Accidents involving passenger trains happen regularly in India. The reasons for such accidents could be many; such as weather and flooding, faulty tracks, bridge collapse, collisions caused by signaling errors, mechanical failures, driver error, sabotage etc. The annual accident-related deaths as a percentage of the total number of passengers carried by Indian Railway may seem to be negligible, but the aim should be to achieve zero fatality as every single person killed is an irreplaceable loss to his/her family. It needs to be mentioned that in addition to fatalities for which exact numbers are not available, serious injuries and permanent disabilities caused by train accidents in India at present stand completely unaccounted for. In the absence of a large scale renovation and crash avoidance measures coupled with the propensity to increase the number of trains every year, enhancing passive safety is crucial i.e. crashworthiness and occupant safety of passenger coaches of Indian trains. In the current work, crashworthiness and occupant safety of the existing typical three-tier cabin passenger coach of Indian Railway in an event of collision accident are assessed with the aid of a finite element analysis. In the light of the published work on research in railroad equipment crashworthiness, the current work is intended to envisage the methodology to assess the Indian Railway passenger coach from the point of view of the crashworthiness and occupant safety using CAE (Computer aided engineering) based approach. It is involved with an extensive study of the structural crush behavior of an individual passenger coach car and its effect on the interaction between occupants and the coach interior. Here the structural crush behavior of a typical three-tier cabin passenger coach is evaluated for the head-on impact against a fixed and rigid barrier. The occupant response for the same scenario is also studied which can be viewed as a component of the actual occupant response due to the structural crush behavior of the passenger coach. This can give useful estimates of injury severity and fatalities that may occur in actual accidents. An FE model of the passenger coach structure was built and validated using International Railway Union (UIC) specified code OR 567-design requirements in terms of static loads constituting structural proof cases. These proof cases specify the static load values the coach body structure should withstand without any permanent deformation or failure when applied at the specified locations on the structural ends across the longitudinal axis. In addition, a favorable correlation between the simulation and actual experiment for drop impact behavior of the open section specimens, namely C-section and I-section, was obtained to validate the simulation methodology. LS-DYNA a nonlinear dynamic explicit FE solver was used to carry out all the dynamic impact simulations involved in the current work. The material modeling takes into account the strain rate effect which is essential for the material impact behavior study. The contact modeling was done using penalty contact method. The degrading effect of the buffer on the structural crush patterns which induced the undesirable global bending and jackknifing of the whole coach structure was demonstrated with the help of dynamic impact simulations of the coach structure. The quantification of occupant injury was done by occupant safety simulations using the Hybrid III 50th percentile male dummy FE model. The dummy having been designed for simulating automobile accident scenarios, its contacts had to be adapted to suit the excessive mobility conditions in the coach interior. The dummy was revalidated successfully for the head drop test, pendulum chest impact test, neck flexion and extension test and knee impact test. Impact simulations for three different speeds were performed by positioning the dummy close to the impact point. Injury criteria such as Head Injury Criterion, Chest Deceleration, Knee force level and Neck extension-flexion moments were used to estimate the injury severity level and fatality rate.

