Η περιοχή του ανατολικού τμήματος της τάφρου της Κορίνθου αποτελεί μια ταχύτατα αναπτυσσόμενη περιοχή φιλοξενώντας σημαντικότατες υποδομές. Η ανάπτυξη αυτής της περιοχής είναι απειλούμενη από την εξίσου σημαντική σεισμική δραστηριότητα που εμφανίζει και είχε ως αποτέλεσμα, σε προηγούμενους ιστορικούς χρόνους εκτεταμένες καταρρεύσεις κτηρίων, θανάτους ή και την πλήρη καταστροφή πόλεων. Σήμερα, νέες επιστημονικές μέθοδοι επικεντρώνονται στα εντυπωσιακά ρηξιγενή πρανή που τη διατρέχουν, η δράση των οποίων θεωρείται υπεύθυνη για τα ισχυρά σεισμικά επεισόδια που συμβαίνουν στην περιοχή. Η εκτίμηση των γεωμετρικών χαρακτηριστικών των ενεργών ρηγμάτων που εντοπίζονται στο θαλάσσιο και στο χερσαίο νότιο τμήμα της τάφρου οδήγησε σε μορφοκλασματικές κατανομές των δύο πληθυσμών από όπου προέκυψε ότι η κυρίαρχη διαδικασία ανάπτυξης των ρηγμάτων στον Κορινθιακό κόλπο είναι η συνένωση μικρότερων ρηγμάτων. Η διαδικασία αυτή φαίνεται να βρίσκεται σε ένα πιο πρώιμο στάδιο στον θαλάσσιο πληθυσμό, ενώ αντίθετα ο χερσαίος πληθυσμός έχει εισαχθεί σε ένα στάδιο ωριμότητας της παραμόρφωσης. Επιπλέον, διαπιστώθηκε ότι ο διαχωρισμός σε μήκη ρηγμάτων μικρότερα και μεγαλύτερα από 5km αναπαριστά ένα ανώτερο όριο στο οποίο πραγματοποιείται η αλλαγή στον τρόπο ανάπτυξης των ρηγμάτων αλλά μπορεί να συσχετιστεί και με την υποκείμενη μηχανική στρωμάτωση. Από αυτές τις κατανομές επιλέχθηκε μια ομάδα δεκατεσσάρων ρηγμάτων που αποτελούν σαφώς προσδιορισμένες σεισμικές πηγές και κυριαρχούν σε περιοχές με υψηλή σεισμικότητα. Ιδιαίτερα μελετήθηκε το ρήγμα των Κεγχρεών το οποίο είναι παρακείμενο σημαντικών υποδομών και στο οποίο πραγματοποιήθηκε γεωμορφολογική ανάλυση που απέδειξε ότι όλο το ρήγμα είναι ενεργό, αλλά και παλαιοσεισμολογική εκσκαφή στην οποία αναγνωρίστηκαν τρία τουλάχιστον σεισμικά γεγονότα μεγέθους 6.3 με κυμαινόμενη περίοδο επανάληψης. Τέλος, για αυτή την ομάδα ρηγμάτων κατασκευάστηκαν δενδροδιαγράμματα εκτίμησης της σεισμικής επικινδυνότητας από τα οποία υπολογίστηκε η ένταση Arias με τη χρήση διαφορετικής βαρύτητας εμπειρικών σχέσεων. Συνεκτιμώντας τη γωνία κλίσης του πρανούς, την επικρατούσα λιθολογία στην επικεντρική περιοχή καθώς και τα όρια της έντασης Arias εντοπίστηκαν θέσεις που εμφανίζονται επιδεκτικές σε διάφορους τύπους δευτερογενών φαινομένων, όπως ρευστοποιήσεις, ολισθήσεις και πτώσεις βράχων. Οι παράκτιες περιοχές των πόλεων του Κιάτου της Κορίνθου, του Λουτρακίου και οι βόρειες ακτές της χερσονήσου της Περαχώρας φαίνεται να επηρεάζονται σε σημαντικότερο βαθμό από την ενεργοποίηση τέτοιων φαινομένων. / The area of the eastern part of the Gulf of Corinth constitutes a rapid developing region hosting significant infrastructures. The significant seismic activity put a threat on this development as it has been noticed during historical time, triggering extensive collapses, human casualties and total disaster of cities. Today new scientific methods are implemented on the spectacular fault arrays that dissect the graben and whose activity is related to the important seismic events, occurred in the area. The scaling properties estimation of the active faults along the Gulf, both onshore and offshore, defines the fractal distributions of both populations. These fractal distributions show that the main fault growth process is the linkage and interaction between smaller fault segments. The offshore population is characterized by an earlier stage of this process, whereas the onshore population indicates a more mature stage of deformation. Additionally, the subdivision of fault length above and beyond 5km represents a maximum bound, where the change in the growth process takes place, but it can also be associated with the underlying crustal mechanical layering. These fractal distributions determine a selection of a group of fourteen active faults that represent unambiguous seismic sources located on highly seismic areas. From this group, the Kencreai fault was especially studied due to its proximity to essential infrastructure. The geomorphology and palaeoseimological analysis of