確保保險公司之清償能力是保險監理單位之首要目標，監理單位使用各種不同的監理制度以確保保險公司的財務體質，並防止保單持有人因為保險公司失去清償能力所遭致之損失。在各種監理制度中，RBC監理制度主要是衡量保險公司的資本適足性並且提供監理單位採取相關監理行動的準則；VaR監理制度則是目前銀行業之監理所嘗試採取的新監理方式，而且VaR也被廣泛運用在銀行內部的風險管理系統中，由銀行監理的發展趨勢看來，可以預期保險監理將來也會以VaR監理制度為主。 本研究的主要目的在於探討VaR監理制度適用在保險監理制度上的可行性以及與現行RBC監理制度的比較。在探討VaR監理制度的可行性前，本研究先就VaR監理制度運用在保險監理的前提以及影響保險公司失去清償能力的原因進行探討。 在瞭解影響保險公司失去清償能力的原因後，本研究分別對於在VaR監理制度下保險公司如何分別針對各種不同的風險因子決定所需持有的資本額度。經過相關文獻的探討以及考慮保險業的行業特性，本研究建議市場風險與核保風險可以用VaR計算其資本額度；信用風險由於尚未有十分完善的量化模型，所以本研究建議應以徵信方式因應此一風險，而業務風險則是以規定一固定比率的資本額度因應之。本研究也建議待保險公司累積足夠的VaR使用經驗後，保險監理制度可以開放使用預先承諾法。 在運用VaR於保險監理上時，本研究也建議監理單位必須注意有關VaR的實行風險與模型風險的影響，同時也強調監理單位的檢核與市場制度的力量是VaR監理制度能夠充分運作的必要條件；此外，由於制度實施的初期，無法驗證模型與資料的可用性，所以仍必須輔以最低固定比率的要求，以確保保險公司的清償能力。 在探討VaR運用在保險監理制度上的可行性後，本研究將進一步比較VaR與現行RBC監理制度的比較。本研究主要是由制度實行的難易程度、衡量資本適足的準確性，以及監理的成本三方面進行比較。制度實行的難易程度主要是比較VaR與RBC制度的複雜度與可行性，以及與公司內部風險管理和全球金融監理趨勢的整合程度。衡量資本適足的準確性主要是比較二種制度何者更可以衡量保險公司所面臨的各種風險、清償能力的效力，以及保險公司投資組合的風險分散效果。至於監理的成本則可分為監理者、保險公司與社會成本三方面來探討。 透過本研究的比較結果發現VaR監理制度除了在制度的複雜度與可行性較RBC制度差以外，其他項目皆優於RBC監理制度。除此之外，VaR與RBC都各自有其監理上的道德風險。本研究建議如同銀行監理一般，保險監理制度應朝向VaR監理制度的趨勢前進，以更可以確保保險公司的清償能力以及投保大眾的權益。 / Assuring insurance company solvency has always been the focal point of insurance regulation. Regulators use various methods to promote insurers' financial strength and protect policyholders from losses due to insolvency. Among these methods, risk-based capital (RBC) is used to measure the insurer's capital adequacy and provide the relative action rule for the regulator, and the VaR (value-at-risk) regulation is new regulatory type the bank regulator attempt to adopt. Besides the regulatory application, VaR is also used in bank's risk management system broadly. We can expect the VaR-type regulation will be the new insurance regulation in the future according to the development of bank's regulation. The methodology of this study adopt is literature review. The most important purpose of this study is to explore the feasibility of VaR-type insurance regulation and compare the VaR regulation with current RBC regulation. Before the regulation system examination, this study firstly discusses the presupposition of the VaR regulation application and the causes of insurer insolvency. For the purpose of developing the VaR-type capital requirement in insurance regulation, this study proposes that market and underwriting risk capital requirement can be directly calculated in VaR; credit and business risk capital requirement should be regulated a fixed-rate capital amount. This study also proposes the application of precommitment approach when the regulator assure the insurer accumulate good experience in VaR. In addition, this study also addresses some points for attention of VaR insurance regulation. The other purpose of this study is to compare the RBC and VaR through the regulatory implementation, solvency measurement, and regulatory cost. The result of this study indicates that VaR is superior to RBC in any aspect, besides the complexity and feasibility. In addition, VaR and RBC both have their own regulatory moral hazard. This study suggests VaR should be used in the insurance regulation as other financial regulation in the future.

