archives@tulane.edu / 1 / ZHU ZHANG

This dissertation explores the effect of tax news on national and state-level economic activity. In the first chapter, I explore the effect of tax news on state economic activity. I estimate a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model, which allows us to consider the possibility that unobserved regional factors --such as credit and fiscal conditions-- might be relevant for modelling the dynamic response of aggregate and state-level economic activity. Tax news is identified as a shock to the implicit tax rate, measured by the yield spread between the one year tax-exempt municipal bond and the one-year taxable Treasury bond. My results suggest that an increase in the implicit tax rate raises national output over much of the anticipation period. In addition, anticipated tax increases give rise to expansions in state personal income and employment. I find that the variation in the responsiveness of economic activity across states is mostly explained by differences in industrial composition as well as by some demographic characteristics such as education attainment and median age. In the second chapter, I examine the impact and transmission of the effect of tax news on U.S. economic activity. I find that news related to higher federal income taxes raise the real GDP over the anticipation period. In addition, aggregate and disaggregate industrial production, employment per worker, hours worked per worker and capacity utilization rate respond positively to tax news in the short run. An historical decomposition shows that tax news and federal funds rate shocks have been the main source of fluctuations in real GDP. In particular, tax news associated with legislation in 1986, 1993, and 2001 contributed to the movements in the real GDP. In the third chapter, I investigate whether the effect of tax news shocks differs across periods of recession and expansion. I follow Jorda’s (2005) local projection method to estimate tax news effects on the economy. I find that news about future tax cuts reduces economic activity for about four quarters and has a significant effect on the U.S. economy in the short run. The behavior of output following tax news shocks is similar in both recession and expansion phases of the business cycle and indicates that news about future tax cuts are contractionary. However, the rebound in economic activity four quarters after the news shock is higher in the recessionary phase than in the expansionary phase. Finally, the state dependent model shows that news shocks have a stronger positive impact on consumption expenditures and residential investment in the recession phase than in the expansion phase.

Todo o varejista, ao se estabelecer em um determinado ponto comercial, procura atingir suas metas de crescimento e desenvolvimento do negócio. Para tanto, ele irá verificar, nas diferentes possibilidades do estabelecimento, aquela que se ajustar, mais adequadamente, às suas aspirações e objetivos. Por outro lado, os pontos de venda disponíveis podem ser próprios ou locados, dependendo da disponibilidade de propriedade de cada varejista, bem como da disponibilidade de espaços a serem locados para o exercício da atividade. Nem sempre a propriedade de um ponto é o melhor caminho para o estabelecimento, por conta da adequação ao negócio, acesso, condições de tráfego, dentre outros. No processo de escolha de um ponto por meio de locação, os problemas elencados acima são os mesmos. Mas, nesse caso, o varejista pode selecionar o ponto mais adequado em função das características do negócio e das condições objetivas do local. Entre as possibilidades de escolha do ponto, dependendo do tipo de negócio, os shopping centers podem se configurar como uma solução conveniente para o varejista. E nos shopping centers, atualmente, desenvolvem-se diversas atividades comerciais e de prestação de serviços, que foram se consolidando como sendo ajustadas às necessidades do mercado consumidor e por extensão ao varejo que tenciona atendê-los. Os shopping centers caracterizam-se por cederem espaços às atividades de distribuição de bens e serviços aos consumidores finais, mediante a locação de espaços físicos onde o varejista desenvolverá seu negócio. Esses espaços são cedidos de forma onerosa aos varejistas, que arcam com o chamado custo de ocupação . Esse trabalho visa analisar os modelos existentes de precificação de ativos físicos, como o aluguel do metro quadrado do espaço em shopping centers, verificar, empiricamente de que forma estes valores são determinados, bem como desenvolver um modelo de precificação do valor de locação aplicável às condições do mercado brasileiro. Deve-se destacar que este trabalho pretende trazer uma contribuição à sistematização da bibliografia sobre o assunto precificação de espaços locados para o varejo e dar contribuições teóricas para o referencial de processos de escolha de pontos de venda no varejo, com base em modelos de precificação. / All shop owners, when choosing a location in a commercial site, seek to achieve their targeted growth and the development of their businesses. In doing this, they will choose among the many different location possibilities, selecting the one that they believe will most closely achieve their goals and objectives. On the other hand, the selection of a site location may depend on less than ideal circumstances. The businessman may already be the owner of a retail site, he may not have the financial resources to purchase additional retail sites, or retail sites may not be available in commercial developments. Site ownership is not always the best way to choose the location because of the adequacy of business, accessibility, and traffic conditions, among others. In the selection of a site by location, these types of problems are similar. In this case, however, the retailer can select the more suitable site in relation to the characteristics of the business and the objective conditions of the site. Depending on the type of business, shopping malls can provide a convenient solution to the retailer in site selection. Nowadays shopping malls have developed several commercial and service activities to meet the needs of both the consumers and, by extension, the retailers who intend to serve them. Mall developers locate shopping malls in locations which are conducive to the activities of distribution of goods and services to the final consumers, by means of location of physical spaces where the retailer can develop his business. These spaces are offered to prospective tenants for a payment that covers the cost of occupation. This paper intends to analyze the existing models of pricing for these kinds of physical assets, including the cost per square foot in shopping malls, verify empirically the ways these values are settled, and develop a pricing model to fix this value applicable to Brazilian market conditions. It is important to emphasize that this research project intends to make a contribution to the literature dealing with the issue of retail space location and offer some theoretical contributions to the reference process of choosing a retail site, based upon pricing models.

