In this study, we analyzed elderly people in Thailand to identify the validity of suggested cutoff points of physical measures, handgrip strength, usual walking speed, and a composite score of both measures to predict functional limitations. Moreover, we examined whether these physical performance measures are accurate indicators of the investigated health outcomes. Methods: Using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis, we investigated a sample of 8272 respondents aged 60 to 79 years. All data were based on the 2009 National Health Examination Survey (NHES IV) of Thailand. Results: For males aged 60 to 69 years, handgrip strength was used as an indicator of functional limitations. The cutoff point for disabilities in the activities of daily living (ADLs) was 29.5 kg, while in other limitations it ranged from 28.7 to 31.3 kg. In contrast, usual walking speed was able to indicate ADL disabilities at 0.7 m per second (m/s). As one might expect, the cutoff points for males aged 70 to 79 years were lower than for males in the 60 to 69 age group. For females, handgrip strength was able to indicate ADL disabilities at 16.5 kg for both the 60 to 69, and 70 to 79 age groups. Likewise, walking speed was indicative of ADL disabilities at 0.6 m/s for both age groups. Interestingly, the composite measure increases the ability to detect ADL disabilities in the younger group but not in the older group. The area under the curve (AUC) of cutoffs measuring the detection power of a diagnostic test was varied, ranging from 0.535 to 0.7386. Conclusions: The cutoff points of three measures varied according to sex and type of functional limitations. Our findings also showed that physical performance measures were useful for identifying people with an increased risk of functional limitations, particularly for ADL disabilities. However, although the AUC of the cutoffs of other functional limitations were relatively low, they should be considered with caution.

Os efeitos deletérios do álcool sobre a gestação bem como as dificuldades para detectar o problema vêm preocupando vários pesquisadores, sendo, por isso, necessário o desenvolvimento de instrumentos de triagem apropriados para a detecção do consumo alcoólico de risco para o desenvolvimento da Síndrome Alcoólica Fetal (SAF) durante a gestação. Este estudo teve por objetivo desenvolver uma versão brasileira do T-ACE através da tradução e adaptação de seu original (SOKOL et al, 1989), bem como proceder à validação deste instrumento de acordo com as condições e características nacionais. A amostra estudada constou de 450 gestantes no terceiro trimestre de gestação, assistidas em um serviço de atendimento pré-natal do município de Ribeirão Preto - SP. Os dados foram coletados através de entrevistas individuais para aplicação do T-ACE, do estabelecimento quantitativo da história de consumo de álcool ao longo da gestação e de entrevista clínica padronizada para diagnóstico de problemas relacionados com o uso de álcool de acordo com critérios da CID 10. Foram feitos também testes de confiabilidade entre diferentes entrevistadores e confiabilidade teste/re - teste. Entre as gestantes investigadas, 100 mulheres ou 22,1% da amostra foram consideradas positivas pelo instrumento, apresentando história de consumo alcoólico de risco (>=28g). As estimativas estatísticas para expressão da validade do T-ACE com o padrão de referência CID-10 e o padrão de consumo alcoólico trimestral do terceiro trimestre aos três meses que antecederam a gestação demonstraram resultados significativos para validação do T-ACE, que mostrou-se um instrumento de alta Sensibilidade e Especificidade. Esta validação representa a disponibilização de um instrumento que pode ser aplicado em dois minutos de entrevista, sensível para o rastreamento do consumo alcoólico de risco para a SAF e apropriado para as rotinas e práticas dos serviços obstétricos. / The deleterious effects of the alcohol in the gestation as well as difficulties detecting the problem have worrying several researchers. There is a need do develop appropriate screening instruments for the detection of alcohol consumption as a risk for the Fetal Alcoholic Syndrome (SAF). This study had as objective the development of a Brazilian version of the T-ACE through the translation and adaptation of its original (SOKOL et al, 1989), as well as to proceed to the validation of this instrument in agreement with the conditions and characteristics of the Brazilian population. The studied sample consisted of 450 pregnant women in the third gestational trimester, attended in a prenatal care unit of Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The data were collected through individual interviews for application of the T-ACE, with quantitative evaluation of the alcohol consumption along the gestational period. Furthermore, a standardized clinical interview was performed to diagnose problems related to the use of alcohol in agreement with ICD-10 criteria. Reliability tests among different interviewers and reliability test /re-test were made. Among the investigated pregnant women, 100 or 22,1% of the sample were considered positive for the instrument, presenting history of alcohol consumption of risk (>=28g). The statistics for validation of the T-ACE with the ICD-10 and the alcohol consumption patterns of reference, from the three months that preceded the pregnancy until the gestational third trimester, demonstrated significant and favorable results of this instrument. This validation allows the availability of a test that can be applied in two minutes of interview, sensitive for the screening of the alcohol consumption of risk for SAF and adapted for the routines and practices in prenatal care units.

