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Tracing the source of oxidizing fluids in subduction zones using iron isotopes in garnetGerrits, Anna R. January 2018 (has links)
Thesis advisor: Ethan F. Baxter / Subduction zones are the primary areas of chemical and mass transfer between the Earth’s surface and the mantle. Dehydration during subduction has been linked to subduction seismicity, arc volcanism, and redox (fO2) changes in the subducting slab and overlying mantle wedge. Despite this, no petrologic record tracing the source of oxidizing fluids from the down going slab has yet been observed. To address this, this study shows a direct record of progressive redox change recorded in zoned garnet crystals from Sifnos and Syros, Greece that grew through the breakdown of the hydrous mineral lawsonite during subduction. Oxygen fugacities (fO2) calculated using garnet-epidote oxybarometry for multiple growth zones within single garnet grains have been compared with stable iron isotope compositions in the same growth zone. These combined measurements reveal that garnet cores grew under oxidized conditions, recording higher fO2 and lower 56Fe values, whereas garnet rims grew under more reduced conditions with lower fO2 and higher 56Fe values. This is consistent with the release of oxidizing fluids into the sub-arc mantle accompanying lawsonite breakdown and dehydration, leaving behind a progressively reduced residual slab mineral assemblage. These coupled fO2 and Fe isotope data show that slab dehydration accompanying lawsonite breakdown plays an important and measureable role in the global redox budget, and provides a mechanism for sub-arc mantle oxidation. / Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2018. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Earth and Environmental Sciences.
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Esmectitas dioctaédricas como transportadores de nitrogênio em zonas de subducção : uma visão experimental acerca da sua contribuição ao nitrogênio atmosféricoCedeño, Daniel Grings January 2017 (has links)
O nitrogênio compõe cerca de 78% da massa da atmosfera terrestre e é um elemento imprescindível para a construção e manutenção da vida. Porém a abundância de nitrogênio atmosférico da Terra é anômala quando comparada a dos demais planetas telúricos. Isso significa que ou a acresção para esses planetas foi diferente (o que é pouco provável) ou a Terra possui alguma característica única que permita a existência de grandes volumes de nitrogênio em sua atmosfera. A tectônica de placas poderia ser essa característica, uma vez que propicia uma conexão direta entre o manto e superfície (ao mesmo tempo em que material é expelido do manto para a superfície, material é transportado da superfície para o manto). Nesse contexto, este trabalho objetiva compreender, através de simulações em laboratório, o papel das zonas de subducção no transporte global do nitrogênio. Para tal, submeteu-se um material que simula sedimentos pelágicos (esmectitas dioctaédricas) dopado com amônio (NH4-esmectita) a diversas condições de pressão e temperatura: desde pressão ambiente até 7.7 GPa (equivalente a ~270 km de profundidade) e com temperaturas variando entre 200oC e 700oC. Os experimentos foram realizados em uma prensa hidráulica de 1000 tonf com câmaras de perfil toroidal e em um forno de alta temperatura e foram analisados por difração de raios X (DRX), espectroscopia infravermelho por Transformada de Fourier (FTIR) e por imageamento SE-MEV-EDS Além disso, o material inicial foi caracterizado por análise térmica diferencial (DTA) e análise química CHN. Os resultados mostram que as transformações de fase sofridas pela NH4-esmectita agem no sentido de preservar o amônio na estrutura durante o processo de subducção. Também foram observadas fases de pressões mais elevadas capazes de conter amônio (buddingtonita, a 7.7 GPa). Percebeu-se que o regime termal da subducção é fundamental para a eficiência do transporte de nitrogênio, visto que em subducções quentes (litosferas oceânicas jovens que subductam em baixo ângulo) ocorre a fusão parcial do material com liberação de parte do amônio em pressões relativamente baixas (~1 GPa, equivalente a 30 km de profundidade). Por outro lado, em subducções frias (litosferas oceânicas antigas que subductam em alto ângulo) o material aprisiona de forma eficiente o nitrogênio até ~270 km de profundidade (7.7 GPa). / Nitrogen composes around 78 wt% of Earth’s atmosphere and is a vital element for the construction and maintenance of life. However, the abundance of Earth’s atmospheric nitrogen is anomalous when compared to the one from other inner planets. This means that or accretion for these planets was different (which is unlikely) or Earth possesses a unique feature that allows the existence of large volumes of nitrogen in its atmosphere. Plate tectonics could be this feature, since it propitiates a direct connection between mantle and surface (at the same time that material is expelled by the mantle in to the surface, material is transported from the surface in to the mantle). In this context, these work objectives the understanding, through laboratoty simulations, the role of subduction zones in the global