this fault reveal that the fault is active all along its trace, hosting at least three major seismic events with maximum magnitude 6.3 and fluctuant recurrence interval. Finally, for this fault group, seismic hazard assessment logic trees are produced, that calculate the Arias intensity considering the uncertainty of different attenuation relationships. By evaluating the slope gradient, the lithology conditions in the epicentral area and the upper bounds of the Arias intensity, areas highly susceptible to future site effects such as liquefactions, landslides and rock falls are located. The coastal areas of the Kiato, Corinthos and Loutraki cities and the north coast of the Perachora peninsula as well seem more influenced by site effects induced by major earthquakes.

This thesis addresses two fundamental topics in Engineering Seismology; the application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, and the estimation of measures of Strong Ground Motion. These two topics, while being related, are presented as separate sections. In the first section, state-of-the-art PSHA methodologies are applied to various sites in the Buller Region, South Island, New Zealand. These sites are deemed critical to the maintenance of economic stability in the region. A fault-source based seismicity model is developed for the region that is consistent with the governing tectonic loading, and seismic moment release of the region. In attempting to ensure this consistency the apparent anomaly between the rates of activity dictated by deformation throughout the Quaternary, and rates of activity dictated by observed seismicity is addressed. Individual fault source activity is determined following the application of a Bayesian Inference procedure in which observed earthquake events are attributed to causative faults in the study region. The activity of fault sources, in general, is assumed to be governed by bounded power law behaviour. An exception is made for the Alpine Fault which is modelled as a purely characteristic source. The calculation of rates of exceedance of various ground motion indices is made using a combination of Poissonian and time-dependent earthquake occurrence models. The various ground motion indices for which rates of exceedance are determined include peak ground acceleration, ordinates of 5% damped Spectral Acceleration, and Arias Intensity. The total hazard determined for each of these ground motion measures is decomposed using a four dimensional disaggregation procedure. From this disaggregation procedure, design earthquake scenarios are specified for the sites that are considered. The second part of the thesis is concerned with the estimation of ground motion measures that are more informative than the existing scalar measures that are available for use in New Zealand. Models are developed for the prediction of Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS) as well as Arias Intensity for use in the New Zealand environment. The FAS model can be used to generate ground motion time histories for use in structural and geotechnical analyses. Arias Intensity has been shown to be an important strong motion measure due to its positive correlation with damage in short period structures as well as its utility in predicting the onset of liquefaction and landslides. The models are based upon the analysis of a dataset of New Zealand Strong Motion records as well as supplementary near field records from major overseas events. While the two measures of ground motion intensity are strongly related, different methods have been adopted in order to develop the models. As part of the methodology used for the FAS model, Monte Carlo simulation coupled with a simple ray tracing procedure is employed to estimate source spectra from various New Zealand earthquakes and, consequently, a magnitude - corner-frequency relationship is obtained. In general, the parameters of the predictive equations are determined using the most state-of-the-art mixed effects regression procedures.

