京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第20917号 / 理博第4369号 / 新制||理||1627(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科物理学・宇宙物理学専攻 / (主査)教授 嶺重 慎, 准教授 前田 啓一, 教授 太田 耕司 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Atmospheric planetary waves play a role in introducing variability to the low-latitude ionosphere. To better understand this coupling, this study investigates times when oscillations seen in both atmospheric planetary waves and ionospheric data-sets have similar periodicity. The planetary wave data-set used are temperature observations made by Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). These highlight periods during which 2-Day westward propagating wave-number 3 waves are evident in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The ionospheric data-set is Total Electron Content (TEC), which is used to identify periods during which the ionosphere appears to respond to the planetary waves. Data from KP and F10.7 indices are used to determine events that may be of external origin. A 17-year time-span from 2002 to 2018 is used for this analysis so that both times of solar minimum and maximum can be studied. To extract the periods of this collection of data a Morlet Wavelet analysis is used, along with thresholding to indicate events when similar periods are seen in each data-set. Trends are then determined, which can lead to verification of previous assumptions and new discoveries. / Master of Science / The thermosphere and ionosphere are impacted by many sources. The sun and the magnetosphere externally impact this system. Planetary waves, which originate in the lower atmosphere, internally impact this system. This interaction leads to periodic signatures in the ionosphere that reflect periodic signatures seen in the lower atmosphere, the sun and the magnetosphere. This study identifies these times of similar oscillations in the neutral atmosphere, the ionosphere, and the sun, in order to characterize these interactions. Events are cataloged through wavelet analysis and thresholding techniques. Using a time-span of 17 years, trends are identified using histograms and percentages. From these trends, the characteristics of this coupling can be concluded. This study is meant to confirm the theory and provide new insights that will hopefully lead to further investigation through modeling. The goal of this study is to gain a better understanding of the role that planetary waves have on the interaction of the atmosphere and the ionosphere.

A Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM) é formada pelo encontro da Corrente do Brasil (CB) com a Corrente das Malvinas (CM) no Atlântico Sul. Esta é uma das áreas mais energéticas do oceano global e é demarcada por um intenso gradiente meridional de temperatura. Imagens de satélites e observações in situ mostram a presença de meandros e vórtices, tanto ciclônicos como anticiclônicos, na região da CBM. Com o conhecimento de campos de anomalia da altura da superfície do mar (AASM) e campos de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) para a região da Frente Brasil-Malvinas (FBM) é possível se estimar a variação da energia associada às ondas de Rossby anuais e bianuais existentes em seu entorno e detectar a posição da frente termal existente nesta região. Nesse contexto, foi realizado o estudo do deslocamento meridional da FBM numa escala de tempo interanual, da variação do espectro de ondas de Rossby na CBM e da variabilidade associada ao campo médio de velocidades geostróficas absolutas. A comparação do espectro de ondas de Rossby na CBM para o período de 2001-2008 apresentou aumento da energia associada aos períodos anual e bianual em relação aos valores obtidos da análise do período de 1993-2000. Essa alteração do espectro não teve relação com a alteração média da frente termal detectada porém, houve aumento significativo da variabilidade meridional da posição da frente média, possivelmente devido a um aumento do fluxo da CB. Maior variabilidade também foi observada nos mapas de velocidade geostrófica para o mesmo período de 2001-2008. Estes mapas exibiram ainda um possível posicionamento mais austral da CB, corroborando o aumento da variabilidade oriundo da maior instabilidade gerada por ondas planetárias na região da CBM. / The Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) is formed by the encounter of the Brazil Current (BC) with the Malvinas Current (MC) at the South Atlantic ocean. This is one of the most energetic regions of the world oceans and it is characterized by intense meridional sea surface temperature gradients. Satellite data and in situ observations often reveal the presence of cyclonic and anticyclonic meanders and vortices at the BMC region. The sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and the sea surface temperature (SST) fields of the Brazil-Malvinas Frontal (BMF) region can be used to determine the energy variations associated with the annual and bi-annual Rossby waves that occur at its surroundings and to detect the position of the thermal front. Our study involved the determination of the BMF meridional displacement on an interannual scale, the spectral variations of the Rossby wave field at the BMC region, and the variability associated to the mean absolute geostrophic velocities. The Rossby wave spectra at the BMC for 2001-2008 show an increase of the energy associated with both the annual and bi--annual periods relative to the 1993-2000 interval. These spectral changes are not directly related to the mean changes in the thermal front region, however we detected a significant meridional variability of the mean position of the front most probably due to an increase in the BC flux. Large variations were also observed in the geostrophic velocity field for the 2001-2008 period. These maps exhibited a farther south location of the BC. This corroborates the variability increase due to a greater instability introduced by the planetary waves at the BMC region.

A Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM) é formada pelo encontro da Corrente do Brasil (CB) com a Corrente das Malvinas (CM) no Atlântico Sul. Esta é uma das áreas mais energéticas do oceano global e é demarcada por um intenso gradiente meridional de temperatura. Imagens de satélites e observações in situ mostram a presença de meandros e vórtices, tanto ciclônicos como anticiclônicos, na região da CBM. Com o conhecimento de campos de anomalia da altura da superfície do mar (AASM) e campos de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) para a região da Frente Brasil-Malvinas (FBM) é possível se estimar a variação da energia associada às ondas de Rossby anuais e bianuais existentes em seu entorno e detectar a posição da frente termal existente nesta região. Nesse contexto, foi realizado o estudo do deslocamento meridional da FBM numa escala de tempo interanual, da variação do espectro de ondas de Rossby na CBM e da variabilidade associada ao campo médio de velocidades geostróficas absolutas. A comparação do espectro de ondas de Rossby na CBM para o período de 2001-2008 apresentou aumento da energia associada aos períodos anual e bianual em relação aos valores obtidos da análise do período de 1993-2000. Essa alteração do espectro não teve relação com a alteração média da frente termal detectada porém, houve aumento significativo da variabilidade meridional da posição da frente média, possivelmente devido a um aumento do fluxo da CB. Maior variabilidade também foi observada nos mapas de velocidade geostrófica para o mesmo período de 2001-2008. Estes mapas exibiram ainda um possível posicionamento mais austral da CB, corroborando o aumento da variabilidade oriundo da maior instabilidade gerada por ondas planetárias na região da CBM. / The Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) is formed by the encounter of the Brazil Current (BC) with the Malvinas Current (MC) at the South Atlantic ocean. This is one of the most energetic regions of the world oceans and it is characterized by intense meridional sea surface temperature gradients. Satellite data and in situ observations often reveal the presence of cyclonic and anticyclonic meanders and vortices at the BMC region. The sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and the sea surface temperature (SST) fields of the Brazil-Malvinas Frontal (BMF) region can be used to determine the energy variations associated with the annual and bi-annual Rossby waves that occur at its surroundings and to detect the position of the thermal front. Our study involved the determination of the BMF meridional displacement on an interannual scale, the spectral variations of the Rossby wave field at the BMC region, and the variability associated to the mean absolute geostrophic velocities. The Rossby wave spectra at the BMC for 2001-2008 show an increase of the energy associated with both the annual and bi--annual periods relative to the 1993-2000 interval. These spectral changes are not directly related to the mean changes in the thermal front region, however we detected a significant meridional variability of the mean position of the front most probably due to an increase in the BC flux. Large variations were also observed in the geostrophic velocity field for the 2001-2008 period. These maps exhibited a farther south location of the BC. This corroborates the variability increase due to a greater instability introduced by the planetary waves at the BMC region.

