The Swedish Armed Forces setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) has problems to forecast low clouds in stably stratified conditions when the ground is covered by snow. The aim of this thesis is to understand what causes this deficit. Simulations during January and February 2018 are here compared with observations from Sodankylä in northern Finland. It is revealed that neither type of planetary boundary layer parameterization chosen nor vertical or horizontal interpolation are responsible for the deficiency. Instead, our experiments show that, to first order, poor initialization of Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds from the host model, Atmospheric Model High Resolution (HRES), of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) is the missing link. In situations when Sc clouds are missing in the IFS analysis, although they exist in reality, we use information from vertical soundings from Sodankylä. In the initialization process we used the fact that liquid potential temperature is constant in a well-mixed cloud. Initializing cloud water and cloud ice from IFS HRES and from soundings with different methods improves the model performance and the formation of very low artificial clouds at the first model level is prohibited.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The focus of the present thesis is the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer, under very stable conditions. In such situation, the turbulence production by the vertical wind shear may have similar magnitude to the total turbulence destruction by the thermal stratification and molecular dissipation terms. Besides being in near balance, the turbulence production and destruction are, each of them, functions of the turbulence intensity itself. This condition causes situations on which the system behaves on a manner different than that expected from each of its parts individually. Such processes are characterized, in the present study, as paths to complexity, and are analyzed separately in the different chapters that compose the thesis. In chapter 2, the coupling state between the surface and the top of the stable boundary layer (SBL) is investigated using four different schemes to represent the turbulent exchange. An idealized SBL is assumed, with fixed wind speed and temperature at its top. The formulations compared are those that solve a prognostic equation for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and those that directly prescribe turbulence intensity as a function of atmospheric stability. The formulation influence on the coupling state is analyzed and it is concluded that, in general, the simple TKE formulation has a better response, although it also tends to overestimate turbulent mixing. The consequences are discussed. In chapter 3, a simplified new model for the exchange between the surface and the atmosphere under stable conditions is proposed. Its main difference from previous works consists in the fact that the turbulent intensity is determined by a prognostic equation for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), rather than by using stability functions that arbitrarily relate it to atmospheric stability. Its main novelty is the fact that, when multiple atmospheric levels are considered, it leads to complex solutions, characterizing the occurrence of the phenomenon known as global intermittency. The vertical structure of the intermittent events is analyzed, and it shown that they are generated at the surface by a local shear increase above a threshold, propagating upward through the turbulence transfer term in the TKE equation. It is proposed that such events constitute a natural characteristic of the disconnected SBL, which occurs along with low large-scale winds and clear skies. Chapter 4 is devoted to the purpose of showing that the use of stability functions that represent the turbulence intensity as its average dependence on atmospheric stability reduces the number of degrees of freedom of the system, precluding it from reaching complex solutions. Finally, in chapter 5, a detailed system dynamics analysis is applied to the model proposed in chapter 3, with the aim of identifying whether it is or not chaotic. It is shown that the system bifurcates as the wind speed at the SBL top increases, reaching period 3 for a range of situations, a sufficient condition for chaos existence. Furthermore, positive Lyapunov exponents are found, again confirming the chaotic character of the system. It is shown that the complexity arises from the nonlinear interactions between the different vertical levels considered, through the vertical turbulence transport terms. / O foco da presente tese é a camada limite atmosférica noturna, sob condições estáveis. Nesta situação, a produção de turbulência pelo cisalhamento vertical do vento pode ter magnitude similar à destruição total de turbulência devido à estratificação térmica e a dissipação molecular. Além de serem próximos no balanço, a produção de turbulência e a destruição são, cada um deles, funções da intensidade turbulenta. Esta condição causa situações nas quais o sistema se comporta de maneira diferente do que o esperado para cada uma de suas partes individualmente. Tais