Limited systematic research has investigated how conflict events shape the spatial-temporal variation of insurgent violence against civilians. Although previous research has investigated how degrees of territorial control relate to general levels of violence against civilians, it remains largely an open question how the dynamics within territorial control determine violence against civilians by insurgents. This study aims to address this gap by hypothesizing that (1) insurgents become more likely to commit fatal violence against civilians, and (2) kill more civilians in contested areas when they lose territorial control. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) was used along with Peace Research Institute Oslo’s (PRIO) GRID Dataset to create a novel data frame of all territorially contested area-weeks on the African continent between 1997 and 2017 (n = 3035). Contrary to theoretical expectations, logistic regressions indicate a lower risk of insurgent violence against civilians in contested areas following an insurgent territorial loss than following a break-even. Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions moreover tentatively indicate that insurgents kill more civilians following territorial wins in the short-term, and following territorial loss in the long-term. These results suggest that proactive counterinsurgency campaigns are in the interest of civilians in civil war.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-05-16T12:05:36Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-05-16T12:06:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-16T12:06:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-18 / The present research was developed in the city of Goiânia-GO with the objective of analyzing the importance of the Areião and Vaca Brava Parks in the mitigation of heat islands, from the spatial and temporal variation of temperature and relative humidity of the air and Absolute minimum, considering different forms of land use and occupation. The analysis considered the parameters temperature and relative humidity of the maximum and minimum air; Morphometric aspects, such as slope, hypsometry, orientation of the slopes; The different patterns of land use and occupation; The regional circulation. The morphometric information was obtained from the digital cartographic base model of the Urban Basic Digital Map of Goiânia (MUBDG, version 23) using ArcGis 10.1 software. The soil use and occupation pattern was obtained from the orthophoto image. The theoretical and methodological proposal was structured in the S.C.U (Urban Climate System), based on the Monteiro thermodynamic perception channel (1976). Air temperature and humidity data were obtained in situ and by means of secondary data provided by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) from May to December 2016. In situ data were obtained from thermocouples (Datalogger) installed in (Sezarino and Monteiro, 1990b), with records every 15 minutes, distributed in densely urbanized sites and parks (Areião and Vaca Brava). The study area is located in the southern portion of Goiânia, due to the peculiar characteristics of a metropolis city. This research allowed to understand the spatial and temporal variation of the temperature and relative humidity of the air, being that the aspect of the seasonality is strongly identified. Among the analyzed factors, the morphometry, in this scale of analysis, had little influence on the spatial variation of the data. The pattern of land use and occupation was what, together with the regional dynamics, established influences in the analysis of data behavior. Specifically, points P3 and P4 (Field Headquarters of Goiás Esporte Clube and State College Pedro Xavier Teixeira) presented higher values of maximum air temperature (38.8 and 39.8 ° C) and the lowest relative humidity Air, of 18%. The importance of points P1 and P2 (Areião and Vaca Brava parks) is emphasized for cooling the temperature and increasing the humidity of the air in the place. They presented during the period considered hotter and drier in the study area, contribution of up to 5,5ºC in the cooling of the air temperature and, of up to 7%, in the higher humidity, thus improving the environmental quality. It is considered that due to the strong climatic seasonality of Goiânia, it is necessary to expand green areas as corridors integrated with the city parks in order to make it possible to cool the effects of the heat island. / A pesquisa que ora se apresenta foi desenvolvida na cidade de Goiânia-GO com o objetivo de analisar a importância dos Parques Areião e Vaca Brava na mitigação das ilhas de calor, a partir da variação espacial e temporal da temperatura e umidade relativa do ar máximas e mínimas absolutas, considerando diferentes formas de uso e ocupação do solo. A análise considerou os parâmetros temperatura e umidade relativa do ar máxima e mínima; aspectos morfométricos, como declividade, hipsometria, orientação das vertentes; os diferentes padrões de uso e ocupação do solo e; a circulação regional. As informações morfométricos foram obtidas a partir do modelo da base cartográfica digital do Mapa Urbano Básico Digital de Goiânia (MUBDG, versão 23), utilizando-se software ArcGis 10.1. O padrão de uso e ocupação do solo foi obtido a partir da imagem da ortofoto 2011. A proposta teórica e metodológica foi estruturada no S.C.U (Sistema do Clima Urbano), a partir do canal de percepção termodinâmico de Monteiro (1976). Os dados de temperatura e umidade do ar foram obtidos in situ e por meio de dados secundários disponibilizados pelo INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), entre maio a dezembro de 