Magister Scientiae (Physiotherapy) - MSc(Physio) / Background: A spinal cord injury (SCI) results in a change, either temporary or permanent, in the cord’s normal motor, sensory or autonomic function. In addition, secondary medical complications are common, following an SCI. As such, mortality risk in the spinal cord community remains higher, when compared to the general population. Understanding the complexity of factors related to mortality, remains paramount. Aim: The overarching aim was to assess mortality and secondary medical complications, four years after traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) in the City of Cape Town, South Africa. Secondarily, factors associated with mortality and the development of secondary medical complications were assessed. Methods: A prospective, population-based design was used. The study population consisted of all respondents with TSCI, who were enrolled in an earlier incidence study that was conducted in 2013/2014. For this follow-up study, an inclusive sampling strategy was used. All eligible respondents (N=145), or a family member of the deceased, were initially telephonically contacted and requested to complete a valid and reliable interview-administered questionnaire, to be completed face-to-face, or telephonically. Of those patients who were deceased, a close family member, or former caretaker was asked to participate in this current study. In order to aid the generalisability of the findings to the immediate source population, every non-responder with information available from baseline data collected in 2013/2014, were accounted for. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the cohort and to present the mortality rate, as well as point-prevalence of secondary medical complications. Inferential statistics, namely, bivariate logistic regression analysis, were used to identify factors associated with mortality and the development of secondary medical complications.

Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

One of the biggest problems South African banks are experiencing when managing operational risk is the lack of a single definition for operational risk. Operational risk can take many forms; for example computer system failure, the malfunction of an ATM or in same instances the long queues at a bank can be an operational risk It is clear that banks lack sufficient information to distinguish between different operational risk events as well as other risk events like credit risk, market risk, etc. In other words, banks are experiencing great difficulties with the identification of operational risk in South Africa The study therefore aims to determine and construct a single definition of operational risk that will be sufficient for the assessment of operational risk management in South Africa. The study also aims to examine the existing as well as the possible methods to identify, quantify and measure operational risk The main goal of this study is therefore to investigate the feasibility of capital provisions as a way of managing operational risk in South African banks, in other words the viability of the New Basel Capital Accord on South African banks. The methodology used includes a literature review, in-depth interviews and a case study on South African Retail Bank to determine and evaluate some of the most renowned indicators of operational risk in South Africa. The first objective was to determine a single definition of operational risk in South Africa. As mentioned, South African banks are having great difficulties to find a single definition of operational risk and this is causing problems in identifying operational risks in South Africa. It is the view of this study that the Basel Committee's definition is not sufficient enough for operational risk management in South Africa; therefore there is a great need to find a single definition of operational risk in South African banks. The second objective is to provide an overview of the Base1 Committee and its Capital Accord, by focusing on one of the outstanding changes to the existing accord, which is the proposed explicit capital requirement for operational risk. It has been established that the Base1 Capital Accord is widely adopted around the world. Consequently, from the viewpoint of being competitive, it is to the advantage of a bank to adhere to the prescriptions of the Base1 Capital Accord. However, to stay relevant, the Basel Capital Accord was due for a review. The Basel Committee released a proposal to replace the existing Basel Capital Accord with a more. risk sensitive framework. The new framework intends to improve safety and soundness in the financial system by placing more emphasis on banks' own internal control and management, the supervisory review process, and market discipline. The third objective of this research was to present the theory of asset and liability management (ALM) within the unifying theme of operational risk management. It was indicated that capital is used to absorb an operational risk loss. The Asset and Liability Committee (ALCO) is responsible for the strategic management of a bank's balance sheet, therefore also ALM, and as capital forms part of the banks balance sheet, it is also the responsibility of the ALCO to manage the capital that is used as provision for an operational risk. The fourth objective was to determine and evaluate the key risk indicators of operational risk in South Africa theoretically and then also by means of a case study on a South African Retail Bank and then to made some recommendations regarding the effective identification of the key indicators of operational risk in South Africa. It was indicated the challenge in identifying key operational risk indicators is to find indicators that is not only business-specific but are also fm wide indicators of operational risk. Recommendations on the effective identification of key operational risk indicators were made. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.

