Le virus de l’hépatite E (HEV) est un agent zoonotique dont les porcs représentent le principal réservoir dans les pays industrialisés. Le présent projet de recherche a combiné études épidémiologiques, modélisation mathématique et sciences sociales pour proposer des leviers de réduction du risque d’exposition humaine au HEV par consommation de produits à base de porc. Deux essais expérimentaux et une étude en conditions naturelles ont mis en évidence le rôle majeur des co-infections immunomodulatrices dans la dynamique de l’infection par le HEV chez le porc, ces pathogènes intercurrents conduisant à une infection chronique par le HEV et à un risque augmenté de présence du virus dans le foie, le sang et les muscles des animaux abattus. Le développement d’un modèle intra-élevage, stochastique, individu-centré et multi-pathogènes, a permis de dégager des pistes de maîtrise à la fois zootechniques et sanitaires pour réduire la prévalence du virus en élevage. En complément, la conception d’un modèle inter-troupeaux a rendu possible l’analyse des facteurs de diffusion du virus dans un réseau d’élevages français. L’ensemble de ces mesures de gestion du HEV a été soumis à l’avis des organisations publiques et privées et des acteurs individuels de la filière porcine (éleveurs, conseillers, vétérinaires) par des approches de sciences humaines et sociales. Finalement, ce projet transversal et multi-disciplinaire a permis de définir des axes d’action tangibles et réalisables de gestion du HEV dans la filière porcine tout en apportant des contributions méthodologiques significatives en épidémiologie et en modélisation. / Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a zoonotic pathogen whose main reservoir in industrialised countries is pigs. This research project combined epidemiological studies, mathematical modelling and social sciences to propose levers for reducing the risk of human exposure to HEV through the consumption of pork products. Two experimental trials and one study under natural conditions highlighted the major role of immunomodulating co-infections on the dynamics of HEV infection in pigs, as these intercurrent pathogens led to chronic HEV infection and an increased risk of the virus in the liver, blood and muscles of slaughtered animals. The development of a within-herd, stochastic, individual-based and multi-pathogen model has made it possible to identify both zootechnical and sanitary control measures to reduce the prevalence of the virus on farms. In addition, the design of a between-herd model has enabled to analyse the factors responsible for the spread of the virus in a network of French farms. All these HEV control measures have been submitted for the opinion of public and private organisations and individual players in the pig sector (farmers, farming advisors, veterinarians) through social science approaches. Finally, this transversal and multidisciplinary project made it possible to define tangible and achievable lines of action for the management of HEV in the pig sector while making significant methodological contributions in epidemiology and modelling.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are highly popular in the robotics field to solve complex problems, learn from dynamic environments and generate optimal outcomes. However, one of the main limitations of RL is the lack of model transparency. This includes the inability to provide explanations of why the output was generated. The explainability becomes even more crucial when RL outputs influence human decisions, such as in Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) scenarios, where safety requirements should be met. This work focuses on the application of two explainability techniques, “Reward Decomposition” and “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, on a RL algorithm which is the core of a risk mitigation module for robots’ operation in a collaborative automated warehouse scenario. The “Reward Decomposition” gives an insight into the factors that impacted the robot’s choice by decomposing the reward function into sub-functions. It also allows creating Minimal Sufficient Explanation (MSX), sets of relevant reasons for each decision taken during the robot’s operation. The second applied technique, “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, provides a global overview of the robot’s behavior by answering queries asked by human users. It also provides insights into the decision guidelines embedded in the robot’s policy. Since the synthesis of the policy descriptions and the queries’ answers are in natural language, this tool facilitates