Bakgrund: 1 januari 2013 kommer Direktivet (2009/138/EG) för Solvens II att implementeras. Detta kommer ske samtidigt inom Europeiska Unionen (EU) och kommer leda till en harmonisering av försäkringslagstiftning i medlemsstaterna. Tidigare svensk lagstiftning, Försäkringsrörelselagen (2010:2043), kommer med andra ord att anpassas till det nya regelverket. Regeländring kan komma att påverka svenska försäkringsbolags bedrivna kapitalförvaltning. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om svenska försäkringsbolag utifrån rådande lagstiftning kan bedriva en, enligt finansiell teori, rationell kapitalförvaltning och om möjligheten till att bedriva en rationell kapitalförvaltning kommer att förändras i och med implementeringen av Solvens II. Genomförande: En genomgång av dagens regelverk, Försäkringsrörelselagen, samt Direktivet (2009/138/EG) för Solvens II kommer att presenteras. Utöver detta har fem stycken intervjuer med svenska försäkringsbolag genomförts. Slutsats: Dagens lagstiftning ger inte möjligheter till att bedriva en rationell kapitalförvaltning fullt ut. Solvens II kommer att förbättra försäkringsbolagens möjligheter att bedriva en rationell kapitalförvaltning. Försäkringsbolagen bedriver idag en förvaltning som till stor del kan anses vara rationell utifrån finansiell teori. Dock finns det vissa områden inom förvaltningen som skiljer sig från teorins bild. / Background: January 1, 2013, Directive (2009/138/EC) of Solvency II will be implemented. This will take place simultaneously in the European Union (EU) and will lead to a harmonization of insurance laws of the member states. Former Swedish legislation, Försäkringsrörelselagen (2010:2043), will therefore be adapted to the new framework. The rule change may affect Swedish insurance companies’ asset management. Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to examine if Swedish insurance companies can apply rational asset management theory when Solvency II is implemented and if changes will occur in the asset management strategies. Implementation: A review of current regulations, Försäkringsrörelselagen (2010:2043), and Directive (2009/138/EC) of Solvency II will be presented. In addition, five interviews with Swedish insurance companies have been done. Conclusion: The current legislation does not provide opportunities to fully apply rational asset management. Solvency II will improve the insurance companies' ability to pursue a rational asset management. The asset management in Swedish insurance companies currently adopts strategies that to high extent comply with generally accepted financial theories. However, there are certain areas within the asset management that deviate from these financial theories.

Basel III和Solvency II 對法國銀行系統的影響 / Following the 2008 financial crisis and the 2010 European Sovereign crisis, regulators and supervisors were urged to improve and reinforce the regulation of the banking system in order to prevent and assist banks from failing and provoking a system-wide crisis. Similarly some measures have been taken to regulate and reinforce the insurance industry in the EU. Basel III accords have been set up as an emergency measure and response to the financial crisis that hit the world in 2008 following a liquidity crisis that has started in 2007. Basel II framework had never been made to resist a system wide crisis and was not anymore effective in regulating the banking industry following the important deregulations that happened in the 2000s. Similarly to Basel, the primary goal of Solvency II is to prevent (with a 99.5% probability or 1 chance over 200) a company from ceasing payments and/or going bankruptcy. It has therefore introduced a complete framework relying as well on three pillars which have been adapted to the constraints and specificities of the insurance industry. Bank-insurances which are companies offering both insurance and banking services are therefore subject to both regulations. Moreover despite increasing their offerings, bank-insurer have to adapt to a complex maturing environment. The future of their business strongly depends upon their strategic choices regarding growth, profitability and mandatory compliance to regulation. They need to start and/or accelerate their transformation strategy in order to take into account this changing environment. The regulations are becoming more binding and therefore questioning the model of a global bank (as the banks have to increase their level of required capital). Despite these challenges, they still have an important role to play on the French Market.

