Les troubles anxieux figurent parmi les psychopathologies les plus fréquentes chez les enfants. Ils peuvent avoir de graves répercussions sur leur développement et, à long terme, ils tendent à persister ainsi qu’à s’aggraver. L’évitement est un moyen souvent utilisé par les personnes anxieuses, adultes ou enfants, afin de tenter d’échapper à l'objet de leur peur et ainsi faire diminuer leur niveau d’anxiété. Les schémas cognitifs dysfonctionnels reliés à l’anxiété, et à l’origine de l’évitement, se développent tôt chez l’enfant et sont en partie reliés aux interactions parent-enfant. La présente recherche vise à examiner, à l’aide d’une analyse séquentielle des interactions, la dépendance entre les comportements d’anxiété et d’évitement chez les membres de 20 dyades parent-enfant, dont les enfants sont âgés entre 4 et 7 ans. La tâche d’interaction, une histoire à compléter par les membres de la dyade, a la capacité de susciter des émotions anxieuses chez les participants. Les résultats de cette étude ne permettent pas de démontrer une dépendance entre les comportements d’anxiété et d’évitement des parents et ceux des enfants. La discussion présente des éléments de réflexion sur des pistes de recherche à explorer. / Anxiety disorders are common among children. They can have serious consequences on their development, and tend to persist or even get worst over time. Avoidance behaviors are often used by anxious people, including children, to escape the object of their fear and to decrease their anxiety level. Dysfunctionnal anxious cognitions that support avoidance tend to develop early in childhood and are partially related to parent-child interactions. The objective of the present study was to examine sequential dependency between anxious and avoidant behaviours, by means of sequential analysis of parent-child interactions. The sample included 20 parent-child dyads, children being aged between 4 and 7 years. A story-completion task was administered in order to arouse anxious feelings in participants. Results of the present study did not suggest a dependency between anxious and avoidant behaviours among dyads. The discussion proposes avenues for future research to explore.

As ações presentes durante a construção de estruturas de edifícios em concreto armado são significantemente influenciadas pelo processo construtivo e podem ultrapassar a capacidade resistente definida no projeto estrutural. Os pavimentos recém concretados são suportados por pavimentos previamente concretados, através de um sistema de fôrmas, escoras e reescoras. Se houver fissuração prematura os pavimentos terão maiores deformações ao longo do tempo. Assim sendo, o trabalho apresenta um procedimento de análise estrutural que leva em conta a seqüência natural de construção. A definição das ações nos pavimentos durante a construção estabelece a história de carregamentos dos elementos estruturais do início ao fim da obra. Os modelos tridimensionais (utilizando o método dos elementos finitos) aqui apresentados consideram que o tempo altera as propriedades de resistência e deformabilidade do concreto antes dos 28 dias. Com isso, é definido um novo método para a determinação da distribuição das ações de construção entre o sistema de escoramento e os pavimentos interligados (Método Aproximado). Além disso, propõe-se uma nova metodologia para verificação dos estados limites considerando a existência das etapas de construção. / The loads during construction of multistory reinforced concrete structures are significantly influenced by the construction schedule and can exceed the supporting structure\'s design capacity. The fresh floors are supported by previously cast floors, through a system of forms, shores and reshores. If cracked prematurely, the floors will have larger time-dependent deflections. Then, the text presents a procedure for structural analysis that takes into account the natural sequence of construction. Definition of the loads on floors during construction provides a view of the history of structural element loads from the beginning to the end of construction work. The tridimensional models (using the finite element method) presented herein considers that the time affects the strenght and deformability properties of concrete before 28 days. Then, a new method for determining how the construction loads are distributed among the shoring system and the interconnected floors is defined (Approximated Method). Further, a new methodology for the limit states verification taking into account the construction phases is proposed.