Le phénomène El Niño est le mode dominant de la variabilité du climat aux échelles de temps interannuelles dans le Pacifique tropical. Il modifie considérablement le climat régional dans les pays voisins, dont le Pérou pour lequel les impacts socio-économiques peuvent être dramatiques. Comprendre et prévoir El Niño reste un enjeu prioritaire pour la communauté climatique. Des progrès significatifs dans notre compréhension du phénomène El Niño et dans notre capacité à le prédire ont été réalisés dans les années 80, en particulier grâce à la mise en place du système d'observation dans le Pacifique tropical (programme de TOGA, en particulier, ainsi que l'émergence de l'ère des satellites). À la fin du XXe siècle, alors que de nouvelles théories scientifiques ont été proposées et testées, les progrès réalisés dans le domaine de la modélisation numérique et de l'assimilation de données ont conduit à l'idée que le phénomène El Niño pourrait être prévu avec au moins deux ou trois saisons à l'avance. Or, depuis le début du 21ième siècle, les manifestations du phénomène El Niño ont réduit cette expectative: un nouveau type d'El Niño est a été découvert - identifié par des anomalies de température moins intenses et localisées dans le centre du Pacifique équatorial. Ce phénomène, connu sous le nom CP El Niño pour El Niño Pacifique Central ou El Niño Modoki a placé la communauté scientifique devant un nouveau défi. Cette thèse est une contribution à l'effort international actuel pour comprendre la dynamique de ce nouveau type d'El Niño, dans le but de proposer des mécanismes expliquant sa présence accrue au cours des dernières décennies. Plus précisément, l'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier le rôle des ondes longues équatoriales dans le Pacifique tropical sur la dynamique océanique et la thermodynamique associées au phénomène El Niño de type Pacifique Central. Cette thèse s'intéresse tout d'abord au premier CP El Niño du 21ième siècle, le phénomène El Niño 2002/03, à partir des sorties d'un modèle de circulation océanique général. Ensuite, nous documentons les caractéristiques des ondes équatoriales de Kelvin aux fréquences Intra Saisonnières (ISKw) sur la période 1990-2011, fournissant une statistique de l'activité des ondes ISKw durant l'évolution des événements El Niño de type Central Pacifique. Nos résultats montrent que l'onde ISKw subit une forte dissipation dans le Pacifique Est, qui est interprétée comme provenant de la dispersion des ondes lorsqu'elles rencontrent le front zonal de la stratification dans l'Est du Pacifique (i.e. la pente de la thermocline d'Ouest en Est). Une réflexion partielle de l'onde ISKw en onde de Rossby équatoriale de près de 120°W est également identifiée, ce qui peut expliquer le confinement dans le Pacifique central des anomalies de température de surface associées aux événements El Niño de type Central Pacifique. Nous suggérons que la fréquence accrue au cours des dernières années des événements CP El Niño peut être associée à l'état froid - de type La Niña - observé dans le Pacifique Equatorial depuis les années 90 et les changements dans la variabilité saisonnière de la profondeur de la thermocline depuis les années 2000. / The El Niño phenomenon is the dominant mode of climate variability at interannual timescales in the tropical Pacific. It modifies drastically the regional climate in surrounding countries, including Peru for which the socio-economical impacts can be dramatic. Understanding and predicting El Niño remains a top-priority issue for the climatic community. Large progress in our understanding of El Niño and in our ability to predict it has been made since the 80s thanks to the improvement of the observing system of the tropical Pacific (TOGA program and emergence of the satellite era). At the end of the Twentieth century, whereas new theories were proposed and tested, progress in numerical modeling and data assimilation led to the idea that El Niño could be predicted with at least 2 or 3 seasons in advance. The observations since the beginning of the 21st century have wiped out such expectation: A new type of El Niño, known as the Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) or Modoki El Niño has put the community in front of a new challenge. This thesis is a contribution to the current international effort to understand the dynamics of this new type of El Niño in order to propose mechanisms explaining its increased occurrence in recent decades. More specifically, the objective of the thesis is to study the role of the oceanic equatorial waves in the dynamic and thermodynamic along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, focusing on the CP El Niño. This thesis first takes a close look at the first CP El Niño of the 21st century of this type, i.e. the 2002/03 El Niño, based on an Oceanic General Circulation Model. Then it documents the characteristics of the IntraSeasonal Kelvin waves (ISKws) over the period 1990-2011, providing a statistics on the ISKws activity during the evolution of CP El Niño events. We find that the ISKw experiences a sharp dissipation in the eastern Pacific that is interpreted as resulting from the scattering of energy associated to the zonal contrast in stratification (i.e. sloping thermocline from west to east). Partial reflection of the ISKw as Rossby waves near 120°W is also identified, which may explain the confinement of CP El Niño warming in the central Pacific. We suggest that the increased occurrence of CP El Niño in recent years may be associated to the La Niña-like state since the 90s and changes in the seasonality of the thermocline since the 2000s.