<p>Snežne lavine izazvane zemljotresima su fenomen koji se jo&scaron; uvek istražuje, iako je prisutan u skoro svim planinskim regionima &scaron;irom sveta. U okviru ove doktorske disertacije razvijena je i unapređena metoda procene bezbednosti i zdravlja na radu za slučaj snežnih lavina izazvanih zemljotresom. Osnovni cilj unapređene metode je smanjenje rizika na najmanji mogući nivo, odnosno prihvatanje najmanjeg mogućeg rezidualnog rizika, čije dalje smanjenje ili uklanjanje ne bi bilo isplativo. Unapređena metoda uzima u obzir niz faktora (duboku geologiju, sastav stena, visinu snežnog pokrivača, rasprostranjenost kritičnih nagiba, itd.) koji mogu da utiču na pojavu snežnih lavina uzrokovanih zemljotresom. Za verifikaciju metode uzet je skija&scaron;ki centar Kopaonik, koji nije dovoljno istražen, iako je jedan od najvećih centara u jugoistočnom delu Evrope.</p> / <p>Snow avalanches caused by earthquakes are a subject of many researches, even<br />though this phenomenon is present in mountain regions around the world. In this<br />doctoral dissertation, an improved method of assessing occupational health and safety<br />in cases of earthquake-induced snow avalanches has also been developed. The main<br />goal of the improved method is to reduce the risk to the smallest possible level, i.e. to<br />accept the least possible residual risk, the further reduction or removal of which would<br />not be profitable. This method takes into account a number of factors (deep geology,<br />rock composition, snow cover height, critical inclination distribution, etc.) that can affect<br />the occurrence of the earthquake-induced snow avalanches. For the verification of the<br />method, the ski center Kopaonik was analyzed, which has not been sufficiently<br />explored, although it is one of the largest ski centers in south-eastern part of Europe.</p>

Intrinsically safe (IS) active power supplies subjected to certain transient load conditions can deliver power to a circuit at significantly higher levels than indicated on their nameplate ratings. During a transient load such as an intermittent short-circuit, energy is transferred from the power supply to the short-circuit and an electrical arc may form when the short-circuit is applied or removed. This poses a spark ignition risk as energy is transferred from the arc to the surrounding atmosphere. Currently various International and Australian Standards define the performance requirements for IS electrical apparatus. A duly accredited laboratory is required to establish the intrinsic safety compliance of an apparatus with the Standards. It involves an assessment of the apparatus and may include testing. The assessment of the apparatus determines adequate segregation, separation, construction, and selection of components. The tests performed on the apparatus include a temperature rise test and in some cases, the sparking potential of the circuit is tested using the spark test apparatus (STA). Testing the sparking potential of active power supplies to establish compliance adds significantly to the time and costs involved in establishing compliance. A new alternative assessment method is proposed in this report to augment or replace the testing phase of the compliance certification process for active power supplies. The proposed alternative assessment method (PAAM) is derived from a determination of the steady-state and transient output characteristics of the active power supply under consideration. Parameters such as peak output current, time constant of peak current decay, and the output voltages at these times are measured from the circuit's output characteristics. These measurements can subsequently be used to derive the topology and component values of an equivalent circuit. The resulting equivalent circuit is then considered like a linear power supply and the sparking potential can be determined using existing assessment methods. This thesis investigates in detail the equivalent circuit of a number of direct current (DC) active power supplies whose transient output characteristics exhibit predominantly capacitive behaviour. The results of the PAAM using the equivalent circuit are then compared with results achieved using the current testing procedure with a STA. A small sample of active power supplies is used to generate data from which a relationship between the current testing procedure and the PAAM can be established. The PAAM developed in this research project can be used as a pre-compliance check by designers, manufacturers, or IS testing stations. A failure of this test would indicate that the active power supply's sparking energy is not low enough to be regarded as intrinsically safe. The PAAM requires fewer resources to establish a result than the STA. The benefits of a simplified spark ignition test would flow on from designers and manufacturers to end users.

Cyclists as vulnerable road users are oftentimes unprotected with exposed human body, can fall easily and sustain serious injuries when encountered collisions, especially with motorists. At roundabouts, accident reduction rate for cyclists is rather uncertain or sometimes less favorable compared to other road users (e.g. motorists, pedestrians). This thesis focuses on advancing the understanding of traffic safety issues for cyclists at roundabouts by identifying concerns faced by cyclists and evaluating their designs to find out which configuration has high or higher safety level towards cyclists. The research approach adopted in this work includes a wide review of relevant literature on cyclist safety and roundabouts and the implementation of empirical research, the latter was carried out through a Case Study in Norrköping city by obtaining cyclist related accident data from Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition database to identify roundabouts with high cyclist-related accidents in the city assisted with PTV Visum Safety tool and fetching traffic volume from city network model operated by Norrköping Municipality for each identified roundabout. The main findings from this research conclude that single-lane roundabouts with separated cycle paths in high traffic volume setting provide better or higher safety performance for cyclists compared to other roundabout configurations.

