Submitted by Marlene Santos (marlene.bc.ufg@gmail.com) on 2014-10-13T20:57:57Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Klaus de Oliveira Abdala - 2012.pdf: 2007023 bytes, checksum: 764b97dcac1577e0294eee912c37b136 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jaqueline Silva (jtas29@gmail.com) on 2014-10-13T21:15:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Klaus de Oliveira Abdala - 2012.pdf: 2007023 bytes, checksum: 764b97dcac1577e0294eee912c37b136 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-13T21:15:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Klaus de Oliveira Abdala - 2012.pdf: 2007023 bytes, checksum: 764b97dcac1577e0294eee912c37b136 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-09-21 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / According to the IBGE is possible to identify four main complexes: cattle, soybeans, corn and sugar cane, responsible for the use and occupancy of approximately 97% of the soils. This thesis presents a survey of impacts on consumptive use of water resources, soils and forest remnants, from the dynamics of land use and specialization of municipalities in the state of Goiás in the complexes: Cane sugar, soybeans, corn and cattle.The results confirmed the hypothesis worked and indicated that municipal specialization in these complexes is the result of the comparative advantages of regions and that this specialization locate geographically environmental impacts analyzed.Therefore, working with the hypothesis that this specialization is the result of the exploitation of municipalities comparative advantages by competitive advantages of complexes in question.In response to questions for investigation, it was possible to identify the comparative advantages of the municipalities and the main competitive advantage of the complexes. In addition, indicators were generated from environmental risks to agriculture and a location model of these complexes as a function of the comparative advantages of the municipalities, which constitute subsidies to the establishment of institutions and public policies for regional development, the economic ecological and agro-ecological zoning and coordination between agricultural and environmental policies. / Segundo os dados do IBGE é possível identificar a presença de quatro principais complexos: bovinos, soja, milho e cana-de-açúcar, responsáveis pelo uso e ocupação de aproximadamente 95% dos solos. Esta tese apresenta o levantamento dos impactos no uso consuntivo de recursos hídricos, nos solos e no desflorestamento de remanescentes florestais, provenientes da dinâmica de uso do solo e da especialização dos municípios do estado de Goiás nos complexos cana-de-açúcar, soja, milho e bovinos. Para tanto, trabalha com a hipótese de que esta especialização é fruto da exploração das vantagens comparativas dos municípios pelas vantagens competitivas dos complexos em questão. Os resultados confirmaram a hipótese trabalhada e indicaram que a especialização municipal nos referidos complexos é fruto das vantagens comparativas das regiões e que essa especialização localiza geograficamente os impactos ambientais analisados. Como resposta às questões investigativas, foi possível identificar as vantagens comparativas dos municípios e a principal vantagem competitiva dos complexos. Além disso, foram gerados indicadores de riscos ambientais para a agricultura e um modelo de localização destes complexos como função das vantagens comparativas dos municípios, os quais constituem subsídios ao estabelecimento de instituições e formulação de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento regional, ao zoneamento agroecológico e ecológico econômico e à coordenação entre políticas agrícolas e políticas ambientais. Palavras-chave: Dinâmica de uso do solo; Estado de Goiás; Impactos ambientais, Indicadores de risco; complexos agropecuários.

Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2015-07-17T14:28:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Flavia Regina Cocuzza das Eiras.pdf: 1667187 bytes, checksum: b039c92b8913ea5abb2e449b63917ea6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-17T14:28:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Flavia Regina Cocuzza das Eiras.pdf: 1667187 bytes, checksum: b039c92b8913ea5abb2e449b63917ea6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-05 / With the evolution of healthcare expertise and the incorporation of new medical technologies, Terminal Hepatic Insufficiency nowadays has the possibility of liver transplantation as a therapeutic means of great effectiveness. For the establishment of fully qualified service units implementation several of the following a resources needs to be available. Manage these resources is one basic concern of health managers. The main objective of the study was the evaluation of usefulness of MELD severity indicator for end-stage liver disease as a predictive element for the use of support resources to patients undergoing liver transplantation in a Teaching Hospital. The study was characterized as quantitative, retrospective, and prospected variables were classified by 6 main dimensions; the identification and classification of patient risk, the use of advanced life support structures, imaging diagnostic, clinical tests, the appointment of special procedures and haemotherapeutics procedures. It were analyzed their frequencies by linear regression with analysis of variance (ANOVA), with the application of software STATATM 12.1 to detect which variables had relevance in view of the dependent variable and were analyzed 76 cases occurred in the period in terms of 6 dimensions. As a result, what it were found that some variables and dimensions included in the model explain the dependent variable, which implies the assumption of the deterministic character of the same. Among the dimensions in which the indicator was featured as a predictive factor were identified laboratory test results variables, same imaging tests and blood products. Given the results obtained and considering the main purpose of the study is concluded that the indicator "MELD" has projected potential capacity in terms of utilization of resources necessary for the postoperative management of patients undergoing liver transplantation. / Com a evolução da competência assistencial e a incorporação de novas tecnologias, a Insuficiência Hepática Terminal passou a contar com a possibilidade de transplante hepático como uma via terapêutica de grande efetividade. Para a constituição de unidades de atendimento plenamente habilitadas na execução destes procedimentos várias são as necessidades de recursos que deverão estar disponíveis. Gerenciar estes recursos é preocupação básica dos gestores de saúde. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi avaliar a utilidade do indicador de gravidade MELD para doenças hepáticas terminais como elemento preditivo do uso de recursos de apoio aos pacientes submetidos ao transplante hepático em um Hospital de Ensino de São Paulo. O estudo caracterizou-se como quantitativo e retrospectivo, foram classificadas variáveis objeto da prospecção segundo seis dimensões principais: a identificação e classificação do risco do paciente; a utilização de estruturas de suporte avançado à vida, de exames de apoio diagnóstico por imagem, de exames de análises clínicas; a indicação de procedimentos especiais; e de uso de hemoderivados. Foram analisadas suas frequências por regressão linear com análise de variância (ANOVA), com a aplicação do software STATATM 12.1 para detecção de quais variáveis apresentaram relevância face à variável dependente, sendo analisados 76 casos ocorridos no período frente às dimensões. Como resultado, o que se verificou foi que algumas variáveis e dimensões incluídas no modelo explicam a variável dependente, o que implica na assunção do caráter determinístico do mesmo. Dentre as dimensões em que o indicador se apresentava como fator preditivo foram identificadas variáveis de exames laboratoriais, de imagens e no uso de hemoderivados. Dados os resultados obtidos e considerando-se o propósito principal do estudo, conclui-se que o indicador "MELD" apresenta potencial capacidade previsão de utilização de recursos necessários ao tratamento pós-operatório dos pacientes submetidos a transplantes hepáticos.

The thesis deals with the determination of evaluating the economic efficiency of a development project for the construction of apartment complex. The theoretical part explains the concepts of investment, project development, economic efficiency and putting their indicators. The thesis also describes the business plan development activities and cash flows. The thesis also addressed the risks of investment projects, as well as an analysis of the current situation in the current area of investment. In the practical part of the description is made of the entire completed project, determining the cash flows of the project and its subsequent evaluation and assessment of economic efficiency.