processos são caracterizados, no presente estudo, como caminhos para a complexidade, e são analisados separadamente em diferentes capítulos que compôem a tese. No capítulo 2, o estado de acoplamento entre a superfície e o topo da camada limite estável (CLE) é investigado usando 4 diferentes esquemas para representar a intensidade turbulenta. Uma CLE idealizada é assumida, com velocidade do vento e temperatura fixas no seu topo. As formulações comparadas são aquelas que resolvem uma equação prognóstica para a energia cinética turbulenta (ECT) e as que prescrevem diretamente a intensidade turbulenta como uma função da estabilidade atmosférica. A influência da formulação no estado de acoplamento é analisada e é concluído que, em geral, a formulação simples de ECT tem a melhor resposta, embora esta tenda a superestimar a mistura turbulenta. As consequências são discutidas. No capítulo 3, um novo modelo simplificado para interação entre a superfície e a atmosfera em condições estáveis é proposto. A principal diferença com relação a estudos anteriores, consiste no fato que a intensidade turbulenta é determinada por uma equação prognóstica para a ECT, ao invés de usar funções de estabilidade que são arbitráriamente relacionadas com a estabilidade atmosférica. A principal novidade é o fato que, quando multipos níveis atmosféricos são considerados, este apresenta soluções complexas, caracterizando a ocorrência do fenômeno conhecido como intermitência global. A estrutura vertical dos eventos intermitentes é analisada, e esta mostra que os eventos são gerados na superfície pelo aumento local do cisalhamento acima de uma fronteira, propagando-se para cima através do termo de transporte turbulento na equação da ECT. É proposto que tais eventos constituam uma característica natural da CLE desconectada, a qual ocorre em condições de ventos de grande escala fracos e com céu claro. O capítulo 4 tem como propósito mostrar que o uso de funções de estabilidade que representam a intensidade da turbulência como a dependência média desta com a estabilidade atmosférica, reduz os graus de liberdade do sistema, assim evitando que este encontre soluções complexas. Finalmente, no capítulo 5, uma análise dinâmica detalhada é aplicada no modelo proposto no capítulo 3, com meta de identificar se este é caótico ou não. É mostrado que as soluções do sistema bifurcam-se com o aumento da velocidade do vento no topo da CLE, encontrando soluções com período 3 para um intervalo de situações, uma condição suficiente para a existência de caos. Além disso, expoentes de Lyapunov positivos são encontrados, novamente confirmando o caráter caótico do sistema. É mostrado que a complexidade surge através de interações não lineares entre os diferentes níveis verticais considerados, através do termo de transporte vertical de turbulência.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present study aims to evaluate the quality of nocturnal temperature forecast made by a mesoscale numerical model and to understand the reasons behind the difficulties found. To do that, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used, with the same configuration employed for operational weather forecast. The model has been ran for the 31 nights of July 2012, and temperature outputs have been compared to hourly observations measured by 26 weather stations scattered over the entire state of Rio Grande do Sul. Four different schemes for turbulence have been considered. Three of them, Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) and Bougeault-Lacarrere (BOU) are formulations available from WRF code, while the fourth, Bougeault-Lacarrere Modified (BOU-Mod) is a change made to BOU, aiming at making it less turbulent. A general analysis shows that the different formulations present similar root mean squared errors (EQM), with YSU showing slightly smaller errors than the others. An important discrepancy found refers to the fact that there is an appreciable difference between station real altitude and its altitude in the model, which is given by the height of the closest grid point. When such an altitude difference is corrected by a potential temperature, the errors are enhanced. In this case, the most turbulent formulations, YSU and BOU, tend to overestimate nocturnal temperatures, while the least turbulent ones, MYJ and BOU-Mod, tend to underestimate it. All schemes presented a tendency to underestimate the observed temporal variability. It means that they tend to overestimate the coldest observations and to underestimate the warmest ones. In the most stable nights, all parameterizations showed large EQM and overestimate the temperature. In the least stable nights there were some cases with reduced EQM, but all formulations tended to underestimate temperature, showing that it is necessary to increase the turbulent mixing in this cases. When the different stations are compared, it becomes evident that the height difference between station and model altitudes has a large influence in the nighttime temperature weather forecast. It happens mainly because stations lower than the nearest grid point the modeled winds tend to be larger than observed, causing more intense turbulent mixing and leading to warmer temperatures. The opposite