2016. Os dados in situ foram obtidos a partir de termohigrômetros (Datalogger) instalados em mini abrigo meteorológico (Sezarino e Monteiro, 1990b), com registros a cada 15 minutos, distribuídos em locais densamente urbanizados e de parques (Areião e Vaca Brava). A área de estudo está localizada na porção Sul de Goiânia, por apresentar características peculiares de cidade de porte de metrópole. Essa pesquisa permitiu compreender a variação espacial e temporal da temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, sendo que o aspecto da sazonalidade é fortemente identificado. Dentre os fatores analisados, a morfometria, nessa escala de análise, pouco influenciou na variação espacial dos dados. O padrão de uso e ocupação do solo foi o que estabeleceu, juntamente com a dinâmica regional, influencias na análise do comportamento dos dados. Especificamente os pontos P3 e P4 (Sede do Campo do Goiás Esporte Clube e Colégio Estadual Pedro Xavier Teixeira) apresentaram valores mais elevados de temperatura máxima do ar (38,8 e 39,8°C) e, os menores índices de umidade relativa do ar, de 18%. Ressalta-se a importância dos pontos P1 e P2 (parques Areião e Vaca Brava) para o arrefecimento da temperatura e aumento da umidade do ar no local. Apresentaram durante o período considerado mais quente e mais seco na área de estudo, contribuição de até 5,5ºC no arrefecimento da temperatura do ar e, de até 7%, no de umidade mais elevada, melhorando assim a qualidade ambiental. Considera-se que mediante a forte sazonalidade climática de Goiânia, faz-se necessário a ampliação de áreas verdes como corredores integrados com os parques da cidade de forma a possibilitar o arrefecimento dos efeitos da ilha de calor.

Os efeitos de borda e a alteração da estrutura das paisagens constituem consequências negativas da fragmentação florestal responsáveis por transformações nos processos ecológicos. Decorrentes da expansão desordenada de atividades antrópicas, estas alterações podem comprometer o futuro dos remanescentes florestais e a manutenção dos recursos naturais na superfície terrestre. Nesta dissertação a dinâmica da vegetação arbórea foi analisada em oito transectos perpendiculares às bordas de seis remanescentes florestais entre 1996 e 2012. As paisagens do entorno destes transectos foram caracterizadas a partir de imagens orbitais de 1995 e 2011 para a verificação das mudanças ocorridas no uso do solo e para a investigação da influência de seus parâmetros físicos e estruturais sobre as taxas de mortalidade e recrutamento de espécies. Os resultados indicaram que, ao longo do tempo, a influência das bordas se pronunciou em direção ao interior dos remanescentes florestais, enquanto que o contraste entre a borda e o interior se atenuou. A distância média da borda das espécies: pioneiras/iniciais, anemocóricas e de dossel foi significativamente maior em 2012 do que em 1996. A comunidade arbórea apresentou menor similaridade em sua composição ao longo do tempo a menores distâncias da borda. Apesar da dinâmica verificada no uso do solo, a proporcionalidade dos parâmetros físicos e estruturais das paisagens se manteve entre 1995 e 2011. De maneira geral, estes parâmetros apresentaram pouca influência sobre a dinâmica da comunidade arbórea. Apenas as taxas de mortalidade das espécies exóticas e as taxas de recrutamento das espécies pioneiras/inicias apresentam forte relação com o tamanho e o número dos fragmentos florestais nas paisagens. Estes resultados indicam que os efeitos de borda precisam ser atenuados e que o contexto das paisagens deve ser incorporado às estratégias conservacionistas para que estas sejam efetivas e o futuro dos remanescentes florestais não seja comprometido. / Edge effects and landscape structure alterations are among the negative consequences of forest fragmentation responsible for ecological process alterations on the earths surface. Originated from the disordered expansion of anthropogenic activities these alterations may endanger the remaining forest patches future and the maintenance of natural resources. This dissertation was pledged to analyze the vegetation dynamics at forest edges and its relations with landscape features. The vegetation dynamics was examined through eight perpendicular-to-edge transects within six forest patches and the alterations on the arboreal community distribution and composition were assessed between 1996 and 2012. The surrounding landscapes of the analyzed transects were characterized from 1995 and 2011 orbital images and its land use changes were evaluated. Landscape structure and physical parameters influence were analyzed over species recruitment and mortality. The results indicated that the distance of edge influence increased over time while its magnitude was attenuated. The average distance from the edge of pioneer/earlysuccessional species, wind-dispersed and canopy species in 2012 became significantly larger than in 1996. Over time lower similarities in species composition were found to be closer to the edges. Although the observed land use changes in the surrounding landscapes of the edge transects landscape structure and physical parameters proportionality was maintained between 1995 and 2011. Overall the arboreal community dynamics were poorly associated with landscape features. A strong relation of the variables was only found between the exotic and pioneer/early-successional species mortality and recruitment and the size and the amount of forest patches within the landscapes. These results indicate that to be effective conservation planning must tackled edge effects and incorporate the landscape context otherwise they will fail for the maintenance of the future of forest patches.

