efficiency of the solution methodology to solve the MILP for the network. Moreover, the results demonstrate the economic feasibility for the government to allocate the budget for the subsidy. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a class of safety-critical systems that are capable of decision-making and operate with little or no human intervention. For such complex systems designed to function in diverse operational domains such as rain, snow, freeway, urban roads, etc., system safety is paramount. Management of the system's safety throughout its life-cycle, from the conceptualization stage to the end of the lifecycle, is of primary importance. We describe a revision of functional safety standard ISO 26262 to support autonomous vehicles and the underlying electronic/electrical control architecture. There is a need to modify the Automotive Safety Integrity Levels (ASILs) defined in the ISO 26262 as "Controllability", a factor in determining an ASIL, is no longer applicable; the driver is no longer in a position to control the vehicle. The vehicle has taken over the responsibility of evaluating the environment and determines its next course of action to complete its current mission. These decisions have a tremendous impact on the overall safety of the system during a hazardous event and can be the difference between a successful journey and a traffic incident. To better enable the designers of such systems, we introduce a new method to assess the functional safety and derive safety goals, which are the top level safety requirement. We present a new metric-Risk Mitigation Factor to assess the decision making capability of the vehicle and to replace controllability in the ASIL definition. The case study presented highlights the advantages of using the introduced metric in defining safety goals for the autonomous vehicle. / Master of Science

Infrastructure projects, based on the Build-Operate-Transfer, (BOT), method, have been of interest to governments of developed and developing countries for some time, resulting in their worldwide use. Using the BOT method enables governments to reallocate risks and rewards to the private sector for larger infrastructure projects throughout the projects' operating life. In order to implement a BOT infrastructure project successfully, one of the essential requirements is to carry out a thorough analysis of risks relating to the project including the social, economic, environmental, political, legal, and the financial aspects. Due to the fact that the type of risk study required for large-scale projects is so sophisticated, and therefore expensive and time consuming, the government, due to lack of expertise and time, often obtains a project viability study from the private sector. This can cause problems in that the private sector may incur financial losses or even bankruptcy, unless the host government guarantees compensation to the losers of the bid. Because all parties have different targets which they wish to achieve from the project, a may conflict arise and cause lengthy negotiations, sometimes lasting for years which often result in the death of the project. The greatest opportunity for a successful outcome for a BOT project is obtained when the extensive efforts and costs involved in the risk study process are shared by all parties. The responsibility of the decision maker is to identify, understand and analyze the many risk factors both, qualitative, (linguistic in nature) and quantitative, that will affect funding, procurement, developing, construction and operation, before proceeding with the build stage of the project. Firstly, it is necessary to evaluate the quantitative Risk Factors subjectively, and list them in order of importance. Secondly, conduct an evaluation of the qualitative factors and since the consideration of qualitative factors is subjective, the decision maker will often limit the number of factors being evaluated possibly resulting in inconsistent results. This study proposes a decision framework, which would be useful in determining the influence of the qualitative Risk Factors on the project management of BOT infrastructure projects. A methodology is provided to enable the identification of interrelationships between the Risk Factors and their influence on the project. Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques, which model the relationships between the Risk Factors, a validation of this approach will be sought using a decomposed evaluation method and also information obtained from three existing case studies, (the Channel Tunnel, Sulaibiya Wastewater Treatment and Reclamation Plant and Marsa Allam Airport). The results of the decomposed approach were compared to experts' holistic evaluations for the same case studies mentioned above. The findings indicate that the decomposed approach showed a strong correlation to the holistic approach. An evaluation of the risks for the Sulaibiya Wastewater Treatment and Reclamation Plant study is provided and suggestions made to highlight risks attached to such a project before it is actually undertaken. Using the decomposed approach enables the decision maker to see the contribution of each risk compared to all of the risks in the total project and will help to determine and subsequently minimize or preventing any risk factors and so considerably improving the risk management of the project.

Abstract Background: Consumer interest and demand for healthy and ecologically produced local food has led to a high market demand that local production cannot meet. Product attributes of perishability and short life cycles ensure that even local supply chains are challenging to manage. This increases potential for risks occurrence in an Organic Food Supply Chain (OFSC) especially with unreliable supply of products. Small and established food retailers import organic food products from across the world. Custom delays, high transport charges, commodity costs and regulatory requirements are associated with food imports. This renders OFSCs complex and vulnerable to disruptions or breakdowns that require appropriate strategies to identify and mitigate risks. Purpose: To gain an overall insight of risks mitigation in OFSCs. The purpose of this thesis is to assess risks affecting suppliers and retailers of organic food and propose risk mitigation strategies to prevent or minimise supply chain breakdowns. Method: This qualitative study utilizes a case study strategy involving seven case firms and seven research respondents. Data is collected through semi-structured interviews and documentary secondary data. The analysis of the empirical findings is conducted by cross analysing empirical findings of respective case firms and then emerging patterns are formulated into a general framework. Conclusions: Low conversion rates of farms for organic production, high costs of investments and regulatory requirements have contributed to prevailing production risks that partly cause low organic output. Other risks identified that could disrupt the food chain under study include sourcing, warehousing, demand, price, financial and institutional risks. Mitigation strategies proposed include production procedures, CAP, supply chain flexibility, supply chain visibility, certification, diversification of retail channels, brand image building, horizontal & vertical cooperation and buyer-supplier relations.

