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Abstract This thesis presents innovative applications of Multi-Objective Decision Support Systems (MODSS) to forestry decision support. New MODSS methodologies were developed to assess and evaluate forestry practices and finance regimes. The assessment of forestry investments draw on case studies conducted in the Hodgson Creek catchment on the Darling Downs in south Queensland and on the Atherton Tablelands in north Queensland, Australia. MODSS are systems that aid decision-making, in which a set of alternative management options are evaluated against a set of decision criteria. The criteria, that represent the stakeholders’ goals and objectives, are weighted to reflect stakeholder preferences regarding their relative importance. The weighted criteria scores are then aggregated to create an overall measure of option performance. In the first case study, MODSS procedures identified from the literature as being most suitable to forestry and the MODSS software package DEFINITE was used. After a critical review of the first study, a new MODSS was developed to address the particular needs of forestry evaluations and the weaknesses of current MODSS for addressing these needs. Limitations of the Hodgson Creek MODSS included lack of stakeholder engagement in the MODSS development process, inefficient use of the stakeholder time and an excessive work load on the experts in the scoring process. The new MODSS development process included the combined use of weighted sum and Electré aggregation methods, these being compensatory and non-compensatory aggregation methods. This combination of aggregation methods provided a measure of overall option performance and identified the presence of fatal flaws in the options. Various criteria weighting methods were trialled – including rank order methods, the analytical hierarchy process and direct assessments – to assess their utility for defining weights that reflected stakeholder priorities. A new hybrid weighting technique was developed using a combination of rank order methods and direct assessments. A new and innovative process for scoring options and criteria was developed, using an adaption of the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) in conjunction with a new computer-based Group Decision Support System (GDSS). This iterative process involved repeated rounds of individual scoring and group discussions. In the workshop conducted to elicit scores from experts, the GDSS was used to identify criteria where the elicited scores differed and discussions were focused on these criteria. After the discussions the options were rescored against the criteria and discussed further. This analysis was innovative in that uncertainty around the individual option scores was addressed for the first time using MODSS. This new application was developed in a spreadsheet using the risk analysis package @RISK. Evaluations of forestry options were undertaken at various time scales to address the long delay between incurring costs of tree planting and receiving returns from harvest. The various time scales identify the periods in which environmental and social benefits occurred as the trees grow and the economic benefits occurred at clearfell (or selective) harvest. This thesis specifically focuses on situations where measured and modelled data is not available, and seeks to increase the scientific rigour of the use of expert and stakeholder opinion in MODSS. The MODSS analyses revealed that forestry in the case study areas had the potential to offer considerable economic, environmental and social benefits to both landholders and the wider community. However, these benefits (and the associated costs) were not viewed as equally important. The MODSS developed in this study addressed these concerns. The benefits and costs of an option were reflected in its performance against the criteria. The degree of importance of the individual criteria varied from minor to high and overriding all other considerations. Criteria against which an option performed highly (the option’s strengths) were identified, as were criteria against which an option performed poorly (the option’s weaknesses). When these weaknesses occurred in highly important criteria, these were identified as fatal flaws in the option. The first case study in the Hodgson Creek catchment considered eight forestry options against 17 economic criteria, 12 environmental criteria and 12 social criteria. The second case study on the Atherton Tablelands considered 16 forestry options against eight economic criteria, six environmental criteria and five social criteria. The MODSS analysis identified the most preferred forestry options and the strengths and weaknesses of the options. In both case studies the most preferred options were large or medium-sized plantations with monoculture plantings with an element of non-landholder funding, in the form of government funding, joint ventures or land leasing agreements. These options had the highest performance against the economic criteria at all time scales and satisfactory environmental and social performance. Other forestry options that performed well included plantings focused on under-utilised land areas and salinity prevention areas, agroforestry, and selective harvesting of private native forest. These options generally had a higher level of performance against the social and environmental criteria, but lower levels of performance against economic criteria. These plantings would be undertaken for environmental and social reasons and not for financial returns. The application of MODSS developed in this thesis presents a significant scientific contribution to MODSS methodology. This thesis includes: the use of multiple time-periods to address the temporal differences in the delivery of benefits and costs, the use of NGT and a GDSS to provide a process for rapidly eliciting expert opinion, and the use of the combination of Electré and weighted sum aggregation methods to provide an overall measure of option performance and to identify fatal flaws in the options.

