The aim of this thesis is to provide tools in order to simplify and extend the analysis of stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models. For models in continuous time, we will focus on stability and steady state solutions, considering constant exogenous parameters. For models in discrete time, we will derive systems with considerable reduction in complexity and size from rather big linear systems of equations set up by previous authors into much simpler systems of difference equations. These can then also be analyzed from a continuous perspective, if their limits are taken. We will also see how an alternative continuous layout of the models proposed by us, further reduces the number of dimensions with respect to their counterparts in discrete time, in some cases. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

This thesis examines two major issues associated with the long memory characteristics of Korean stock market return and return volatility: the presence of long memory; and possible origins of long memory. / Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2008.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att utreda vilka faktorer som påverkar de svenska småhuspriserna, och i så fall hur och i vilken utsträckning. Med stöd av tidigare studier som enhetlig pekar ut bolåneräntan och disponibel inkomst som de faktorer vilka har tydligast inverkan på fastighetspriserna i Sverige, utökas de förklarande variablerna i denna studie med hjälp av en stock-flow modell. Tidsseriedata från 1993-2013 behandlas för enhetsrötter och kointegration för att skattas i en regressionsanalys i form en "Error Correction Model", med avsikten att utreda både ett kort- och långsiktigt samband. Resultatet bekräftar reporäntan och disponibel inkomst som två viktiga faktorer för att förklara det långsiktiga sambandet med priserna på småhus i Sverige, tillsammans med ytterligare faktorer såsom BNP, hushållens skuldsättning och arbetslösheten. På kort sikt är dels den historiska utvecklingen av huspriserna en nyckelfaktor, men faktorer som disponibel inkomst, ränta, BNP och hushållens skuldsättning är också viktiga krafter för att förklara småhuspriserna. En slutsats som kan dras är att hushållens förmåga till ökad konsumtion, när inkomsterna ökar, avspeglas i småhuspriserna. En låg ränta gör samtidigt att fler än någonsin har råd att låna på en marknad med ett redan mycket begränsat bostadsutbud / The purpose of this study is to investigate which factors affect the Swedish real estate prices of small house dwellings, and if so, how and to what extent. With the use of earlier studies, that coherently claims mortgage rate and household disposable income to be the most valuable factors to explain the Swedish real estate prices, this study will consider additional determinant factors with the respect to a stock-flow model. 1993-2013 time series data will be tested for unit roots and cointegration before its run in a regression as an "Error Correction Model", which considers both long- and short run equilibrium. The result confirms the short run rate and disposable income as two determinant key factors when it comes to explaining the long run Swedish housing prices, together with other factors such as GDP, household debt and unemployment rate. In the short run, the historical development of housing prices act as a key determinant, but disposable income, short term rate, GDP and household debt are also important explanatory factors. The study shows that the increased income, and the ability to increase household spending, will be reflected in the housing prices. A low loan rate will concurrently make it possible for more households than ever to loan at a market with an already very restricted housing supply

L’idée centrale de notre analyse sur l’économie française concerne la suprématie des taux d’intérêt et des dépenses publiques comme instruments de politique économique. Avec la forte hausse des taux d’intérêt au début des années 1980, les entreprises non financières ont commencé à demander moins de crédit, tandis que les ménages français, ainsi que d’autres économies en voie de développement en ont demandé davantage. Parallèlement à ces développements, les marchés spéculatifs ont dominé la bourse, le taux de chômage a augmenté, et un processus de libéralisation a suivi. Nous analysons les conséquences de ce processus de financiarisation et certains scénarios possibles en France, tout en utilisant un modèle de type Cowles Commission, qui est à son tour fondé sur la littérature stock-flux. Une attention particulière est donnée aux variables de répartition et fiscales. Les résultats du modèle indiquent que (étant donné que les entreprises françaises sont prises dans une trappe à liquidité) le taux d’intérêt a perdu son pouvoir comme une variable de politique. En revanche, les dépenses publiques ont une puissance expansionniste importante. / The core of our analysis of the French economy concerns the supremacy of interest rates and government spending as policy instruments in this economy. With the strong increase in interest rates at the beginning of the 1980s, non-financial firms started to demand less credit, whereas French households and other developing economies demanded more. Parallel to these developments, bulls became more abundant in stock markets, the unemployment rate soared and a full process of liberalization ensued. We analyze the consequences of this financialization process and some feasible scenarios in France by means of a Cowles Commission-type model that is in turn based on the stock-flow literature. Particular emphasis is given to distributive and fiscalvariables. The model’s results indicate that (given that French firms are caught in a liquidity trap) the interest rate has lost its power as a policy variable. In contrast, public spending has an important expansionary power.