transport of nitrogen. For that, a material that simulates pelagic sediments (dioctahedral smectite) doped with ammonium (NH4-smectite) was subjected to a series of pressure and temperature conditions: from ambient pressure up to 7.7 GPa (equivalent to ~270 km depth) and temperatures varying between 200oC and 700oC. Experiments were performed in a 1000 tonf hydraulic press with coupled toroidal chambers and in a high temperature furnace and were analyzed by X ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and SE-SEM-EDS imaging. Additionally, the starting material was characterized by differential thermal analysis (DTA and CHN chemical analysis Results show that phase transformations suffered by NH4-smectite tend to preserve ammonium inside the mineral structure during subduction. Also, high-pressure ammonium bearing phases were observed (budingtonite at 7.7 GPa). It was perceived that the thermal setting of the subduction is fundamental for the efficiency of nitrogen’s transportation, as in hot subductions (young oceanic lithospheres subducting at low angle) partial melting with partial liberation of ammonium occur in relatively low pressures (~1 GPa, equivalent to 30 km depth). On the other hand, in cold subductions (ancient oceanic lithopsheres subducting at high angles) the material efficiently imprisons nitrogen until ~270 km depth (7.7 GPa).
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The Structural Evolution of the Calabrian Forearc: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Investigating Time-Transgressive Deformation in a Subduction-Rollback SystemReitz, Margaret Alison January 2015 (has links)
This dissertation investigates the temporal and spatial variations in deformation of the Calabrian forearc during the evolution of the subduction-rollback system. In addition to contributing new data to the area, I develop three strategies for understanding recent and active deformation by linking long-term structural data with short-term geomorphological data. First, setting a “baseline” of deformation is important when studying plate boundaries. Through the structural mapping of an uplifted forearc basin, I conclude that rapid rollback is characterized by tectonic quiescence in the Calabrian forearc when it is located far from collision (from ~12 Ma – ~5 Ma). This “baseline” provides a framework from which I interpret younger phases of deformation. In the middle Pliocene (~5-4 Ma), an arc-parallel shortening event characterizes the first stage of forearc collision in my field area. These folded sediments are later tilted, but structural data from the field cannot constrain the age or structure responsible for this youngest phase of deformation.
The Neto River dissects this tilted surface opening up the possibly of linking structural data with geomorphic data from river erosion. I collected a transect of river sediment samples for 10Be analysis to determine variation in catchment-wide erosion rates through the modern day deformation. I, then, developed a numerical model that describes changes in erosion rate through time with the structural growth of the tilted surface. The model is the first of its kind to use catchment-wide erosion rates to constrain a structural model. The model results constrain the age of the beginning of deformation to 850 ka and suggest that a fold with a migrating hinge caused tilting of the surface.
The model provides the basis for my hypothesis that the forearc is experiencing an arc-perpendicular shortening strain, which contradicts conclusions from GPS data and the well-documented extension in the western part of the forearc. To further investigate surficial deformation, I carry out geomorphic analyses of 87 river drainages. I interpret my findings in terms of structural framework and find that surficial deformation varies tremendously from east to west. The rivers draining eastward are characterized by low concavities and higher erosion rates, consistent with shortening. While just 50 km away, the westward-draining rivers are characterized by high concavities and lower erosion rates, consistent with extension. Overall, the drainages are shifting from east-draining to west-draining, likely due to the topographic growth that decreases concavities on the eastern side. Although a new interpretation, this finding is consistent with previous structural, paleomagnetic, and seismological datasets.
In each of the chapters, I interpret the structural and geomorphic data in a regional framework. This extra step is critical in interpreting deformation along active plate boundaries because it is highly variable and can be seemingly contradictory. In my final chapter, I present a cross section of the plate boundary that incorporates my data and interpretations from the geomorphic results and the most recent structural event as well as data from multiple other sources (GPS, seismological, paleomagnetics, structural, tomographic, geomorphic, etc.). This approach confirms the importance of boundary conditions on deformation in a subduction-rollback system. More intriguingly, the cross-section highlights the spatial variations along the surface and with depth suggesting that there is significant interplay between active structures.