This paper deals with CUSUM tests for monitoring of intensity parameter of a Poisson process if this process can be observed in a restricted manner only at pregiven equidistant time points. In this case the process can be monitored by means of a CUSUM test for the parameter of a corresponding Poisson distribution. For rational reference parameter values the computation of average run length is reduced to that of solving of a system of simultaneous linear equations. The performance of obtained CUSUM tests is discussed by means of corresponding examples.

Le vieillissement de la population entraîne une hausse des maladies chroniques telle que la maladie d’Alzheimer dans nos sociétés occidentales. L’enjeu du vieillissement se répercute aussi dans les réformes de nos politiques sociales, et plus généralement dans la gestion des services publics. Dans ce contexte, le régime de santé publique québécois connaît diverses modifications concernant la prestation de soins de première ligne. De nouveaux acteurs acquièrent des rôles et des responsabilités définissant des enjeux particuliers. Nous étudierons l’un de ces enjeux. Ce mémoire vise à spécifier les processus sociaux à la base de l’isolement des aidants familiaux de personnes atteintes par la maladie d’Alzheimer. La stigmatisation des aidants et les microprocessus afférents sont les principaux mécanismes analysés. Les données sont extraites d’entrevues semi-structurées réalisées avec une cohorte d’aidants familiaux (N=60) suivie longitudinalement depuis le début de leur trajectoire de soins. Une démarche qualitative soutient ce projet. Nous avons analysé un échantillon de douze participants au moyen d’une approche séquentielle. Trois processus typiques ont été identifiés : le stigma de forme en ruptures (séparation sociale), le stigma de forme transitoire (stigma transitoire) et le stigma de forme anomique (anomie sociale). Les résultats suggèrent que les réseaux sociaux des aidants sont soumis à un ensemble de conditions favorisant la structuration du stigma social, la principale condition étant un enjeu de pouvoir concernant le contrôle de la personne malade. Les aidants conjoints de personnes atteintes sont plus enclins à la stigmatisation en début de trajectoire. / Aging populations in western societies contribute to the raise of chronic illnesses such as Alzheimer disease. The issue of aging also echoes in recent political reforms and more generally in the way we manage public services. In this context, Quebec’s public health regime has known diverse modifications concerning “first line caregiving” (soins de première ligne). New actors of the public system have acquired roles and responsibilities defining particular issues. We address one of these issues. This research aims at specifying the social processes inherent to the isolation of family caregivers helping a relative suffering from Alzheimer disease. The stigmatization process and related microprocesses are the principal mechanisms analysed. The data derives from in-depth, semi-structured interviews, realised with a cohort of sixty family caregivers followed longitudinally since the beginning of their care trajectories. A qualitative scheme bears out our investigation. We have analysed a sample of twelve participants using a sequential approach. Three typical processes were identified: social separation, transitory stigma and social anomia. Results suggest that the caregivers’ support networks are subjected to a setting of conditions structuring social stigma, the recurrent condition being an issue of power implying the social control of the ill relative. Caregivers who also are the spouses of the ill relative are the most inclined to stigmatization in early trajectory.

Les troubles anxieux figurent parmi les psychopathologies les plus fréquentes chez les enfants. Ils peuvent avoir de graves répercussions sur leur développement et, à long terme, ils tendent à persister ainsi qu’à s’aggraver. L’évitement est un moyen souvent utilisé par les personnes anxieuses, adultes ou enfants, afin de tenter d’échapper à l'objet de leur peur et ainsi faire diminuer leur niveau d’anxiété. Les schémas cognitifs dysfonctionnels reliés à l’anxiété, et à l’origine de l’évitement, se développent tôt chez l’enfant et sont en partie reliés aux interactions parent-enfant. La présente recherche vise à examiner, à l’aide d’une analyse séquentielle des interactions, la dépendance entre les comportements d’anxiété et d’évitement chez les membres de 20 dyades parent-enfant, dont les enfants sont âgés entre 4 et 7 ans. La tâche d’interaction, une histoire à compléter par les membres de la dyade, a la capacité de susciter des émotions anxieuses chez les participants. Les résultats de cette étude ne permettent pas de démontrer une dépendance entre les comportements d’anxiété et d’évitement des parents et ceux des enfants. La discussion présente des éléments de réflexion sur des pistes de recherche à explorer. / Anxiety disorders are common among children. They can have serious consequences on their development, and tend to persist or even get worst over time. Avoidance behaviors are often used by anxious people, including children, to escape the object of their fear and to decrease their anxiety level. Dysfunctionnal anxious cognitions that support avoidance tend to develop early in childhood and are partially related to parent-child interactions. The objective of the present study was to examine sequential dependency between anxious and avoidant behaviours, by means of sequential analysis of parent-child interactions. The sample included 20 parent-child dyads, children being aged between 4 and 7 years. A story-completion task was administered in order to arouse anxious feelings in participants. Results of the present study did not suggest a dependency between anxious and avoidant behaviours among dyads. The discussion proposes avenues for future research to explore.