The topic of this master thesis is the application of BI (Business Intelligence) Solutions in the insurance industry. The main objectives are the creation of model analyses and the design and implementation of partial BI solutions on the QlikView platform for smaller non-life insurance companies. The model also takes into consideration aspects of the new EU insurance regulatory directive, Solvency II, by selecting input parameters needed for the calculation of premium and reserve risk using segmentation rules from the lines of business specified in the directive. The thesis consists of three main parts. The first focuses on the QlikView BI platform, its market place, architecture, SW components and the technologies it takes advantage of. It also examines the differences and specific aspects of developing a BI solution using QlikView, compared to other more traditional platforms - one of these aspects is associative data modeling. The second part of the thesis focuses on the financial risks that insurance companies are exposed to, methods for their quantification and techniques that are used for solvency determination -- based upon Solvency II guidelines -- using SCR (Solvency Capital Requirement) and MCR (Minimum Capital Requirement) indicators. Particular chapters explain the concept behind the Solvency II directives and demonstrate the structure of standard formulae used for SCR calculations, which are used for ascertaining the Premium and/or Reserve risk. The final part of the thesis builds upon the earlier sections and contains practical instructions and recommendations for the development of BI solutions based on the QlikView platform in smaller non-life insurance companies. A designed model of the BI application can primarily be used for basic corporate performance monitoring but can also assist in the partial calculation of some risk categories according to the Solvency II directives. The practical section -- which is the ultimate product and the main benefit of this master thesis -- expands beyond the theory to provide a basic conceptual framework for the development of BI applications in small insurance company environments.

歐盟保險業新監理架構Solvency II 於第5 次量化衝擊研究完成後計畫將在近年正式施行，我國保險業監理制度是否朝採用Solvency II 架構的方向前進仍未為定論，但必頇先行瞭解採行此制度可能對業界造成的影響。 本研究以2010 年8 月時CEIOPS 對Solvency II 所進行的第5 次量化衝擊研究QIS5 設立的標準與原則，對公司的資產與負債做假設後，以公帄價值法衡量壽險公司各部位資產位與負債，包括準備金的公帄價值衡量，並利用QIS5 所提供之計算工具標準法計算四家台灣壽險公司在2009 年底時的清償資本要求SCR。而QIS5 是在金融風暴後不久，當時環境使得利率極低，為了估算在利率環境較正常的情況下，本研究以2007 年底之利率做敏感度分析，重新計算各公司之資產與負債狀況與清償資本要求SCR。 研究結果發現在本研究假設下，負債面的準備金提存不足，保險公司以經濟 資本角度來衡量已經屬於破產狀態。投資型分離帳戶以外的準備金計算與目前準備金計提的方式除了頇以公帄價值衡量保險責任的最佳估計外，另外需要計提風險邊際，此數額約為最佳估計總額的12.4%至30.2%，保險公司自有資本不足有很大的因素是由於此部分準備金的計提。 也發現所計算出的SCR 中所最大的比率為利率風險或匯率風險，在假設以較 高利率環境做敏感度分析後發現壽險公司淨值仍然為負數，且所需要的SCR 與之前所得結果相差不大，顯示壽險公司負債部位對利率敏感度相當高，即使曝險部位變少，對於未來的利率變動仍需要準備相當大的資本以防範虧損。 / After the completion of the Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS5) for the new insurance industrial regulation framework- Solvency II, European Union planned to implement the project in few years. No matter that the regulatory system of insurance industry in Taiwan will follow the trend or will not, it is a must that we should estimate the impacts on the whole industry before making the decisions. This study have an aim to estimate the Solvency Capital Requirements of 4 life insurance companies in Taiwan in the same principles with QIS5, which were took place in August 2010 by CEIOPS. In order to calculate the SCR, we made a lot of hypotheses and then estimated the fair value of the company assets and liabilities, including the fair value of technical provision. By means of the calculating helpers provided by CEIOPS used in QIS5, we found out the SCRs of these companies when they were on 31 December 2009. Then we performed the sensitivity analysis by the different interest rate which is based on the data on 31 December 2007, and recalculated the SCRs of the companies. This study had conclusions that the technical provisions were not sufficient to fulfill the obligations in aspect of the economic value. The surplus of companies were exhausted, because the technical provisions increased by fair valuation. Also, the heavy loadings of risk margins as 12.4% to 30.2% of the best estimates were the important reason of the negative own fund. We found that the capital requirements of interest risk and currency risk took great percentages of total SCRs. And the SCRs will not reduce in great amount caused by technical provisions reduced in the situation that interest rate come back to the level in 2007. It showed that the SCRs had great sensitivity to the interest risk and insurance companies should prepare sufficient own fund to prevent financial crisis caused by interest rate shock.