Abstract This thesis presents innovative applications of Multi-Objective Decision Support Systems (MODSS) to forestry decision support. New MODSS methodologies were developed to assess and evaluate forestry practices and finance regimes. The assessment of forestry investments draw on case studies conducted in the Hodgson Creek catchment on the Darling Downs in south Queensland and on the Atherton Tablelands in north Queensland, Australia. MODSS are systems that aid decision-making, in which a set of alternative management options are evaluated against a set of decision criteria. The criteria, that represent the stakeholders’ goals and objectives, are weighted to reflect stakeholder preferences regarding their relative importance. The weighted criteria scores are then aggregated to create an overall measure of option performance. In the first case study, MODSS procedures identified from the literature as being most suitable to forestry and the MODSS software package DEFINITE was used. After a critical review of the first study, a new MODSS was developed to address the particular needs of forestry evaluations and the weaknesses of current MODSS for addressing these needs. Limitations of the Hodgson Creek MODSS included lack of stakeholder engagement in the MODSS development process, inefficient use of the stakeholder time and an excessive work load on the experts in the scoring process. The new MODSS development process included the combined use of weighted sum and Electré aggregation methods, these being compensatory and non-compensatory aggregation methods. This combination of aggregation methods provided a measure of overall option performance and identified the presence of fatal flaws in the options. Various criteria weighting methods were trialled – including rank order methods, the analytical hierarchy process and direct assessments – to assess their utility for defining weights that reflected stakeholder priorities. A new hybrid weighting technique was developed using a combination of rank order methods and direct assessments. A new and innovative process for scoring options and criteria was developed, using an adaption of the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) in conjunction with a new computer-based Group Decision Support System (GDSS). This iterative process involved repeated rounds of individual scoring and group discussions. In the workshop conducted to elicit scores from experts, the GDSS was used to identify criteria where the elicited scores differed and discussions were focused on these criteria. After the discussions the options were rescored against the criteria and discussed further. This analysis was innovative in that uncertainty around the individual option scores was addressed for the first time using MODSS. This new application was developed in a spreadsheet using the risk analysis package @RISK. Evaluations of forestry options were undertaken at various time scales to address the long delay between incurring costs of tree planting and receiving returns from harvest. The various time scales identify the periods in which environmental and social benefits occurred as the trees grow and the economic benefits occurred at clearfell (or selective) harvest. This thesis specifically focuses on situations where measured and modelled data is not available, and seeks to increase the scientific rigour of the use of expert and stakeholder opinion in MODSS. The MODSS analyses revealed that forestry in the case study areas had the potential to offer considerable economic, environmental and social benefits to both landholders and the wider community. However, these benefits (and the associated costs) were not viewed as equally important. The MODSS developed in this study addressed these concerns. The benefits and costs of an option were reflected in its performance against the criteria. The degree of importance of the individual criteria varied from minor to high and overriding all other considerations. Criteria against which an option performed highly (the option’s strengths) were identified, as were criteria against which an option performed poorly (the option’s weaknesses). When these weaknesses occurred in highly important criteria, these were identified as fatal flaws in the option. The first case study in the Hodgson Creek catchment considered eight forestry options against 17 economic criteria, 12 environmental criteria and 12 social criteria. The second case study on the Atherton Tablelands considered 16 forestry options against eight economic criteria, six environmental criteria and five social criteria. The MODSS analysis identified the most preferred forestry options and the strengths and weaknesses of the options. In both case studies the most preferred options were large or medium-sized plantations with monoculture plantings with an element of non-landholder funding, in the form of government funding, joint ventures or land leasing agreements. These options had the highest performance against the economic criteria at all time scales and satisfactory environmental and social performance. Other forestry options that performed well included plantings focused on under-utilised land areas and salinity prevention areas, agroforestry, and selective harvesting of private native forest. These options generally had a higher level of performance against the social and environmental criteria, but lower levels of performance against economic criteria. These plantings would be undertaken for environmental and social reasons and not for financial returns. The application of MODSS developed in this thesis presents a significant scientific contribution to MODSS methodology. This thesis includes: the use of multiple time-periods to address the temporal differences in the delivery of benefits and costs, the use of NGT and a GDSS to provide a process for rapidly eliciting expert opinion, and the use of the combination of Electré and weighted sum aggregation methods to provide an overall measure of option performance and to identify fatal flaws in the options.