happens in stations higher than the grid point. Such a situation occurs mainly in the more stable conditions, when the lower regions tend to have its surface decoupling from the higher atmospheric levels. The implications of these results and suggestions for improving nocturnal temperature forecasts are presented. / O objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar a qualidade da previsão de temperaturas noturnas em um modelo numérico de mesoescala e compreender a razão das principais dificuldades encontradas. Para tanto, é utilizado o modelo Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), configurado da mesma maneira que é feito em previsões do tempo operacionais. O modelo foi rodado para as 31 noites do mês de Julho de 2012, e as saídas de temperatura foram comparadas com observações horárias feitas em 26 estações espalhadas por todo o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Foram consideradas quatro representações diferentes para a turbulência no modelo, sendo que três delas, as de Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) e Bougeault-Lacarrere (BOU), são formulações disponibilizadas no próprio modelo e uma quarta, Bougeault-Lacarrere-Modificada (BOU-Mod), é uma alteração imposta à parametrização BOU com o propósito de torná-la menos turbulenta. Uma análise geral mostra que as formulações apresentam erros quadráticos médios (EQM) bastante próximos entre si, sendo que YSU tem erros levemente menores que as demais. Uma importante discrepância observada é que há diferença razoável entre a altura real da estação e a sua altitude no modelo, representada pelo valor do ponto de grade mais próximo. Quando essa diferença de altitude é corrigida pela temperatura potencial, os erros aumentam. Nesse caso, as duas parametrizações mais turbulentas, que são YSU e BOU, têm tendência geral de superestimar as temperaturas noturnas, enquanto as menos turbulentas, MYJ e BOU-Mod, tendem a subestimar essa grandeza. Todos os esquemas mostraram tendência de reduzir a variabilidade temporal observada, o que significa que elas tendem a superestimar as observações mais frias e subestimar as mais quentes. Nas noites mais estáveis, todas parametrizações apresentaram grande EQM e superestimam a temperatura. Nas noites menos estáveis houve casos com EQM reduzido, mas todas as parametrizações mostraram tendência de subestimar a temperatura observada, mostrando que é necessário que todas as formulações se tornem mais turbulentas nestes casos. Quando as diferentes estações são comparadas, a diferença de altura entre a estação e o ponto de grade mais próximo tem grande influência na previsão de temperatura noturna. Isso ocorre porque nas estações mais baixas que o ponto de grade, o vento do modelo tende a ser maior que o observado, causando maior mistura turbulenta, e levando a temperaturas maiores. O oposto ocorre nas estações mais altas que o ponto de grade. Esta situação ocorre principalmente nas noites mais estáveis, quando estações localizadas em regiões mais baixas tendem a experimentar o fenômeno do desacoplamento entre a superfície e os níveis mais altos da atmosfera. As implicações destes resultados são discutidas e propostas para melhorar as previsões noturnas de temperatura são apresentadas.

La surface enneigée du continent Antarctique, sauf pour quelques heures les après-midi d'été, se refroidit constamment radiativement. Il en résulte une stratification stable persistante de la couche limite atmosphérique qui alimente un écoulement catabatique le long des pentes qui descendent du plateau vers l'océan. Les inversions de températures et les vitesses de vents associées sont extrêmes l'hiver où une inversion moyenne de 25°C sur le plateau et des vitesses dépassant les 200 km/h sur la côte sont régulièrement observées. L'été, les inversions restent très marquées la nuit, mais le réchauffement de la surface par le soleil conduit au développement de couches convectives l'après midi. Des replats et des pentes immenses et vides, inlassablement recouverts de neige : l'Antarctique est un laboratoire unique pour étudier les transitions entre les régimes turbulents, et surtout la turbulence dans les couches limites stables et catabatiques. Des processus délicats à étudier, puisque très sensibles aux hétérogénéités de la surface. Ce travail de thèse documente trois cas d'école estivaux typiques : le cycle diurne sur le plateau Antarctique, la génération d'un écoulement catabatique local, et la couche limite soumise à un forçage catabatique. Ces trois situations ont été explorées avec des observations in-situ. Pour deux d'entre elles, les observations ont nourri et ont été complétées par des simulations avec le modèle atmosphérique Méso-NH. Le premier cas s'intéresse au cycle diurne au Dôme~C. Le Dôme~C, sur le plateau Antarctique est une zone plate et homogène éloignée des perturbations océaniques. Depuis quelques années, une tour de 45 m échantillonne la couche limite. L'été, un cycle diurne marqué est observé en température et en vent avec un jet de basse couche surgéostrophique la nuit. Une période de deux jours, représentative du reste de l'été, a été sélectionnée, pour la construction du cas d'intercomparaison GABLS4, préparé en collaboration avec