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In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detailed simulations and explorations of candidate future states of these systems help reduce a complex design problem into a comprehensible, manageable form where decision factors are prioritized. While there are still fundamental criticisms about using modeling and simulation, the emerging challenge becomes ``How do you best configure uncertainty analyses and the information they produce to address real world problems?” One such analysis approach was developed in this thesis by structuring the input, models, and output to answer questions about the risk and economic impact of technology decisions in future aircraft programs. Unlike other methods, this method placed emphasis on the uncertainty in the cumulative cashflow space as the integrator of economic viability. From this perspective, it then focused on exploration of the design and technology space to tailor the business case and its associated risk in the cash flow dimension. The methodology is called CASSANDRA and is intended to be executed by a program manager of a manufacturer working of the development of future concepts. The program manager has the ability to control design elements as well as the new technology allocation on that aircraft. She is also responsible for the elicitation of the uncertainty in those dimensions within control as well as the external scenarios (that are out of program control). The methodology was applied on a future single-aisle 150 passenger aircraft design. The overall methodology is compared to existing approaches and is shown to identify more economically robust design decisions under a set of at-risk program scenarios. Additionally, a set of metrics in the uncertain cumulative cashflow space were developed to assist the methodology user in the identification, evaluation, and selection of design and technology. These metrics are compared to alternate approaches and are shown to better identify risk efficient design and technology selections. At the modeling level, an approach is given to estimate the production quantity based on an enhanced Overall Evaluation Criterion method that captures the competitive advantage of the aircraft design. This model was needed as the assumption of production quantity is highly influential to the business case risk. Finally, the research explored the capacity to generate risk mitigation strategies in to two analysis configurations: when available data and simulation capacity are abundant, and when they are sparse or incomplete. The first configuration leverages structured filtration of Monte Carlo simulation results. The allocation of design and technology risk is then identified on the Pareto Frontier. The second configuration identifies the direction of robust risk mitigation based on the available data and limited simulation ability. It leverages a linearized approximation of the cashflow metrics and identifies the direction of allocation using the Jacobian matrix and its inversion.

A reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro introduziu uma nova categoria de clientes no mercado consumidor. Os chamados Clientes Livres, ao contrário dos Clientes Cativos, podem formalizar a aquisição de energia elétrica para atendimento dos requisitos de seu processo produtivo, através de contratos bilaterais, onde os prazos, os preços e os volumes são livremente negociados entre os agentes. A segmentação imposta pelas reformas do setor promoveu a competição na atividade de comercialização, repercutindo em novas responsabilidades para os agentes setoriais, com oportunidades para a busca de resultados financeiros, mas, por outro lado, com riscos associados que requerem adequado gerenciamento. Conseqüentemente, o estabelecimento de contratos neste ambiente evidencia a importância da adoção de estratégias de hedge adequadas para mitigar os riscos de exposição financeira dos Clientes Livres ao Mercado de Curto Prazo. Sob essa perspectiva, o texto aborda a formação de preços contratuais no curto e longo prazos, propõe critérios de risco para aferir as estratégias mais promissoras, de acordo com o perfil do consumidor, de modo a otimizar a obtenção de energia no Ambiente de Contratação Livre, contemplando, também, o efeito da recente possibilidade da comercialização dos excedentes de energia elétrica, como forma de flexibilização contratual para esta categoria de consumidores. / The power sector reforms in Brazil introduced a new sort of consumers in the electricity market. The Free Consumers are able to choose their suppliers and freely negotiate contractual terms. The restructuring process of electricity industry promoted the competition into the retail sales subindustry. It gave new responsibilities to market participants and also potential opportunities to reduce its energy costs. On the other hands, the Free Customers are requested to manage their own risks. It is important therefore the establishment of contracting strategies to hedge against price risks. As consequence, the purpose of this study is to address a methodology to implement short and long-term contract pricing and evaluate the risks associated with its strategies. Moreover, the work identifies the contracting decisions to optimize electricity costs accordingly to customer´s needs. Finally, it is presented a study on contract flexibility where an opportunity could be given to such kind of consumers, making possible to resell part of their electricity contracts.