algorithm diagnosis even by non-expert users. The results proved that there is an improvement in the RL algorithm which now chooses more evenly distributed actions and a full policy to the robot’s decisions is produced which is for the most part aligned with the expectations. The work provides an analysis of the results of the application of both techniques which both led to increased transparency of the robot’s decision process. These explainability methods not only built trust in the robot’s choices, which proved to be among the optimal ones in most of the cases but also made it possible to find weaknesses in the robot’s policy, making them a tool helpful for debugging purposes. / Algoritmer för förstärkningsinlärning (RL-algoritmer) är mycket populära inom robotikområdet för att lösa komplexa problem, att lära sig av dynamiska miljöer och att generera optimala resultat. En av de viktigaste begränsningarna för RL är dock bristen på modellens transparens. Detta inkluderar den oförmåga att förklara bakomliggande process (algoritm eller modell) som genererade ett visst returvärde. Förklarbarheten blir ännu viktigare när resultatet från en RL-algoritm påverkar mänskliga beslut, till exempel i HRC-scenarier där säkerhetskrav bör uppfyllas. Detta arbete fokuserar på användningen av två förklarbarhetstekniker, “Reward Decomposition” och “Autonomous policy Explanation”, tillämpat på en RL-algoritm som är kärnan i en riskreduceringsmodul för drift av samarbetande robotars på ett automatiserat lager. “Reward Decomposition” ger en inblick i vilka faktorer som påverkade robotens val genom att bryta ner belöningsfunktionen i mindre funktioner. Det gör det också möjligt att formulera en MSX (minimal sufficient explanation), uppsättning av relevanta skäl för varje beslut som har fattas under robotens drift. Den andra tillämpade tekniken, “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, ger en generellt prespektiv över robotens beteende genom att mänskliga användare får ställa frågor till roboten. Detta ger även insikt i de beslutsriktlinjer som är inbäddade i robotens policy. Ty syntesen av policybeskrivningarna och frågornas svar är naturligt språk underlättar detta en algoritmdiagnos även för icke-expertanvändare. Resultaten visade att det finns en förbättring av RL-algoritmen som nu väljer mer jämnt fördelade åtgärder. Dessutom produceras en fullständig policy för robotens beslut som för det mesta är anpassad till förväntningarna. Rapporten ger en analys av resultaten av tillämpningen av båda teknikerna, som visade att båda ledde till ökad transparens i robotens beslutsprocess. Förklaringsmetoderna gav inte bara förtroende för robotens val, vilket visade sig vara bland de optimala i de flesta fall, utan gjorde det också möjligt att hitta svagheter i robotens policy, vilket gjorde dem till ett verktyg som är användbart för felsökningsändamål.

В сложившейся экономической ситуации организации строительной отрасли резко нуждаются в проведении работы по разработке методических рекомендаций по организации управленческого учета. Системообразующим и неотъемлемым элементом управленческого учёта является управленческая отчётность. Однако в настоящее время не существует каких-либо специальных отраслевых методических рекомендаций по организации управленческого учета в фирмах строительной отрасли, а также какой- либо универсальной модели управленческой отчётности. Необходимо сформировать новый подход к механизму формирования управленческого учёта исходя из цели организации эффективно¬го функционирования деятельности строительной фирмы. Данная проблема для строительства довольно значима, и в настоящее время необходимо постоянно совершенствовать отдельные элементы учетно-аналитической системы, основу которой составляет управленческий учёт. / Drastically need to work on the development of methodological recommendations on the organization of management accounting. The backbone and an integral element of management accounting is management accounting. However, at present there are no industry-specific methodical recommendations on the organization of management accounting in companies of the construction industry, as well as any universal model of management reporting. It is necessary to create a new approach to the mechanism of formation of management accounting based on the goals of the organization and effective functioning of the activities of the construction company. The problem for construction is quite important and currently it is necessary to continuously improve the individual elements of accounting and analytical system, which is based on management accounting.