Submitted by MARCO ANTONIO FERRAZ NOGUEIRA FILHO null (nogueira-m@hotmail.com) on 2016-11-01T15:50:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese DefesaMarcoNogueira - corrigida.pdf: 3044815 bytes, checksum: e95dd666dddaa99edc99b3d3dcebfdd3 (MD5) / Rejected by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br), reason: Solicitamos que realize uma nova submissão seguindo a orientação abaixo: O arquivo submetido está sem a ficha catalográfica. A versão submetida por você é considerada a versão final da dissertação/tese, portanto não poderá ocorrer qualquer alteração em seu conteúdo após a aprovação. Corrija esta informação e realize uma nova submissão com o arquivo correto. Agradecemos a compreensão. on 2016-11-09T18:12:07Z (GMT) / Submitted by MARCO ANTONIO FERRAZ NOGUEIRA FILHO null (nogueira-m@hotmail.com) on 2016-12-05T23:16:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese DefesaMarcoNogueira - corrigida.pdf: 3227414 bytes, checksum: c8b33c8e0afd334460f9a1b891015338 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Felipe Augusto Arakaki (arakaki@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-12-06T15:21:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 nogueirafilho_maf_dr_arafcf.pdf: 3227414 bytes, checksum: c8b33c8e0afd334460f9a1b891015338 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-06T15:21:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 nogueirafilho_maf_dr_arafcf.pdf: 3227414 bytes, checksum: c8b33c8e0afd334460f9a1b891015338 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Depois de quase 50 anos de uso na terapia, a alta potência e amplo espectro de ação asseguram que a anfotericina B (AmB) continue a ser o fármaco de escolha na terapia moderna contra infecções fúngicas invasivas. A AmB está associada a alta incidência de nefrotoxicidade e reações relacionadas à infusão, o que limita a sua utilização e muitas vezes requerem a redução da dose. Novas formulações estão sendo pesquisadas para melhorar as características farmacocinéticas da AmB, levando a novas alternativas de administração, hoje limitada à via intravenosa. No presente estudo, foi avaliado o perfil farmacocinético de um novo sistema microemulsionado de anfotericina B (MEAmB) desenhada por Franzini (2011) por via intravenosa e oral em ratos wistar (n=10), dose de 1mg / kg e 10mg / kg pelas vias intravenosa e oral respectivamente, além da avaliação preliminar de segurança. A formulação apresentou um perfil farmacocinético semelhante à AmB desoxicolato em sua administração intravenosa, sem diferenças significativas tanto nos parâmetros farmacocinéticos quanto na comparação “ponto a ponto”. A MEAmB trouxe ainda diminuição no potencial de nefrotoxicidade, mantendo os níveis de ureia e creatinina inalterados comparando-se pré e pós-exposição enquanto a AmB desoxicolato promoveu aumento significativo dos biomarcadores renais. A MEAmB apresentou uma baixa biodisponibilidade oral (apenas 5,8%) não permitindo os estudos de eficácia planejados para essa formulação. Ainda, através da aplicação da farmacometria, um modelo de farmacocinética populacional foi desenhado e validado para o melhor entendimento entre as covariáveis fisiológicas e ocasionais e a busca de possíveis fatores que impactam a farmacocinética da AmB / After nearly 50 years of use in therapy, high power and broad spectrum of action ensure that amphotericin B (AmB) remains the drug of choice in modern therapy against invasive fungal infections. The AmB is associated with high incidence of nephrotoxicity and infusion-related reactions, which limit their use and often require dose reduction. New formulations are being researched to improve the pharmacokinetic characteristics of AmB, that may lead to new alternative administration routes, limited today only to intravenous administration. In the present study, the pharmacokinetic profile of a new microemulsion system of amphotericin B (MEAmB) formulated by Franzini (2011) for intravenous and oral administration was investigated in wistar rats (n = 10), dose of 1mg / kg and 10mg / kg for intravenous and oral routes respectively, and also a preliminary assessment of safety oral administration. The formulation showed a pharmacokinetic profile similar to AmB deoxycholate in its intravenous administration, no significant differences were found in the pharmacokinetic parameters between the AmB deoxycholate and MEAmB. The MEAmB granted a statistical decrease in the nephrotoxicity potential, keeping urea and creatinine levels unchanged comparing pre- and post-exposure while AmB deoxycholate caused a significant increase in renal biomarkers. The MEAmB showed low oral bioavailability (only 5.8%) not allowing the efficacy studies planned for this formulation. A study of population pharmacokinetic was performed and a population pharmacokinetic model was designed and validated for the better understanding of the physiological and occasional covariates of AmB.