Yes / Risk Management is one of the most relevant approaches and systematic applications of strategies, procedures and practices management that have been introduced in literatures for identifying and analysing risks which exist through the whole life of a product ,a process or services. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a risk assessment model that will be implemented to the energy sector, particularly to power plants. This model combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique with a new enhanced Balance Score Card (BSC). AHP is constructed to determine the weights and the priorities for all perspectives and risk indicators that involved in the BSC. The novelty in this paper is not only in using the BSC for risk assessment, but also, in developing a new BSC with six perspectives, which are sustainability perspective; economic; learning and growth; internal and operational business process; supply chain and customer/demand perspective. Another three contributions of this paper are firstly, including the sustainability dimension in BSC, and covering nine risk categories, which comprise 84 risk indicators that have been distributed across the six risk BSC perspectives. Secondly, assessing the non-technical risks in power plants and finally, this research will concentrate on the strategic level instead of the operational level where the majority of researches focus on latter but the former is far less researched. The created model will provide an effective measurement for the risks particularly, in the power plants sector. The results of this study demonstrate that the supply chain risks perspective is the keystone for the decision making process. Furthermore, these risk indicators with the new structure of BSC with six perspectives, help in achieving the organisation mission and vision in addition to affording a robust risk assessment model. The inputs of this model are composed from a previous stage using a modified Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) (which has been used the Exponential Weighted Geometric Mean (EWGM)) to understand and analyse all risks, after which, the results of the developed FMEA which are the Risk Priority Numbers (RPN’s), have been used to build the AHP-BSC risk model. These risks are collected with difficulty from various literatures. This study will be validated in the next stage in power plants in the Middle East. / Hashemite University, Jordan

A presente pesquisa propôs o desenvolvimento e a aplicação de um web-GIS interativo alimentado por usuários visando ao mapeamento do risco de inundações por meio da coleta de dados de ameaça, exposição e vulnerabilidade percebidos pela população. Foi também estimado o risco de inundação a partir de uma expressão de indicadores propostos por Mendiondo (2008). As duas metodologias foram aplicadas em sub-bacias urbanas da cidade de São Carlos. Foram realizadas entrevistas com a população da cidade para coletar dados de percepção de risco, enquanto se desenvolvia o web-GIS, para o qual, uma vez terminado, foram transferidos os referidos dados online. O portal se mostrou uma ferramenta de uso simples e confiável. As estimativas de risco calculadas por meio da expressão citada levaram a concluir que as sub-bacias com maior risco de inundação são as dos córregos Tijuco Preto e Medeiros. Entretanto, o risco estimado a partir da análise de percepção evidenciou as sub-bacias Gregório e Santa Maria Madalena como as de maior risco de inundação. As duas ferramentas apresentaram-se valiosas e econômicas para estimativa de risco de inundação em ambiente urbano, podendo constituir ótimos sistemas de apoio à decisão. O webGIS, em particular, é potencialmente útil para informar aos moradores sobre quais são as áreas de risco de inundação na cidade. / This dissertation presents the development and application of an interactive web-GIS in which internet users map flood risk collaboratively by filling up a geotagged form with questions on flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood risk was also assessed through the use of a set of environmental risk indicators proposed by Mendiondo (2008). The two methodologies were applied to six urban watersheds of the city of São Carlos (State of São Paulo, Brazil). Interviews including questions asked on the web-GIS were carried out in city streets while the portal was being developed. Thus perceived risk data gathered from the interviews was later transferred online onto the web-GIS. The web-GIS proved to be an easy to use and intuitive tool. According to the results of risk calculation obtained with the indicators expression the watersheds with higher flood risk were the Tijuco Preto and Medeiros, which were also the ones with smallest area and higher population density. The results of perceived risk, which was assessed through the analysis of the interviews data, gave evidence that Gregorio and Santa Maria Madalena where the watersheds at higher risk. These watersheds are the two which experience a higher rate of occurrence on a year basis. The two approaches for assessing risk proved to be consistent and relatively inexpensive for the estimate of flood risk in urban areas, with the potential of representing valid decision support systems. The webGIS is a particularly interesting solution as a medium of information to inhabitants on the level of risk to which they are exposed.