Le risque sismique est un sujet d’étude pluridisciplinaire qui fait l’objet de nombreux travaux de recherches. Pendant longtemps, il a été étudié sous l’aspect de l’aléa et ce n’est qu’au milieu du XXe siècle que nous nous sommes intéressés à la vulnérabilité des éléments exposés. Malgré la multiplicité des études sur le risque sismique, aucune d’entre elles n’adopte une démarche globale en utilisant la règlementation parasismique. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous soutenons l’hypothèse selon laquelle il est possible d’évaluer la vulnérabilité des lieux d’habitation à l’échelle de plusieurs bâtiments en utilisant la norme Européenne, l’Eurocode 8. Utiliser cette règlementation a l’avantage de réduire les temps d’étudede la vulnérabilité physique puisque l’on évalue la résistance sismique d’un unique bâtiment dont ce dernier représente une population de plusieurs immeubles à usage d’habitation collective. La méthodologie proposée, illustrée sur l’exemple de la conurbation Mulhouse-Bâle, se compose de deux phases. La première consiste à étudier l’aléa sismique de la zone urbaine de Mulhouse et de Bâle à travers les études bibliographiques de quelques auteurs. Cette phase consiste aussi à examiner la compatibilité de la règlementation parasismique européenne et helvétique. En dernier lieu, un diagnostic du bâti existant et de la population est réalisé pour évaluer la vulnérabilité de ces deux territoires urbains, après un découpage des deux villes en secteurs historico géographiques. Une seconde phase consiste à proposer un modèle simplifié d’évaluation déterministe et probabiliste de la vulnérabilité du bâti, Celui-ci est fondé à partir de la nouvelle règlementation Européenne et de la mécanique des structures, pour évaluer la résistance sismique des bâtiments. L’aspect probabiliste a permis d’affiner le modèle proposé afin d’intégrer certaines incertitudes. Une étude de cas simulant un séisme important de magnitude Mw égale à 6 sur l’échelle de Richter, intégrant les phénomènes d’effets de site comme le préconise l’Eurocode 8, a permis de valider l’application du modèle envisagé. Le modèle d’évaluation proposé a pour intérêt de fournir un outil permettant d’évaluer la vulnérabilité du bâti sans effectuer de calcul mécanique. Il se veut donc accessible à tous(géographes, ingénieurs, sismologues, etc.…). Plus généralement, ce modèle pour objectif de fournir un outil d’aide à la décision dans la démarche de prévention que doivent les autorités publiques à la population, puisqu’ils permettent de déterminer la plus ou moins grande vulnérabilité des zones étudiées. / The seismic risk is a subject of multidisciplinary study which is the object of numerous research works. For a long time, it was studied in terms of hazard and it is only in the middle of the 20th century that we became interested in the vulnerability of the exposed elements. In spite of the multiplicity of the studies on the seismic risk, none of them adopts a global approach by using the earthquake-resistant regulations. Within the framework of thesis, we support the hypothesis that it possible to estimate the vulnerability of dwellings on the scale of several buildings by using the European standard, Eurocode 8. Using these regulations has the advantage reducing the time to study physical vulnerability by assessing the seismic resistance of a single building, where the latter represents a population of several buildings used as collective dwellings. The proposed methodology, illustrated on the example of the Mulhouse-Basel conurbation, consists of two phases. The first one consists in studying the seismic hazard of the urban area of Mulhouse and Basel through the bibliographical studies of some authors. This phase also consists in examining the compatibility of the European and Helvetian seismic regulations. Finally, a diagnosis of the existing structures and of the population is made to assess the vulnerability of these two urban territories, after a division of both cities into historic-geographical sectors. A second phase consists in proposing a simplified model of deterministic and probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of the built, based on the new European regulation and the mechanics of the structures, to evaluate the seismic resistance of buildings. The probability aspect allowed to refine the proposed model to integrate certain uncertainties. A case study feigning an important earthquake of magnitude Mw equal to 6 on the Richter scale, integrating the phenomena of site effects as recommended by Eurocode 8, validated the application of the envisaged model. The proposed evaluation model is intended to provide a tool for assessing the vulnerability of the built without performing mechanical calculations. Thus, it aims to be accessible to all (geographers, engineers, seismologists, etc…). More generally, this model aims to provide a decision-making tool in the approach of prevention which the public authorities owe to the population, because they allow to determine the more or less big vulnerability of the studied areas.

