This dissertation examines the hitherto neglected role foreign, and specifically German, bankers played in the Chinese economy and the history of modern economic globalisation in China during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. By following the history of the German Deutsch-Asiatische Bank (DAB) during the last two decades of the Qing dynasty and the first years of the Chinese republic, this dissertation shows how the interaction between foreign bankers and Chinese officials, bankers and entrepreneurs led to the rapid internationalisation of Chinese finance, both in terms of public finance and the banking sector of China’s treaty port economy. Unlike most previous literature, which only depicts foreign banks in modern China as mere manifestations of foreign imperialism, this dissertation demonstrates that foreign banks acted as intermediary institutions that financially connected China to the first global economy and provided the financial infrastructure necessary to make modern economic globalisation in China during the late 19th and early 20th centuries possible. At the same time, this dissertation stresses the importance of Chinese agency for the operation of foreign banks in China’s treaty ports and shows that the interaction between foreign bankers and Chinese actors was made up as much of cooperation as of conflict. In sum, this dissertation not only furthers our knowledge of the role foreign banks played in the modern Chinese economy, but also contributes to our understanding of how China was financially integrated into the first global economy.

Este trabalho testa, através da metodologia de cópulas, a hipótese de contágio financeiro entre ações brasileiras e índices de mercado dos países que deram origem às crises do Terror em 2001, da Argentina em 2001, dos Subpprimes em 2007 e do Débito Soberano Europeu em 2009. Além disso, ainda é feita uma análise dos setores econômicos que mais foram afetados por cada crise. Os testes da crise do Terror apresentaram evidências de contágio do SP500 para 24 ações brasileiras, afetando, principalmente os setores ligado à indústria e à energia. As crises da Argentina e do Débito Soberano Europeu apresentaram evidências de contágio dos índices Merval e Athex para apenas 3 empresas. A crise dos Subprimes apresentou evidências de contágio do SP500 para 35 empresas brasileiras, sendo a maioria ligada aos setores financeiros, de energia e industrial. 7 ações foram afetadas pelas duas crises norteamericanas. Os resultados reforçam a importância da análise de contágio em cada empresa individual, ao invés de utilizar o índice do mercado brasileiro como um todo. / This paper tests, through the copulas methodology, the hypothesis of financial contagion between the individual Brazilian stocks and the market indices of the countries where the crises were originated. The crises analyzed are the Terror crisis in 2001, the Argentina’s crisis in 2001, the Subprime crisis in 2007 and the Sovereign Debt crisis in 2009. In addition to this, the Brazilian economic sectors are examined in order to find out which were most affected by each crisis. The tests of the Terror crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion to 24 Brazilian stocks, affecting, mainly, sectors related to industry and energy. The Argentina’s crisis and the European Sovereign Debt crisis presented contagion’s evidence of the Merval and Athex indices for only 3 Brazilian companies. The Subprimes crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion for 35 Brazilian companies, mostly related to the financial, energy and industrial sectors. 7 Brazilian stocks were affected by both American crises. The results reinforce the importance of contagion analysis in each individual company, rather than using the Brazilian market index.