A reestruturação do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro introduziu uma nova categoria de clientes no mercado consumidor. Os chamados Clientes Livres, ao contrário dos Clientes Cativos, podem formalizar a aquisição de energia elétrica para atendimento dos requisitos de seu processo produtivo, através de contratos bilaterais, onde os prazos, os preços e os volumes são livremente negociados entre os agentes. A segmentação imposta pelas reformas do setor promoveu a competição na atividade de comercialização, repercutindo em novas responsabilidades para os agentes setoriais, com oportunidades para a busca de resultados financeiros, mas, por outro lado, com riscos associados que requerem adequado gerenciamento. Conseqüentemente, o estabelecimento de contratos neste ambiente evidencia a importância da adoção de estratégias de hedge adequadas para mitigar os riscos de exposição financeira dos Clientes Livres ao Mercado de Curto Prazo. Sob essa perspectiva, o texto aborda a formação de preços contratuais no curto e longo prazos, propõe critérios de risco para aferir as estratégias mais promissoras, de acordo com o perfil do consumidor, de modo a otimizar a obtenção de energia no Ambiente de Contratação Livre, contemplando, também, o efeito da recente possibilidade da comercialização dos excedentes de energia elétrica, como forma de flexibilização contratual para esta categoria de consumidores. / The power sector reforms in Brazil introduced a new sort of consumers in the electricity market. The Free Consumers are able to choose their suppliers and freely negotiate contractual terms. The restructuring process of electricity industry promoted the competition into the retail sales subindustry. It gave new responsibilities to market participants and also potential opportunities to reduce its energy costs. On the other hands, the Free Customers are requested to manage their own risks. It is important therefore the establishment of contracting strategies to hedge against price risks. As consequence, the purpose of this study is to address a methodology to implement short and long-term contract pricing and evaluate the risks associated with its strategies. Moreover, the work identifies the contracting decisions to optimize electricity costs accordingly to customer´s needs. Finally, it is presented a study on contract flexibility where an opportunity could be given to such kind of consumers, making possible to resell part of their electricity contracts.

The modern supply chain is long, complex, interconnected and global, and plays a fundamental role in business competitiveness. These conditions, along with various supply chain management trends in recent years have increased risks in supply chains which threaten supply chain performance. Greater impact, especially on cost, from an increased threat of supply disruptions is one area of particular concern. Companies today are struggling to find effective means to manage this increased risk and avoid adverse financial impacts. An approach to managing supply disruption risk in supply chains based on the minimization of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the supply chain is explored in this thesis. Insights are provided into an appropriate view of supply chain risk and a general four step risk management process to guide the design and evaluation of a new risk management tool based on such an approach. A prototype of the new total cost-based, modeling and simulation tool was created in partnership with ProModel Corporation and a government contractor that requested to remain anonymous. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of this tool in minimizing TCO and providing an interface useable by non-modelers is provided. This study also reviews and compares a sample set of current supply chain risk management methods and tools and compares them with the new tool for relevance in aiding users in managing supply disruption risk. Based on literature findings and preliminary feedback from pilot contextual demonstrations of the tool, the total cost approach to risk modeling appears promising, although the execution needs to be improved with further enhancements made to the prototype tool. In this preliminary study and evaluation, sufficient evidence is not available to determine that the new prototype tool is any more effective than other currently available risk management tools to provide necessary information to make supply chain risk management decisions that minimize TCO of a supply chain. Suggestions for further development of the tool, especially for improvement of the total cost approach, are provided as well as a preliminary evaluation procedure and survey instruments for a more robust evaluation of the new tool.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes andTurkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes and reluctance to conform with requirements of risk mitigation. Low penetration ratio and high earthquake risk threaten efficiency of the ZDS system and does not reduce burdens of the State. Based on survey findings, a more appropriate strategy for the achievement of resilience against earthquakes could be possible through the collaboration of the ZDS system with local administrations. It is observed that by means of a &lsquo / Grant Program&rsquo / , there may be abundant reason and evidence to achieve convertion of the ZDS system from a post-disaster loss compensation mechanism to a predisaster risk reduction benefactor. Supporting municipalities to produce urban risk maps could reduce risks by more accurate estimation of potential losses, and an extended coverage of the ZDS system to urban risks. Relationship analyses between homeowners&rsquo / attributes, perceptions and tendencies toward alternative policies indicate the necessity of introducing policies based risk-rated premiums. Homeowners are observed as requiring technical and financial assistance to take mitigation measures, decisions under individualized conditions, on the other hand, seem to reinforce fatalistic attitudes and reluctance due to the disregard of risk mitigation benefits and ZDS purchase. Waste of public resources and creation of social inequalities could be prevented by enhancing the capacities of local authorities to implement urban risk mitigation plans and community-based projects via a Grant Program. &lsquo / Relationship analyses&rsquo / of the attitudes of homeowners for alternative policies with respect to their attributes and perceptions revealed that a Grant Program could result in the perception of the ZDS system as a form of social solidarity in risk mitigation. This is to reduce fatalistic attitudes, and curb reluctance compared to individualized conditions of insurance purchase. As a result, willingness to mitigate risks through active participation and purchase of ZDS contracts, particularly among homeowners in the middle-lower socio-economic statuses are likely to expand leading to a resilience society.