截至2016年的統計資料，我國產險與壽險業的保險公司家數來到54家，保險業資產總額佔了全台灣所有金融機構總資產的31.78%，資產規模來到新台幣22.6兆元，在如此龐大的資產規模下，保險公司的投資組合管理變成相當的重要，重點漸漸的從投資在什麼樣的商品可以讓資金獲取最大效益轉移到了投資後的管理與部位的調整，以避免不必要的非系統性風險，有鑑於此，台灣在2003年實施了RBC制度，讓保險公司的投資組合的分配有所依據，不過仍然免不了過度集中在某些資產的問題，所以本研究的目的在於能否運用風險集中度的概念來判斷投資組合是否過度集中，而不僅僅只有投資金額的比例來做判斷。 本論文的研究方法會根據各家保險公司的實際投資組合以每半年或每年的型式分別計算Marginal Risk Contribution(MRC)的値，並且進行分析後再以Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)與 Gini Index 來檢視長期資產組合集中度的趨勢，最後的研究結果可以發現若是從邊際風險貢獻的比例來看，各保險公司的風險分布主要是集中在國內上市普通股與ETF、海內外不動產投資、國外已開發國家或新興市場上市普通股與ETF以及A評等的國外固定收益債券，而利用HHI與Gini Index兩個指標來看，各保險公司的資產集中度是逐年上升的。 / According to the statistical data in 2016, there are 54 insurance companies which includes property and casualty insurance company and life insurance company. And the scale of insurance asset is NTD 2,260 billion, accounting for 31.78% of whole asset of financial institution in Taiwan. Under huge amount of asset, the portfolio management for insurance company become more and more important. The key points of this issue are transferring to the ratio of portfolio management from choosing asset class to get maximum profit in order to avoid the nonsystematic risk gradually. Therefore, the Risk-based Capital policy has established in 2003 in Taiwan. The ratio of the insurance companies’ portfolio had the reference to allocate. However, there were some issues about the excessive concentration of some asset classes. So, the target of this study is using the concept of the risk concentration to judge the portfolio too concentrated or not. Not just judge it by its amount invested. The research process of this thesis is to calculate the marginal risk contribution value of the insurance companies’ portfolio every half a year or every year. Moreover, using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) & Gini Index to observe the trend of long term portfolio concentration. From the marginal risk contribution ratio. We can found the result of this study is the risk concentrated on the domestic listed common stock & ETF, domestic or foreign Real Estate, foreign developed market or emerging market listed common stock & ETF and fixed income bond (A rating). Besides, using the Herfindahl – Hirschman index and Gini index. The concentrated ratio of insurance companies’ portfolio were raising recent years.

近年隨著油價、物價上漲所導致的通貨膨脹風險，壽險業者以增額型終身壽險來吸引潛在消費者。另外，由於醫療技術的進步，使得死亡率逐年改善，因此將造成保單在設計時可能將遭受到長壽風險的影響。本篇文章的主要目的即探討長壽風險對於保單責任準備金的影響，並以增額型終身壽險作為本文主要分析標的。首先建構死亡率模型(Lee-Carter模型)，用來配適並模擬死亡率，接著探討增額型終身壽險在各保單年度下之現金流量以及責任準備金的提存，進一步再引進不同的死亡率來探討其現金流量分佈情形與責任準備金之提存。本文研究結果發現，在保險公司未採用遞迴方式計算保費時，當繳費期間愈短、複利利率愈高以及投保年齡愈低時，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，其後在帶入各種不同死亡率模型，發現死亡改善率愈高，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，而保險公司在提存責任準備金時，並未考慮到死亡改善率的部分，此對保險公司的財務健全將造成隱憂，本文於此部分建議監理機關透過法規(RBC)的制訂，調整準備金提存的係數，以降低長壽風險對保險公司財務之衝擊。 關鍵字：長壽風險、死亡率模型、增額型終身壽險、保單責任準備金、增額準備金、Lee-Carter Model以及RBC制度。 / With the improvement of medical technology, the life expectancy around the world is increasing year by year during the past decade. Therefore, the increasing whole life insurance policy is popular during these years because its benefits are escalating with time and policyholders think they could gain more benefits when they live longer. Like annuity policies, the increasing whole life insurance could also suffer from the longevity risk, which may have enormous impact on the financial statements of insurers. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of longevity risk on reserves, based on increasing whole life insurance policy. First, we construct Lee-Carter model to fit and simulate mortality rate and assume different mortality improvements from the 2002 Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table (2002TSO) for further comparisons. And then, we construct a simple model to analyze the cash flows of the increasing whole life policies based on the mortality rates we observed. By constructing a simple model and simulation, we find that if the insurance company does not correctly estimate longevity risk, the insurance company will lose money on the increasing whole life policies. In order to mitigate the insufficiency of life insurers for the increasing whole life policies, we try to provide some supervision suggestion from the view of the risk-based capital (RBC) requirements. We calculate the factor of insurance risk (C2) of RBC requirements because this factor represents the surplus needed to provide for excess claims over expected, both from random fluctuations and from inaccurate pricing for future levels of claims. Keywords: longevity risk, increasing whole life insurance policy, Lee-Carter model, risk-based capital (RBC).