In the last century, agricultural intensification on the Canadian prairies has resulted in increased pesticide use with the potential to expose non-target organisms to pesticides as a result of non-point source pollution. In order to minimize risk and implement programs and regulations that promote sustainable agricultural practices, information on the types of pesticides being used and their subsequent fate in soils is essential. In this study, pesticide use trends were summarized and Herbicide Risk Indicators (HRIs) were calculated for the 1996-2006 growing seasons; a time period in which genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops were commercially adopted. This study also quantified the influence of soil moisture, temperature, slope position, and soil depth within the plough layer on 2,4-D [2,4-(dichlorophenoxy) acetic acid] fate in soil obtained from a cultivated undulating field in Southern Manitoba. Annual pesticide use varied slightly over the 11-year period, but overall, there were no significant increasing or decreasing temporal trends for herbicides, fungicides, or insecticides. Although the total mass of herbicides remained relatively consistent, there was a significant change in the types of herbicides applied associated with the increased adoption of GMHT-canola; the most significant trend being the increase of GLY, from 16% to 45% of the total herbicides used in 1996 to 2006, respectively. HRIs demonstrated that herbicides used in 2006, are on average, more soluble, but less persistent, less volatile, and less acutely toxic to mammals (inhalation and acceptable daily intake), aquatic invertebrates, fish and algae, than those applied in 1996. Although 2,4-D remains one of the top 10 herbicides applied to agricultural crops in Manitoba, there were no significant increasing or decreasing trends in 2,4-D use between 1996 and 2006. Results from the experimental studies revealed that 2,4-D mineralization half-lives (DT50) in soil varied from 3 days to 51 days with the total 2,4-D mineralization (MT) ranging from 5.8 to 50.9%, depending on soil moisture, temperature, slope position, and depth. Both DT50 and MT demonstrated a polynomial relationship with temperature, typical of a biological system with minimum, optimum, and maximum temperatures.

One of the biggest problems South African banks are experiencing when managing operational risk is the lack of a single definition for operational risk. Operational risk can take many forms; for example computer system failure, the malfunction of an ATM or in same instances the long queues at a bank can be an operational risk It is clear that banks lack sufficient information to distinguish between different operational risk events as well as other risk events like credit risk, market risk, etc. In other words, banks are experiencing great difficulties with the identification of operational risk in South Africa The study therefore aims to determine and construct a single definition of operational risk that will be sufficient for the assessment of operational risk management in South Africa. The study also aims to examine the existing as well as the possible methods to identify, quantify and measure operational risk The main goal of this study is therefore to investigate the feasibility of capital provisions as a way of managing operational risk in South African banks, in other words the viability of the New Basel Capital Accord on South African banks. The methodology used includes a literature review, in-depth interviews and a case study on South African Retail Bank to determine and evaluate some of the most renowned indicators of operational risk in South Africa. The first objective was to determine a single definition of operational risk in South Africa. As mentioned, South African banks are having great difficulties to find a single definition of operational risk and this is causing problems in identifying operational risks in South Africa. It is the view of this study that the Basel Committee's definition is not sufficient enough for operational risk management in South Africa; therefore there is a great need to find a single definition of operational risk in South African banks. The second objective is to provide an overview of the Base1 Committee and its Capital Accord, by focusing on one of the outstanding changes to the existing accord, which is the proposed explicit capital requirement for operational risk. It has been established that the Base1 Capital Accord is widely adopted around the world. Consequently, from the viewpoint of being competitive, it is to the advantage of a bank to adhere to the prescriptions of the Base1 Capital Accord. However, to stay relevant, the Basel Capital Accord was due for a review. The Basel Committee released a proposal to replace the existing Basel Capital Accord with a more. risk sensitive framework. The new framework intends to improve safety and soundness in the financial system by placing more emphasis on banks' own internal control and management, the supervisory review process, and market discipline. The third objective of this research was to present the theory of asset and liability management (ALM) within the unifying theme of operational risk management. It was indicated that capital is used to absorb an operational risk loss. The Asset and Liability Committee (ALCO) is responsible for the strategic management of a bank's balance sheet, therefore also ALM, and as capital forms part of the banks balance sheet, it is also the responsibility of the ALCO to manage the capital that is used as provision for an operational risk. The fourth objective was to determine and evaluate the key risk indicators of operational risk in South Africa theoretically and then also by means of a case study on a South African Retail Bank and then to made some recommendations regarding the effective identification of the key indicators of operational risk in South Africa. It was indicated the challenge in identifying key operational risk indicators is to find indicators that is not only business-specific but are also fm wide indicators of operational risk. Recommendations on the effective identification of key operational risk indicators were made. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.