Objetivo. O presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar o estado nutricional de escolares de 7 a 10 anos de idade, matriculados em duas escolas públicas município de São Paulo. Métodos. Foram utilizadas medidas de: peso, estatura, circunferência braquial, cintura, pregas cutâneas, bioimpedância elétrica (BIA), e medidas derivadas (área gordurosa do braço, % de gordura, índice de massa corporal (IMC) e índice estatura/idade. O estado nutricional foi avaliado segundo percentil do IMC utilizando como referência o CDC (2000). A mediana das variáveis antropométricas, IMC e da composição corporal foram comparadas aos valores da mediana de outras populações de referência. Para comparação de métodos, curvas tgROC, estratégia de Bland e Altman e coeficiente de correlação foram utilizadas. Resultados. A prevalência de desnutrição, risco de sobrepeso e sobrepeso foram de 4,5, 15,3% and 11%, respectivamente. Os valores da mediana das variáveis antropométricas e da composição corporal foram maiores, em grande parte, quando comparado aos valores medianos de outras populações de referência. Os valores do percentual de gordura estimado por dois diferentes métodos (BIA e pregas cutâneas) não foram semelhantes. As pregas cutâneas apresentaram melhor desempenho do que a BIA para classificar risco de sobrepeso e sobrepeso segundo IMC. Circunferência da cintura e area gordurosa do braço mostraram bom desempenho para identificar riscos de doenças cardiovasculares. Conclusões. Os métodos utilizados mostraram que os escolares apresentaram alta reserva de gordura, indicando a necessidade de ações de intervenções para melhoria da saúde dos escolares. / Objctive. To assess the nutrional status of schoolchildren from 7 to 10 years of age. Methods. Cross-sectional study in two public schools in the southeastern region of the city of Sao Paulo. Weight, height, arm and waist circunference (WC), skinfold thickness (triceps and calf), bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and derived indices and measurements ( upper arm and fat area (AFA), percentage of the bofy fat (% BF), body mass index (BMI) and height to age index were used. The nutritional status was assessed by BMI percentile using CDC 2000 curve. The data was presented in tables and graphics; comparisons were carried out by 95% confidence intervals, median values and Bland and Altman analysis. The performamces of measures of body composition to identify inadequate nutritional status and cut-off values were studied based on ROC and TGROC curves. Results. The foolowing prevalences were observed: underweight, 4.5%, risk of overweight, 15.3% and overweight 11.0%. The median of the anthropometric measurements and body composition were greater than in previous studies. The percentage of fat values depends on the method used for its estimation. Skinfold thickness presents better performance than BIA ti identify excess of weight when BMI was taken as a reference method. WC and AFA showed good performance to identify risk of cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions. Schoolchildren from 7 to 10 years of age present high levels of body fat reserve. These conditions indicate the need for health interventions.