In recent years, the frequency of disruptive events in supply chains has increased. This is partly due to the fact that supply chains are more globalized and more complex, with deeper tiering among suppliers. This makes the supply chain more vulnerable to risks. Supply chain risks that come with the dependencies of global suppliers have been evident due to unexpected global events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the obstruction in the Suez Canal, and the Russia-Ukraine war. To mitigate supply chain risks, a company needs to have a resilient supply chain. Volvo Construction Equipment, a world-leading manufacturer of premium construction equipment, has experienced some particularly challenging years due to global occurrences with material shortages, capacity constraints, and supply routes disruption. This has built up stress in the organization, both among processes and employees. To be able to plan for the coming years of high uncertainty, Volvo CE wants to investigate how they can anticipate and mitigate various risks and resist market fluctuations to create a more resilient supply chain. Therefore the purpose of the research was formulated as: The purpose of the research is to suggest how Volvo Construction Equipment AB can mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply chain in a volatile market. To facilitate the fulfillment of the research’s purpose, three research questions were developed concerning risk identification, assessing resilience capabilities, and assessing risk mitigation strategies. The first research question, RQ1, identified Volvo CE’s supply chain risks and the vulnerability of the risks. The supply chain risks were identified through focused group discussions with Volvo CE employees and the most vulnerable risks were determined through a survey with responses from the participants in the group discussions. Three risks were considered the most vulnerable in Volvo CE’s supply chain; lack of raw material and component shortage, lack of labor and competence in production at supplier, and shutdown of supplier factory due to unexpected events. The second research question, RQ2, answered which resilience capabilities Volvo CE possesses today and which should be improved. The resilience capabilities were assessed qualitatively through semi-structured interviews. The interview answers were then interpreted into what SCRES elements Volvo CE possess. It was concluded that all resilience capabilities can be improved but two out of five capabilities, ability to anticipate and ability to recover, were considered to have the most improvement potential as they contain a large proportion of SCRES elements that are not fully possessed today. Through semi-structured interviews and a cross-question analysis with RQ1 and RQ2, the third research question, RQ3, regarding the assessment of risk mitigation strategies could be answered. Based on the result of all research questions, five risk mitigation strategies were suggested for Volvo CE. These aimed to improve Volvo CE’s resilience capabilities with the most improvement potential to be able to mitigate the most vulnerable supply chain risks. The suggested risk mitigation strategies were supply chain understanding, SCRM culture, supplier relationship, backup supplier, and scenario planning. By working with these strategies, Volvo CE could significantly increase its resilience and thus create an organization better able to mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply in a volatile market.

Hydrogeological hazards are quite diffuse rainfall-induced phenomena that affect mountain regions and can severely impact these territories, producing damages and sometimes casualties. For this reason, hydrogeological risk reduction is crucial. Mitigation strategies aim to reduce hydrogeological risk to an acceptable level and can be classified into structural and non-structural measures. This work focuses on enhancing some non-structural risk mitigation measures for mountain areas: debris-flow rainfall thresholds, as a part of an Early Warning System (EWS), multivariate rainfall scenarios with multi-hazard mapping purpose and public awareness. Regarding debris-flow rainfall thresholds, an innovative calibration method, a suitable uncertainty analysis and a proper validation process are developed. The Backward Dynamical Approach (BDA), a physical-based calibration method, is introduced and a threshold is obtained for a study area. The BDA robustness is then tested by assessing the uncertainty in the threshold estimate. Finally, the calibrated threshold's reliability and its possible forecast use are assessed using a proper validation process. The findings set the stage for using the BDA approach to calibrate debris-flow rainfall thresholds usable in operational EWS. Regarding hazard mapping, a multivariate statistical model is developed to construct multivariate rainfall scenarios with a multi-hazards mapping purpose. A confluence between a debris-flow-prone creek and a flood-prone river is considered. The multivariate statistical model is built by combining the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach and a copula approach. The obtained rainfall scenarios are promising to be used to build multi-hazard maps. Finally, the public awareness within the LIFE FRANCA (Flood Risk ANticipation and Communication in the Alps) European project is briefly considered. The project action considered in this work focuses on training and communication activities aimed at providing a multidisciplinary view of hydrogeological risk through the holding of courses and seminars.