Cette étude présente tout d'abord la récente banque de données fort mouvement pan-européen qui est mis à jour et la version étendue de bases de données paneuropéennes précédentes. Les métadonnées relatives est soigneusement compilé et réévalué. La base de données est conforme aux normes élevées pour être des ressources de la communauté paneuropéenne de génie parasismique. Ensuite, une étude empirique non linéaire place amplification modèle, fonction de la moyenne en fonction du temps de la plus haute 30m profil de vitesse des ondes de cisaillement et l'accélération maximale du sol sur le roc, est développé. L'objectif principal de tirer un tel modèle est de l'utiliser dans les équations de prédiction des mouvements du sol (GMPEs). Par ailleurs, l'évaluation des facteurs de site dans les codes de conception parasismique montre qu'il est également applicable dans les facteurs de sites informatiques. À cette fin, une autre méthodologie qui prend en compte les résultats de l'analyse de l'aléa sismique probabiliste et déterministe modèles de site est proposé. Cette étude génère GMPEs de réponse élastique ordonnées spectrales horizontale et verticale d'amortissement de 5%. Plutôt que d'équations directs pour le mouvement vertical, afin d'obtenir spectre du danger horizontale et verticale cohérente, compatible GMPE de rapport vertical à horizontal est préférable. Modèles de mise à l'échelle d'amortissement supplémentaires pour modifier les spectres horizontaux et verticaux d'autres ratios d'amortissement sont proposées. / This study firstly presents the recent pan-European strong-motion databank that is updated and extended version of previous pan-European databases. The pertaining metadata is carefully compiled and reappraised. The database meets high standards for being resource of pan-European earthquake engineering community. Then, an empirical nonlinear site amplification model, function of time-based average of uppermost 30m shear wave velocity profile and peak ground acceleration on rock, is developed. The primary aim of deriving such a model is to use it in ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Besides, the evaluation of site factors in the seismic design codes shows that it is also applicable in computing site factors. To this end, an alternative methodology that considers the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and deterministic site models is proposed. Finally, this study generates GMPEs for horizontal and vertical elastic response spectral ordinates for different damping values between 1% to 50%. Rather than direct equations for vertical motion, to obtain consistent horizontal and vertical hazard spectrum, compatible vertical-to-horizontal ratio GMPE is preferred. Additional damping scaling models to modify horizontal and vertical spectra at other damping ratios are proposed

Cette thèse porte sur la tectonique active et l’analyse de deux nouvelles failles : la faille de Sharkhai et la faille d’Avdar. Les deux failles ont été découvertes, en 2011, à partir des images satellitaires HR, à quelques dizaines de kilomètres de la capitale de la Mongolie, Oulan Bator. Une approche morpho-tectonique, géomorphologique et paléosismologique, à partir des images de haute résolution Pléiades et d’études de terrain, notamment de tranchées, a permis: 1) de cartographier les deux failles en détail; 2) de décrire leur géométrie et segmentation; 3) de contraindre leur cinématique; 4) de documenter leur activité récente et leur comportement sismique (décalages co-sismiques et cumulés, période de retour, taux de glissement). La faille de Sharkhai s’étend sur 46 km selon une direction comprise entre N42°E et N72°E en moyenne, avec un pendage de 66° à 72° vers le sud-est entre E106.31°/N47.352° et E106.53°/N47.485°, et sub-vertical entre E106.474°/N47.473° et E106.75°/N47.57°. Elle est caractérisée par une géométrie rectiligne et simple en surface. C’est une faille senestre avec une composante verticale normale. L’étude paléosismique met en évidence trois séismes : le séisme EQ3 s’est produit avant 3850±120 calBP, le séisme EQ2 entre 2400±70 calBP et 2030±40 calBP, et le séisme le plus récent (MRE) entre 1090±84 calBP et avant l’âge du sol récent. La période de retour minimum des forts séismes sur la faille de Sharkhai est 1195±157 ans, ce qui implique une vitesse de glissement maximum comprise entre 0.6±0.2 et 2.14±0.5 mm/an. Plusieurs scénarios de segmentation de la faille sont proposés indiquant que la faille est capable de produire des séismes de magnitude comprise entre 6 et 7. L’accélération maximale du sol (PGA au rocher) générée à Oulan Bator serait de 0.12 g, au nouvel aéroport