Todo o varejista, ao se estabelecer em um determinado ponto comercial, procura atingir suas metas de crescimento e desenvolvimento do negócio. Para tanto, ele irá verificar, nas diferentes possibilidades do estabelecimento, aquela que se ajustar, mais adequadamente, às suas aspirações e objetivos. Por outro lado, os pontos de venda disponíveis podem ser próprios ou locados, dependendo da disponibilidade de propriedade de cada varejista, bem como da disponibilidade de espaços a serem locados para o exercício da atividade. Nem sempre a propriedade de um ponto é o melhor caminho para o estabelecimento, por conta da adequação ao negócio, acesso, condições de tráfego, dentre outros. No processo de escolha de um ponto por meio de locação, os problemas elencados acima são os mesmos. Mas, nesse caso, o varejista pode selecionar o ponto mais adequado em função das características do negócio e das condições objetivas do local. Entre as possibilidades de escolha do ponto, dependendo do tipo de negócio, os shopping centers podem se configurar como uma solução conveniente para o varejista. E nos shopping centers, atualmente, desenvolvem-se diversas atividades comerciais e de prestação de serviços, que foram se consolidando como sendo ajustadas às necessidades do mercado consumidor e por extensão ao varejo que tenciona atendê-los. Os shopping centers caracterizam-se por cederem espaços às atividades de distribuição de bens e serviços aos consumidores finais, mediante a locação de espaços físicos onde o varejista desenvolverá seu negócio. Esses espaços são cedidos de forma onerosa aos varejistas, que arcam com o chamado custo de ocupação . Esse trabalho visa analisar os modelos existentes de precificação de ativos físicos, como o aluguel do metro quadrado do espaço em shopping centers, verificar, empiricamente de que forma estes valores são determinados, bem como desenvolver um modelo de precificação do valor de locação aplicável às condições do mercado brasileiro. Deve-se destacar que este trabalho pretende trazer uma contribuição à sistematização da bibliografia sobre o assunto precificação de espaços locados para o varejo e dar contribuições teóricas para o referencial de processos de escolha de pontos de venda no varejo, com base em modelos de precificação. / All shop owners, when choosing a location in a commercial site, seek to achieve their targeted growth and the development of their businesses. In doing this, they will choose among the many different location possibilities, selecting the one that they believe will most closely achieve their goals and objectives. On the other hand, the selection of a site location may depend on less than ideal circumstances. The businessman may already be the owner of a retail site, he may not have the financial resources to purchase additional retail sites, or retail sites may not be available in commercial developments. Site ownership is not always the best way to choose the location because of the adequacy of business, accessibility, and traffic conditions, among others. In the selection of a site by location, these types of problems are similar. In this case, however, the retailer can select the more suitable site in relation to the characteristics of the business and the objective conditions of the site. Depending on the type of business, shopping malls can provide a convenient solution to the retailer in site selection. Nowadays shopping malls have developed several commercial and service activities to meet the needs of both the consumers and, by extension, the retailers who intend to serve them. Mall developers locate shopping malls in locations which are conducive to the activities of distribution of goods and services to the final consumers, by means of location of physical spaces where the retailer can develop his business. These spaces are offered to prospective tenants for a payment that covers the cost of occupation. This paper intends to analyze the existing models of pricing for these kinds of physical assets, including the cost per square foot in shopping malls, verify empirically the ways these values are settled, and develop a pricing model to fix this value applicable to Brazilian market conditions. It is important to emphasize that this research project intends to make a contribution to the literature dealing with the issue of retail space location and offer some theoretical contributions to the reference process of choosing a retail site, based upon pricing models.