There is so far no consensus on how to develop a reliability model of safety-related digitalinstrumentation and control (I&amp;C) in a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a nuclear powerplant. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate different approaches to model digital protectionsystems in a PSA for a nuclear power plant. This is accomplished by the development of a fault treemodel of the digital protection system for a fictive and simplified nuclear power plant, that act as areference model to be used for evaluation of different design alternatives and modelling principles.Common cause failures and spurious actuation signals are the major contributors to scenariosresulting in a core damage. A PSA model has to be sufficiently detailed in order for this to berepresented in the results. The impact on results such as core damage frequency and importance ofminimal cut sets from different fail-safe, voting logic and signal validation designs are significant,too. To further examine the differences between I&amp;C designs and significance of different PSAmodelling solutions, the degree of realism of the example should be increased. This rapidlyintroduces complexity to the models resulting in a model that is more difficult to review and resultsthat is more difficult to interpret and even much simplified models tend to get rather complex.

A APS (Análise Probabilística de Segurança) de instalações industriais é assunto que evoluiu com a complexidade dos sistemas. A princípio, foram desenvolvidas ferramentas e técnicas com o propósito de analisar plantas já instaladas, possibilitando a identificação de fenômenos e mecanismos de falha desconhecidos até então. Com a evolução dos estudos dos acidentes, foram desenvolvidas técnicas aplicáveis às fases pré-operacionais com o propósito de diminuir os riscos na operação. Observa-se, portanto, um bom número de técnicas ideais para analisar projetos prontos ou em fase de conclusão. O mesmo não é observado para a fase de concepção. Apesar disto, cada vez mais especialistas na área de risco propõem que as considerações de segurança são mais eficazes quando ponderadas ao longo de toda a vida dos sistemas críticos. O estudo das APS realizadas no mundo em várias indústrias ajuda a entender o consenso sobre a contribuição potencial destas análises no desenvolvimento de novos sistemas. Para explorar este potencial, é essencial a elaboração de processos e modelos prospectivos que sejam simples, quantitativos, realistas, capazes de alimentar análises no estágio de projeto e que tragam resultados que possam ser interpretados pelos profissionais envolvidos no processo decisório. Estas considerações são extensíveis à ACH (Análise de Confiabilidade Humana), i.e., poucas são as ferramentas que ponderam aspectos operacionais, em especial o desempenho humano, na fase de projeto. A reconhecida contribuição do fator humano em acidentes envolvendo sistemas complexos - por vezes atribuída à falta de ferramentas adequadas para sua consideração na fase de projeto - evidencia ainda mais esta lacuna. Neste contexto, esta tese apresenta o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia e de uma técnica para a consideração precoce da confiabilidade humana na concepção de sistemas complexos, sendo que: 1) o desenvolvimento desta metodologia primou pela facilidade de entendimento de suas etapas e resultados, i.e., procurou-se a inteligibilidade para as pessoas envolvidas no projeto, sendo especialistas em ACH ou não, e; 2) a TECHR (Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability) foi concebida com o propósito de desenvolver um modelo prospectivo para o desempenho humano que possa ser explorado na fase de concepção de sistemas, e se baseia no aproveitamento da opinião de especialistas em relação a sistemas que operam ou operaram nos últimos anos para obter estimativas das probabilidades dos diversos tipos de erro humano que podem ocorrer durante a execução de uma ação específica. A metodologia proposta e a TECHR resultam em um procedimento simples e capaz de produzir modelos extremamente úteis na fase de projeto, representando uma contribuição original para o estado da arte da concepção de sistemas baseada em dados incertos. / PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is an industrial plant issue that has evolved with the complexity of systems. Initially, tools and techniques have been developed with