Para Czeresnia (1999), a promoção da saúde representa um conjunto de idéias capazes de redirecionar as práticas em saúde pública. Entre elas, é de se destacar, o instituto recente no espaço da educação formal do conceito de escolas promotoras de saúde. Implícitos neste conceito estão às práticas pedagógicas e ações efetivas com o intuito do desenvolvimento de princípios, valores, atitudes e condutas frente à melhoria da qualidade de vida e ao aprimoramento das bases para hábitos de vida mais ativos. Neste cenário, emergem as preocupações do professor de educação física com o desenvolvimento da aptidão cardiorrespiratória desde a fase escolar no que se refere a menor probabilidade do surgimento de doenças cardiovasculares na idade adulta. A partir disto, os objetivos desta tese são: a) apresentar alguns aspectos históricos relacionados à promoção da saúde no âmbito internacional e nacional e, conseqüentemente, salientar a importância desse quadro teórico na fundamentação das escolas promotoras de saúde e, especificamente, na perspectiva de ações inerentes à prática pedagógica relacionada à educação física escolar e disciplinas afins; b) propor pontos de corte para o teste de corrida e caminhada de 9 minutos considerando sua associação com marcadores biológicos de riscos cardiovasculares e c) identificar a probabilidade de escolares com razão de chances aumentada de fatores de risco cardiovascular a partir do teste de 9 minutos categorizados pelo índice de massa corporal (IMC) e sexo com os marcadores de triglicerídeos (TG), colesterol total (CT) e lipoproteínas de alta densidade (C-HDL). Este estudo caracteriza-se por uma demarcação na literatura sobre a promoção de saúde no contexto escolar e uma verificação empírica com delineamento transversal. Para os aspectos históricos e conceituais da promoção da saúde, recorreu-se à literatura nacional e internacional. Por sua vez, para a verificação empírica, a amostra foi composta por 202 escolares (90 masculino e 112 feminino) de 12 a 17 anos no ano de 2008 e 2009 de uma escola privada de Porto Alegre-RS. Os escolares foram classificados segundo sexo e faixa de idade. O desempenho do teste de corrida e caminhada de 9 minutos foi baseado nos protocolos do Projeto Esporte Brasil - PROESP-BR (2007), e medidas corporais (peso e estatura) para cálculo de massa corporal foi proposto por Conde Monteiro (2006). Os marcadores biológicos - Triglicerídeos (TG), Colesterol total (CT), Lipoproteína de alta densidade (C-HDL) - foram categorizados de acordo com a Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia (2005) e mensurados através de exame sangüíneo in loco por um laboratório. Para a verificação dos pontos de cortes (avaliação por critério), foi utilizada a Curva ROC (característica operatória do receptor). Na análise da Curva ROC procurou-se considerar o marcador biológico para sexo e faixa de idade que apresentasse a maior área sob a curva ROC. No intuito de averiguar a probabilidade de predição, realizou-se a associação entre o desempenho da RG e cada uma das variáveis mediante estimativas dos odds ratio ponderado a partir do teste de Qui-quadrado de Mantel-Haenszel (ORMH). Os intervalos de confiança adotados em todas as análises foram de 95%. Os dados foram tratados a partir do programa estatístico para ciências sociais - SPSS for windows (versão 13.0). Os principais resultados desta tese apontam para três considerações finais. Primeiramente o cenário apresentado no âmbito da promoção da saúde no contexto internacional e nacional e a valorização da escola como sendo uma unidade de convergência de ações focadas na melhoria da qualidade de vida de crianças e adolescentes, se tornam relevantes para o desenvolvimento de ações voltadas à promoção da saúde, tais como: criação de ambientes favoráveis, envolvimento da comunidade e do setor político, pesquisas na área da promoção da saúde e investimentos financeiros, públicos e privados. Para isto, evidenciamos duas facetas de análise. A promoção da saúde é centrada no indivíduo, com uma projeção para a família ou grupos a fim do desenvolvimento educacional de habilidades pessoais e comunitárias. Numa segunda abrangência, agregam-se ações do Estado a partir de um sistema de saúde convergindo para parcerias intersetoriais buscando superar a visão isolada e fragmentada na formulação e implementação de políticas e na organização do setor de saúde. Sendo assim, pudemos observar uma crescente preocupação da comunidade científica para investigar os princípios das escolas promotoras de saúde na rede de ensino considerando os aspectos da prevenção de fatores de risco, reabilitação e a conscientização das populações para efetiva participação nesses programas potencializando, portanto, futuras gerações mais saudáveis. Do ponto de vista dos modelos empíricos, a partir dos os marcadores biológicos utilizados neste estudo, notase como segunda consideração, que, para a definição dos pontos de cortes, o C-HDL apresentou maior área da Curva ROC em quatro das seis análises, o CT em uma e o TG na outra. Os valores encontrados de área sob a curva ROC variaram de 0,52 a 0,86. Os valores com melhores ajustamentos entre sensibilidade e especificidade apresentaram valores entre 0,32 e 0,89. Os pontos de corte encontrados foram crescentes ao longo das faixas de idade, e foram superiores para os meninos. Por fim, na análise do teste de 9 minutos como um preditor para à saúde, as análises demonstraram que os escolares localizados na categoria do IMC elevado e num baixo desempenho no teste de aptidão cardiorespiratória apresentaram quase 3 vezes (2, 904) mais probabilidade de ter fatores de risco cardiovascular aumentado, do que aqueles escolares com IMC normal e aptidão cardiorespiratória satisfatória em relação ao C-HDL. Também se notou que os escolares com um baixo desempenho no teste de 9 minutos apresentam quase 2 vezes (1,728 nos meninos e 1,645 nas meninas) mais probabilidade de ter