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Seismicity and seismic imaging of the Alaska megathrust faultLi, Jiyao January 2016 (has links)
The largest earthquakes and the majority of the seismic energy are released on megathrust faults in subduction zones. The goal of this dissertation is to characterize the seismic behavior, structural and physical properties of the megathrust fault, so that we can better understand the controls on slip behavior and large earthquakes. To address this goal, I analyzed seismicity data collected by a local seismic network deployed in southern Alaska and multi-channel seismic (MCS) data from an active-source survey offshore of the Alaska Peninsula. This dissertation work revealed seismicity patterns associated with a large asperity, downdip transitions in megathrust fault structure, and along-strike variations in the properties of subducting sediment on the shallow part of the subduction zone. All of these observations have important implications for seismic behavior of the megathrust.
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New Insights on the Structure of the Cascadia Subduction Zone from Amphibious Seismic DataJaniszewski, Helen A. January 2018 (has links)
A new onshore-offshore seismic dataset from the Cascadia subduction zone was used to characterize mantle lithosphere structure from the ridge to the volcanic arc, and plate interface structure offshore within the seismogenic zone. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) covered the Juan de Fuca plate offshore the northwest coast of the United States with an ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) array for four years; this was complemented by a simultaneous onshore seismic array. Teleseismic data recorded by this array allows the unprecedented imaging of an entire tectonic plate from its creation at the ridge through subduction initiation and back beyond the volcanic arc along the entire strike of the Cascadia subduction zone. Higher frequency active source seismic data also provides constraints on the crustal structure along the plate interface offshore.
Two seismic datasets were used to image the plate interface structure along a line extending 100 km offshore central Washington. These are wide-angle reflections from ship-to-shore seismic data from the Ridge-To-Trench seismic cruise and receiver functions calculated from a densely spaced CI OBS focus array in a similar region. Active source seismic observations are consistent with reflections from the plate interface offshore indicating the presence of a P-wave velocity discontinuity. Until recently, there has been limited success in using the receiver function technique on OBS data. I avoid these traditional challenges by using OBS constructed with shielding deployed in shallow water on the continental shelf. These data have quieter horizontals and avoid water- and sediment-multiple contamination at the examined frequencies. The receiver functions are consistently modeled with a velocity structure that has a low velocity zone (LVZ) with elevated P to S-wave velocity ratios at the plate interface. A similar LVZ structure has been observed onshore and interpreted as a combination of elevated pore-fluid pressures or metasediments. This new offshore result indicates that the structure may persist updip indicating the plate interface may be weak.
To focus more broadly on the entire subduction system, I calculate phase velocities from teleseismic Rayleigh waves from 20-100 s period across the entire onshore-offshore array. The shear-wave velocity model calculated from these data can provide constrains on the thermal structure of the lithosphere both prior to and during subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate. Using OBS data in this period band requires removal of tilt and compliance noise, two types of water-induced noise that affect long period data. To facilitate these corrections on large seismic arrays such as the CI, an automated quality control routine was developed for selecting noise windows for the calculation of the required transfer functions. These corrections typically involve either averaging out transient signals, which requires the assumption of stationarity of the noise over the long periods of time, or laborious hand selection of noise segments. This new method calculates transfer functions based on daily time series that exclude transient signals, but allows for the investigation of long-term variation over the course of an instrument’s deployment. I interpret these new shoreline-crossing phase velocity maps in terms of the tectonics associated with the Cascadia subduction system. Major findings include that oceanic plate cooling models do not explain the velocities observed beneath the Juan de Fuca plate, that slow velocities in the forearc appear to be more prevalent in areas modeled to have experienced high slip in past Cascadia megathrust earthquakes, and along strike variations in phase velocity reflect variations in arc structure and backarc tectonics.
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The seismogenic potential of subducting sedimentsRabinowitz, Hannah January 2018 (has links)
This thesis examines the seismic behavior of sediments in shallow subduction zones. In the traditional view of the seismogenic zone, the upper stability limit is controlled by a transition to velocity-strengthening (frictionally stable) clay-rich sediments at shallow depths in the accretionary prism. However, recent observations have emphasized that these shallow sediments can host a wide range of seismic behaviors. On one end of the seismic spectrum, the March 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku-oki earthquake demonstrated that peak slip in a megathrust rupture can be hosted at the shallowest depths. At the other end of the spectrum, observations at the Hikurangi trench off the North Island of New Zealand have revealed that spontaneous, periodic slow slip events (SSEs) can nucleate in the shallowest portions of a subduction zone.