<p>Several physical mechanisms concerning the impact of Rossby waves on ozone distribution and circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere are studied in the thesis.</p><p>Summertime total ozone variability over Middle Asia and Northern Scandinavia shows similar wave-like behaviour with typical periods of 10-20 days and amplitudes of 20-50 Dobson units. These variations are caused by eastward travelling Rossby waves in the lower stratosphere. The same mechanism plays the primary role in the formation of an intense low ozone episode over Scandinavia in August 2003. A strong anticyclone was formed in the troposphere over Europe as a part of a Rossby wave train. The anticyclone coincides with a displaced Artic pool of low-ozone air in the stratosphere aloft of the anticyclone. A combination of the two above-mentioned processes results in the total ozone minimum over Northern Europe for summer 2003.</p><p>Interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation and total ozone during winter is strongly controlled by the diabatic (Brewer-Dobson) circulation which is driven by upward propagating waves from the troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, wintertime total ozone shows antiphase behaviour with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index on interannual and decadal time-scales. Weaker (stronger) wave activity leads to less (more) northward ozone transport and to a stronger (weaker) AO.</p><p>Rossby wave activity occurs as episodic wave events and this wave forcing is not uniform during winter. The November-December stratospheric eddy heat flux is strongly anticorrelated with the January-February eddy heat flux in the midlatitude stratosphere and troposphere. Weaker upward wave fluxes in early winter lead to stronger upward wave fluxes from the troposphere as well as to a stronger polar night jet during midwinter and vice versa. Hence upward wave activity fluxes in early winter define, to a considerable extent, the subsequent evolution of the midwinter circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere.</p>

Several physical mechanisms concerning the impact of Rossby waves on ozone distribution and circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere are studied in the thesis. Summertime total ozone variability over Middle Asia and Northern Scandinavia shows similar wave-like behaviour with typical periods of 10-20 days and amplitudes of 20-50 Dobson units. These variations are caused by eastward travelling Rossby waves in the lower stratosphere. The same mechanism plays the primary role in the formation of an intense low ozone episode over Scandinavia in August 2003. A strong anticyclone was formed in the troposphere over Europe as a part of a Rossby wave train. The anticyclone coincides with a displaced Artic pool of low-ozone air in the stratosphere aloft of the anticyclone. A combination of the two above-mentioned processes results in the total ozone minimum over Northern Europe for summer 2003. Interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation and total ozone during winter is strongly controlled by the diabatic (Brewer-Dobson) circulation which is driven by upward propagating waves from the troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, wintertime total ozone shows antiphase behaviour with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index on interannual and decadal time-scales. Weaker (stronger) wave activity leads to less (more) northward ozone transport and to a stronger (weaker) AO. Rossby wave activity occurs as episodic wave events and this wave forcing is not uniform during winter. The November-December stratospheric eddy heat flux is strongly anticorrelated with the January-February eddy heat flux in the midlatitude stratosphere and troposphere. Weaker upward wave fluxes in early winter lead to stronger upward wave fluxes from the troposphere as well as to a stronger polar night jet during midwinter and vice versa. Hence upward wave activity fluxes in early winter define, to a considerable extent, the subsequent evolution of the midwinter circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere.