High dimensional space-time datasets are available nowadays in various aspects of life such as economy, agriculture, health, environment, etc. Meanwhile, it is challenging to reveal possible connections between climate change and weather extreme events such as hurricanes or tornadoes. In particular, the relationship between tornado occurrence and climate change has remained elusive. Moreover, modeling multivariate spatio-temporal data is computationally expensive. There is great need to computationally feasible models that account for temporal, spatial, and inter-variables dependence. Our research focuses on those areas in two ways. First, we investigate connections between changes in tornado risk and the increase in atmospheric instability over Oklahoma. Second, we propose two multiscale spatio-temporal models, one for multivariate Gaussian data, and the other for matrix-variate Gaussian data. Those frameworks are novel additions to the existing literature on Bayesian multiscale models. In addition, we have proposed parallelizable MCMC algorithms to sample from the posterior distributions of the model parameters with enhanced computations. / Doctor of Philosophy / Over 1000 tornadoes are reported every year in the United States causing massive losses in lives and possessions according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Therefore, it is worthy to investigate possible connections between climate change and tornado occurrence. However, there are massive environmental datasets in three or four dimensions (2 or 3 dimensional space, and time), and the relationship between tornado occurrence and climate change has remained elusive. Moreover, it is computationally expensive to analyze those high dimensional space-time datasets. In part of our research, we have found a significant relationship between occurrence of strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and meteorological variables. Some of those meteorological variables have been affected by ozone depletion and emissions of greenhouse gases. Additionally, we propose two Bayesian frameworks to analyze multivariate space-time datasets with fast and feasible computations. Finally, our analyses indicate different patterns of temperatures at atmospheric altitudes with distinctive rates over the United States.

Cette thèse porte sur le problème de l'estimation des temps de parcours, de véhicules, par section de route dans un contexte urbain, en utilisant les données GPS à faible densité d’échantillon. L'un des défis de cette thèse est d'utiliser ce genre de données. Dans le cadre de ce travail de recherche, j'ai développé une carte numérique avec son nouveau système d'information géographique (SIG), qui traite la problématique du map-matching, où nous avons apporté des améliorations, ainsi que le problème du plus court chemin.La thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre du projet PUMAS (Plate-forme Urbaine de Mobilité Avancée et Soutenable), ce qui est un avantage pour nos recherches en ce qui concerne le processus de collecte de données réelles sur le terrain ainsi que pour faire nos tests. Le projet PUMAS est un projet préindustriel qui a pour objectif d'informer sur la situation du trafic mais également de développer et de mettre en œuvre une plate-forme de mobilité durable afin de l'évaluer dans la région, notamment à Rouen, France. Le résultat offre un cadre pour tout contrôleur de la situation, gestionnaire ou chercheur pour accéder à de vastes réserves de données sur l'estimation du flux du trafic, sur les prévisions et sur l'état du trafic. / This dissertation is concerned with the problem of estimating travel time per links in urban context using sparsely sampled GPS data. One of the challenges in this thesis is use the sparsely sampled data. A part of this research work, i developed a digital map with its new geographic information system (GIS), dealing with map-matching problem, where we come out with an enhancement tecnique, and also the shortest path problem.The thesis research work was conduct within the project PUMAS, which is an avantage for our research regarding the collection process of our data from the real world field and also in making our tests. The project PUMAS (Plate-forme Urbaine de Mobilité Avancée et Soutenable / Urban Platform for Sustainable and Advanced Mobility) is a preindustrial project that has the objective to inform about the traffic situation and also to develop an implement a platform for sustainable mobility in order to evaluate it in the region, specifically Rouen, France. The result is a framework for any traffic controller or manager and also estimation researcher to access vast stores of data about the traffic estimation, forecasting and status.