de 0.28 g, et à la ville de Zuunmod de 0.17 g. Ces valeurs correspondent à une intensité (MMI) comprise entre VI et X. La faille d’Avdar s’étend sur 47 km selon une direction moyenne comprise entre N26°E et N88°E avec un pendage variant de 40° à 55°. La partie sud-ouest de la faille est caractérisé par une géométrie simple et linéaire. Par contre, l’architecture de la faille est complexe dans la partie nord-est. Les décalages mesurés indiquent que la faille est une faille senestre avec une composante normale. Les tranchées paléosismiques documentent son activité sismique pendant le quaternaire. La faille peut se diviser en plusieurs segments, suggérant des séismes de magnitude comprise entre 5.8 et 7. Les valeurs de PGA (au rocher) les plus importants seraient de 0.1 g pour Oulan Bator, 0.18 g pour le nouvel aéroport et 0.19 g pour la ville de Zuunmod. Ces valeurs indiquent une intensité de l’ordre de VI à X. Les investigations paléosismiques montrent que le dernier séisme est plus récent que 5665±85 calBP. Tous ces résultats doivent être pris en compte dans l’estimation de l’aléa sismique de la région de la capitale Oulan Bator, qui a elle seule comprend plus de la moitié de la population du pays. Située sur un bassin sédimentaire, elle est le centre commercial et industriel du pays et contient divers bâtiments vulnérables. Enfin, elle est en pleine croissance avec un nouvel aéroport en construction à proximité de la faille de Sharkhai, secteur où la ville va très rapidement s’étendre. / This thesis focuses on the active tectonic of two new faults: the Sharkhai fault and the Avdar faults. Both faults were discovered in 2011 from HR satellite images at tens kilometers from the capital of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar.Morpho-tectonic, geomorphological and paleoseismological approaches using high resolution Pleiades satellites images and field investigations allowed: 1) to map the both faults in details; 2) to describe their geometry and segmentation; 3) to identify their kinematic; 4) to document their recent activity and their seismic behavior (co-seismic and cumulated displacements, the time of the last earthquakes, slip rate). The Sharkhai fault extends 46 km with an average direction between N42°E and N72°E, and a dip between 72° and 66° either to south-east, between E106.31°/N47.352° and E106.53°/N47.485°, or sub-vertical between E106.474°/N47.473° and E106.75°/N47.57°. The fault is characterized by a linear and simple geometry. It is a left lateral strike slip with a normal vertical component. The paleoseismological investigations show evidences for three earthquakes: the EQ3 earthquake occurred before 3850±120 calBP, the EQ2 earthquake between 2400±70 calBP and 2030±40 calBP, and the most recent earthquake (MRE) between 1090±84 calBP and before the age of recent soil. The minimum return period of strong earthquakes on the fault Sharkhai is 1195 ± 157 years, which implies a maximum slip rate between 0.6±0.2 and 2.14±0.5 mm/year. Several segmentation scenarios of the fault where proposed indicating that the fault is capable to produce an earthquake of magnitude between 6 and 7. The maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA at rock) generated at Ulaanbaatar is 0.12 g, 0.28 g at the new airport, and 0.17 g at the city of Zuunmod. These values correspond to intensity between VI and X at rock sites. The Avdar fault, 47 km length, have an average orientation between N26°E and N88°E and a dip between 40° and 55°. The southwestern part of the fault is characterized by a simple and linear geometry while the architecture of the surface rupture is complex in the northeastern part. The measured offsets indicate that the fault is left lateral with a normal component. The paleoseismic trenches attest its seismic activity during the Quaternary. The fault can be divided into several segments suggesting earthquakes of a magnitude ranging from 5.8 to 7. The most important values of PGA (at rock site) would be 0.1 g at Ulaanbaatar, 0.18 g for the new airport and 0.19 g for Zuunmod city. These values indicate an intensity between VI and X. Paleoseismic trench shows that the last earthquake occurred on the fault since 5665± 85calBP. All these results should be considered in estimating the seismic hazard in the region of the capital Ulaanbaatar especially as, alone, it contains more than the half of the country population. Situated in a sedimentary basin, it is the commercial and industrial center of Mongolia and contains many vulnerable buildings. Also, the city is growing with a new airport construction near the fault Sharkhai area where the city will extend very quickly.