In my first chapter, I provide a solution for how to model bargaining when there is on-the-job search and worker turnover depends on the wage. Bargaining is a standard feature in models without on-the-jobs search, but, due to endogeneity of the match surplus, a solution does not exist when worker turnover depends on the wage. My solution is based on wages being infrequently renegotiated. With renegotiation, the equilibrium wage distribution and the bargaining outcomes are both unique and the model nests earlier models in the literature as limit cases when wages are either continuously or never renegotiated. Furthermore, the rate of renegotiation has important implications for the nature of the equilibrium. A higher rate of renegotiation lowers the response of the match duration to a wage increase, which decreases a firm's willingness to accept a higher wage. This results in a lower share of the match surplus going to the worker. Moreover, a high rate of renegotiation also lowers the positive wage spillovers from a minimum wage increase, since these spillovers rely on firms' incentives to use higher wages to reduce turnover. In the standard job ladder model, search is modelled via an employment-specific Poisson rate. The size of the Poisson rate governs the size of the search friction. The Poisson rate can represent the frequency of applications by workers or the rate at which firms post suitable vacancies. In the second chapter, which is co-authored with Jake Bradley, we set up a model which has both of these aspects. Firms infrequently post vacancies and workers occasionally apply for these vacancies. The model nests the standard job ladder model and a version of the stock-flow model as special cases while remaining analytically tractable and easy to estimate empirically from standard panel data sets. The structurally estimated parameters are consistent with recent survey evidence of worker behavior. The model fits moments of the data that are inconsistent with the standard job ladder model and in the process reconciles the level of frictional wage dispersion in the data with replacement ratios used in the macro labor literature. In my third chapter, which is co-authored with Coen Teulings, we develop a simple method to measure the position in the job ladder in models with on-the-job search. The methodology uses two implications from models with on-the-job search: workers gradually select into better paying jobs until they get laid off at which time they start again to climb the job ladder. The measure relies on two sources of variation: (i) time-variation in job-finding rates and (ii) individual variation in the time since the last lay-off. We use the method to quantify the returns to on-the-job search and to establish the shape of the wage offer distribution by means of simple OLS regressions with wages as dependent variables. Moreover, we derive a simple prediction on the distribution of job durations. Applying the method to the NLSY 79, we find strong support for this class of models. We estimate the standard deviation of the wage offer distribution to be 12%. OJS accounts for 30% of the experience profile and 9% of the total wage dispersion.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T06:03:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nascimento_PauloFranciscodo_M.pdf: 1375419 bytes, checksum: ba7fc3d028483498b980c3fbe5500edc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Embora a maior parte dos trabalhos acadêmicos a respeito da financeirização seja de caráter descritivo ou empírico, na última década surgiram tentativas de inserir os aspectos da financeirização em modelos macroeconômicos formais. Diante de insuficiências das análises formais anteriores, alguns autores utilizaram-se da abordagem chamada stock-flow consistent na concepção de modelos macroeconômicos a respeito da financeirização. Este trabalho é dedicado a analisar o esforço realizado para incorporar a financeirização em modelos macroeconômicos formais utilizando a abordagem stock-flow consistent, buscando avaliar em que medida a abordagem é capaz de representar formalmente a financeirização da maneira como é concebida pela literatura descritiva e empírica e superar as deficiências que as demais tentativas de análise formal apresentam / Abstract: Although the majority of the academic works on financialization are descriptive or empirical, in the last decade there have been attempts to represent its features in formal macroeconomic models. In face of the deficiencies of previous analyses, some authors used the stock-flow consistent approach to elaborate formal macroeconomic models on financialisation. This work is dedicated to analyze the effort employed to incorporate financialisation in macroeconomic models using the stock-flow consistent approach, focusing in evaluating the degree in which the referred approach is able to formally represent financialization in the way it is conceived by descriptive and empirical literature and surpass the deficiencies present in the previous attempts of formal analyses / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