In the last decade, the financial service industry has become increasingly aware of the dangers posed by operational risk. Profound changes in the economic and financial environment have made it necessary for banks in general to adapt their long term strategies as well as their approaches to the management of their assets and liabilities. Regardless of this heightened awareness, banks continue to fail at effective management of these risks. The Asset and Liability Management Committee (ALCO) is responsible for managing a bank's assets and liabilities to balance its many risk exposures and thereby help it achieve its operating objectives e.g. maximising Net Interest Income (Nil). Thus the ALCO process is the crux of the strategic management process performed within a bank. The ALCO process is driven by people, processes and technology which, in essence, is a broad definition of operational risk. Failure in any one of these areas will lead to failure of the ALCO, ALCO processes and, therefore, the strategic Asset and Liability Management (ALM). The focus of this study is, therefore, how to measure and manage operational risk in a bank's ALCO process. A case study was conducted, with the aid of ALCO experts in a specialised niche bank in South Africa, to identify operational risks within this bank's ALCO process. The various risk indicators of operational risk were classified into 5 broad categories. Each category was weighted according to its representative risk indicator and converted into percentages for the interpretation of the overall results. Category 2 (authority levels) has the highest negative impact, while the remaining 4 categories (employee, model, system and other indicators) have a medium negative impact, on the efficiency of the ALCO process. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

In the last century, agricultural intensification on the Canadian prairies has resulted in increased pesticide use with the potential to expose non-target organisms to pesticides as a result of non-point source pollution. In order to minimize risk and implement programs and regulations that promote sustainable agricultural practices, information on the types of pesticides being used and their subsequent fate in soils is essential. In this study, pesticide use trends were summarized and Herbicide Risk Indicators (HRIs) were calculated for the 1996-2006 growing seasons; a time period in which genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops were commercially adopted. This study also quantified the influence of soil moisture, temperature, slope position, and soil depth within the plough layer on 2,4-D [2,4-(dichlorophenoxy) acetic acid] fate in soil obtained from a cultivated undulating field in Southern Manitoba. Annual pesticide use varied slightly over the 11-year period, but overall, there were no significant increasing or decreasing temporal trends for herbicides, fungicides, or insecticides. Although the total mass of herbicides remained relatively consistent, there was a significant change in the types of herbicides applied associated with the increased adoption of GMHT-canola; the most significant trend being the increase of GLY, from 16% to 45% of the total herbicides used in 1996 to 2006, respectively. HRIs demonstrated that herbicides used in 2006, are on average, more soluble, but less persistent, less volatile, and less acutely toxic to mammals (inhalation and acceptable daily intake), aquatic invertebrates, fish and algae, than those applied in 1996. Although 2,4-D remains one of the top 10 herbicides applied to agricultural crops in Manitoba, there were no significant increasing or decreasing trends in 2,4-D use between 1996 and 2006. Results from the experimental studies revealed that 2,4-D mineralization half-lives (DT50) in soil varied from 3 days to 51 days with the total 2,4-D mineralization (MT) ranging from 5.8 to 50.9%, depending on soil moisture, temperature, slope position, and depth. Both DT50 and MT demonstrated a polynomial relationship with temperature, typical of a biological system with minimum, optimum, and maximum temperatures.