A presente pesquisa propôs o desenvolvimento e a aplicação de um web-GIS interativo alimentado por usuários visando ao mapeamento do risco de inundações por meio da coleta de dados de ameaça, exposição e vulnerabilidade percebidos pela população. Foi também estimado o risco de inundação a partir de uma expressão de indicadores propostos por Mendiondo (2008). As duas metodologias foram aplicadas em sub-bacias urbanas da cidade de São Carlos. Foram realizadas entrevistas com a população da cidade para coletar dados de percepção de risco, enquanto se desenvolvia o web-GIS, para o qual, uma vez terminado, foram transferidos os referidos dados online. O portal se mostrou uma ferramenta de uso simples e confiável. As estimativas de risco calculadas por meio da expressão citada levaram a concluir que as sub-bacias com maior risco de inundação são as dos córregos Tijuco Preto e Medeiros. Entretanto, o risco estimado a partir da análise de percepção evidenciou as sub-bacias Gregório e Santa Maria Madalena como as de maior risco de inundação. As duas ferramentas apresentaram-se valiosas e econômicas para estimativa de risco de inundação em ambiente urbano, podendo constituir ótimos sistemas de apoio à decisão. O webGIS, em particular, é potencialmente útil para informar aos moradores sobre quais são as áreas de risco de inundação na cidade. / This dissertation presents the development and application of an interactive web-GIS in which internet users map flood risk collaboratively by filling up a geotagged form with questions on flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood risk was also assessed through the use of a set of environmental risk indicators proposed by Mendiondo (2008). The two methodologies were applied to six urban watersheds of the city of São Carlos (State of São Paulo, Brazil). Interviews including questions asked on the web-GIS were carried out in city streets while the portal was being developed. Thus perceived risk data gathered from the interviews was later transferred online onto the web-GIS. The web-GIS proved to be an easy to use and intuitive tool. According to the results of risk calculation obtained with the indicators expression the watersheds with higher flood risk were the Tijuco Preto and Medeiros, which were also the ones with smallest area and higher population density. The results of perceived risk, which was assessed through the analysis of the interviews data, gave evidence that Gregorio and Santa Maria Madalena where the watersheds at higher risk. These watersheds are the two which experience a higher rate of occurrence on a year basis. The two approaches for assessing risk proved to be consistent and relatively inexpensive for the estimate of flood risk in urban areas, with the potential of representing valid decision support systems. The webGIS is a particularly interesting solution as a medium of information to inhabitants on the level of risk to which they are exposed.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-01-11T11:36:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 helgamendesdiasbinato.pdf: 3740763 bytes, checksum: 68d192870046cd2d79d431fc61985c7e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-01-25T17:04:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 helgamendesdiasbinato.pdf: 3740763 bytes, checksum: 68d192870046cd2d79d431fc61985c7e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-25T17:04:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 helgamendesdiasbinato.pdf: 3740763 bytes, checksum: 68d192870046cd2d79d431fc61985c7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-27 / O sistema auditivo é responsável por identificar, localizar e processar os sons, permitindo ao recém-nascido a percepção do mundo sonoro e o aprendizado da linguagem oral. Deficiências nesse sistema prejudicam as habilidades da comunicação, dificultam ou impedem a compreensão do discurso, acarretam prejuízos cognitivos, sociais e emocionais. As literaturas nacional e internacional preconizam a detecção e intervenção precoces seguidas do monitoramento audiológico dos neonatos e lactentes com presença de indicadores de risco para a deficiência auditiva, haja vista a existência das deficiências tardias. São considerados indicadores de risco as intercorrências pré, peri e pós natais que possam vir a causar a deficiência auditiva. O presente estudo teve como objetivo verificar a associação entre os indicadores de risco e as alterações auditivas em neonatos e lactentes através de estudo transversal. Foram analisados 292 prontuários pertencentes a uma clínica de referência em saúde auditiva do município de Juiz de Fora, de onde foram coletados dados referentes à idade, sexo, intercorrências pré, peri e pós natais, resultados das emissões otoacústicas, imitanciometria e potencial evocado auditivo de tronco encefálico. Os dados foram processados através do programa estatístico Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), versão 14.0. Foi realizada uma estimativa do grau da alteração auditiva, onde se verificou na OD normalidade em 67,1%, alterações leves em 4,1%, moderadas também em 4,1%, moderadamente severas em 4,8%, severas em 7,2% e profundas em 12,7% da população do estudo. Na OE observou-se normalidade em 63,4%, alterações leves em 4,8%, moderadas em 6,2%, moderadamente severas em 5,5%, severas em 5,1% e profundas em 15,1%. Constataram-se alterações em 121 exames de potencial evocado auditivo de tronco encefálico, sendo que 13,4% apresentaram alteração em apenas uma orelha e 28,1% apresentaram alteração bilateral. Na análise bivariada foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significantes para as variáveis exposição à ventilação mecânica, passagem pela unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal, ficar na incubadora, não reagir ao barulho (percepção dos pais), alterações neurológicas, encefalopatia, meningite, utilização de medicamento no período neonatal e a alteração auditiva. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de regressão logística, nos quais foram incluídas as variáveis com valor-p menor do que 0,05. Verificou-se que o fator mais fortemente associado a alteração auditiva nos neonatos e lactentes foi a percepção dos pais quanto a reação ao barulho (OR= 15), seguido da utilização de medicação no período neonatal (OR=3,06), passagem pela UTIN (OR=2,49) e utilização de VM (OR=2,29). / The hearing system is responsible for identifying, finding and processing sounds, allowing the newborn to both perceive different sounds and learn oral language. Disabilities in the hearing system may hinder communication skills. In addition, they may hinder or impede speech comprehension as well as give rise to cognitive, social and emotional losses. According to national and international literature, detection and intervention should be done as soon as possible followed by audiology monitoring in newborns and infants with risk indicators. Risk indicators are pre, peri and postnatal complications that may cause hearing disabilities. The present article aims to study the relation between risk indicators and hearing impairment in newborns and infants through a cross-sectional study. 292 medical charts were analysed from an auditory clinic in Juiz de Fora. Collected data included age, sex, pre, peri and postnatal complications, otoacoustic emission results and brainstem auditory evoked potential. Data were analysed through 14.0 Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program. The degree of hearing impairment was estimated. For the right ear, 67.1% were normal, 4.1% showed mild impairment, 4.1% moderate impairment, 4.8% slightly severe impairment, 7.2% severe impairment and 12.7% extremely severe impairment in the study group. For the left ear, 63.4% were normal, 4.8% showed mild impairment, 6.2% moderate impairment, 5.5% slightly severe impairment, 5.1% severe impairment and 15.1% extremely severe impairment. Out of 121 abnormal brainstem auditory evoked potential tests, 13.4% showed hearing impairment in only one of the ears. 28.1% showed hearing impairments in both ears. In the bivariate analyses, statistically significant differences were found regarding mechanical ventilation, admittance to neonatal intensive care unit, being in an incubator, no reaction to noise (as told by the parents), neurological conditions, encephalopathy, meningitis, medication use after being born and hearing impairment. Logistic regression models were developed. They included p value < 0.05. It was found that the most important factor for hearing impairment was reaction to noise (as told by parents) (OR=15), followed by medication use after being born (OR=3.06), admittance to neonatal intensive care unit (OR=2.49) and mechanical ventilation use (OR=2.29).

The development of language and communication skills in young children is directly related to future academic success. Young children who are at risk for language impairment should, therefore, be identified as early as possible so that their language development may be optimised. Multilingualism, which has become a universal phenomenon, may mask the presence of language impairment if the pre-school teacher or speech-language therapist is not proficient in the young multilingual learner’s primary language. In some urban areas of South Africa, where many languages are represented in each pre-school classroom, it is likely that the teacher or therapist will lack proficiency in the primary language of quite a number of the pre-school learners. In these contexts, the language of mutual understanding is English and assessment of learners’ language behaviour will also be conducted in English. Against this background the aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of constructing a profile of typical English language behaviours for pre-school EAL learners in a circumscribed urban area. The profile is intended to provide speech-language therapists and pre-school teachers in collaborative practice with a dual-purpose tool: an instrument for identifying those learners who are at risk for language impairment/language learning disabilities, and a means of obtaining guidelines for the development of an appropriate programme for facilitating language development. The literature study reviewed the language diversity in South African pre-schools, and the role of speech-language therapists in these multilingual pre-schools. The aspects of language to be included in a profile of typical English language behaviours for young EAL learners were discussed. A quantitative descriptive research design was selected. The language database for 30 EAL pre-schoolers from a circumscribed geographical area was collected during 20 minutes of conversation between each pre-school participant and a trained speech-language therapist who acted as research fieldworker. The language data was analysed to identify typical language behaviours relating to language form, language content and language use. The results show that it was possible to construct a profile of typical English language behaviours for nine aspects of language form, one aspect of language content, and six aspects of language use. The information was used to construct two versions of a profile of typical English language behaviours, as well as a profile of risk indicators for language impairment in the specified group of EAL pre-schoolers. An action plan was designed to indicate the way in which these three profiles – the comprehensive profile, the essential classroom profile, and the profile of risk indicators – may be used by the collaborative team of speech-language therapist and pre-school teacher for language assessment, the identification of learners with language impairment, and the facilitation of language development for all EAL learners. / Thesis (DPhil (Communication Pathology))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology / Unrestricted