Under the current regulatory regime for insurance undertakings, Solvency I, the required capital margin does not depend on the allocation of investments, i.e. it is not sensitive to market risk arising from the volatility of market prices for e.g. equity, bond or real estate investments. To improve the protection of policyholders and create a unified regulatory regime in all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA), a risk-sensitive, forward-looking and principle-based regulatory accord for insurance undertakings called Solvency II will replace the current regime by 01.01.2016. Unlike Solvency I, Solvency II requires the backing up of any investment in risky assets with risk capital rather than imposing investment limits. Own funds eligible to cover the solvency capital requirements under Solvency II shall be based on the difference of market-consistently valuated assets and liabilities in the Solvency II balance sheet. In this thesis, I first summarize academic contributions as well as opinions from industry representatives on the expected consequences of the current calibration of the Solvency II standard formula. The accuracy of the calibration itself is another focal point of this work. This work contains four scientific papers. The first paper examines the presence of contagion effects between Eurozone countries in the period 2008-2012. In a market-consistent valuation approach like Solvency II contagion effects intensify the volatility of own funds and therefore of the solvency ratio of insurers. The intensity of contagion peaked in 2010 and first half of 2011 but decreased subsequently which is likely to be a consequence of bailout measures by the EU and the IMF and ECB interventions. The second and third paper address the zero risk charge for sovereign debt issued by EU member states assumed under the Solvency II standard formula. If one accepts German bond yields to be a risk-free asset, using modern cointegration techniques I showed that bonds of only one third of EU member countries can be perceived as risk-free as well. The fourth paper provides evidence for convergence in the shock-response-behavior of the stock indices of Germany, UK and France during the past decades, which in turn indicates support for the assumption of a perfect tail correlation between listed equity in the Solvency II standard formula.

Fiziniams asmenims pradedant skolintis daugiau nei jie sugeba grąžinti kyla visai visuomenei itin aktualios ir jautrios problemos, t.y. fizinio asmens nemokumo problemos. Lietuvoje fizinio asmens nemokumo problemos pradėtos spręsti 2012 metais priėmus Fizinių asmenų bankroto įstatymą, kuris įtvirtino tik vieną fizinio asmens mokumo atkūrimo būdą – bankrotą. Šiame magistro baigiamajame darbe yra analizuojamas ir lyginamas fizinio asmens nemokumo institutas Lietuvoje, Didžiojoje Britanijoje, Vokietijoje ir Latvijoje. Kiekviena valstybė šį institutą reglamentuoja skirtingai, todėl darbe yra siekiama išanalizuoti šios reglamentacijos skirtumus ir taip nustatyti Lietuvos Respublikos fizinių asmenų bankroto įstatymo galimas pataisas. Tyrime yra remiamasi visų keturių minėtų valstybių fizinio asmens nemokumą reglamentuojančiais teisės aktais, specialiąja literatūra bei įvairių valstybinių institucijų statistiniais duomenimis. Darbe taip pat yra nagrinėjamos fizinio asmens nemokumo ir bankroto sąvokos, nustatomi fizinio asmens nemokumo instituto modeliai ir reglamentavimo kryptys, taip pat fizinio asmens nemokumo problemos ir jų sprendimo būdai. Didžiausias dėmesys yra skiriamas konkrečių fizinio asmens mokumo atkūrimo procedūrų palyginimui Lietuvoje, Didžiojoje Britanijoje, Vokietijoje ir Latvijoje. Detaliai išanalizuojamas kiekvienas konkretus nemokumo procedūrų aspektas, nustatomi skirtumai ir panašumai šių valstybių teisiniame instituto reglamentavime. Atlikus tyrimą gauti... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / If natural persons begin borrowing more than they afford to repay, this causes sensitive problems particularly relevant to the entire society, i.e. problems of insolvency of a natural person. In Lithuania, solutions of insolvency problems of a natural person began after adopting the Law on Bankruptcy of Natural Persons in 2012 which established only one solvency restoration method of natural persons – the bankruptcy. This Master's thesis analyses and compares the insolvency institute of a natural person in Lithuania, Great Britain, Germany and Latvia. Every state has different regulation of this institute, therefore the aim of work is to analyse the differences of this regulation and determine potential amendments of the Law on Bankruptcy of Natural Persons of the Republic of Lithuania. The research is based on the legislation governing the insolvency of natural persons in all four of the aforementioned countries, specialist literature and statistics of various state institutions. The paper also analyses the concepts of natural person’s insolvency and bankruptcy, identifies the models of natural person’s insolvency institute and regulatory areas, as well as insolvency problems of natural persons and ways of addressing them. The main focus is placed on the comparison of specific procedures for restoration of solvency of natural persons in Lithuania, Great Britain, Germany and Latvia. The paper contains a detailed analysis of each specific aspect of insolvency proceedings... [to full text]