This thesis seeks to understand how state-business relations are affected by wider societal transformations. These transformations influence the potentially crony capitalist type of state society relations. I analyzed the evolution of state-business relations in Morocco. I highlighted three different factors which affected state-business relations and potentially can offset negative consequences of crony capitalism. Fragmentation of state institutions, political factions and economic actors and the maintenance of cross-cutting alliances by the monarchy have resulted in a fragmented-multiclass state. In addition, the changing nature of the role of the state in the economy had profound implications on state-business relations in Morocco. Paradoxically, the fragmented nature of Morocco, which is the result of cross-cutting coalitions between the monarchy and society, meant that the state did not fall exclusively in the hands of private interests. The pivotal position of the monarchy in economic and political life has enabled the monarchy to fragment opposition and forge diverse alliances to maintain its support-base. My theoretical approach using a macro-historical analysis coupled with process tracing of various policy domains proved to be a useful methodology for this type of research which falls in the nexus of politics and economics. Given this my thesis made a contribution to both Middle East studies as well as the wider literature on state-business relations. In addition, my research contributes to the wider debate on the resilience of monarchies in the aftermath of the Arab spring.

This thesis seeks to explain Poland’s energy security policies towards Russia in the period from 1990-2007. It is inspired by the puzzle that Poland’s commitments to reduce its dependence on imported oil and gas from Russia have varied considerably during this period. Numerous large-scale projects to enhance energy security have been proposed, abandoned and revisited, all in the absence of a significant change to Poland’s level of dependence on Russia or its exposure to supply risks. This puzzle poses a challenge to conventional approaches to energy security, which tend to explain policies as a function of ‘material’ shifts in the price, supply or demand for fossil fuels. Though these factors are undoubtedly important it is argued that, in the case of Poland, energy security is more affected by domestic decision-making processes than by such material shifts. In particular, the degree and form of intervention in the energy sector by the political executive in Poland is highlighted as a key factor explaining energy security policy output. These interventions in Poland are classified and distinguished according to three types of ‘policy network’ – statist, corporatist and liberal, each of which represented a different outlook on the optimal means for ensuring energy security. These policy networks were embedded within different governments, and their preferences fashioned Poland’s responses to energy security challenges occurring under similar material conditions.

Orientador: Marcos Antonio Macedo Cintra / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-10T14:07:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cagnin_RafaelFagundes_M.pdf: 1685128 bytes, checksum: 211391caab509472df3f30b6496559fc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Com o aprofundamento da desregulamentação e liberalização financeira, os ciclos de ativos passaram a exercer crescente influência sobre as decisões de gasto nas economias desenvolvidas, especialmente nos EUA. O objetivo desse trabalho é compreender o papel de um ativo específico, os imóveis residenciais, na recuperação americana a partir de 2002, em que se destacaram a expansão do consumo das famílias e do investimento residencial. O ciclo de preço dos imóveis esteve condicionado pela política monetária expansiva do Federal Reserve e pela flexibilidade do sistema americano de financiamento residencial. A centralidade que o crédito ocupa na análise sobre os ciclos do tipo financial led e sua importância para a efetivação da compra do imóvel pelas famílias fez com que esse sistema de financiamento fosse enfatizado / Abstract: With the improvement of financial deregulation and liberalization, the assets cycles have exercised increasing influence over the expenditure decision in developed economies, specially the USA. The purpose of this work is to understand the role of a specific asset, the housing, in the American recovery since 2002, from when the increasing of consumer expenditures and residential investment has stood out. The cycle of housing price was conditioned by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and by the flexibility of the American housing financial system. This system was emphasized due to the central role of credit in the analysis of financial led cycles and its importance for the house buyer / Mestrado / Mestre em Economia

This master´s thesis deals his issue of company performance measurement. In the first part there is given theoretical framework of this topic. The practical part contains analysis of the current situation of the company with two competitors. Based on the analysis there are proposing measures, which will contribute to improving business performance.