This master thesis analyzes the relationship between the change of sovereign rating and market behaviour. The first part is devoted to rating itself. I present the various types of the rating, development, structure and risks of the market for credit rating agencies. The second part focuses on the nature of government bonds and the methodology for determining credit rating. The third part contains an analysis of market indicators in selected countries, econometric analysis of the relationship between credit ratings and risk perception in the market and comparison with other indicators of potential default. I summarize all the knowledge in the conclusion and I am trying to predict future developments in the market for credit rating agencies.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-11-17T12:54:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Flávia Raquel Mattes_.pdf: 1077169 bytes, checksum: 8f39dae946a312e96c8e6a7ce0ae12c7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-17T12:54:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Flávia Raquel Mattes_.pdf: 1077169 bytes, checksum: 8f39dae946a312e96c8e6a7ce0ae12c7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-15 / Nenhuma / O presente estudo tem por objetivo analisar e classificar as cláusulas restritivas dos contratos de emissões de debêntures, verificando as alterações destas cláusulas e as influências do cenário de elevação de risco, mensurado pelo rating soberano brasileiro, apresentado na data de emissão das debêntures. Adicionalmente, verificar as estruturas dos covenants e mecanismos utilizados para a mitigação de risco nas emissões e determinar quais os covenants contábeis e financeiros mais utilizados nos dois períodos de risco estabelecidos. Para estudar estas alterações, foram verificados os contratos de emissões de debêntures emitidas no período de 01/01/2011 até 31/03/2016, de emissões com registro na CVM e na modalidade ICVM 400. Após a coleta de dados realizada, foi formada uma base de dados com 49 escrituras de emissões e 1.883 cláusulas restritivas, organizadas em 2 grupos de acordo com o rating soberano apresentado na data de emissão da escritura de debêntures. Foram utilizadas técnicas de estatística e análise qualitativa mediante a leitura e classificação dos covenants de todas as escrituras, prospectos, atas de assembleia de debenturistas e relatórios de agentes fiduciários. Os resultados do estudo demonstram que no período de maior risco os emissores apresentam dificuldades em cumprir os covenants financeiros e manter o rating apurado pelas agências classificadoras no início do contrato, resultando em eventos de inadimplementos e descumprimento dos covenants, nos quais os debenturistas e os emissores efetuaram acordos com pagamento de prêmios adicionais de risco e repactuações visando garantir a continuidade dos contratos até o vencimento, em detrimento de exigir o pagamento antecipado da dívida. Após a análise proposta e dos resultados, de acordo com o objetivo do estudo, foi possível demonstrar que o risco soberano não causa impacto como alterações estruturais nos covenants e no nível de restritividade dos covenants contábeis, embora as alterações de risco tenham consequências econômicas na captação de investimentos para as empresas. / The present study aims to analyze and to classify the covenants of debenture issuance contracts, assessing the main changes of such terms and the influences of the increasing risk scenario, measured by the Brazilian sovereign rating, submitted on the date of issuance of the debentures. In addition, it analyses covenant structures and mechanisms used for risk mitigation in issuing and determining which accounting and financial covenants are the most used in both risk periods established. In order to study these changes, the debentures contracts issued in the period between 01/01/2011 to 03/31/2016 were analyzed, registered with the CVM and CVM Instruction 400. After collecting data, it was formed a database with 49 issuing scriptures and 1.883 covenants, organized into 2 groups according to the sovereign rating displayed on the date of issuance of debentures. Statistical techniques and qualitative analysis were used by reading and rating of the covenants of all scriptures, prospectuses, debenture holder’s meeting minutes and trustees reports. The findings showed that it was during the greatest period of risk when issuers had difficulties to meet financial covenants and to maintain the rating determined by the rating agencies at the beginning of the contract, resulting in defaults events and noncompliance with the covenants in which the debenture holders and issuers agreed with payment of additional premiums of risk and renegotiations to ensure the continuity of contracts to maturity, to the detriment of demanding early repayment of debt. Upon completion of the proposed methodology and results analysis, according to the purpose of the study, we could demonstrate that sovereign risk has no impact as structural changes in the covenants and restrictive level of financial covenants, although the risk of changes have economic consequences in attracting investment for companies.

The dissertation consists of two essays. In the first essay we study the efficiency of banks during the period of (2000-2017) that witnessed a fierce financial crisis in the light of the regulatory acts enacted in response to the crisis (Basel III 2010). We investigate the combined impact of compliance with Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, common equity Tier 1, and leverage requirements on bank operating efficiency. We measure operational efficiency of 68 insured, U.S. federally and state-chartered, commercial banks, with consolidated assets of $15 billion or more, over a sampling period of 18 years. We seek to identify whether different dimensions of bank regulation are efficient in stabilizing US financial system by improving efficiency of large commercial banks; whether they impede bank efficiency by limiting its risk-taking endeavors and tightening its capital usage; or whether no impact on efficiency exists altogether. We build an empirical model measuring the impact of capital and leverage regulation and credit risk on banks’ operational efficiency. Empirical findings show a positive and statistically significant impact of capital adequacy on operating efficiency of large U.S. commercial banks, with common equity Tier 1 having more power in determining efficiency. Leverage requirements and net charge-offs are also found to be significant determinants that promote bank operating efficiency. In the second essay we investigate determinants for government’s choice of sovereign Sukuk over conventional bonds. Using a sample of 143 sovereign Sukuk and 602 sovereign conventional bonds issued in 16 OIC countries during (2000-2015), we analyze factors affecting the government's choice of employing sovereign Sukuk structure as substitute to sovereign bonds instruments. Results suggest that countries having developed financial markets, higher credit quality, and strong economic and financial prospects are more likely to issue sovereign Sukuk rather than sovereign bonds, mainly as a strategy to diversify and develop their current debt markets by introducing newly-developed debt tools. However, countries with weaker economic and financial indicators are more likely to opt for the classic sovereign bonds. We conclude that government’s choice of sovereign debt is mainly determined by a country’s financial characteristics, macroeconomic indicators and certain specific events.

This paper is a study on how U.S stock market reacts on sovereign credit rating announcements, and if there is a significant difference between low or high debt firms. We have used an event study based on historical stock prices from 30 companies, 15 with high debt and 15 with low debt. All companies are taken from the S&P`s 500 index which we also use as a market index. We use a regression model with 10 % significance level to see if there is a significant impact on high debt firms. Our result shows that the market will be affected by the downgrade. We also conclude that there was a significant negative impact on the high debt firms.