fatores de risco aumentado de C-HDL; logo, esta investigação demarca que o teste proposto de aptidão cardiorespiratória é um adequado preditor para à saúde dos escolares. É neste contexto que a educação física escolar ocupa espaço de destaque na prevenção primária na perspectiva da promoção e educação para a saúde dos escolares. / To Czeresnia (1999), health promotion represents a set of ideas that can redirect public health practices. Among them, is to highlight the recent Institute within the formal education of the concept of health-promoting schools. Implicit in this concept are the teaching practices and effective actions in order to develop principles, values, attitudes and behaviors front to improve the quality of life and improving the basis for lifestyle more active. In this scenario, the emerging concerns of the physical education teacher with the development of cardiorespiratory fitness from the school stage as regards the less likely the emergence of cardiovascular disease in adulthood. From this, the goals are to: a) provide some historical aspects related to health promotion at national and international level and, therefore, emphasize the importance of this theoretical framework in the grounds of health-promoting schools, and specifically from the perspective of actions inherent in practice related to teaching physical education and related disciplines, b) proposed cutoff points for the 9 minutes running and walking test for considering their association with biological markers of cardiovascular risk and c) identify the likelihood of students with odds ratio increased cardiovascular risk factors from the test 9 minutes categorized by body mass index (BMI) and gender with the markers of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDLC). This study is characterized by a split in the literature on health promotion in the school context and an empirical cross-sectional. For historical and conceptual aspects of health promotion, appealed to the national and international literature. Turn to empirical verification, the sample consisted of 202 students (90 male and 112 female) from 12 to 17 years in 2008 and 2009 a private school in Porto Alegre-RS. Students were classified by sex and age group. The 9 minutes running and walking performance test was based on the Protocols Project Sport Brazil - PROESP-BR (2007), and body measurements (weight and height) to calculate body mass was proposed by Earl Miller (2006). Biological markers - Triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL-C) - were categorized according to the Brazilian Society of Cardiology (2005) and measured via blood test spot by a laboratory. Checking the cut-off points (evaluation criteria), we used the ROC (receiver operative characteristic). In the analysis of ROC curve sought to consider the biological marker for sex and age group to produce the largest area under the ROC curve. In order to determine the probability of prediction, there was an association between the performance of the GM and each of the variables by estimates of the odds ratio from the weighted chi-square Mantel-Haenszel (ORMH). The confidence intervals adopted in all tests were 95%. The data were treated from the statistical program for social sciences - SPSS for windows (version 13.0). The main results of this thesis point to three final considerations. First the scenario presented in the context of health promotion at national and international context and value of school as a unit of convergence of actions focused on improving the quality of life of children and adolescents, become relevant to the development of measures to promote health, such as creating supportive environments, community involvement and the political sector, research in health promotion and financial investments, public and private. For this, we observed two aspects of analysis. Health promotion is based on the individual, with a projection for the family or groups to the educational development of personal skills and community. In a second range, add up actions of the state from a health system converging on intersectoral partnerships seeking to overcome the fragmented and isolated view the formulation and implementation of policies and organization of the health sector. Therefore, we have seen a growing concern in the scientific community to investigate the principles of health-promoting schools in the school system considering the aspects of prevention of risk factors, rehabilitation and awareness of people for effective participation in these programs empowering, so future generations healthier. From the standpoint of empirical models, based on biological markers used in this study, there is a second consideration, which, for the definition of cut-off points, HDL-C showed greater area of the ROC curve in four of six tests , TC and TG in one the other. The values of area under the ROC curve varied from 0,52 to 0.86. Values with better adjustments between sensitivity and specificity varied from 0.32 to 0.89. The cutoff points were found growing along the tracks of age and were higher for boys. Finally, the test analysis of 9 minutes as a predictor of health, the analysis showed that the school located in the category of high BMI and a low performance in cardiorespiratory fitness had almost 3 times (2, 904) more likely to have factors of increased cardiovascular risk, than those students with normal BMI and cardiorespiratory fitness satisfactory in relation to HDL-C. It also noted that students with low performance in 9 minutes are nearly 2 times (1.728 to 1.645 in boys and girls) more likely to have increased risk factors of HDL-C, therefore, this research marks the proposed test of cardiorespiratory fitness is an adequate predictor for the health of schoolchildren. In this context, the physical education occupies a prominent space in the primary prevention with a view to promoting and health education of schoolchildren.