As ações presentes durante a construção de estruturas de edifícios em concreto armado são significantemente influenciadas pelo processo construtivo e podem ultrapassar a capacidade resistente definida no projeto estrutural. Os pavimentos recém concretados são suportados por pavimentos previamente concretados, através de um sistema de fôrmas, escoras e reescoras. Se houver fissuração prematura os pavimentos terão maiores deformações ao longo do tempo. Assim sendo, o trabalho apresenta um procedimento de análise estrutural que leva em conta a seqüência natural de construção. A definição das ações nos pavimentos durante a construção estabelece a história de carregamentos dos elementos estruturais do início ao fim da obra. Os modelos tridimensionais (utilizando o método dos elementos finitos) aqui apresentados consideram que o tempo altera as propriedades de resistência e deformabilidade do concreto antes dos 28 dias. Com isso, é definido um novo método para a determinação da distribuição das ações de construção entre o sistema de escoramento e os pavimentos interligados (Método Aproximado). Além disso, propõe-se uma nova metodologia para verificação dos estados limites considerando a existência das etapas de construção. / The loads during construction of multistory reinforced concrete structures are significantly influenced by the construction schedule and can exceed the supporting structure\'s design capacity. The fresh floors are supported by previously cast floors, through a system of forms, shores and reshores. If cracked prematurely, the floors will have larger time-dependent deflections. Then, the text presents a procedure for structural analysis that takes into account the natural sequence of construction. Definition of the loads on floors during construction provides a view of the history of structural element loads from the beginning to the end of construction work. The tridimensional models (using the finite element method) presented herein considers that the time affects the strenght and deformability properties of concrete before 28 days. Then, a new method for determining how the construction loads are distributed among the shoring system and the interconnected floors is defined (Approximated Method). Further, a new methodology for the limit states verification taking into account the construction phases is proposed.

Orientador: Cristiano Torezzan / Dissertação (mestrado profissional) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T20:22:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Costa_MichellyGuerra_M.pdf: 529315 bytes, checksum: 0d134b8239c73b591005b036b0339e20 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: No presente trabalho investigamos as semelhanças entre registros de lançamentos extraídos de jogos reais de basquetebol e sequências aleatórias geradas por algoritmos computacionais. Nosso principal objetivo é comparar o comportamento das sequências de arremessos consecutivos de jogadores ao longo de uma temporada com sequências aleatórias de zeros e uns (sequências de Bernoulli) geradas computacionalmente. Para tanto, foram desenvolvidos algoritmos computacionais específicos para os testes e implementados na plataforma Scilab para análise dos dados. Os testes realizados neste trabalho indicam que, de maneira geral, não existem diferenças estatísticas entre os dois conjuntos de dados considerados. Além de uma breve revisão sobre testes estatísticos e sobre o problema da boa fase no jogo de basquetebol, apresentamos diversos exemplos visando tornar o texto acessível para alunos de graduação ou demais interessados em estatística aplicada, em especial ao esporte / Abstract: In this work we investigate the similarities between records of shots extracted from real basketball games and random sequences generated by computational algorithms. Our goal is to compare the behavior of sequences of consecutive shots of players throughout a season with random sequences of zeros and ones (Bernoulli sequences) generated computationally. For this purpose, computational algorithms have been developed for specific tests and implemented in the Scilab platform. The tests performed in this study indicate that, in general, there are no statistical differences between the two sets of data considered. Besides a brief review of statistical tests and the problem of good stage in the game of basketball, we present several examples in order to make the text accessible to undergraduates or others interested in applied statistics, especially the ones concerning this sport / Mestrado / Matematica / Mestra em Matemática