The Japan Fast Trench Drilling Project (JFAST, IODP Expedition 343) drilled through the plate boundary faults in the Japan Trench to investigate the structure that hosted the Tohoku-oki earthquake. In Chapter 2, I use a trace element-based stratigraphy to identify several large displacement faults within the bottom ~15 m of the JFAST core. This work highlights that there are multiple candidate structures that could host a megathrust rupture and that not all displacement is accommodated along a weak pelagic clay layer recovered in the JFAST core. However, this method is incapable of determining which of these faults experienced significant seismic slip. In Chapter 3, I develop a novel paleoseismic indicator appropriate for faults hosted in seafloor sediments. This tool takes advantage of the fact that organic material (molecular biomarkers) in sediments degrades as a function of time and temperature. In this study, I determine the kinetics of thermal maturation for alkenones (coccolithophore-derived molecules) and n-alkanes (plant leaf wax-derived molecules) found in western Pacific sediments. In Chapter 4, I apply these kinetics to measured biomarker anomalies in JFAST samples to determine which faults recovered in the JFAST core could have hosted a megathrust event such as the Tohoku-oki earthquake. This approach reveals that multiple faults in the plate boundary region have likely hosted megathrust events and that the occurrence of seismic slip is not confined to a particular lithology. This implies that small differences in frictional behavior in subducting sedimentary lithologies are not the primary control on the occurrence of shallow seismic slip.
In Chapter 5, I turn to a different type of shallow seismic behavior and focus on SSEs in the shallowest portion of the Hikurangi trench. In this study, I measure friction and velocity-dependence of the input sediments for this subduction zone at a range of pressures and temperatures relevant to the shallow portion of the slab where SSEs have been observed. These experiments demonstrate that the sediment here becomes frictionally weak at effective stresses expected deeper than ~2 km. At the same effective stresses, the sediment becomes less velocity strengthening, and under some conditions exhibits velocity neutral behavior. A plate-rate experiment exhibits velocity-weakening behavior and two spontaneous SSEs, indicating that at slow velocities, the sediment subducting at the Hikurangi trench is capable of unstable frictional behavior required to promote shallow SSEs. These results demonstrate that subducting sediments can exhibit a variety of frictional properties that can support unstable behavior in the shallowest reaches of the subduction zone.
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Mantle Heterogeneity and the Origins of Primitive Arc Lavas: An Experimental Study with a Focus on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic BeltWeaver, Stephanie, Weaver, Stephanie January 2012 (has links)
Primitive, mantle-derived magmas provide important clues about the formation and equilibration conditions of magmas at depth. In subduction zones, it is uncommon for primitive magmas to ascend through the shallow mantle and crust without undergoing chemical modification. Instead, magmas commonly differentiate through fractional crystallization, crustal assimilation, or magma mixing. Those rare primitive lavas that do erupt along a volcanic arc are useful for elucidating subduction-related processes within the mantle wedge (~30–80 km depth) and are the focus of this research.
I used piston-cylinder apparatuses to investigate the high-pressure, high-temperature, H2O-undersaturated phase equilibria for several primitive compositions that have erupted at volcanic arcs. I aimed to reveal the permissible residual mantle mineralogy, as well as the P-T- H2O conditions over which the putative mantle melts last equilibrated before erupting. My work focuses on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), where primitive compositions span a range of SiO2, total alkalies (K2O+Na2O), magmatic H2O, and incompatible trace element enrichments. Variations among these components are presumed to result from melting heterogeneous mantle that has been affected, to varying degrees, by a subduction component. Chapter III focuses on the phase equilibria of a Mexican basaltic andesite and an Aleutian basalt. Results show that hydrous basaltic andesite equilibrated with harzburgite in the shallow mantle, whereas the basalt equilibrated with lherzolite. The former appears more common in continental arcs and the latter in intraoceanic arcs. Chapter IV focuses on two alkaline lavas of varying K2O content from the TMVB that are transitional between potassic, hydrous minette and H2O-poor intraplate alkali basalt. Experimental phase relations and trace element modeling reveals that melting and/or mixing of peridotite and clinopyroxene-rich veins are likely involved in producing these transitional lava types.