It is increasingly recognized that banks might not be pricing adequately climate risks in the value of their loans contracts. This represents a barrier to scale up the green investments needed to align the economy to sustainability and to preserve financial stability. To overcome this barrier, climate-aligned policies, such as a revision of the microprudential banking framework (for example a Green Supporting Factor (GSF )), and the introduction of stable green fiscal policies (for example a Carbon Tax (CT )), have been advocated. However, understanding the conditions under which a GSF or a CT could represent an opportunity for scaling up green investments, while preventing trade-offs on risk for financial stability, is still insufficient. We contribute to fill this knowledge gap threefold. First, we analyse the risk transmission channels from climate-aligned policies, a GSF and a CT, to the credit market and the real economy via loans contracts. Second, we assess the reinforcing feedbacks leading to cascading macro-financial shocks. Third, we consider how banks could react to the policies, i.e., their climate sentiments. In this regard, we embed for the first- time banks climate sentiments, modelled as a non-linear adaptive forecasting function into a Stock-Flow Consistent model that represents agents and sectors of the real economy and the credit market as a network of interconnected balance sheets. Our results suggest that the GSF is not sufficient to effectively scale up green investments via a change in lending conditions to green firms. In contrast, the CT could shift the bank's loans and the green/brown firms' investments towards the green sector. Nevertheless, it could imply short-term negative transition effects on GDP growth and financial stability, according to how the policy is implemented. Finally, our results show that bank's anticipation of a climate-aligned policy, through stronger climate sentiments, could smooth the risk for financial stability and foster green investments. Thus, our results contribute to understand the conditions for the onset and the mitigation of climate-related financial risks and opportunities. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

It is increasingly recognized that banks might not be pricing adequately climate risks in the value of their loans contracts. This represents a barrier to scale up the green investments needed to align the economy to sustainability and to preserve financial stability. To overcome this barrier, climate-aligned policies, such as a revision of the microprudential banking framework (for example a Green Supporting Factor (GSF )), and the introduction of stable green fiscal policies (for example a Carbon Tax (CT )), have been advocated. However, understanding the conditions under which a GSF or a CT could represent an opportunity for scaling up green investments, while preventing trade-offs on risk for financial stability, is still insufficient. We contribute to fill this knowledge gap threefold. First, we analyse the risk transmission channels from climate-aligned policies, a GSF and a CT, to the credit market and the real economy via loans contracts. Second, we assess the reinforcing feedbacks leading to cascading macro-financial shocks. Third, we consider how banks could react to the policies, i.e., their climate sentiments. In this regard, we embed for the first- time banks climate sentiments, modelled as a non-linear adaptive forecasting function into a Stock-Flow Consistent model that represents agents and sectors of the real economy and the credit market as a network of interconnected balance sheets. Our results suggest that the GSF is not sufficient to effectively scale up green investments via a change in lending conditions to green firms. In contrast, the CT could shift the bank's loans and the green/brown firms' investments towards the green sector. Nevertheless, it could imply short-term negative transition effects on GDP growth and financial stability, according to how the policy is implemented. Finally, our results show that bank's anticipation of a climate-aligned policy, through stronger climate sentiments, could smooth the risk for financial stability and foster green investments. Thus, our results contribute to understand the conditions for the onset and the mitigation of climate-related financial risks and opportunities. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