Stationary wave theory elucidates the dynamics of the time mean zonally asymmetric component of the atmospheric circulation and separates it from the dynamics of the zonal mean climatological flow. This thesis focuses on the dynamics of stationary wave nonlinearity and its applications in stationary wave modelling and the stationary wave response to climate change. Stationary wave nonlinearity describes the self-interaction of stationary waves and is important in maintaining the observed zonally asymmetric atmospheric general circulation. Stationary wave nonlinearity is examined in quasi-geostrophic barotropic dynamics in both the presence and absence of transient waves. Stationary wave nonlinearity is shown to account for most of the difference between the linear and full nonlinear stationary waves, particularly if the zonal-mean flow adjustment to the stationary waves is taken into account. Wave activity analysis shows that stationary wave nonlinearity in this setting is associated with Rossby wave critical layer reflection. A time-integration type nonlinear stationary wave modelling technique is tested in this simple barotropic setting and is shown to be able to predict stationary wave nonlinearity and capture the basic features of the full nonlinear stationary wave. A baroclinic nonlinear stationary wave model is then developed using this technique and is applied to the problem of the stationary wave response to climate change. Previous stationary wave modelling has largely focused on the tropospheric circulation, but the stationary wave field extends into the stratosphere and plays an important dynamical role there. This stationary wave model is able to represent the stratospheric stationary wave field and is used to analyze the Northern Hemisphere stationary wave response to climate change simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). In the CMAM simulation changes to the zonal mean basic state alone can explain much of the stationary wave response, which is largely controlled by changes of the zonal mean circulation in the Northern Hemisphere subtropical upper troposphere. However, details of the stratospheric wave driving response are also sensitive to other aspects of the zonal-mean response and to the heating response. Many climate change related effects appear to contribute robustly to an increased wave activity flux into the stratosphere.

Stationary wave theory elucidates the dynamics of the time mean zonally asymmetric component of the atmospheric circulation and separates it from the dynamics of the zonal mean climatological flow. This thesis focuses on the dynamics of stationary wave nonlinearity and its applications in stationary wave modelling and the stationary wave response to climate change. Stationary wave nonlinearity describes the self-interaction of stationary waves and is important in maintaining the observed zonally asymmetric atmospheric general circulation. Stationary wave nonlinearity is examined in quasi-geostrophic barotropic dynamics in both the presence and absence of transient waves. Stationary wave nonlinearity is shown to account for most of the difference between the linear and full nonlinear stationary waves, particularly if the zonal-mean flow adjustment to the stationary waves is taken into account. Wave activity analysis shows that stationary wave nonlinearity in this setting is associated with Rossby wave critical layer reflection. A time-integration type nonlinear stationary wave modelling technique is tested in this simple barotropic setting and is shown to be able to predict stationary wave nonlinearity and capture the basic features of the full nonlinear stationary wave. A baroclinic nonlinear stationary wave model is then developed using this technique and is applied to the problem of the stationary wave response to climate change. Previous stationary wave modelling has largely focused on the tropospheric circulation, but the stationary wave field extends into the stratosphere and plays an important dynamical role there. This stationary wave model is able to represent the stratospheric stationary wave field and is used to analyze the Northern Hemisphere stationary wave response to climate change simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). In the CMAM simulation changes to the zonal mean basic state alone can explain much of the stationary wave response, which is largely controlled by changes of the zonal mean circulation in the Northern Hemisphere subtropical upper troposphere. However, details of the stratospheric wave driving response are also sensitive to other aspects of the zonal-mean response and to the heating response. Many climate change related effects appear to contribute robustly to an increased wave activity flux into the stratosphere.

Decadal variations in climate are important, because the magnitude of sustained decadal change is often much larger than the often discussed background trends. Climate variability at interannual and longer periods is most often discussed in the context of climate modes defined by sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. However, SLP and SST are not capable descriptors of ocean dynamics. The approximately two decades of global sea surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimetry reveal substantial low-frequency redistributions of heat and salt in the ocean, which may or may not be related to defined climate modes. In addition, coastal sea level responds directly to synoptic variability in the atmosphere, providing long records of weather events in coastal areas. The unifying idea in the following analyses is the value and versatility of SSH from altimetry and sea level from tide gauges for investigations of decadal climate variability. Three applications of SSH and coastal sea level to the study of decadal change demonstrate the merits of using sea level for investigations of oceanic and atmospheric, episodic and continuous processes. The analyses concern a multidecadal change in storminess along the coast of the Southeast U.S., basin-scale coherent sea level variations in the western boundary of the North Atlantic, and the low-frequency response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing in the Northeast Pacific.