The risk of climate change has gained prominence globally and also in South Africa. Companies operating in developing countries such as South Africa are perceived to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. There have been mixed reactions to this risk by companies ranging from inaction to significant financial outlays expended on mitigating this risk. Whilst climate change is potentially a downside risk to financial performance, certain companies have identified opportunities to enhance their returns in the course of adapting to climate change. This study assessed whether there is a relationship between climate change and the financial performance, as manifested in the mitigation of risks and exploitation of opportunities of selected South African companies. The study sought to establish the extent to which climate change creates relevant and material risks, returns and opportunities for companies. The study was conducted using a combination of a literature review and empirical research in the form of secondary analysis. Data on climate-change performance, risks and opportunities was compared to data on financial indicators. The population of companies selected for the empirical research consisted of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed companies that had publicly disclosed information to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) in 2012. Climate-change data was categorised to differentiate between varying levels of climate-change performance, and the identified categories were compared to a range of ratios that demonstrated financial return. The research concluded that climate-change risks and opportunities are expected to have a significant and highly likely impact on company operations, revenue and expenditure. Positive and statistically significant correlations were identified between climate-change performance and equity analyst recommendations, historical internal rates of return, market values to book values, forecasted earnings per share, beta coefficients, and return on equity. Climate-change performance was not found to have a significant effect on the cost of capital. / Management Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The petroleum industry concern itself with natural resource extracting activities which are highly sensitive for contributing to environmental degradation by oil spills or gas flaring. A large proportion of the world’s oil and gas reserves is located in developing countries where the presence of multinational oil corporations (MNOCs) is high as host countries often lack the infrastructure needed or are financially unable to conduct extracting operations on their own. The Niger Delta in southern Nigeria has one of the largest oil reserves in Africa and is one of the world’s leading oil exporters. MNOCs like Shell, Chevron, Total, ExxonMobil and Statoil are some of the firms present in the Niger Delta region. The oil-rich area in the developing country poses high levels of political risk for the MNOCs. Local grievances, paired with environmental degradation and human rights violations by the oil companies, have led to a tense relationship between the local stakeholders and the MNOCs, with so-called petro-violence at the center of the oil conflict. Frequently, oil installations are sabotaged and crude oil is stolen, causing major financial losses for the firms, and armed attacks on oil facilities and kidnapping of MNOCs’ staff constitute the majority of political risks facing MNOCs operating in the Niger Delta. This study investigates how MNOCs can successfully manage such political risks, providing a business advantage in a challenging business environment. By addressing the companys’ own behaviour, the research analyses if social engagement through corporate social responsibility (CSR) can mitigate political risk in the Niger Delta. The study looks at two different MNOCs operating in the Niger delta, Shell and Statoil, and scrutinises their methods of implementation of their CSR initiatives. The difference in approaches to CSR is elucidated where Shell claims it has repositioned its approach from a top-down angle during the first years of conducting CSR projects, to a more stakeholder-oriented approach. Yet, their approach is still found to carry elements of the previous top-down approach, and has not resulted in satisfactory performance in relation to stated goals. Statoil undertakes a stakeholder-oriented bottom-up approach, executed with a high level of commitment. The stated CSR goals have to a great extent been met. By assessing the two companies’ CSR strategies in relation to the frequency of political risks experienced by each MNOC, the study finds that CSR has the potential to mitigate political risk depending on the approach to implementation, and could serve as a political risk management strategy. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die brandstofbedryf is betrokke by die ontginning van natuurlike hulpbronne, ’n aktiwiteit wat hoogs sensitief is vir sy bydrae tot omgewingsbesoedeling as gevolg van storting van olie en opvlamming van gas. ’n Baie groot deel van die wêreld se olie en gas reserwes word aangetref in ontwikkelende lande. Die teenwoordigheid van Multinasionale Olie Korporasies (MNOKs) in hierdie lande is groot omdat daar gewoonlik ’n gebrek aan toepaslike infrastruktuur is en die lande ook nie finansieel in staat mag wees om die ontginning op hulle eie te doen nie. Die Niger Delta in die Suide van Nigerië beskik oor een van die grootste olie reserwes in Afrika en is een van die voorste olie uitvoerders in die wêreld. Shell, Chevron, Total, ExxonMobil en Statoil is van die bekende MNOK wat ontginning doen in die Niger Delta gebied. Die olieryke gebiede in ’n ontwikkelende land kan groot politieke risiko vir die MNOKs inhou. Plaaslike griewe gekoppel aan omgewings besoedeling en menseregte skendings deur die oliemaatskappye het gelei tot ’n gespanne verhouding tussen hulle en die plaaslike belange groepe, en sogenaamde “petrogeweld” staan sentraal hierin. Heel gereeld word olie-installasies gesaboteer en ru-olie word gesteel, wat natuurlik groot finansiële verliese die firmas inhou. Daarby word gewapende aanvalle op die olie-installasies uitgevoer en van die MNOKs se personeel ontvoer. Al hierdie dinge vorm die groot politieke risiko’s wat die MNOKs in die Niger Delta in die gesig staar. Hierdie studie ondersoek hoe die MNOKs met welslae hierdie politieke risiko’s kan teenwerk om vir hulle ’n suksesvolle besigheid te vestig in ’n baie mededingende bedryfsomgewing. Deur te kyk na die maatskappy se eie gedrag, sal die navorsing analiseer of gemeenskapsbetrokkenheid deur korporatiewe sosiale verantwoordelikheid (KSV) die politieke risiko in die Niger Delta kan temper. Die studie kyk na twee verskillende MNOK wat in die gebied bedryf word, Shell en Statoil, en kyk noukeurig na die manier waarop hulle KSV inisiatiewe toegepas word. Die verskil in benadering tot die probleem word toegelig deur die feit dat Shell beweer dat hulle ’n bo-na-onder benadering in die beginjare van KSV projekte verander het na ’n beleid waar meer na die betrokkenheid van belangegroepe gekyk word. Tog word gevind dat daar nog oorblyfsels is van die bo-na-onder benadering en dat doelwitte wat gestel is nie bevredigend bereik is nie. Statoil daarenteen. Implementeer ’n onder-na-bo benadering met betrokkenheid van belangegroepe en ’n hoë vlak van toewyding deur die maatskappy. Die gestelde KSV doelwitte is grootliks behaal. Deur te kyk na die twee maatskappye se ervaring van politieke risiko in verhouding met hulle KSV strategieë bevind hierdie studie dat KSV wel die potensiaal het om, as dit suksesvol toegepas word, politieke risiko te temper en dus kan die as ’n strategie om sodanige risiko te bestuur.