La théorie économique néoclassique a historiquement évolué autour du concept d’équilibre (partiel ou général), supposé stable à long terme et indépendant des fluctuations monétaires ou réelles autour de l’équilibre même. L’attention plus récente vers le principe de dépendance au sentier et, en particulier, l’émergence du concept d’hystérèse en économie, remet en cause les propriétés de ces équilibres, notamment en ce qui concerne l’unicité, la stabilité et l’indépendance par rapport aux fluctuations. La thèse se concentre sur le modèle dit d’hystérèse « véritable », qui a ses origines dans la physique. Loin de promouvoir une approche scientifique « dure » en l’économie, il s’agit d’analyser les conséquences des discontinuités d’investissement des entreprises sur les fluctuations et sur les trajectoires de long terme. A’ travers l’approche théorique Postkeynésienne et l’approche méthodologique multi-agents, la thèse développe un modèle qui est capable de générer des fluctuations non linéaires autour d’équilibres purement transitoires, c’est à dire qui s’établissent de manière endogène à partir des sentiers d’ajustement effectivement entrepris. Dans ce cadre analytique, on retrouve renforcées les implications Postkeynésiennes de l’inégalité dans la distribution du revenu, sur l’utilisation des capacités productives existantes et sur le taux de croissance de l’économie. De surcroit, les politiques économiques de relance dites keynésiennes regagnent une place centrale sur le court ainsi que sur le long terme. / The neoclassical theory developed historically around the concept of equilibrium (partial or general), by assuming its long run stability and independence from monetary and real fluctuations. The growing emphasis on path-dependence and, particularly, on the concept of hysteresis calls into question the traditional method, by rejecting the theoretical validity of the neoclassical equilibrium and its related properties of stability. This thesis focuses on the model of “genuine” hysteresis, which first developed in the field of physics and recently extended its application to economic phenomena. Far from suggesting an appropriation of the methods that are typical of “hard” sciences, the aim is to analyse the consequences of discontinuous and hysteretic investment decisions on business cycles and long run trajectories. By relying on the Post Keynesian theory of growth and distribution, and the multi-agent methodological approach, this thesis develops a macroeconomic theoretical model that is able to generate non-linear business cycles around transitory equilibria, which are fully endogenous and historically determined according to the specific adjustment path. This theoretical framework confirms and reinforces the traditional Post Keynesian implications of income inequalities on the degree of utilization of productive capacity and on long run growth. Moreover, expansionary demand policies regain a central role in driving the economy towards the full employment of productive resources.

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo discutir diferentes aspectos de um método de modelagem econômica conhecido por Modelos Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). Essa classe de modelos tem como principais características a presença de matrizes que representam os balanços patrimoniais dos setores modelados, bem como os fluxos de transações e de fundos financeiros. A primeira etapa do trabalho consiste em analisar as origens dos modelos SFC, apresentando os trabalhos que precederam as primeiras formulações. Em seguida, é feito um survey completo da literatura SFC corrente. Essas duas etapas são realizadas através de uma revisão bibliográfica de artigos, working papers, teses e dissertações. A terceira etapa do trabalho consiste em discutir aspectos metodológicos da modelagem SFC, em especial a modelagem de equações comportamentais de expectativas. Por fim, um modelo SFC é elaborado com o objetivo de analisar o comportamento de uma economia sob quatro regimes fiscais diferentes: (i) balanço equilibrado; (ii) meta de gastos do governo como proporção do PIB; (iii) meta de déficit do governo como proporção do PIB; (iv) meta de dívida pública como proporção do PIB. O comportamento em estado estacionário desses regimes é analisado, bem como sua resiliência a choques. Entre as conclusões, percebeu-se que o segundo regime apresenta a maior taxa de crescimento no steady state, além de ser mais resiliente a choques negativos. / The general goal of this dissertation is to discuss different dimensions of a class of Post-Keynesian models known as Stock-Flow Consistent Models. The main features of these models are: (i) the presence of balance sheets matrices of the sectors to be modeled, guaranteeing the consistency in the economic stocks; (ii) the flow of funds matrix, that records the real and financial transactions of the economy. The first step of the work is to analyze the origins of the SFC models, presenting the works that preceded the first elaborations. Next to it, the current SFC literature is surveyed. These two steps are accomplished by means of a survey of the literature in academic journals, working papers, dissertations and thesis. The third step of the work is a discussion of methodological issues such as the role of expectations in the behavioral functions for consumption. Finally, the fourth step consists of elaborating a SFC model in order to analyze four fiscal policy regimes: (i) balanced budget, (ii) a target for government’s expenditures , (iii) a target for government deficit, and (iv) a target for government debt. The steady state behavior of each regime is analyzed, as well as its resilience to adverse shocks. The second regime is the one with the higher steady state growth rate and also is the more resilient to negative shocks.