the main purpose of analyzing operational plants, enabling the identification of phenomena and fault mechanisms hitherto not highlighted. With the evolution of accidents studies, some techniques applicable to pre-operational phases were developed in order to reduce the risks in operation. Therefore, a number of techniques adequate to analyze ready or near completion designs can be found. The same is not observed for the early design phase. Despite this, more and more experts in the risk assessment field suggest that safety considerations are most effective when assessed over the whole life of critical systems. Probabilistic safety analyses performed worldwide in various industries help us understand the consensus on the potential contribution of these analyses for developing new systems. To exploit this potential, it is essential to develop processes and prospective models that are simple, quantitative, realistic, able to feed analyses at the design stage and to bring results that can be interpreted by the professionals involved in the decision making process. These considerations are extended to HRA (Human Reliability Analysis), i.e., there are few tools that consider operational aspects, especially human performance, during the design phase. The recognized contribution of the human factor in accidents involving complex systems - sometimes attributed to the lack of suitable tools for its consideration in the design phase - further highlights this gap. In this context, this thesis presents a methodology and a technique developed for the early consideration of human reliability in complex systems design, and: 1) the development of this methodology has prioritized the easy understanding of its steps and results, i.e., its intelligibility for people involved in the system design has been sought, with expertise in HRA or not, and; 2) the technique for early consideration of human reliability (TECHR) was designed for developing a prospective human performance model that can be exploited in the system design phase, and is based on the use of expert opinion in relation to systems that operate or have operated in recent years to obtain estimates of the probabilities of the various types of human error that may occur during the performance of a specific action. The proposed methodology and technique result in a simple procedure capable of producing useful models for the design phase, representing an original contribution to the state of the art of systems conception under uncertainty.

O transporte aéreo e a indústria de sistemas de defesa foram setores pioneiros na utilização de sistemas computacionais críticos, incrementando os níveis de automação nas atividades de controle do espaço aéreo. Com o crescimento desses setores, verificado pela expansão dos números de vôos, volumes de cargas e usuários, assim como pela ampliação e diversidade das operações militares, os sistemas de controle têm assumido maior complexidade técnica, introduzindo novos recursos de automação ou facilidades adicionais de apoio para funções exercidas manualmente. Essa situação tem ampliado a dependência dos serviços prestados, relativamente à disponibilidade dos sistemas computacionais. Diretrizes de projeto e procedimentos operacionais são estabelecidos para manter os níveis de segurança nos casos de falha, no entanto a disponibilidade torna-se parâmetro crítico, na medida em que algumas falhas podem afetar a eficiência nominal da prestação dos serviços. Nesse cenário, este trabalho propõe um modelo para avaliação da disponibilidade de sistemas de controle do espaço aéreo, a partir de recursos de análises da teoria de filas. Inicialmente é citado um modelo geral para análise de disponibilidade de data centers. Em seguida, é apresentada uma extensão do modelo geral para análise da disponibilidade em sistemas de controle do espaço aéreo. Para isso, considerou-se a intervenção humana existente nessa atividade, cujas decisões de controle são exercidas por operadores qualificados (controladores), tanto nas atividades inerentes ao serviço de controle, quanto nos casos de degradação, nos quais os operadores ou técnicos de manutenção assumem alguma tarefa de reparo, decorrente da eventual indisponibilidade de funções do sistema. / Due to the growth in airspace utilization, which can be verified both in terms of the expansions in aerial movements, airports and volumes of transported passengers and cargo, as