In the last decade, the financial service industry has become increasingly aware of the dangers posed by operational risk. Profound changes in the economic and financial environment have made it necessary for banks in general to adapt their long term strategies as well as their approaches to the management of their assets and liabilities. Regardless of this heightened awareness, banks continue to fail at effective management of these risks. The Asset and Liability Management Committee (ALCO) is responsible for managing a bank's assets and liabilities to balance its many risk exposures and thereby help it achieve its operating objectives e.g. maximising Net Interest Income (Nil). Thus the ALCO process is the crux of the strategic management process performed within a bank. The ALCO process is driven by people, processes and technology which, in essence, is a broad definition of operational risk. Failure in any one of these areas will lead to failure of the ALCO, ALCO processes and, therefore, the strategic Asset and Liability Management (ALM). The focus of this study is, therefore, how to measure and manage operational risk in a bank's ALCO process. A case study was conducted, with the aid of ALCO experts in a specialised niche bank in South Africa, to identify operational risks within this bank's ALCO process. The various risk indicators of operational risk were classified into 5 broad categories. Each category was weighted according to its representative risk indicator and converted into percentages for the interpretation of the overall results. Category 2 (authority levels) has the highest negative impact, while the remaining 4 categories (employee, model, system and other indicators) have a medium negative impact, on the efficiency of the ALCO process. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Nové regulatórne pravidlá BASEL II, ktorých hlavným cieľom je zvýšiť bezpečnosť a stabilitu finančných systémov, posilniť konkurenciu medzi bankami a umožniť väčšiu rizikovú citlivosť definujú nový typ rizika, ktoré je potrebné pokryť dodatočným kapitálom - riziko operačné. BASEL II vymedzuje 3 prístupy (základný, štandardizovaný a pokročilý), ktoré je možné použiť k výpočtu regulatórneho kapitálu, potrebného na pokrytie strát vzniknutých v dôsledku realizácie operačného rizika. V prvej časti diplomovej práce je popísaný nový koncept bankovej regulácie, v časti druhej je vymedzený pojem operačné riziko a základné prístupy k jeho kvantifikácii. Tretia kapitola obsahuje návrh zjednodušeného teoretického modelu, ktorý umožní kapitálovú požiadavku na pokrytie operačného rizika kvantifikovať.

Risk indicators are metrics that are widely used in risk management to indicate how risky an activity is. Among different types of risk indicators, early warning systems are designed to help decision makers predict and be prepared for catastrophic events. Especially, in complex systems where outcomes are often difficult to predict, early warnings can help decision makers manage possible risks and take a proactive approach. Early prediction of catastrophic events and outcomes are at the heart of risk management, and help decision makers take appropriate actions in order to mitigate possible effects of such events. For example, physicians would like to prevent any adverse events for their patients and like to use all pieces of information that help accurate early diagnosis and interventions. In this research, first we study risk assessment for occupational injuries using accident severity grade as an early warning indicator. We develop a new severity scoring system which considers multiple injury severity factors, and can be used as a part of a novel three-dimensional risk assessment matrix which includes an incident's severity, frequency, and preventability. Then we study the predictability of health outcome based on early risk indicators. A systems model of patient health outcomes and hospital length of stay is presented based on initial health risk and physician assessment of risk. The model elaborates on the interdependent effects of hospital service and a physician's subjective risk assessment on length of stay and mortality. Finally, we extend our research to study the predictive power of early warning systems and prognostic risk indicators in predicting different outcomes in health such as mortality, disease diagnosis, adverse outcomes, care intensity, and survival. This study provides a theoretical framework on why risk indicators can or cannot predict healthcare outcomes, and how better predictors can be designed. Overall, these three essays shed light on complexities of risk assessments, especially in health domain, and in the contexts where individuals continuously observe and react to the risk indicators. Furthermore, our multi-method research approach provides new insights into improving the design and use of the risk measures. / Ph. D.