Météo-France. Les simulations uni-colonnes menées avec le modèle Méso-NH ont montré la nécessité d'adapter le schéma de turbulence afin qu'il puisse reproduire à la fois les inversions de température et l'intensité de la turbulence mesurées. Le deuxième cas d'école examine un écoulement catabatique généré localement, au coucher du soleil, observé sur une pente de 600 par 300 m en Terre Adélie. Certaines caractéristiques de la turbulence, en particulier l'anisotropie, ont été explorées à l'aide de simulations à fine échelle (LES). Le troisième cas s'intéresse à la couche limite mélangée typique des zones côtières soumises à un vent intense. Ce vent d'origine catabatique, a dévalé les 1000 km de pente en amont. En remobilisant la neige, il interagit avec le mélange turbulent. Le travail s'est intéressé dans ce troisième cas à l'impact du transport de neige sur l'humidité de l'air et au calcul des flux turbulents à partir des profils de température, vent et humidité. / Except during a few summer afternoon hours, the snow-covered surface of Antarctica is constantly cooling because of radiative processes. This results in a stable, persisting stratification of the atmospheric boundary layer that feeds katabatic winds along the slopes descending from the Plateau to the Ocean. Temperature inversions and wind speeds both peak during the winter, with inversions regularly reaching 25 degrees (C) over the Plateau and winds exceeding 200,km/h along the coast. In the summer, significant inversions remain at night but solar heating leads to the formation of convective layers near the surface in the afternoon. With berms and large, empty slopes constantly covered with snow, Antarctica is a unique and perfect laboratory for the study of transitions between turbulent regimes and of the turbulence within stable and katabatic boundary layers. The investigation of these processes is usually made difficult by their sensitivity to heterogeneities at the surface. This thesis work documents three typical "text-book" summer cases: the diurnal cycle on the Antarctic Plateau, the generation of a local katabatic wind and the katabatic forcing of the boundary layer. The investigation of these three cases uses in-situ data. For two of these cases, the observational data has fed and been completed with some Meso-NH model simulation outputs. The first case focusses on the diurnal cycle at Dome C. On the Antarctic Plateau, Dome C is a flat, homogeneous area far from oceanic perturbations. Since a few years, a 45 meters tower samples the boundary layer there. In the summer, the diurnal cycle there is characterized by clean signals in both temperature and winds, with a nocturnal low-level jet within the boundary layer. A two-days data set representative of the rest of the summer has been selected for analysis and is used in the GABLS4 comparison study prepared in collaboration with Meteo France. Single-column simulations have been run for this comparison work launched in June. The second case examines a local katabatic flow generated at sunset over a 600 by 300 meters slope in Terre Adelie. Characteristics of the turbulence of this flow, in particular, its anisotropy, are investigated using small-scale model simulations. A measuring station has been deployed in order to prepare and evaluate these simulations. The third case is concerned with boundary layers typical of coastal areas with strong winds of katabatic origins, which have flown over 1000 km-long slopes towards the sea. By moving around the snow at the surface, these winds interact with turbulent mixing processes. For this final case, the work is interested in the impact of blowing snow on atmospheric moisture and with the calculation of turbulent fluxes based on temperature, wind and humidity profiles.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this study is to analyze the vertical structure of the intermittent turbulent events in the very stable boundary layer, as well the analysis and characterization of events originated near the surface that propagate upward. Therefore, it was used observational data from the FLOSSII experiment, together with the results of simulations using a numerical model that is able to reproduce the occurrence of turbulence bursts in the very stable boundary layer. The data have a total of 108 nights, from 20th of November 2002 to 02nd of April 2003, held in North Park south of Walden in the state of Colorado, in the United States. The experimental analysis showed that most of the events generated in the surface are very weak, not being able to connect the surface with the highest levels of the tower. Consistent with other studies, it was observed that the occurrence of events that propagates downward cause an increase in temperature, while events which propagate upward cause a cooling of the air near the surface. Another important result is much of the observed events that propagate upward are generated by wind acceleration due to drainge. Finally, it is shown that the events reproduced by the numerical model are caused by the shear increased and they are transported vertically by turbulent transport of energy, as observed in real world. / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a estrutura vertical de eventos de intermitência global na camada limite muito estável. A análise e caracterização feita foca, principalmente, nos eventos gerados em superfície que se propagam para cima. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados observacionais do experimento FLOSSII, juntamente com o resultado de simulações, utilizando um modelo numérico capaz de simular a ocorrência de intermitência na camada limite muito estável. Os dados possuem um total de 108 noites, no período de 20 de Novembro de 2002 a 02 de Abril de 2003, realizado em North Park ao sul de Walden, no estado do Colorado, nos Estados Unidos. As análises experimentais mostraram que a maior parte dos eventos gerados em superfície são muito fracos, não sendo capazes de conectar a superfície com os níveis mais altos da torre. Em concordância com outros trabalhos, foi observado que a ocorrência de eventos que se propagam para baixo causam aumento na temperatura, enquanto que eventos que se propagam para cima causam o resfriamento da atmosfera próxima à superfície. Outro resultado importante é que grande parte dos eventos observados, que se propagam para cima, são gerados pela aceleração do vento devido à presença de drenagem no escoamento. Finalmente, é mostrado que os eventos reproduzidos pelo modelo numérico são originados pelo aumento do cisalhamento e são transportados verticalmente pelo transporte turbulento de energia, assim como observado no mundo real.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_rodrigo_lovato_paginas_pre_e_pos_textuais.pdf: 119173 bytes, checksum: e57cbc1af9ef2f4d32dabdf2e4714175 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-02-28 / Neste trabalho, nós estimamos a constante de Kolmogorov, C01 através da determinação de um conjunto de trajetórias Lagrangeanas em uma Camada Limite Estável simulada pelo modelo de simulação dos grandes turbilhões (Large-Eddy Simulation model). A partir do conjunto de trajetórias, a forma da função de estrutura da velocidade Lagrangeana no subintervalo inercial é avaliada, permitindo a determinação de C0. O valor de C0 encontrado é 3,70.

The present work combines experimental and numerical analyses to improve current understanding of turbulence in stably stratified flows. An extensive literature review is presented on the mechanisms governing turbulence under stratified conditions, with a special focus on the Richardson number parameter, as it is often adopted as a switch to turn turbulence modelling on/off. Anisotropization of turbulence is investigated, as it is found to be an important mechanism for turbulence survival at any Richardson number, but usually overlooked in turbulence parameterizations. For this purpose, an experimental dataset previously collected over an Alpine glacier is used, with a focus on the anisotropy of the Reynolds stress tensor, as the scientific community has recently shown improvements in the description of the atmospheric surface layer by taking this aspect into account. Different sources leading stresses to deviate from the isotropic limit are explored, as well as energy exchanges across scales and between kinetic and potential reservoirs, in order to identify the main processes that should be included in turbulence parameterizations to properly represent anisotropic turbulence under stable conditions. High-resolution numerical simulations are then performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate different PBL parameterizations in reproducing specific stable atmospheric conditions developing over complex terrain, and their influence on the local circulation. For this purpose, two wintertime case studies in a basin-like area of an Alpine valley are investigated. Both are fair-weather episodes with weak synoptic forcing and well-developed diurnal local circulations, differing by the thermal stratification in the basin. In particular, the influence of thermal stratification on the outbreak of a valley-exit wind coming from a tributary valley is investigated, and the influence of such type of flows on turbulence anisotropy in stably stratified conditions is discussed for future investigations.

Cette thèse est dédiée à la caractérisation des vents descendants de vallée en terrain complexe d'orographie modérée à moyenne latitude, dans le contexte de la réglementation des rejets atmosphériques de Cadarache. Cadarache est un des centres de recherche du "Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives" (CEA), installé dans une petite vallée (CV) confluente à la vallée de la Durance (DV). Ces deux vallées se distinguent par leur taille, et sont le siège d'écoulements aux caractéristiques différentes en stratification stable. Un forçage synoptique faible associé à un ciel dégagé sont dans la région des conditions fréquentes qui favorisent la stabilité atmosphérique et consécutivement la mauvaise dispersion des polluants, faisant de cette situation un sujet d'intérêt majeur. La campagne de mesure KASCADE (KAtabatic winds and Stability over CAdarache for Dispersion of Effluents) constitue le volet expérimental de l'étude. Réalisée pendant l'hiver 2013 elle a couvert 3 mois d'observation continue et complétée de 23 périodes d'observation intensive (POI). L'analyse montre que les écoulements descendant les