well as in terms of the expansion of military operations demands and diversity, airspace control activities have been increasing their technical complexity, introducing new features into the existent automation systems or creating additional resources for the automation of some functions previously performed by human operators. This situation has increased the dependence on the availability of the computer systems involved in the services provided by control centers. Project directives and operational procedures are established in order to maintain the safety integrity levels of the systems, in case any failure occurs. However, the availability becomes a critical parameter, once failure events can force an undesirable state of degraded operation, jeopardizing the nominal capacity of the services being performed through any controlled airspace. In this scenario, this work presents an availability model for the computer systems used in airspace control centers, based on analysis from queuing theory. A general model is first presented, referencing a case study that describes the use of queuing models to access the availability of generic data centers. Further considerations are introduced to extend this general model in order to propose its application for the specific computer systems used in airspace control centers, where operational control relies on human activities. In this case, system operation involves intensive use of human-machine interfaces (HMI), for the regular control services provided, and additional technical or operational maintenance activities, occasionally imposed to repair a momentary loss of any function of the system.

Com o crescimento do setor aeronáutico faz-se necessário a criação de novas tecnologias para que a capacidade do sistema possa aumentar sem provocar perdas nos níveis de segurança. Para isso foi criado o CNS/ATM, um paradigma que integra tecnologias de comunicação, navegação e vigilância em um sistema de gerenciamento de tráfego aéreo global. No âmbito das comunicações entre controlador e piloto, o atual sistema de fonia via rádio analógico é substituído por um enlace de dados, chamado de Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC). Esta alteração promove polêmica entre aeronautas e autoridades, de forma que é essencial um estudo aprofundado que comprove sua eficácia. Dessa forma, esta pesquisa visa avaliar a segurança do CPDLC quando utilizado em Áreas Terminais do Espaço Aéreo. Para a realização desta pesquisa, foi criada uma metodologia de avaliação de segurança utilizando simuladores de voo, de tráfego aéreo e de comunicação CPDLC combinados com uma análise por meio de modelos de Markov. O procedimento de chegada ao aeroporto de Congonhas, situado na Terminal São Paulo, foi utilizado como referência para aplicação desta metodologia. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o sistema atual de comunicação, via voz, está no limite do atendimento dos níveis internacionais de segurança para a demanda atual. Contudo, a comunicação por enlace de dados atende, e em alguns casos inclusive melhora, o nível de segurança desta região do espaço aéreo. / With the growth of the aviation industry it is necessary to create new technologies that can increase the system capacity without loss in the safety levels. Because of this the CNS/ATM was created, a paradigm that integrates communication, navigation and surveillance technologies with a global air traffic management. For the communications between controllers and pilots, the current system of voice over analog radio is being replaced by a data link, called the Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC). This replacement raises debates between airmen and authorities, demanding a detailed study that proves its effectiveness. Thus, this research aims to evaluate the CPDLC safety when used in Terminal Airspace Areas. For this research, was created a methodology for security assessment using flight, air traffic, and CPDLC simulators combined with a Markov model analysis. The Congonhas airport arrival procedure, located in São Paulo Terminal, was used as reference for this methodology application. The results showed that the current system of voice communication is on the limit of fulfilling the international safety levels for the current demand. However, the data link communication addresses, and in some cases even improve, the safety level for this airspace region.