La directive Solvabilité II, soumise par la Commission Européenne en 2009, est rentrée en application en janvier 2016. Elle se base sur trois piliers. Le premier pilier traite des obligations quantitatives liées au calcul du capital de solvabilité requis. Le second pilier traite de la gouvernance des risques. Le troisième pilier concerne les documents et informations requis, la discipline de marché. Pour l’assurance vie, les obligations quantitatives (pilier I et une partie du pilier II) introduisent un haut niveau de complexité. En effet, pour créer un dispositif adapté aux spécificités des entreprises, la directive a introduit un cadre de valorisation du bilan des assureurs très délicat à comprendre et utiliser, la valorisation économique. Du fait de cette complexité, la plupart des assureurs vie européens ont, durant leurs premières années passées à implémenter la directive, choisi de se focaliser sur le pilier I en sachant que le calcul de l’exigence en capital serait une part essentielle du dispositif. Dans cette thèse, j’ai choisi de concentrer mon travail sur le second pilier de la directive et plus précisément sur le processus Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA). Cet outil réglementaire est en fait la seconde source de complexité majeure de Solvabilité II. C’est un processus de gestion des risques totalement intégré à l’entreprise dont l’objectif est de mener les assureurs à une meilleure compréhension de leurs risques. Au cours de mon travail, j’ai cherché à conceptualiser et à proposer des mises en œuvre opérationnelles pour répondre aux problématiques induites par l’ORSA (calcul du Besoin Global de Solvabilité et Conformité Permanente). Enfin, au travers d’un travail commun avec N. El Karoui, S. Loisel et J.-L. Prigent, nous avons analysé et exemplifié certains des dangers majeurs induits par la valorisation économique / The Solvency II directive issued in 2009 by the European Commission has been put into action in January 2016. It is based on three pillars. The first pillar addresses the quantitative requirements to assess the Solvency capital needs. The second pillar, more qualitative, addresses the risks governance. The third pillar addresses the required disclosures. For life insurance, the quantitative requirements (pillar I and a part of pillar II) have introduced a high level of complexity. Indeed, to create an entity-adapted scheme, the directive has developed a very specific process to evaluate the insurance balance sheets, namely the economic valuation. Considering this complexity, most European life insurances have chosen to focus on pillar I, at the beginning of the implementation of the directive, the regulatory capital assessment being an essential part of the solvency scheme. In this thesis I focus my work on the second pillar of the directive and more precisely on the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) process. This regulatory tool is the second major source of complexity when implementing the directive. It is a completely undertaking-embedded risk management process which aims to deepen the insurance knowledge of its risks. In my work I have tried to conceptualize and propose operational implementations to answer the ORSA issues (Overall Solvency Needs assessment and continuous compliance). Finally, through a joint work with N. El Karoui, S. Loisel and J.-L. Prigent, we have underlined, analyzed and exemplified some of the major hazard sources induced by the economic valuation

Under the current regulatory regime for insurance undertakings, Solvency I, the required capital margin does not depend on the allocation of investments, i.e. it is not sensitive to market risk arising from the volatility of market prices for e.g. equity, bond or real estate investments. To improve the protection of policyholders and create a unified regulatory regime in all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA), a risk-sensitive, forward-looking and principle-based regulatory accord for insurance undertakings called Solvency II will replace the current regime by 01.01.2016. Unlike Solvency I, Solvency II requires the backing up of any investment in risky assets with risk capital rather than imposing investment limits. Own funds eligible to cover the solvency capital requirements under Solvency II shall be based on the difference of market-consistently valuated assets and liabilities in the Solvency II balance sheet. In this thesis, I first summarize academic contributions as well as opinions from industry representatives on the expected consequences of the current calibration of the Solvency II standard formula. The accuracy of the calibration itself is another focal point of this work. This work contains four scientific papers. The first paper examines the presence of contagion effects between Eurozone countries in the period 2008-2012. In a market-consistent valuation approach like Solvency II contagion effects intensify the volatility of own funds and therefore of the solvency ratio of insurers. The intensity of contagion peaked in 2010 and first half of 2011 but decreased subsequently which is likely to be a consequence of bailout measures by the EU and the IMF and ECB interventions. The second and third paper address the zero risk charge for sovereign debt issued by EU member states assumed under the Solvency II standard formula. If one accepts German bond yields to be a risk-free asset, using modern cointegration techniques I showed that bonds of only one third of EU member countries can be perceived as risk-free as well. The fourth paper provides evidence for convergence in the shock-response-behavior of the stock indices of Germany, UK and France during the past decades, which in turn indicates support for the assumption of a perfect tail correlation between listed equity in the Solvency II standard formula.