Submitted by PEDRO BRITO (pedroedubrito@terra.com.br) on 2017-05-30T13:27:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Chamada_Pú blica - Pedro_E_F_Brito - FGV Direito SP- Mestrado Profissional.pdf: 1169003 bytes, checksum: 4bd37d428d26ee9a0f6b8be7bef63a27 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-05-31T13:54:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Chamada_Pú blica - Pedro_E_F_Brito - FGV Direito SP- Mestrado Profissional.pdf: 1169003 bytes, checksum: 4bd37d428d26ee9a0f6b8be7bef63a27 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-31T16:57:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Chamada_Pú blica - Pedro_E_F_Brito - FGV Direito SP- Mestrado Profissional.pdf: 1169003 bytes, checksum: 4bd37d428d26ee9a0f6b8be7bef63a27 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-20 / The business association between state-owned and private companies has intensified in recent years, in the country. Special purpose partnerships formed between these partners proliferate, especially in the electric Power sector. Federal state-owned enterprises in this sector use these partnerships to expand supply and meet growing demand for electricity, essential for industrial and social development. In the present work, we argue that there is a need to systematize the procedure for the formation of such partnerships between state and private companies. The subject-matter of this study is the public call procedure, a not yet developed means of conferring publicity and transparency on the business conducted between these sectors. The lack of a systematization in the forming of such partnerships with the private sector confers to state-owned companies a very wide margin of discretion for the selection of their partners, without disclosing the criteria and the reasons that would justify such a choice. However, it is recognized that there are regulatory limits imposed by the nature of the state entity, as outlined in the 1988 Federal Constitution, which should form the procedural basis of the public call, in order to render the business entered into by those companies transparent. The examination of the public call procedure in Brazil and abroad examples, the approach taken by the Brazilian Court of Audit and the legislation governing similar procedures leads to the conclusion that the model adopted by the state sector for the proposed purpose is not transparent, since it lacks essential elements for business decision-making. In light of this finding, we propose a way forward, indicating some tools to assist the development of the public call and to make it a procedure capable of creating value for these partnerships, without violating the norms incident on the business of the state enterprise. / A associação empresarial entre empresas estatais e privadas intensificou-se nos últimos anos no país. Proliferam as sociedades de propósito específico formadas entre esses sócios, principalmente no setor elétrico. As empresas estatais federais deste setor utilizam-se dessas parcerias para expandir a oferta e atender a demanda crescente por energia elétrica, essencial para o desenvolvimento industrial e social. No presente trabalho, sustentamos que há necessidade de sistematizar o procedimento utilizado para a formação desse tipo de parcerias entre as empresas estatais e privadas. O procedimento que é objeto do presente estudo é o da chamada pública, um meio ainda precário de conferir publicidade e transparência aos negócios realizados entre esses setores. Partindo da constatação de que a ausência de uma sistematização para esse procedimento de formação de parcerias com o setor privado confere às empresas estatais uma margem muita ampla de discricionariedade para a seleção dos parceiros, sem dar a conhecer os critérios e as razões que justificariam tal escolha, reconhece-se que há limites normativos impostos pela natureza da entidade estatal, traçados na Constituição Federal de 1988, que devem compor a base procedimental da chamada pública, de modo a conferir a necessária transparência aos negócios celebrados por essas empresas. Exemplos de utilização do procedimento da chamada pública no Brasil e no exterior, a abordagem do Tribunal de Contas da União e da legislação que rege procedimentos semelhantes permite concluir que o modelo adotado pelo setor estatal para a finalidade proposta não é transparente, porquanto carece de elementos essenciais para a tomada de decisão empresarial. Diante dessa constatação, propomos um caminho a seguir, indicando algumas ferramentas para auxiliar o desenvolvimento da chamada pública e torná-la um procedimento capaz de criar valor para essas parcerias, sem violar as normas incidentes sobre os negócios da empresa estatal.