Sistemas de transporte marítimo são essenciais para o Comércio Global, em especial, navios-tanques e seus centros de carga e descarga de produtos líquidos ou gasosos inflamáveis; portanto, é crucial entender como estes sistemas podem falhar, para que seus operadores sejam capazes de manter a sua capacidade de operação. É preciso que cada e toda análise quantitativa de risco compreenda algumas das atividades básicas que devem ser desenvolvidas, para permitir a quantificação dos riscos envolvidos e associados, na operação do sistema ou do processo. Basicamente, devem ser calculadas as probabilidades de ocorrência dos eventos indesejados identificados, bem como a magnitude de suas consequências. O objetivo deste trabalho é aferir se a técnica denominada Rede Bayesiana RB é a mais adequada, comparando-a com as técnicas de árvores de falhas e de eventos, para realizar uma Análise de Risco da operação ou processo de descarga de líquidos inflamáveis, como etanol anidro e/ou produtos petrolíferos, de um naviotanque para um terminal portuário específico Terminal de Granéis Líquidos TGL com foco na interface entre dois sistemas: o navio e o porto, observado o elemento humano, ou seja, o erro humano (Análise da Confiabilidade Humana). Além disso, será realizado um estudo das consequências do vazamento de um líquido inflamável transportado pelo navio, olhando para o pior cenário, a partir da ruptura da tubulação ou do compartimento do navio-tanque. A análise tem por base as recomendações da Organização Internacional Marítima OIM (em inglês, IMO). A OIM tem adotado a Avaliação Formal da Segurança AFS (em inglês, Formal Safety Assessment FSA), como seu modo oficial de receber as sugestões de seus membros para criar ou modificar qualquer regulamentação correlacionada. Este processo é composto de cinco passos que a OIM descreve na guia AFS (IMO, 2002). Este trabalho irá mostrar todas as etapas, mas irá focar, com especial atenção, a segunda etapa Risk Assessment, porque será aplicada ao caso sob análise, envolvendo o comportamento humano. Existem muitas técnicas e muito trabalho envolvido na estimação das probabilidades dos eventos. O mesmo ocorre para a avaliação de suas consequências. Uma vez definida a quantidade total de vazamento, um software poderá ser usado para calcular as consequências. O mesmo será feito para na Análise de Risco, utilizando RB, e, neste ponto, o trabalho apresenta uma nova contribuição. / Maritime transportation systems are essential for World Trade, in special, Tankers ships and yours loading and unloading facilities; therefore, it is crucial to understand how these systems may fail, to be able to maintain their capacity. It need that each and every quantitative risk assessment comprises some basic activities that have to be developed to allow the quantification of the risks involved in the operation of a system or process. Basically, it must be estimated the likelihood of the identified undesired events as well as the magnitude of their consequences. The objective of this study is to assess if the technique called Bayesian Networks BN is the best suited, with respect to the Fault Tree Analysis FTA and the Event Tree Analysis ETA, to perform an Risk Analysis of the operation or process of unloading of flammable bulk liquids, such as anhydrous ethanol and/or oil products, from a Tanker to a port terminal specified the Bulk Liquid Terminal BLT, focusing on the interface between the two systems: ship and port with the inclusion of the human factor, i.e., human error: Human Reliability Analysis HRA. Furthermore, a consequence analysis of a specific liquid bulk leakage will be performed, looking at the worst scenario case, from the rupture of a pipeline or tank from a Tanker. The analysis came from based on the recommendations of the International Maritime Organization IMO. The IMO has adopted the FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) as its official way of receiving suggestions of its members to create or modify any regulation correlated. It is a process composed by five steps that IMO has described in its Guidelines for FSA (IMO, 2002). This thesis will to show all steps, but will look carefully to step two (Risk Assessment) because it will be applied in the example situation, involving human behavior (HRA). There are many techniques and much work involved in the estimation of the likelihood of the events. The same occurs for the evaluation of their consequences. Once defined the total leaked quantity, software will be used to calculate the consequences. The same will be done to Risk Analysis, using BN, and at this point, the work is a new contribution.