[ES] Las grandes presas, así como los diques de protección, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede conllevar importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Tradicionalmente, la gestión del riesgo y la definición de estrategias de adaptación en la toma de decisiones han asumido la invariabilidad de las condiciones climáticas, incluida la persistencia de patrones históricos de variabilidad natural y la frecuencia de eventos extremos. Sin embargo, se espera que el cambio climático afecte de forma importante a los sistemas hídricos y comprometa la seguridad de las presas, lo que puede acarrear posibles impactos negativos en términos de costes económicos, sociales y ambientales. Los propietarios y operadores de presas deben por tanto adaptar sus estrategias de gestión y adaptación a medio y largo plazo a los nuevos escenarios climáticos. En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una metodología integral para incorporar los impactos del cambio climático en la gestión de la seguridad de presas y en el apoyo a la toma de decisiones. El objetivo es plantear estrategias de adaptación que incorporen la variabilidad de los futuros riesgos, así como la incertidumbre asociada a los nuevos escenarios climáticos. El impacto del cambio climático en la seguridad de presas se ha estructurado utilizando modelos de riesgo y mediante una revisión bibliográfica interdisciplinaria sobre sus potenciales efectos. Esto ha permitido establecer un enfoque dependiente del tiempo que incorpore la evolución futura del riesgo, para lo cual se ha definido un nuevo indicador que evalúa cuantitativamente la eficiencia a largo plazo de las medidas de reducción de riesgo. Además, para integrar la incertidumbre de los escenarios futuros en la toma de decisiones, la metodología propone una estrategia robusta que permite establecer secuencias optimizadas de implementación de medidas correctoras para la adaptación al cambio climático. A pesar de las dificultades para asignar probabilidades a eventos específicos, esta metodología permite un análisis sistemático y objetivo, reduciendo considerablemente la subjetividad. Esta metodología se ha aplicado al caso real de una presa española susceptible a los efectos del cambio climático. El análisis se centra en el escenario hidrológico, donde las avenidas son la principal carga a la que está sometida la presa. Respecto de análisis previos de la presa, los resultados obtenidos proporcionan nueva y valiosa información sobre la evolución de los riesgos futuros y sobre cómo abordarlos. En general, se espera un aumento del riesgo con el tiempo; esto ha llevado a plantear nuevas medidas de adaptación que no están justificadas en la situación actual. Esta es la primera aplicación documentada de un análisis exhaustivo de los impactos del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de rotura de una presa que sirve como marco de referencia para la definición de estrategias de adaptación a largo plazo y la evaluación de su eficiencia. / [CAT] Les grans preses, així com els dics de protecció, són infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Tradicionalment, la gestió del risc i la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació en la presa de decisions han assumit la invariabilitat de les condicions climàtiques, inclosa la persistència de patrons històrics de variabilitat natural i la probabilitat d'esdeveniments extrems. No obstant això, s'espera que el canvi climàtic afecte de manera important als sistemes hídrics i comprometi la seguretat de les preses, la qual cosa pot implicar possibles impactes negatius en termes de costos econòmics, socials i ambientals. Els propietaris i operadors de preses deuen per tant adaptar les seues estratègies de gestió i adaptació a mitjà i llarg termini als nous escenaris climàtics. En la present tesi s'ha desenvolupat una metodologia integral per a incorporar els impactes del canvi climàtic en la gestió de la seguretat de preses i en el suport a la presa de decisions. L'objectiu és plantejar estratègies d'adaptació que incorporen la variabilitat dels futurs riscos, així com la incertesa associada als nous escenaris climàtics. L'impacte del canvi climàtic en la seguretat de preses s'ha estructurat utilitzant models de risc i mitjançant una revisió bibliogràfica interdisciplinària sobre els seus potencials efectes. Això ha permès establir un enfocament dependent del temps que incorpori l'evolució futura del risc, per a això s'ha definit un nou indicador que avalua quantitativament l'eficiència a llarg termini de les mesures de reducció de risc. A més, per a integrar la incertesa dels escenaris futurs en la presa de decisions, la metodologia proposa una estratègia robusta que permet establir seqüències optimitzades d'implementació de mesures correctores per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic. A pesar de les dificultats per a assignar probabilitats a esdeveniments específics, esta metodologia