When adjusted to sovereign entities, the structural credit risk model assumes a negative (positive) relationship between sovereign CDS spreads and stock prices (volatilities). In theory both markets are supposed to incorporate new information simultaneously. Discrepancies from the theoretical relationship can be exploited by capital structure arbitrageurs. In our thesis we study the intertemporal relationship between sovereign CDS and stock index markets in East Asia during the period of 2007 – 2011. We detect a negative (by and large positive) relationship between the Asian CDS spreads and stock indexes (volatilities). Across the whole region the sovereign CDS market dominates the price discovery process. However, 4 out of 7 Asian countries (Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines) demonstrate a feedback effect. The stock markets of countries with higher credit spreads (Indonesia, the Philippines and Korea) appear to react more severely at heightened variance in the CDS market. When considered separately for turbulent vs. calm periods, we find that the lead-lag relationship between the Asian sovereign CDS and stock markets is not stable. Apart from that, both markets become more interrelated during periods of increased volatility. The dependency of Asian CDS spreads and stock indexes on the “fear index” detected in the frames of robustness check implies an integration of both markets into the global one. Therefore, while seeking for arbitrage opportunities in the respective Asian markets one should also take into account possible influences of broader global factors.

Darbo tema yra aktuali tuo, kad tarptautinės reitingų agentūros, įvertindamos skolų krizę Europoje, pastaruoju metu daugeliui šalių mažino valstybės kredito reitingus ar blogino jų perspektyvas. Nors po prieš trejus metus patirto nuosmukio Baltijos šalių reitingai ir stabilizavosi, jų aukštesnių reikšmių išlaikymas Baltijos valstybėms yra svarbus užsienio investicijų pritraukimo ir šių šalių finansų sektoriaus vystymosi veiksnys. Vis dėlto, reitingų gerėjimas gali turėti ir priešingą poveikį.Todėl svarbu išsiaiškinti situaciją Baltijos šalyse. Tiriamojo darbo objektas yra Baltijos šalių ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi užsienio valiuta reitingai bei ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi nacionaline valiuta reitingai. Šio darbo tikslas - atlikus teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos šalyse. Darbo tikslui pasiekti buvo suformuluoti uždaviniai: atlikti teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, išanalizuoti Baltijos šalių finansų sektoriaus išsivystymo lygį bei užsienio investicijų srautų ir kredito reitingų šiose šalyse pokyčių tendencijas, reitingus įtakojusius veiksnius, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The topic of the work is relevant due to the fact, that international credit rating agencies, assessing the debt crisis in Europe, recently downgraded credit ratings or their outlook for many countries. Despite the fact that sovereign credit ratings of Baltic states have stabilized after the decline occured three years ago, higher ratings are the essential factor for Baltic states, seeking to attract foreign investment and promote their financial sector development. Though, the improvements of ratings may have the opposite effect. Therefore, it is important to clarify the situation in Baltic states. The object of the research work – the Baltic states‘ short and long term in foreign and local currency ratings. The purpose of this paper is to establish the impact of sovereign credit ratings on the financial sector development and international capital flows in the Baltic states, doing theoretical analysis on sovereign credit ratings and their impact on the financial sector development and international capital flows in a country. In order to achieve an objective, the following tasks have been fomulated: to accomplish above-mentioned theoretical analysis, to analyse the level of financial sector development, changes in trends of international capital flows and sovereign credit ratings in the Baltic states, reveal the main factors, which affected ratings in these countries and ascertain the influence of these ratings on the financial sector development and international capital... [to full text]

This paper analyses if European citizens are willing to show solidarity with debt-ridden EU member states during the recent crisis. Based on a theoretical concept comprehending four di-mensions of solidarity - generalised willingness to support, existence of social cleavages, rea-sons of supporting others, acceptance of conditions a crisis country has to meet to receive as-sistance - we derived hypotheses stating that the existence of a European wide solidarity is rather unlikely. We analysed data from two Eurobarometer surveys 2010 and 2011 and a unique survey conducted in Germany and Portugal in 2012. Descriptive and multilevel analyses indi-cated that in 2010 and 2011, a narrow majority of all EU citizens supported fiscal assistance for crisis countries, and socio-economic and cultural cleavages in attitudes regarding financial as-sistance for crisis countries were rather low. Findings from the two country comparison showed that the willingness to show solidarity was predominantly guided by moral reasoning instead of the respondent’s self-interest. However, German and Portuguese respondents disagree on austerity measures, with the exception of social spending cuts. Taken all together, we come to the conclusion that recent years have brought a new legitimacy to the use of EU bailout measures which are now a given European practice.

This master dissertation aim to chart the genesis and trends of the recent banking regulations in the context of the dynamic events which have occurred on the financial markets from year 2008, first of all in the framework of sovereign risk regulation. On the base of analyze these processes try to find solutions how to improve the banking regulations.