Cette thèse propose l’analyse spatio-temporelle d’un mouvement scientifique au moyen d’une théorie sociologique (Frickel, Gross, 2005), complétée par une approche d’analyse spatiale, combinaison qui fait l’originalité de ce travail. La géographie théorique et quantitative européenne francophone, dont l’évolution temporelle et la configuration spatiale restaient très mal connues, en est l’objet. Elle permet de mettre en perspective les rares auto-analyses qui y sont consacrées. Deux grands types de matériaux sont mobilisés : archivistique (Répertoire des géographes, revues ou listes de communications à des colloques spécialisés) et mémoriel (sur la base de 58 entretiens semi-directifs). L’analyse de ces corpus combine des méthodes quantitatives (de la théorie des graphes à l’analyse de la spécialisation des unités géographiques) et qualitatives (analyse thématique et sémantique des corpus et des entretiens des acteurs). Cette investigation a permis de proposer une périodisation du mouvement, articulée autour de trois grands moments : 1. l’émergence, de 1971-72 à 1984, impliquant un faible nombre d’acteurs et de lieux, moment où des chercheurs isolés entrent en interaction, 2. l’âge d’or, de 1985 à la fin des années 1990, marqué par l’existence d’un collectif structuré, reposant sur de nombreuses interactions entre les lieux européens francophones, qui se reproduit et essaime, 3. la généralisation du cœur de connaissances qui s’accompagne d’un déclin de l’identification au mouvement, des années 2000 à nos jours, selon de nombreuses reconfigurations, voyant la disparition de certains pôles historiques. / The aim of this thesis is to implement a spatio-temporal analysis of a scientific movement based on a sociological theory (Frickel, Gross, 2005), combined with spatial analysis. This combination constitutes the major contribution of the present work. For this analysis, the author has chosen as a subject the European French-speaking theoretical and quantitative geography, whose temporal evolution and spatial configuration remained largely unknown until now. The thesis uses two main kinds of materials: archival (Répertoire des géographes, journals, lists of communications of TQG colloquium) and memorial with 58 semi-structured interviews collected from a sample of actors of the movement. The analysis of the corpus combines quantitative methods (from graph theory to the analysis of geographical units’ specialization), and qualitative ones (thematic and semantic analysis of the corpus and interviews of actors). This investigation has allowed us to propose a periodization of the movement since its beginnings in the 1960’s organized around three main periods: 1. the emergence, from 1971-72 to 1984, involving a small number of actors and locations, and while individual researchers interact in order to give themselves a self training, 2. the Golden Age, from 1985 to the end of the 1990’s, marked by the formation of organized groups based on many interactions between French-speaking places in Europe, self reproducing and spreading. 3. The generalization of the knowledge core which is accompanied by a decline in identification with the movement, from the 2000’s to the present, according to many reconfigurations including the disappearance of certain historical centres.

Os veículos que compõem o tráfego urbano são considerados como o principal agente causador de poluição afetando diretamente a qualidade do ar nas cidades, sendo um desafio ter mecanismos de monitoramento que possibilitem uma visão geral das condições ambientais. Para proporcionar uma visão abrangente seria necessário um grande número de estações fixas de monitoramento da qualidade do ar, além de um incremento constante para acompanhar o crescimento da cidade. Neste cenário, surge a oportunidade de instrumentação de ônibus coletivo com sensores que medem a qualidade do ar durante seu trajeto, assim aproveitando as características de mobilidade do transporte público, o qual transita em áreas povoadas, com postura dinâmica de crescimento, adaptando-se de forma coerente à mutabilidade populacional e geográfica da cidade. A presente tese apresenta novas formas de realizar análises espaçotemporais da qualidade do ar de regiões urbanas. Os modelos cartográficos criados permitem analisar regiões mapeadas usando perspectivas espaciais e temporais com informações obtidas de kits sensores móveis, para análises a cada 100 metros, promovendo uma resolução maior que os modelos tradicionais de monitoramento (escala quilométrica), os quais ainda não oferecem esta possibilidade. Esta maior resolução permite uma nova perspectiva de análises de microrregiões e, desta forma, permite que os especialista ou gestores urbanos possam entender melhor as situações, ao utilizarem as ferramentas e recursos apresentados pela presente tese. Para atingir os objetivos optou-se pela criação e validação de um kit sensor para ser hospedado em ônibus coletivo, o qual foi validado e testado, quanto à sua eficiência de medição. Este kit foi integrado a uma plataforma computacional construída para extrair e processar informações com algoritmos matemáticos. Todos os componentes da plataforma foram legitimados com experimentos que confirmaram as hipóteses inicialmente formuladas para validação. E por