Submitted by Odilon Jose de Oliveira Neto (professorodilon@yahoo.com.br) on 2013-09-27T20:34:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-09-27T20:50:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-27T21:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-20 / Several attempts of negotiation of future contracts and price indexes of beef cattle in Argentina and in Uruguay were frustrated along the years. The derivatives issued failed in a short period of time due to lack of liquidity. That scenery and other particularities of the live cattle spot market turned the administration of risk of prices into a problem for the economical agents of the meat chain. In this context, the following question emerged: the cross hedging with future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) is effective for the administration of risk of prices of beef steers in the Argentinian and Uruguayan spot market? In an effort to answer this question, it was proposed to verify if it is possible to mitigate the risk of the price volatility of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan beef steers through of cross hedging in the futures market for Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa. For this, it was used static and dynamic models to estimate of the optimal cross hedge ratio and effectiveness of risk mitigation. The results of the hypothesis test of risk mitigating allow to assure that there are strong empirical evidences of effectiveness of the futures market of Brazilian live cattle in protection against the prices risk of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan steers. Complementarily, it was analyzed the hypothesis of the futures market efficiency. The results present empirical evidence of a stochastic relationship common in long-term between spot and futures prices, and efficiency in predicting short-term price, which suggest that the future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa allow adequate hedge of price for the Argentinian and Uruguayan steers in spot market. / Na Argentina e no Uruguai, diversas tentativas de negociação de contratos futuros e de índice de preços de carne bovina foram frustradas ao longo dos anos, tendo os derivativos lançados fracassado, em um curto espaço de tempo, por falta de liquidez. Esse cenário, somado a outras particularidades do mercado físico da carne bovina, torna o gerenciamento de risco de preços um problema para os agentes econômicos que atuam nessa cadeia produtiva. Nesse contexto, emergiu a seguinte questão: a proteção cruzada com contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa) é efetiva para a administração do risco de preços dos novilhos de corte no mercado a vista argentino e uruguaio? Com a finalidade de responder a essa questão, propôs-se a verificar se é possível mitigar o risco da volatilidade de preços no mercado a vista dos novilhos de corte argentinos e uruguaios por meio do cross hedging no mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na BM&FBovespa. Para tanto, foram utilizados modelos estáticos e dinâmicos de estimação da razão de cross hedge ótima e efetividade em mitigação do risco. Os resultados do teste de hipóteses de mitigação do risco permitiram assegurar que são fortes as evidências de efetividade do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na proteção contra o risco de preços do mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos e uruguaios. Complementarmente, verificou-se a hipótese de eficiência do mercado futuro. Os resultados apresentaram evidências de um relacionamento estocástico comum no longo prazo entre os preços a vista e futuros, e de eficiência na predição dos preços no curto prazo, o que sugere que os contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da BM&FBovespa permitem uma trava adequada de cotação-preço para os novilhos argentinos e uruguaios no mercado a vista.

This thesis study explores the existing knowledge management and sharing practices in donor organizations, particularly working in the developing countries. The potentional of knowledge management and sharing to facilitate development organizations in carrying out development work has been recognised in the literature. Literature presented mix of critique and appreciation to the existing efforts of donor agencies. Knowledge sharing platforms revolves around the country initiatives and donor agencies like UNDP and World Bank which are proactive in establishing these platforms for partner organizations. This research contributes practical insight to the question of delivery of these platforms, through an empirical investigation based on the development professionals' experiences. As earlier research shows enormous amount of literature on individual, team and organizational level knowledge sharing, this study sets prime focus on community level or external knowledge sharing, an area where there exist a dearth of emperical research or contributing literature on examing the role of sharing initiatives and possible contribution in improving risk management in development projects. Literature shows the potential of knowledge management and sharing practices, as their possible contribution in the global development practices and in bridging gap between North-South stakeholders. However, cultural, technological, organizational and individual level issues escalate with external level of knowledge sharing and thesis rightly, identifies success factors from the literature alongwith their viability from the professionals. It is even more inadequate when it comes to projects of donor organizations in under developed and developing countries. With 80% of documented failure rates of knowledge sharing systems, external knowledge sharing with partner organizations or network organizations is really not adequate and do not have supporting culture. As this whole process of sharing knowledge, heavily relies on the perceived motivation and willingness to share, study has tried to identify the challenges facing wider use of these sharing systems. Study also contributes with suggestions for knowledge management and sharing system developers, policy and decision makers and system users, to improve the overall contribution of knowledge sharing in better risk management. Apart from the cultural barriers, there are technical and policy level issues which need more concerted efforts to improve the use of these sharing systems by various organizations and individuals. / House No. 174-A, St. 61, I-8/3, Islamabad, Pakistan Contact: +92-336-5666065, Email: noman-1985@hotmail.com

This diploma thesis deals with an analysis of the credit process in small and medium enterprises. First part describes financial risks, to which banks are exposed with a special emphasis on a credit risk. The next chapter describes the process of a risk management, particularly its individual phases such as identification, measurement, securing and monitoring. The third part discusses each phase of the loan process that represents the risk mitigation strategy on the level of a single trade. In the forth part a loan application of a particular applicant is being thoroughly analysed. The last, fifth part sums up a development of conditions on a credit market in small and medium enterprises.