Os efeitos deletérios do álcool sobre a gestação bem como as dificuldades para detectar o problema vêm preocupando vários pesquisadores, sendo, por isso, necessário o desenvolvimento de instrumentos de triagem apropriados para a detecção do consumo alcoólico de risco para o desenvolvimento da Síndrome Alcoólica Fetal (SAF) durante a gestação. Este estudo teve por objetivo desenvolver uma versão brasileira do T-ACE através da tradução e adaptação de seu original (SOKOL et al, 1989), bem como proceder à validação deste instrumento de acordo com as condições e características nacionais. A amostra estudada constou de 450 gestantes no terceiro trimestre de gestação, assistidas em um serviço de atendimento pré-natal do município de Ribeirão Preto - SP. Os dados foram coletados através de entrevistas individuais para aplicação do T-ACE, do estabelecimento quantitativo da história de consumo de álcool ao longo da gestação e de entrevista clínica padronizada para diagnóstico de problemas relacionados com o uso de álcool de acordo com critérios da CID 10. Foram feitos também testes de confiabilidade entre diferentes entrevistadores e confiabilidade teste/re - teste. Entre as gestantes investigadas, 100 mulheres ou 22,1% da amostra foram consideradas positivas pelo instrumento, apresentando história de consumo alcoólico de risco (>=28g). As estimativas estatísticas para expressão da validade do T-ACE com o padrão de referência CID-10 e o padrão de consumo alcoólico trimestral do terceiro trimestre aos três meses que antecederam a gestação demonstraram resultados significativos para validação do T-ACE, que mostrou-se um instrumento de alta Sensibilidade e Especificidade. Esta validação representa a disponibilização de um instrumento que pode ser aplicado em dois minutos de entrevista, sensível para o rastreamento do consumo alcoólico de risco para a SAF e apropriado para as rotinas e práticas dos serviços obstétricos. / The deleterious effects of the alcohol in the gestation as well as difficulties detecting the problem have worrying several researchers. There is a need do develop appropriate screening instruments for the detection of alcohol consumption as a risk for the Fetal Alcoholic Syndrome (SAF). This study had as objective the development of a Brazilian version of the T-ACE through the translation and adaptation of its original (SOKOL et al, 1989), as well as to proceed to the validation of this instrument in agreement with the conditions and characteristics of the Brazilian population. The studied sample consisted of 450 pregnant women in the third gestational trimester, attended in a prenatal care unit of Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The data were collected through individual interviews for application of the T-ACE, with quantitative evaluation of the alcohol consumption along the gestational period. Furthermore, a standardized clinical interview was performed to diagnose problems related to the use of alcohol in agreement with ICD-10 criteria. Reliability tests among different interviewers and reliability test /re-test were made. Among the investigated pregnant women, 100 or 22,1% of the sample were considered positive for the instrument, presenting history of alcohol consumption of risk (>=28g). The statistics for validation of the T-ACE with the ICD-10 and the alcohol consumption patterns of reference, from the three months that preceded the pregnancy until the gestational third trimester, demonstrated significant and favorable results of this instrument. This validation allows the availability of a test that can be applied in two minutes of interview, sensitive for the screening of the alcohol consumption of risk for SAF and adapted for the routines and practices in prenatal care units.

The shortcomings of the proportion above cut (PAC) statistic used so prominently in the educational landscape renders it a very problematic measure for making correct inferences with student test data. The limitations of PAC-based statistics are more pronounced with cross-test comparisons due to their dependency on cut-score locations. A better alternative is using mean-based statistics that can translate to parametric effect-size measures. However, these statistics as well can be problematic. When Gaussian assumptions are not met, reasonable transformations of a score scale produce non-monotonic outcomes. The present study develops a distribution-wide approach to summarize trend, gap, and gap trend (TGGT) measures. This approach counters the limitations of PAC-based measures and mean-based statistics in addition to addressing TGGT-related statistics in a manner more closely tied to both the data and questions regarding student achievement. This distribution-wide approach encompasses visual graphics such as percentile trend displays and probability-probability plots fashioned after Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve methodology. The latter is framed as the P-P plot framework that was proposed by Ho (2008) as a way to examine trends and gaps with more consideration given to questions of scale and policy decisions. The extension in this study involves three main components: (1) incorporating Bayesian inference, (2) using a multivariate structure for longitudinal data, and (3) accounting for measurement error at the individual level. The analysis is based on mathematical assessment data comprising Grade 3 to Grade 7 from a large Midwestern school district. Findings suggest that PP-based effect sizes provide a useful framework to measure aggregate test score change and achievement gaps. The distribution-wide perspective adds insight by examining both visually and numerically how trends and gaps are affected throughout the score distribution. Two notable findings using the PP-based effect sizes were (1) achievement gaps were very similar between the Focal and Audit test, and (2) trend measures were significantly larger for the Audit test. Additionally, measurement error corrections using the multivariate Bayesian CTT approach had effect sizes disattenuated from those based on observed scores. Also, the ordinal-based effect size statistics were generally larger than their parametric-based counterparts, and this disattenuation was practically equivalent to that seen by accounting for measurement error. Finally, the rank-based estimator of P(X>Y) via estimated true scores had smaller standard errors than for its parametric-based counterpart.