fim, mapeamentos com mais de 70 mil pontos foram utilizados na criação de modelos espaçotemporais para realização de estudo de caso de regiões da cidade de São Paulo, os quais demostraram os usos potenciais das proposições desta tese. / The vehicles in urban traffic are considered as the main cause of urban pollution with a direct impact on air quality, being a challenge to have monitoring tools that enable an overview of the environmental conditions influenced by vehicle emissions. One option is to instrument the entire city with low-cost fixed sensors to collect environmental data; however, to provide a comprehensive view would require a large number of sensors, and a constant increase to follow the growth of the city. In this scenario, arises the opportunity for urban bus instrumentation with sensors that measure the environmental pollution, to take advantage of the mobility characteristics of public transport, which moves in populated areas, with dynamic attitude of growth, adapting in a coherent way to population and geographic variability of the city. This PhD Thesis proposes the monitoring of air quality inside urban roads by Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), hosted on city buses. Thus, new ways of performing spatiotemporal analyzes of the air quality of urban regions are possible with the cartographic models created by this thesis. These allow to analyze mapped regions using spatial and temporal perspectives with information obtained from mobile sensor kits, for analyzes every 100 meters, promoting a resolution higher than the traditional monitoring models (kilometer scale), which still do not offer this possibility. This higher resolution allows a new perspective of analyzes of micro regions and, in this way, allows specialists or urban managers to have a better understanding of the urban scenario. Sensor kits are created to be hosted by bus, which has been validated and tested for its efficiency in measurement. This was integrated into a computational platform built to extract and process information with mathematical algorithms. All the components of the platform were validated with experiments that confirmed the hypotheses originally formulated for validation. Finally, mappings with more than 70,000 points were used in the creation of spatiotemporal models for the study of the case of regions of the city of São Paulo, which denoted the potentials constructed by this thesis.

Os veículos que compõem o tráfego urbano são considerados como o principal agente causador de poluição afetando diretamente a qualidade do ar nas cidades, sendo um desafio ter mecanismos de monitoramento que possibilitem uma visão geral das condições ambientais. Para proporcionar uma visão abrangente seria necessário um grande número de estações fixas de monitoramento da qualidade do ar, além de um incremento constante para acompanhar o crescimento da cidade. Neste cenário, surge a oportunidade de instrumentação de ônibus coletivo com sensores que medem a qualidade do ar durante seu trajeto, assim aproveitando as características de mobilidade do transporte público, o qual transita em áreas povoadas, com postura dinâmica de crescimento, adaptando-se de forma coerente à mutabilidade populacional e geográfica da cidade. A presente tese apresenta novas formas de realizar análises espaçotemporais da qualidade do ar de regiões urbanas. Os modelos cartográficos criados permitem analisar regiões mapeadas usando perspectivas espaciais e temporais com informações obtidas de kits sensores móveis, para análises a cada 100 metros, promovendo uma resolução maior que os modelos tradicionais de monitoramento (escala quilométrica), os quais ainda não oferecem esta possibilidade. Esta maior resolução permite uma nova perspectiva de análises de microrregiões e, desta forma, permite que os especialista ou gestores urbanos possam entender melhor as situações, ao utilizarem as ferramentas e recursos apresentados pela presente tese. Para atingir os objetivos optou-se pela criação e validação de um kit sensor para ser hospedado em ônibus coletivo, o qual foi validado e testado, quanto à sua eficiência de medição. Este kit foi integrado a uma plataforma computacional construída para extrair e processar informações com algoritmos matemáticos. Todos os componentes da plataforma foram legitimados com experimentos que confirmaram as hipóteses inicialmente formuladas para validação. E por fim, mapeamentos com mais de 70 mil pontos foram utilizados na criação de modelos espaçotemporais para realização de estudo de caso de regiões da cidade de São Paulo, os quais demostraram os usos potenciais das proposições desta tese. / The vehicles in urban traffic are considered as the main cause of urban pollution with a direct impact on air quality, being a challenge to have monitoring tools that enable an overview of the environmental conditions influenced by vehicle emissions. One option is to instrument the entire city with low-cost fixed sensors to collect environmental data; however, to provide a comprehensive view would require a large number of sensors, and a constant increase to follow the growth of the city. In this scenario, arises the opportunity for urban bus instrumentation with sensors that measure the environmental pollution, to take advantage of the