Detta examensarbetes syfte var att undersöka möjligheter till förbättring av hantering av lagernivåer för Bygg Ole Saltsjö-Boo. En kombination av aspekter från både systemteknik och industriell ekonomi har använts. I rapporten applicerades Guaranteed Service-Level modellen baserad på historisk försäljning i kombination relevanta teorier om lagerkostnad. Rapporten var begränsad till att behandla utvalda produkter med hög omsättning från två utvalda leverantörer till Bygg Ole. Efterfrågan för alla produkter i rapporten utom en är icke säsongsberoende. Särskild hänsyn har dessutom tagits till servicenivå, kapitalkostnader och variation i efterfråga. Resultatet gav att en implementering av modellen skulle ge lägre lagernivåer och därmed lägre lagerkostnader. Slutsatsen från rapporten var att modellen skulle kunna implementeras, eventuellt med höga administrativa kostnader i början. Bygg Ole har också en möjlighet att använda ett ordersystem baserat på den matematiska GSL-modellen (Guaranteed Service-Level) i kombination med prognoser över efterfrågan producerade av försäljningsavdelningen på Bygg Ole. Detta skulle potentiellt kunna öka precisionen i lagerhanteringen. Den nuvarande lagerräntan är relativt lågt bestämd och därför minskas de beräknade besparingarna från implementering av modellen. Om lagerräntan skulle vara högre skulle den ekonomiska fördelen med implementeringen vara tydligare. Rekommendationen till Bygg Ole är att tillämpa den rekommenderade GSL-modellen i kombination med ett system för prognos över efterfrågan på några utvalda produkter och sedan utvärdera resultatet. / The aim of this thesis was to examine possible improvements in the inventory management and procedure of ordering at Bygg Ole Saltsjö-Boo. A combination of aspects from both Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering and Management has been used. In the report, a Guaranteed Service-Level model based on historical data of sales in combination with relevant theories about inventory carrying cost has been applied. The study was limited to specific chosen products with high sales from two selected suppliers of Bygg Ole. All these products in the study except one experienced low seasonal variety in demand. Furthermore special consideration was taken to service level, cost of capital and variability of demand. The result was that an implementation of the model would yield lower inventory levels and therefore lower carrying costs of inventory. The conclusion from the report was that the model could be implemented, although with possibly high administrative costs in the beginning. Bygg Ole also has a possibility of using an ordering system based on the mathematical GSL-model (Guaranteed Service-Level) in combination with forecasts of demand conducted by the sales department of Bygg Ole. This could potentially increase precision in the inventory management. The current inventory carrying charge is compounded relatively low and therefore decreases the calculated savings from implementing the model. If the carrying charge would be higher, the benefits of implementation would be more evident. The recommendation for Bygg Ole is to apply the recommended GSL-model in combination with a demand forecast planning system on a few selected products and then evaluate the result.

The financial stability of the insurers is important to fulfil its role as a risk transfer mechanism and to protect the purchasers of their products. The European Union is introducing the Solvency II to modernise the current Solvency I regime and to harmonise the different insurance legislation of the members of the European Union. Solvency II introduces an architecture consisting of three pillars, with Pillar I setting the solvency capital requirements, Pillar II the governance and risk management requirements and Pillar III the reporting requirements. The South African Regulator initiated Solvency Assessment and Management for implementation in 2016 to align the South African prudential regulatory framework to meet the Solvency II requirements for third country equivalence. The problem that this study addressed is the possible effect that the introduction of Solvency Assessment and Management may have on the sustainability of short-term insurers in South Africa. The results of a empirical component of the study indicated that small and medium short-term insurers may be negatively impacted due to the costs incurred to implement and comply with the requirements of the new regulatory framework. The effect on the South African short-term industry can be that cover is concentrated among a few large short-term insurers. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)