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet « SCALA » financé par l’ANR à travers le programme ANR-11-SECU-0005. Son objectif consiste à surveiller des systèmes de contrôle et d’acquisition de données (SCADA) contre des attaques cyber-physiques. Il s'agit de résoudre un problème de détection-localisation séquentielle de signaux transitoires dans des systèmes stochastiques et dynamiques en présence d'états inconnus et de bruits aléatoires. La solution proposée s'appuie sur une approche par redondance analytique composée de deux étapes : la génération de résidus, puis leur évaluation. Les résidus sont générés de deux façons distinctes, avec le filtre de Kalman ou par projection sur l’espace de parité. Ils sont ensuite évalués par des méthodes d’analyse séquentielle de rupture selon de nouveaux critères d’optimalité adaptés à la surveillance des systèmes à sécurité critique. Il s'agit donc de minimiser la pire probabilité de détection manquée sous la contrainte de niveaux acceptables pour la pire probabilité de fausse alarme et la pire probabilité de fausse localisation. Pour la tâche de détection, le problème d’optimisation est résolu dans deux cas : les paramètres du signal transitoire sont complètement connus ou seulement partiellement connus. Les propriétés statistiques des tests sous-optimaux obtenus sont analysées. Des résultats préliminaires pour la tâche de localisation sont également proposés. Les algorithmes développés sont appliqués à la détection et à la localisation d'actes malveillants dans un réseau d’eau potable / This PhD thesis is registered in the framework of the project “SCALA” which received financial support through the program ANR-11-SECU-0005. Its ultimate objective involves the on-line monitoring of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems against cyber-physical attacks. The problem is formulated as the sequential detection and isolation of transient signals in stochastic-dynamical systems in the presence of unknown system states and random noises. It is solved by using the analytical redundancy approach consisting of two steps: residual generation and residual evaluation. The residuals are firstly generated by both Kalman filter and parity space approaches. They are then evaluated by using sequential analysis techniques taking into account certain criteria of optimality. However, these classical criteria are not adequate for the surveillance of safety-critical infrastructures. For such applications, it is suggested to minimize the worst-case probability of missed detection subject to acceptable levels on the worst-case probability of false alarm and false isolation. For the detection task, the optimization problem is formulated and solved in both scenarios: exactly and partially known parameters. The sub-optimal tests are obtained and their statistical properties are investigated. Preliminary results for the isolation task are also obtained. The proposed algorithms are applied to the detection and isolation of malicious attacks on a simple SCADA water network

This paper deals with CUSUM tests based on grouped or classified observations. The computation of average run length is reduced to that of solving of a system of simultaneous linear equations. Moreover a corresponding approximation based on the Wald approximations for characteristics of sequential likelihood ratio tests is presented. The effect of grouping is investigated with a CUSUM test for the mean of a normal distribution based on F-optimal grouping schemes. The considered example demonstrates that hight efficient CUSUM tests can be obtained for F-optimal grouping schemes already with a small number of groups.

This paper deals with sequential likelihood ratio tests based on grouped observations. It is demonstrated that the method of conjugated parameter pairs known from the non-grouped case can be extended to the grouped case obtaining Waldlike approximations for the OC- and ASN- function. For near hypotheses so-called F-optimal groupings are recommended. As example an SPRT based on grouped observations for the parameter of an exponentially distributed random variable is considered.