These experimental data are integrated with other petrologic and geophysical data to provide an along-arc perspective of mantle-melt equilibration in the TMVB. Primitive melts appear to commonly equilibrate with chemically heterogeneous mantle at depths above the "hot nose" of the mantle wedge. It is apparent that the shallow mantle wedge is a key component for understanding the geochemical complexities of subduction zone magmas.
This dissertation includes previously published and unpublished co-authored material.
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Cinématique et tectonique active de l'Ouest de la Grèce dans le cadre géodynamique de la Méditerranée Centrale et Orientale / Kinematics and active tectonics of Western Greece in the framework of Central and Eastern Mediterranean geodynamicsPérouse, Eugénie 16 May 2013 (has links)
La Méditerranée se situe dans une zone de convergence lente entre les plaques Eurasienne et Africaine (~5 mm/an), où des restes d'anciens bassins Téthysiens sont progressivement consommés par le retrait rapide de zones de subductions (~20-30 mm/an sur la zone de subduction Hellénique). En Méditerranée Orientale, une transition collision-subduction se produit dans l'Ouest de la Grèce (collision de la Plateforme Apulienne au nord et subduction Hellénique au sud), pratiquement à l’extrémité du Golfe de Corinthe et dans une région de propagation potentielle de la faille Nord Anatolienne. Afin d'étudier la cinématique actuelle de l'Ouest de la Grèce, nous adoptons une approche multi-échelle de la déformation:(1) Une modélisation grande échelle du champ de vitesses crustale horizontales mesuré par géodésie est effectuée afin de contraindre la cinématique au voisinage de l'Ouest de la Grèce, à la fois à terre et en mer. Un résultat majeur est qu'une zone d'extension distribuée N-S s'étendant de la Bulgarie à l'Est du Golfe de Corinthe a pour conséquence de désactiver la terminaison Ouest de la faille Nord Anatolienne dans le nord de la Mer Egée. Cette extension d’échelle régionale pourrait être causée par le retrait du slab Hellénique. (2) Une étude tectonique active permet d'établir une cartographie précise des failles actives de la région, leur chronologie relative et une estimation de leur vitesse de déplacement. Le demi-graben actif du Golfe Amvrakikos et la faille active N155° de Katouna-Stamna, qui constituent les frontières Nord et Est d'un bloc Iles Ioniennes-Akarnanie (IAB), sont caractérisés par des vitesses géologiques d'au moins ~ 4 mm/an et des vitesses mesurées par GPS de l'ordre de ~10 mm/an. Ce bloc IAB est limité à l'Ouest par la faille transformante de Céphalonie et semble se comporter de manière rigide.(3) Une fois les frontières du bloc IAB connues, nous montrons que le champ de vitesse GPS mesuré dans la région peut être entièrement expliqué par des effets transitoires de blocage élastique associés aux failles bordières de ce bloc. Le couplage sur l'interface de subduction n'a pas d'expression en surface, ce qui suggère qu'il doit être faible. Enfin, nous justifions l'existence d'un point triple de type Rift-Faille-Faille à la terminaison Ouest du Golfe du Corinthe. / The Mediterranean is a diffuse plate boundary zone between the slowly converging Eurasian and African plates (~ 5mm/yr), where remnants of old Tethyan basins are progressively consumed by fast trench retreat (~20-30 mm/yr at the Hellenic subduction zone). In Eastern Mediterranean, a collision-subduction transition occurs in Western Greece (collision of the Apulian Platform to the north and Hellenic subduction zone to the south), close to the westward Corinth Rift termination and in a region that may be potentially affected by the westward propagation of the North Anatolian Fault. We used a multi-scale deformation approach to investigate Western Greece active kinematics:(1) We run a large scale model of horizontal crustal velocities measured by GPS to constrain the kinematic boundary conditions of Western Greece, both onshore and offshore. A major result is the occurrence of distributed N-S extension spreading from Bulgaria to the Eastern Corinth rift, resulting in de-activation of the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault in North Aegean Sea. This large scale extension could be associated to the retreat of the Hellenic slab.(2) An active tectonics study has been performed to provide an accurate mapping of active faults in the region, to constrain their relative chronology and to estimate their geological slip-rate. The Amvrakikos Gulf active half-graben and the N155° active Katouna-Stamna Fault, which form the northern and eastern boundaries of a Ionian Island-Akarnania block (IAB), have geological slip rates of at least ~ 4mm/yr and GPS slip-rates of ~ 10 mm/yr. The IAB is bounded to the west by the Kefalonia transform fault and appears to behave rigidly.(3) Once the IAB boundaries are defined, we show that the velocity field measured by GPS in the region can be totally accounted by transient elastic loading along the IAB bordering faults. Subduction interface coupling has no surface expression, suggesting low coupling. Finally, we justify the occurrence of a Rift-Fault-Fault triple junction at the western termination of the Corinth Rift.