vallées de Cadarache (CDV) et de la Durance (DDV) dominent pendant toute la période d'étude. La stabilité s'installant dès le coucher du soleil, le courant CDV s'épaissit progressivement. Le profil de vent en forme de jet présente son maximum à environ 30 m où il atteint 2 à 3 m s-1. Il se maintient toute la nuit et disparaît avec l'inversion de stabilité. Comme la station météorologique du centre manque de capteur de vent dans la CV même, une méthode a été développée pour diagnostiquer le CDV en exploitant l'instrumentation actuelle. Ainsi, si la prévision de ce vent n'est pas à la portée du modèle méso-échelle WRF avec une résolution kilométrique, cette méthode le permet en combinant une descente d'échelle dynamique et statistique. Le vent DDV est identifié comme un vent qui suit l'axe de la vallée, fortement corrélé à la stabilité à l'échelle régionale car il n'apparaît que la nuit lorsque le forçage synoptique est faible. Ce vent n'arrive à Cadarache que 6 à 9 heures après le coucher du soleil avec une grande variabilité. D'un autre côté, il est à son maximum au lever du soleil avant que les processus convectifs ne démarrent, et présente un jet autour de 200 m avec des vitesses de 4 à 8 m s-1 et dont la hauteur est corrélée à la profondeur de la vallée. Dans les simulations avec WRF, malgré des défauts, la DV étant bien résolue avec une maille de 1 km, l'occurrence de ce vent est assez bien simulée. Par ailleurs l'examen de ses caractéristiques spatiales montre qu'il s'agit soit d'un écoulement de drainage, soit d'un écoulement canalisé forcé. Bien qu'on ne dispose pas de données suffisantes pour élucider le mécanisme dominant de déclenchement du vent DDV, les deux précédemment identifiés sont de bons candidats. / Stable stratification can be one of the most penalizing condition concerning pollutants in the atmospheric boundary layer. Over complex terrain under these conditions, the relief may modify the flow. Therefore the knowledge of down-valley wind characteristics influencing the wind field at Cadarache and its close surroundings is crucial for safety regulation in the context of sanitary impact of the site. Cadarache is a CEA research centre and located in the Prealps of southeast France. It is embedded in a small valley, the Cadarache Valley (CV), which is one of the tributaries of the larger Durance Valley (DV). The two valleys are distinct in size and therefore react differently to stable conditions, and are investigated by means of observations (field experiment KASCADE : KAtabatic winds and Stability over CADarache for Dispersion of Effluents) and simulations (the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model). To investigate the valley wind behaviour, the KASCADE campaign has been designed and conducted in the winter of 2013, covering a 3-month period and 23 intensive observation periods (IOP). It resulted in a well-documented campaign, from which the analysis shows that the Cadarache and Durance down-valley (CDV and DDV respectively) winds are both dominant flows during the period of investigation. The CDV wind is a thermally driven flow, with regular wind speeds up to 2 - 3 m s-1 up to 50 m agl. It persists throughout the night and disappears in the early morning with the stability. The current observational network of Cadarache lacks means of measurement for inside CDV wind. This work shows that it can be nowcasted from available meteorological tower observations. Due to the CV small scale, currently a wind forecast on kilometer resolution is out of reach, but the methodology developed here can be used to forecast the wind through a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling. The DDV wind has been recognized as down-valley oriented, and strongly related to stability at a regional scale, as it exists only after sunset when synoptic forcing is very weak. DDV wind arrival at Cadarache is mostly observed 6 to 9 hours after sunset, but however dominantly present around sunrise, when convectively driven processes are not yet established. Jets are observed mostly at around 200 m agl with wind speeds between 4 and 8 m s-1. Despite some (general) deficiencies of the WRF model, the DDV wind is simulated close to reality thanks to the 1-km resolution allowing a correct representation of the Durance valley orography. The ensemble of 23 simulated IOPs allowed further to characterize the flow in a spatial sense and to recognize drainage and flow channelling as most important candidates for the flow mechanism.