permet una anàlisi sistemàtica i objectiva, reduint considerablement la subjectivitat. Aquesta metodologia s'ha aplicat al cas real d'una presa espanyola susceptible a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. L'anàlisi se centra en l'escenari hidrològic, on les avingudes són la principal càrrega a la qual està sotmesa la presa. Respecte d'anàlisis prèvies de la presa, els resultats obtinguts proporcionen nova i valuosa informació sobre l'evolució dels riscos futurs i sobre com abordar-los. En general, s'espera un augment del risc amb el temps; això ha portat a plantejar noves mesures d'adaptació que no estarien justificades en la situació actual. Aquesta és la primera aplicació documentada d'una anàlisi exhaustiva dels impactes del canvi climàtic sobre el risc de trencament d'una presa que serveix com a marc de referència per a la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació a llarg termini i l'avaluació de la seua eficiencia. / [EN] Large dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose failure has major economic and social consequences. Risk assessment approaches and decision-making strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events. However, climate change has a major impact on the world's water systems and is endangering dam safety, leading to potentially damaging impacts in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. Owners and operators of dams must adapt their mid- and long-term management and adaptation strategies to new climate scenarios. This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to incorporate climate change impacts on dam safety management and decision-making support. The goal is to design adaptation strategies that incorporate the non-stationarity of future risks as well as the uncertainties associated with new climate scenarios. Based on an interdisciplinary review of the state-of-the-art research on its potential effects, the global impact of climate change on dam safety is structured using risk models. This allows a time-dependent approach to be established to consider the potential evolution of risk with time. Consequently, a new indicator is defined to support the quantitative assessment of the long-term efficiency of risk reduction measures. Additionally, in order to integrate the uncertainty of future scenarios, the approach is enhanced with a robust decision-making strategy that helps establish the consensus sequence of measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation. Despite the difficulties to allocate probabilities to specific events, such framework allows for a systematic and objective analysis, reducing considerably the subjectivity. Such a methodology is applied to a real case study of a Spanish dam subjected to the effects of climate change. The analysis focus on hydrological scenarios, where floods are the main load to which the dam is subjected. The results provide valuable new information with respect to the previously existing analysis of the dam regarding the evolution of future risks and how to cope with it. In general, risks are expected to increase with time and, as a result, new adaptation measures that are not justifiable for the present situation are recommended. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam failure risk and serves as a reference benchmark for the definition of long-term adaptation strategies and the evaluation of their efficiency. / Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2020). Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157634 / TESIS

[ES] La Ley de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales de 8 de noviembre de 1995 (LPRL), en vigor desde el 10 de febrero de 1996, establece en su artículo 5: "tendrá por objeto la promoción de la mejora de las condiciones de trabajo dirigida a elevar el nivel de protección de la seguridad y la salud de los trabajadores en el trabajo." En esta Tesis se ha investigado la evolución de los índices de siniestralidad laboral y su relación con la evolución de diferentes variables explicativas relacionadas con el desarrollo normativo, el mercado de trabajo, la estructura productiva, las condiciones de empleo y las condiciones individuales, entre otras, para el caso de España y en el periodo 1995-2017, que abarca desde la promulgación de la LPRL hasta fechas recientes donde se disponía de los datos históricos necesarios. La investigación se ha centrado en los índices de salud más relevantes según su significado en términos de riesgo y/o sus componentes. El objetivo de la investigación ha sido el encontrar evidencias sobre relaciones causa-efecto entre índices y variables, a partir de las cuales extraer lecciones que facilitarán una mejor planificación de la acción preventiva. Para ello, se han propuesto varios modelos explicativos utilizando diferentes herramientas estadísticas, que han permitido formular de manera explícita y analizar la relación entre la evolución de los indicadores de salud ocupacional y la evolución de las principales variables explicativas. En términos generales puede concluirse que la implantación de dicha ley y normativa que la acompaña ha tenido un impacto positivo en las condiciones de trabajo y en consecuencia sobre el nivel de seguridad y salud de los trabajadores desde entonces y hasta la fecha. Sin embargo, se observan diferentes comportamientos cíclicos en la evolución de los indicadores, tales como los índices de incidencia, frecuencia y gravedad, que pone de manifiesto su dependencia de la naturaleza y comportamiento cíclico de algunas de las