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Characterization of stress changes in subduction zones from space- and ground-based geodetic observationsStressler, Bryan James 01 May 2017 (has links)
Temporally and spatially clustered earthquake sequences along plate boundary zones indicate that patterns of seismicity may be influenced by earthquake-induced stress changes. Many studies invoke Coulomb stress change (CSC) as one possible geo-mechanical mechanism to explain stress interactions between earthquakes, their aftershocks, or large subsequent earthquakes; however, few address the statistical robustness of CSC triggering beyond spatial correlations. To address this, I evaluate the accuracy of CSC predictions in subduction zones where Earth’s largest earthquakes occur and generate voluminous and diverse aftershock sequences. A series of synthetic tests are implemented to investigate the accuracy of inferred stress changes predicted by slip distributions inverted from suites of geodetic observations (InSAR, GPS, seafloor geodetic observations) that are increasingly available for subduction zone earthquakes. Through these tests, I determine that inferred stress changes are accurately predicted at distances greater than a critical distance from modeled slip that is most dependent on earthquake magnitude and the proximity of observations to the earthquake itself. This methodology is then applied to the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence to identify aftershocks that may be used to perform statistically robust tests of CSC triggering; however, only 13 aftershocks from a population of 475 events occurred where confidence in CSC predictions is deemed to be high. The inferred CSC for these events exhibit large uncertainties owing to nodal plane uncertainties assigned to the aftershock mechanisms. Additionally, tests of multiple published slip distributions result in inconsistent stress change predictions resolved for the 13 candidate aftershocks. While these results suggest that CSC imparted by subduction megathrust earthquakes largely cannot be resolved with slip distributions inverted from terrestrial geodetic observations alone, the synthetic tests suggest that dramatic improvements can be made through the inclusion of near-source geodetic observations from seafloor geodetic networks. Furthermore, CSC uncertainties will likely improve with detailed earthquake moment tensor catalogs generated from dense regional seismic networks.
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Coastal Crossing of the Elastic Strain Zero-Isobase, Cascadia Margin, South Central Oregon CoastBriggs, Gregory George 03 August 1994 (has links)
The analysis of marsh cores from the tidal zones of the Siuslaw, Umpqua, and Coos River systems on the south-central Oregon coast provides supporting evidence of coseismic subsidence resulting from megathrust earthquakes and reveals the landward extent of the zero-isobase. The analysis is based on lithostratigraphy, paleotidal indicators, microfossil paleotidal indicators, and radiocarbon age. Coseismic activity is further supported by the presence of anomalous thin sand layers present in certain cores. The analysis of diatom assemblages provides evidence of relative sea-level displacement on the order of 1 to 2 m. The historic quiescence of local synclinal structures in the Coos Bay area together with the evidence of prehistoric episodic burial of wetland sequences suggests that the activity of these structures is linked to megathrust releases. The distribution of cores containing non-episodically buried marshes and cores that show episodically buried wetlands within this area suggests that the landward extent of the zero-isobase is between 100 km and 120 km from the trench. The zero-isobase has a minimum width of 10 to 15 km. Radiocarbon dating of selected buried peat sequences yields an estimated recurrence interval on the order of 400 years. The apparent overlapping of the landward margin of both the upperplate deformation zone (fold and/or thrust fault belt) and the landward extent of the zero-isobase is interpreted to represent the landward limit of the locked zone. The earthquake magnitude is estimated to be 8.5 based on an arbitrary rupture length of 200 km and a locked zone width of 105 km. The identification of the zero-isobase on the southcentral Oregon coast is crucial to the prediction of regional coseismic subsidence and tsunami hazards, the testing of megathrust dislocation models, and the estimation of megathrust rupture areas and corresponding earthquake magnitudes in the Cascadia Margin.
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