Continuous technological development and increasing efficiency demands are driving products toward becoming more and more complex. For the aerospace industry - where the requirements for performance, safety and low environmental impact already are substantial - this means that more extensive quality assurance measures must be taken to ensure the fulfillment of the requirements of each individual component.However, to avoid that the work with quality improvement become too extensive and increase the product cost to unbearable levels it is necessary to have methods to prioritize and focus improvement efforts on the product features that matters most for fulfilling customer requirements. Therefore, the concept of Key Characteristics is used today, both in the aerospace and other industries; a term for those characteristics that have a significant impact on requirement compliance and whose outcomes at the same time are expected to vary considerably in manufacturing.The concept itself is similar among those who use it but the purpose of and methodology for identifying and managing Key Characteristics vary, even within the same industry. This thesis is therefore aimed to create a view of which factors that characterize an effective and efficient way for companies in the aerospace industry to work with Key Characteristics. The thesis involves a case study to create a framework for how companies within this industry work with Key Characteristics, a literature review to see which approaches are advocated by previous research and two benchmark studies to see examples of how Key Characteristics are used and handled in practice in industry.The results show that the work of Key Characteristics should meet three main criteria in order to be effective and efficient: • it must be clearly focused on the characteristics that have critical impact on customer requirements and at the same time considerable variation in production, • it should be initiated early in the product development process and then performed iteratively during the process of continuously reducing variation problems in manufacturing, and • it should identify Key Characteristics using both qualitative and quantitative tools to best capture all different kinds of requirements on the product.Finally a practical example is given of how the work with Key Characteristics should look like at GKN Sweden AB, the case study company in the aerospace industry, to effectively minimize the costs associated with production variation, and yet satisfy all customer requirements. / <p>Validerat; 20140811 (global_studentproject_submitter)</p>

The risk of climate change has gained prominence globally and also in South Africa. Companies operating in developing countries such as South Africa are perceived to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. There have been mixed reactions to this risk by companies ranging from inaction to significant financial outlays expended on mitigating this risk. Whilst climate change is potentially a downside risk to financial performance, certain companies have identified opportunities to enhance their returns in the course of adapting to climate change. This study assessed whether there is a relationship between climate change and the financial performance, as manifested in the mitigation of risks and exploitation of opportunities of selected South African companies. The study sought to establish the extent to which climate change creates relevant and material risks, returns and opportunities for companies. The study was conducted using a combination of a literature review and empirical research in the form of secondary analysis. Data on climate-change performance, risks and opportunities was compared to data on financial indicators. The population of companies selected for the empirical research consisted of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed companies that had publicly disclosed information to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) in 2012. Climate-change data was categorised to differentiate between varying levels of climate-change performance, and the identified categories were compared to a range of ratios that demonstrated financial return. The research concluded that climate-change risks and opportunities are expected to have a significant and highly likely impact on company operations, revenue and expenditure. Positive and statistically significant correlations were identified between climate-change performance and equity analyst recommendations, historical internal rates of return, market values to book values, forecasted earnings per share, beta coefficients, and return on equity. Climate-change performance was not found to have a significant effect on the cost of capital. / Management Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

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