對戰後中華民國外交的批判中最為嚴厲的一點，或許是「漢賊不兩立」。這樣的責難，幾乎抹煞了中華民國政府及外交官員們在政府遷台以來的外交努力，使得這一段看似已然定論的歷史，彷彿就是一段充滿挫折與敗退的過去。然而，不能否認的是，中華民國政府至今仍存續於台灣，且存活得極好，政府在外交及經貿上的作為，也確實頗具成績，不盡然如僅以邦交國數量看來地一無是處。本文便基於此，重行考察政府遷台之後，面對國際冷戰局面的變化，利用其看得見的手，以外交和經貿間的搭配，透過刻意的貿商活動及刻意的貿商阻撓，以國際為舞台謀生存、圖空間的努力。對外經貿實為中華民國政府捍衛、開拓外交關係上，極為重要的一項，隨著台灣這一經濟體的成長，也加重了中華民國政府在國際間的重要性，使中華民國政府在今日仍得以堅強的經貿實力為後盾，與諸國來往交流，從外交拓展經貿，到經貿鞏固外交，這是一條必須以歷史縱深觀察的發展脈絡。

<p>Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a neuroimaging technique used to study brain functionality to enhance our understanding of the brain. This technique is based on MRI, a painless, noninvasive image acquisition method without harmful radiation. Small local blood oxygenation changes which are reflected as small intensity changes in the MR images are utilized to locate the active brain areas. Radio frequency pulses and a strong static magnetic field are used to measure the correlation between the physical changes in the brain and the mental functioning during the performance of cognitive tasks.</p><p>This master thesis presents approaches for the analysis of fMRI data. The constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) which is able to exploit the spatio-temporal nature of an active area is presented and tested on real human fMRI data. The actual distribution of active brain voxels is not known in the case of real human data. To evaluate the performance of the diagnostic algorithms applied to real human data, a modified Receiver Operating Characteristics (modified ROC) which deals with this lack of knowledge is presented. The tests on real human data reveal the better detection efficiency with the constrained CCA algorithm.</p><p>A second aim of this thesis was to implement the promising technique of constrained CCA into the software environment SPM. To implement the constrained CCA algorithms into the fMRI part of SPM2, a toolbox containing Matlab functions has been programmed for the further use by neurological scientists. The new SPM functionalities to exploit the spatial extent of the active regions with CCA are presented and tested.</p>

This paper examines the relationship between the accounting conservatism construct and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Prior research has explored the link between accounting quality and bankruptcy prediction, but it has not examined the relationship between accounting conservatism and bankruptcy prediction. This study hypothesizes that the inclusion of conservatism metrics in the bankruptcy hazard model estimation process should have an incremental effect on the predictive ability of bankruptcy hazard models. This paper finds that the inclusion of conservatism metrics does enhance the predictive power of bankruptcy hazard models for certain subgroups of a population partitioned on the basis of accounting conservatism metrics.

Statistical models are often used for the prediction of future random variables. There are two types of prediction, point prediction and probabilistic prediction. The prediction accuracy is quantified by performance measures, which are typically based on loss functions. We study the estimators of these performance measures, the prediction error and performance scores, for point and probabilistic predictors, respectively. The focus of this thesis is to assess the prediction performance of survival models that analyze censored survival times. To accommodate censoring, we extend the inverse probability censoring weighting (IPCW) method, thus arbitrary loss functions can be handled. We also develop confidence interval procedures for these performance measures. We compare model-based, apparent loss based and cross-validation estimators of prediction error under model misspecification and variable selection, for absolute relative error loss (in chapter 3) and misclassification error loss (in chapter 4). Simulation results indicate that cross-validation procedures typically produce reliable point estimates and confidence intervals, whereas model-based estimates are often sensitive to model misspecification. The methods are illustrated for two medical contexts in chapter 5. The apparent loss based and cross-validation estimators of performance scores for probabilistic predictor are discussed and illustrated with an example in chapter 6. We also make connections for performance.