variables explicativas más importantes relacionadas con ciclos económicos, mercado de trabajo, estructura productiva, etc. Además, se observa como aspectos tales como la pertenencia a grupos de edad jóvenes o expertos, el nivel de estudios, determinadas categorías profesionales, y algunos sectores particulares tienen efectos significativos sobre los valores alcanzados por los índices de siniestralidad. En cambio, otros, como el trabajo a tiempo parcial o la contratación temporal no manifiestan tener tanta repercusión sobre los indicadores. / [CA] Partint de les dades corresponents als accidents ocorreguts en el període 1995-2017, es La Llei de Prevenció de Riscos Laborals de 8 de novembre de 1995 (*LPRL), en vigor des del 10 de febrer de 1996, estableix en el seu article 5: "tindrà per objecte la promoció de la millora de les condicions de treball dirigida a elevar el nivell de protecció de la seguretat i la salut dels treballadors en el treball." En aquesta Tesi s'ha investigat l'evolució dels índexs de sinistralitat laboral i la seua relació amb l'evolució de diferents variables explicatives relacionades amb el desenvolupament normatiu, el mercat de treball, l'estructura productiva, les condicions d'ocupació i les condicions individuals, entre altres, per al cas d'Espanya i en el període 1995-2017, que abasta des de la promulgació de la LPRL fins a dates recents on es disposava de les dades històriques necessàries. La investigació s'ha centrat en els índexs de salut més rellevants segons el seu significat en termes de risc i/o els seus components. L'objectiu de la investigació ha sigut el trobar evidències sobre relacions causa-efecte entre índexs i variables, a partir de les quals extraure lliçons que facilitaran una millor planificació de l'acció preventiva. Per a això, s'han proposat diversos models explicatius utilitzant diferents eines estadístiques, que han permés formular de manera explícita i analitzar la relació entre l'evolució dels indicadors de salut ocupacional i l'evolució de les principals variables explicatives. En termes generals pot concloure's que la implantació d'aquesta llei i normativa que l'acompanya ha tingut un impacte positiu en les condicions de treball i en conseqüència sobre el nivell de seguretat i salut dels treballadors des de llavors i fins hui. No obstant això, s'observen diferents comportaments cíclics en l'evolució dels indicadors, com ara els índexs d'incidència, freqüència i gravetat, que posa de manifest la seua dependència de la naturalesa i comportament cíclic d'algunes de les variables explicatives més importants relacionades amb cicles econòmics, mercat de treball, estructura productiva, etc. A més, s'observa com a aspectes com ara la pertinença a grups d'edat joves o experts, el nivell d'estudis, determinades categories professionals, i alguns sectors particulars tenen efectes significatius sobre els valors aconseguits pels índexs de sinistralitat. En canvi, uns altres, com el treball a temps parcial o la contractació temporal no manifesten tindre tanta repercussió sobre els indicadors. / [EN] The Occupational Risk Prevention Act of November 8, 1995 (ORPA), in force since February 10, 1996, establishes in its article 5: "will have as its objective the promotion of the improvement of working conditions aimed at raise the level of protection of the safety and health of workers at work. " This thesis has investigated the evolution of the occupational accident rates and their relationship with the evolution of different explanatory variables related to regulatory development, the labor market, the productive structure, employment conditions and individual conditions, among others, in the case of Spain and in the period 1995-2017, which ranges from the enactment of the LPRL to recent dates where the necessary historical data was available. Research has focused on the most relevant health indices according to their meaning in terms of risk and / or their components. The objective of the research has been to find evidence on cause-effect relationships between indices and variables, from which to extract lessons that will facilitate better planning of preventive action. To this end, several explanatory models have been proposed using different statistical tools, which have made it possible to explicitly formulate and analyze the relationship between the evolution of occupational health indicators and the evolution of the main explanatory variables. In general terms, it can be concluded that the implementation of said law and accompanying regulations has had a positive impact on working conditions and consequently on the level of health and safety of workers since then and to date. However, different cyclical behaviors are observed in the evolution of the indicators, such as incidence, frequency and severity indices, which highlights their dependence on the nature and cyclical behavior of some of the most important explanatory variables related to economic cycles, labor market, productive structure, etc. Furthermore, aspects such as belonging to young age groups or experts, educational level, certain professional categories, and some particular sectors are observed as having significant effects on the values reached by the accident rates. On the other hand, others, such as part-time work or temporary hiring, do not claim to have such an impact on the indicators. / Gallego Blasco, VS. (2021). Análisis de la incidencia de factores causales en la evolución de la siniestralidad laboral en España [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/168774 / TESIS