No description available.

This dissertation focuses on the active tectonics of Afghanistan|slip-rate estimation of the Chaman fault and assessing seismic hazard in the Kabul basin. Afghanistan is a tectonically complex zone developed as a result of the collision between the Eurasian plate and the Indian plate to the southeast and the Arabian plate to the south. For seismic hazard mitigation, there is no large-scale active fault map in Afghanistan. I, therefore, mapped active and presumed active faults mainly based on interpretation of 1-arcsecond SRTM anaglyph images, and calculate the slip rate of the Chaman fautl based on 10Be TCN dating. / 博士(理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

One of the most difficult tasks towards designing earthquake resistant structures is the determination of critical earthquakes. Conceptually, these are the ground motions that would induce the critical response in the structures being designed. The quantification of this concept, however, is not easy. Unlike the linear response of a structure, which can often be obtained by using a single spectrally modified ground acceleration history, the nonlinear response is strongly dependent on the phasing of ground motion and the detailed shape of its spectrum. This necessitates the use of a suite (bin) of ground acceleration histories having phasing and spectral shapes appropriate for the characteristics of the earthquake source, wave propagation path, and site conditions that control the design spectrum. Further, these suites of records may have to be scaled to match the design spectrum over a period range of interest, rotated into strike-normal and strike-parallel directions for near-fault effects, and modified for local site conditions before they can be input into time-domain nonlinear analysis of structures. The generation of these acceleration histories is cumbersome and daunting. This is especially so due to the sheer magnitude of the data processing involved. The purpose of this thesis is the development and documentation of PC-based computational tools (hereinafter called EQTools) to provide a rapid and consistent means towards systematic assembly of representative strong ground motions and their characterization, evaluation, and modification within a performance-based seismic design framework. The application is graphics-intensive and every effort has been made to make it as user-friendly as possible. The application seeks to provide processed data which will help the user address the problem of determination of the critical earthquakes. The various computational tools developed in EQTools facilitate the identification of severity and damage potential of more than 700 components of recorded earthquake ground motions. The application also includes computational tools to estimate the ground motion parameters for different geographical and tectonic environments, and perform one-dimensional linear/nonlinear site response analysis as a means to predict ground surface motions at sites where soft soils overlay the bedrock. While EQTools may be used for professional practice or academic research, the fundamental purpose behind the development of the software is to make available a classroom/laboratory tool that provides a visual basis for learning the principles behind the selection of ground motion histories and their scaling/modification for input into time domain nonlinear (or linear) analysis of structures. EQTools, in association with NONLIN, a Microsoft Windows based application for the dynamic analysis of single- and multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems (Charney, 2003), may be used for learning the concepts of earthquake engineering, particularly as related to structural dynamics, damping, ductility, and energy dissipation. / Master of Science

[Truncated abstract] The southwest of Western Australia is an intraplate area classified as a stable continental region. It comprises predominantly Archaean and Proterozoic geology and has generally subdued topography. The region currently experiences significant seismicity in the Southwest Seismic Zone (SWSZ), which is one of the most seismically active areas in Australia and is thought to represent the highest seismic hazard of the region. In recent years, numerous scarps, potentially related to large palaeoearthquakes have been recognised not only within the SWSZ, but also in a broader region of the southwest of Australia. Palaeoseismological investigations of two of these scarps, the Dumbleyung and the Lort River scarps, confirm their association with surface-rupturing palaeoearthquakes and indicate events with likely maximum magnitudes of ~Mw 7.0 on faults of low to