mobility characteristics of public transport, which moves in populated areas, with dynamic attitude of growth, adapting in a coherent way to population and geographic variability of the city. This PhD Thesis proposes the monitoring of air quality inside urban roads by Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), hosted on city buses. Thus, new ways of performing spatiotemporal analyzes of the air quality of urban regions are possible with the cartographic models created by this thesis. These allow to analyze mapped regions using spatial and temporal perspectives with information obtained from mobile sensor kits, for analyzes every 100 meters, promoting a resolution higher than the traditional monitoring models (kilometer scale), which still do not offer this possibility. This higher resolution allows a new perspective of analyzes of micro regions and, in this way, allows specialists or urban managers to have a better understanding of the urban scenario. Sensor kits are created to be hosted by bus, which has been validated and tested for its efficiency in measurement. This was integrated into a computational platform built to extract and process information with mathematical algorithms. All the components of the platform were validated with experiments that confirmed the hypotheses originally formulated for validation. Finally, mappings with more than 70,000 points were used in the creation of spatiotemporal models for the study of the case of regions of the city of São Paulo, which denoted the potentials constructed by this thesis.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’instruire l’organisation des successions culturales, à l’échelle de la France et sur un recul décennal, tant en terme de cinétiques localisées qu’en terme de dynamiques liées à des variables explicatives du milieu physique et socio-technico-économiques. Ce travail de « fouille de données » est appliqué en France métropolitaine, en utilisant les bases de données publiques disponibles. Notre étude couvre la période 1992-2003 où s’implémenta la réforme de 1992 de la Politique Agricole Commune européenne et l’agenda 2000 en France. A partir d’une fouille de données sur l’ensemble des points Terruti sur cette période, 2549 successions culturales de trois ans furent identifiées. Ensuite, 21 clusters de l’ensemble des 430 régions agricoles (RA) françaises, quatre systèmes de culture, 90 RA, parangons des 430 RA, et trois régions principales appartenant à cinq des 21 clusters, regroupant les cultures de céréales, oléagineux et protéagineux, ont été définis. Deux approches de cinétiques des successions ont été réalisées : Une étude envisageant les successions de culture qui suivent les retournements de prairies permanentes. Une recherche des dynamiques d’évolution de successions culturales en lien avec des conditions externes. Nous proposons une utilisation ultérieure des méthodes mobilisées qui ont montré leur capacité à cartographier les grandes tendances d’évolution en France et à identifier les principales variables explicatives de ces évolutions. Les apports de cette thèse contribuent à améliorer notre compréhension des processus qui organisent les successions culturales en France et construisent par ces pratiques agricoles très dynamiques des impacts forts sur le territoire agricole français / In the context of changing agricultural policy, the development of agricultural production systems, increasing concern for agricultural sustainability and shifts in agricultural land management practice-related land-use change, the main objective of this thesis was to mine crop sequence patterns (CSP) and the relationships between CSP and the biophysical and socio-technical-economic conditions in mainland France from historical census data (e.g. land-cover survey, agricultural censuses, population census). Our study period 1992-2003 covers the implementation period of the 1992 European Union Common Agricultural Policy reform and Agenda 2000 in France. Both the classical statistical and data mining technique were applied in alone or combined ways in this thesis. First, we proposed an innovative approach to representing CSP within a given area and period at a large regional scale in a stationary way. The 2549 3-year crop sequences (CSs) were first identified as major CSs within all 430 agricultural districts (ADs) in mainland France during this period. Next, 21 clusters of ADs , four types of cropping systems, 90 representative ADs and three principal planting zones of cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops belonging to five clusters identified previously were further defined. We then explored CSP in a dynamic way by investigating CSP after grassland-to-cropland conversion, the temporal variability of CSP, and the evolution of the relationships between CSP and the external conditions over the study period. We conclude that the approaches developed here permit the representation of CSP at the large regional scale in both stationary and dynamic ways using time series land-cover data denoting specific agricultural cover types. The findings of this thesis contribute to improving the understanding of the process and pattern of human land management practices by agriculture affecting the terrestrial biosphere

No description available.