The research question that forms the body of this thesis is: ‘What methods, skills and processes does the participatory development practitioner require for effective practice?’The intention behind this research topic has been to identify how to create socially relevant spaces within todays contemporary conditions of society. This is a reflection of an understanding of myself as someone within the ‘idealist’ stream of endeavour as defined by Charles Jencks in ‘Modern Movements in Architecture.’As I have a design background, I chose a design methodology to undertake the study. The methodology is documented by Donald Schön in the book ‘The Reflective Practitioner’ and is, in a general sense, also the methodology David Kolb documented in ‘Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development’. An element of this learning approach is for a designer to create a useful artefact that can be considered and evaluated, thus the thesis also comprises the DVD: ‘Outside the Gates, Development Processes for the Real World’.In writing the thesis I became aware that this learning process has been, and still is, central to development itself within our culture of generative change. I first arrived at this intuitively while building the DVD, but it became more explicit during the DVD evaluation. The thesis thus commences with a description and rationale for the methodology.After describing the methodology I devote three chapters to providing the background to both the form and content of the DVD. This draws almost exclusively from personal experience, though with references to architectural history, theory and practice. This includes observations on the theme of technological development, generative change and one of the real needs for our physical and psychological well being - shelter. Thus the DVD sits at a mid point in the thesis. Following the creation of the DVD, I have in accordance with the methodology evaluated its content. To do this I used a literature review generally based on Grounded Theory practice. There are four sections in the DVD, with a chapter dedicated to each of these sections.The thesis concludes with a chapter that fits in the final part of Kolb’s learning cycle, abstract conceptualisation, that considers the meaning of the findings. Ultimately there is an epilogue that outlines the next ‘concrete output’, a recently completed project based on the learnings from the thesis. This is a community engagement training course for project managers.[To view the content of the DVD: Outside the gates go to http://www.martinbutcher.com/Site/OtG.html]

With the first commitment of the Kyoto Protocol commencing in 2008, many signatory governments have identified bio fuels as a favoured response to the problem of fulfilling their countries' pledges to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. Despite the tendency for pressure over climate change to expedite the commercialisation process, detailed evaluation of the claimed benefits, likely efficacy or environmental impact of bio fuels in New Zealand in the form of the Bio fuels Sales Obligation policy (BSO): a mandate place on the Oil Companies to supply a percentage of bio fuel. Systems thinking propound the notion of complex interrelatedness: a pivotal concept in our current understanding of the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and their relationship to climate change. It also recognizes that the multiple ways in which different stakeholders perceive a contentious question are an integral feature of any problematical situation. By applying systems concepts to qualitative research, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is therefore particularly suitable for the analysis of multiple stakeholder discourse in this situation. The present study employs SSM to examine stakeholder opinion through the construction of conceptual models in the form of rich pictures and root definitions. The researcher invited diverse stakeholders to ‘see what they were thinking’ and reflect upon the beliefs and assumptions that informed their views with respect to New Zealand bio fuels development. With reference to official documentation arising from the policy development process and through a series of interviews and a focus group, the research examines perceptions of the consultation process on bio fuels development and its contribution to informed decision-making. The study data indicates that the scope of enquiry tended to be restricted by early presuppositions regarding the consultation process and its desired outcomes, which consequently shifted the focus of consultation the enquiry from an assessment of the desirability of bio fuels to an appraisal of the feasibility of government policy. However inadvertently, communication was distorted. The research examines the basic assumptions that shaped the discourse and enabled already established opinions to prevail. Furthermore, the thesis explores how using SSM to surface tacit assumptions and challenge proposed models of intervention can help improve the reflexivity of discourse and decision-making. By ensuring open communication remains at the centre of discourse, SSM could provide a means of establishing productive conditions for learning and co-creative dialogue. Consequently the study has important implications for how the ‘health’ of public discourse in New Zealand might be sustained when addressing other similarly complex issues.

The research question that forms the body of this thesis is: ‘What methods, skills and processes does the participatory development practitioner require for effective practice?’The intention behind this research topic has been to identify how to create socially relevant spaces within todays contemporary conditions of society. This is a reflection of an understanding of myself as someone within the ‘idealist’ stream of endeavour as defined by Charles Jencks in ‘Modern Movements in Architecture.’As I have a design background, I chose a design methodology to undertake the study. The methodology is documented by Donald Schön in the book ‘The Reflective Practitioner’ and is, in a general sense, also the methodology David Kolb documented in ‘Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development’. An element of this learning approach is for a designer to create a useful artefact that can be considered and evaluated, thus the thesis also comprises the DVD: ‘Outside the Gates, Development Processes for the Real World’.In writing the thesis I became aware that this learning process has been, and still is, central to development itself within our culture of generative change. I first arrived at this intuitively while building the DVD, but it became more explicit during the DVD evaluation. The thesis thus commences with a description and rationale for the methodology.After describing the methodology I devote three chapters to providing the background to both the form and content of the DVD. This draws almost exclusively from personal experience, though with references to architectural history, theory and practice. This includes observations on the theme of technological development, generative change and one of the real needs for our physical and psychological well being - shelter. Thus the DVD sits at a mid point in the thesis. Following the creation of the DVD, I have in accordance with the methodology evaluated its content. To do this I used a literature review generally based on Grounded Theory practice. There are four sections in the DVD, with a chapter dedicated to each of these sections.The thesis concludes with a chapter that fits in the final part of Kolb’s learning cycle, abstract conceptualisation, that considers the meaning of the findings. Ultimately there is an epilogue that outlines the next ‘concrete output’, a recently completed project based on the learnings from the thesis. This is a community engagement training course for project managers.[To view the content of the DVD: Outside the gates go to http://www.martinbutcher.com/Site/OtG.html]