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / In this work a single column model is implemented, aiming primarily to simulate the Stable Boundary Layer (SBL). The model is composed of prognostic equations for the potential temperature, specific humidity and the wind components. A prognostic equation for the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is also used. The turbulent fluxes are approximated from diffusion coefficients that are directly proportional to TKE and to the turbulent mixing length, with a adjustable proportionality factor. To estimate the turbulent mixing lengths, four different parametrizations from the literature are considered. First, a stable case in the Arctic is simulated, then the model is adjusted to reproduce previously published Large Eddy Simulations (LES) results for the same case. After the calibration, the model is validated through a comparison with observed nocturnal data, from tethered balloon soundings performed at a deforested area in the Amazon region, in the months of July and October 2001 and November 2003. The temporal evolution of potential temperature and specific humidity vertical profiles are simulated and compared to the observations from 13 different nights. The performance of the different formulations is evaluated through a statistic analysis for all nights. Potential temperature profiles were better represented by the model than specific humidity ones. In spite being able to reproduce different stability conditions, the model represented the most stable nights better. Finally, the model was coupled to a surface energy budget scheme and for these simulations the initial conditions from the night of 28 July 2001 were used. The scheme was used to evaluate how the simulated atmospheric variables depend on the wind intensity at the top of the vertical domain for the different formulations and with or without the energy budget scheme being added. / Neste trabalho é implementado um Modelo de Coluna Simples, com o intuito de simular a Camada Limite Estável (CLE). O modelo é composto por equações prognósticas para a temperatura potencial, umidade específica e para as componentes horizontais do vento, além de uma equação prognóstica para a energia cinética turbulenta (ECT). Os fluxos turbulentos são aproximados por coeficientes de difusão que são diretamente proporcionais à ECT e ao comprimento de mistura turbulenta, de forma que o coeficiente de proporcionalidade é um fator ajustável. Para estimar os comprimentos de mistura turbulentos são utilizadas quatro diferentes parametrizações encontradas na literatura. Primeiramente, é simulado um caso estável no Ártico, sendo o modelo ajustado de forma a produzir resultados próximos aos da Simulação dos Grandes Turbilhões (LES), obtidos por outros autores para o mesmo caso. Realizados os ajustes, o modelo é validado através da comparação com dados noturnos, obtidos por sondagens de balão cativo realizadas em um sítio experimental localizado numa área desmatada da região Amazônica, nos meses de julho e outubro de 2001 e de novembro de 2003. São simulados os perfis verticais de temperatura potencial e de umidade específica e comparados com as observações de 13 diferentes noites. A avaliação do desempenho das diferentes formulações utilizadas é feita através de uma análise estatística, utilizando dados de todas as noites. Observou-se, que os perfis verticais de temperatura potencial foram melhor representados do que os de umidade específica. Embora o modelo tenha sido capaz de reproduzir as diferentes condições de estabilidade, as noites mais estáveis foram melhor simuladas. Finalmente, é acrescentado um esquema que resolve o balanço de energia em superfície ao modelo, sendo utilizadas para este fim as condições iniciais da noite de 28 de julho de 2001. Este esquema foi utilizado para avaliar como as variáveis atmosféricas simuladas dependem da intensidade do vento no topo do domínio vertical, para as diferentes formulações analisadas e com ou sem a utilização do balanço de superfície.

The description of the effects of the wind meandering in the scalar dispersion is a challenging task, since this type of flow represents a physical state characterized by multiple scales. In this study, a Lagrangian stochastic diffusion model is derived to describe the scalar transport during the horizontal wind meandering phenomenon, occurring in a PBL. The model is derived from the linearization of the Langevin equation and employs a heuristic functional form, which represents the autocorrelation functions of the meandering. The new solutions, which describe the longitudinal and lateral wind components, were used to simulate two experiments of contaminants dispersion in low-wind conditions, INEL (USA) and GRAZ (Austria). The results of the comparison indicate that the new model reproduces fairly well the observed concentrations of contaminants and, therefore, satisfactorily describes the enhanced dispersion due to the presence of meandering. / Descrever os efeitos provocados pelo meandro do vento na dispersão de escalares é uma tarefa desafiadora, uma vez que este tipo de escoamento representa um estado físico caracterizado por múltiplas escalas. Neste trabalho, deriva-se um modelo estocátisco Lagrangiano para descrever a dispersão de escalares, na camada limite planetária, durante o fenômeno de meandro do vento horizontal. O modelo é derivado a partir da linearização da equação de Langevin e emprega uma forma funcional heurística, que representa as funções de autocorrelação do meandro. As novas soluções, que descrevem as componentes longitudinais e laterais do vento, foram empregadas para simular dois experimentos de dispersão de contaminantes em condições de vento fraco, INEL (USA) e GRAZ (Áustria). Os resultados das comparações indicam que o novo modelo pode ser usado para reproduzir as concentrações observadas de contaminantes e, portanto descreve de forma satisfatória a difusão reforçada provocada pelo meandro do vento.