medium slip rates. Two trenches across the Dumbleyung Fault scarp revealed a thrust fault in alluvial sediments with two associated earthquakes in the last ca 24-60 ka. A possible Holocene age was recognised for the last recorded earthquake event exposed in these trenches. Two trenches across the Lort River Scarp show that this feature results from thrust faulting in the weathered gneissic country rock. These trenches exposed evidence of two events in the last ca 35 ka, with a likely late Pleistocene age for the last earthquake. On both sites, the earthquakes are interpreted as associated with the last phase of fault activity, which was likely been preceded by a long period of quiescence. Assessment of the earthquake hazard associated with large earthquakes at the Dumbleyung and Lort River Faults resulted in calculated peak ground accelerations of up to 2 g in the near-fault fields. Such earthquakes would significantly affect nearby towns such as Dumbleyung, Wagin, Katanning, and Esperance, but they are unlikely to cause any significant damage in Perth. The palaeoseismological investigations show that the earthquake activity in the southwest of Western Australia is not only confined to the SWSZ, as it has been considered in previous assessments of the seismic hazard, but that there is also potential for strong earthquakes across much of the region. The seismicity in the southwest of Western Australia appears to be transient and migratory. This is suggested by the lack of local relief associated with places of current seismicity and fault scarps, the widespread distribution of the fault scarps across the region, the increase in seismicity in the SWSZ following strong recent events, and the apparent long periods of earthquake recurrence at fault sites. Accordingly, the current seismicity in the SWSZ is inferred to be transient and probably associated with stress changes produced by the recent earthquakes. '...' This uplift could be associated with dynamic topography effects resulting from processes along the plate margins. The uplift is probably enhanced by a flexural response of the lithosphere to local differential loads and density contrast along the southern margin, a mechanism that may also help explain the occurrence of some earthquake activity. The results from this study, complemented by additional palaeoseismological studies must be included in future probabilistic assessments of the seismic hazard of the southwest of Western Australia.

Water distribution systems, electrical power transmission systems, and other civil infrastructure systems are essential to the smooth and stable operation of regional economies. Since the functions of such infrastructure systems often are inter-dependent, the systems sometimes suffer unforeseen functional disruptions. For example, the widespread power outage due to the malfunction of an electric power substation, which occurred in the northeastern United States and parts of Canada in August 2003, interrupted the supply of water to several communities, leading to inconvenience and economic losses. The sequence of such failures leading to widespread outages is referred to as a cascading failure. Assessing the vulnerability of communities to natural and man-made hazards should take the possibility of such failures into account. In seismic risk assessment, the risk to a facility or a building is generally specified by one of two basic approaches: through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and a stipulated scenario earthquake (SE). A PSHA has been widely accepted as a basis for design and evaluation of individual buildings, bridges and other facilities. However, the vulnerability assessment of distributed infrastructure facilities requires a model of spatial intensity of earthquake ground motion. Since the ground motions from a PSHA represent an aggregation of earthquakes, they cannot model the spatial variation in intensity. On the other hand, when a SE-based analysis is used, the spatial correlation of seismic intensities must be properly evaluated. This study presents a new methodology for evaluating the functionality of an infrastructure system situated in a region of moderate seismicity considering functional interactions among the systems in the network, cascading failure, and spatial correlation of ground motion. The functional interactions among facilities in the systems are modeled by fault trees, and the impact of cascading failures on serviceability of a networked system is computed by a procedure from the field of operations research known as a shortest path algorithm. The upper and lower bound solutions to spatial correlation of seismic intensities over a region are obtained.