Research questions 1. What kind of risks in the supply side of HUAWEI supply chain can be identified? 2. How can supply side risks of HUAWEI supply chain be assessed? 3. How can supply side risks of HUAWEI supply chain be mitigated? Purpose This paper describes supply side risks in HUAWEI in China, the types of risks identified, provides guidelines for assessment of these risks and suggestions for mitigation. Methodology In order to answer above research questions empirical data have been collected through observations, interviews at with logistics managers of HUAWEI in China, and from the official documents, annual reports and authentic web pages of the HUAWEI. Theoretical framework has been built through scientific articles, peer reviewed journals, authentic web based documents, and textbooks. The information is then assessed and analyzed, which result in conclusion and recommendations for the company. Conclusion There can be four major risks identified on the supply side. Manufacturing risk, logistics risk, information risk and inventory risk. The manufacturing risk include risks related to production, skill, and quality. The logistics risk further include delivery risk, lead time risk, and transportation risk. Production risk and skill risk are critical and they can be avoided by enhancing risk awareness, evaluating production feasibility, strengthen staff training, investing in high skills, strengthening R&D, and analysis of the external environment. The quality and inbound delivery risks can be reduced through supplier inspection and establishing good supplier relations. Lead time risk and inventory risk can be reduced by vendor based managed inventory system and mass customization. Meanwhile, transportation risk can adopt risk transfer strategy. The information risk can be reduced by increasing information sharing levels and adopting modern communication technologies.

Through a case study conducted in India, of a Swedish fashion company, this thesis aims to investigate how Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) can mitigate risks in a global fashion supply chain. By investigating CSR activities carried out by a Swedish fashion brand with its suppliers in India, the thesis shows both benefits and obstacles regarding CSR implementation. Data has been collected mostly through semi-structured interviews in both Sweden and in India with CSR managers, Indian production office, suppliers and through factory observations. The data has been analyzed with theories regarding risks in the supply chain and CSR related theories such as the triangle of Carroll. By investigating benefits and obstacles regarding implementation with suppliers, risks connected to social issues in the supply chain are highlighted. The observations showed the problematic issue of a gap between CSR communication in Sweden and how the implementations are interpreted locally. The research shows that CSR, if implemented correctly, mitigates certain risks mainly connected to brand reputation and health and safety among workers. It is further concluded that there are major issues in implementing CSR further down the supply chain than the first tier of suppliers. Lack of transparency through the supply chain challenges the company’s sustainability work and exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Therefore, the Swedish fashion company is still at risk from its supply chain. / Program: Textilekonomutbildningen

Earthquakes in Turkey, among all natural disasters claim the highest losses in terms of human lives, material and economic assets. Most of the lives are lost within the collapsed buildings, and most of the material and economic losses are again directly related to the functional capacities of the building stock. The method of risk assessment in the existing building stock is therefore an essential step in the maintenance of safer urban environments. Analysis of risks in the building stock is usually claimed to demand surveys of engineering studies. Yet risk determination studies by planners could prove not only a more comprehensive approach, but less time consuming and cheaper. As carried out by engineers, most of safety studies in the building stock are directly related with estimating the probability of collapse and damage in individual buildings. It is necessary to recognize the need for analysis of the building stock not only in terms of structural robustness, but as part of a mitigation plan, taking into consideration all sources of hazards and the urban pattern, densities, landuse, forms of ownership, social features, management capacities, and local opportunities. Risky buildings determined by a simple set of criteria within a comprehensive planning context are comparatively explored in this study to observe the level of fit with those determined by engineering surveys. The case of Fatih District in Istanbul provides an opportunity to carry out comparative analyses. It indicates that a &lsquo / perfect fit&rsquo / can not be achieved if for nothing but due to the disregard of multi-hazard areas, hazardous activities and other vulnerabilities like timber buildings other than reinforced concrete in the district by the engineering survey. Several trials indicated that there is a trade-off between ratio of fit and the total volume of relative vulnerability assumed. Ratios like 70% or more could make the planning approach a preferable method owing to its nature of least time-consuming and costly alternative in the determination of what constitutes risk in any urban area. Ultimate assessment could be made with the occurance of the earthquake itself.

Context and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.