This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the trends and determinants of South Africa’s sugar production and exports within the TFTA between 1996 and 2014. The specific objectives of the study were (1) to identify trends in South Africa’s sugar production and exports within the TFTA between 1996 and 2014; (2) to determine the drift rate in South Africa’s sugar exports within the TFTA between 1996 and 2014; (3) to investigate the correlation between South Africa’s sugar production and exports between 1996 and 2014; and (4) to determine the factors that affect production and exports in South Africa’s sugar industry in order to identify the industry’s major challenges and opportunities for sustained performance. The secondary data, obtained from the Economic Analysis and Agricultural Statistics Directorate of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), were used to meet the first three objectives of the study. The primary data, obtained by means of a survey questionnaire and interviews with key stakeholders, were used to meet the fourth objective of the study. A 7-point Likert scale was applied to indicate the degree to which each of the determining factors are perceived to affect the performance and resulting competitiveness of the sugar industry. The Johansen test and Porter’s Diamond Model were the analytical techniques used in the study. The results of the analysis of the secondary data revealed continued fluctuations in sugar production in South Africa between 1996 and 2014. On the basis of this, the researcher rejected the hypothesis that there is no trend in South Africa’s sugar production. It was therefore concluded that seasonal variations accounted for these fluctuations in the sugar industry. As determined using the Johansen test, drift rate variations came to 51%, indicating that there is potential for growth in South Africa’s sugar exports. This was confirmed by the results of the bivariate correlation between production and exports which clearly indicated a positive relationship between the two and prompted the researcher to accept the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between the production and export of sugar. In determining the factors that influence South Africa’s sugar production and exports, a number of obstacles to competitiveness success were identified. With regard to sugar production, applying Porter’s Diamond model revealed that the major constraints experienced by respondents in the study area were the availability of skilled labour; cost of doing business; level of infrastructure development; cost of infrastructure; water availability; climatic conditions; soil quality; rainfall patterns; availability of financial services; access to credit; crime; and HIV/AIDS. In terms of exports, tariffs were found to be the major constraint along with certain of the abovementioned factors. While the majority of respondents view macroeconomic policy and trade policy as export constraints, South Africa’s labour, B-BBEE and competition policies are seen as neither constraining nor supportive. Product design; packaging; labelling and pricing; as well as the manager’s willingness to export; level of education and training; length of time in the business; experience; and language had a positive effect on competitive success. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

Private sector sugar millers and Ithala Development Finance Corporation (Ithala) implemented a graduated mortgage loan repayment scheme in the 1995/96 sugarcane production-season to try and improve access to farmland by aspirant commercial farmers in KwaZulu-Natal. By March 2001, the scheme had financed 106 "medium scale farmers" (MSFs), 99 of whom were still in the scheme (one loan had been repaid from own funds, and another six from the proceeds of life insurance policies). The first aim of this study was to analyse factors affecting whether or not the MSFs were current or in arrears on loan repayments as at 31 March 2001. A logit model based on full information for 83 MSFs shows that the estimated probability of a MSF being current on loan repayments was higher for clients with higher levels of average annual gross turnover relative to loan size, and for clients with access to substantive off-farm income. This suggests that farm size (proxied by annual farm gross turnover) does matter when policymakers in South Africa consider future similar schemes designed to improve access to commercial farmland by people that previously could not buy farmland. Smaller-sized, creditworthy farms with loan sizes that are relatively low compared to the expected average annual gross income may also be viable. Access to off-farm income could also be considered as a criterion in selecting potential farmers for future similar schemes, as it helps to provide additional liquidity to fund future operations and debt repayments, and can reduce leverage levels. The second aim was to conduct personal interviews with the 99 MSFs between July and September 2001 in order to identify what aspects of the scheme could be improved for new members . Responses from 88 of these MSFs show that 68% of them would opt to first rent land before purchasing, while 78% of them recognize, or have experienced, the cash flow problem associated with land purchase. Most of the MSFs felt that long-term sugarcane supply agreements constrain enterprise diversification, and that the quality of mentorship that they currently received was not satisfactory. Industry players could consider leveraging donor funding for empowerment projects to improve the quality of future mentorship programmes. There is also some scope for Ithala to improve the client-lender relationship by better clarifying the structure of the graduated repayments, sending loan statements on time, and helping clients to interpret loan statements. Growers perceive the need for a coordinator to monitor, and advise on how to improve, their financial performance this could be a new commercial service opportunity. Using an independent valuer to conduct farm valuations may also be necessary to avoid perceptions of bias in the value of farms offered for sale by the millers. A logit model of the MSFs' preferences for first renting land before purchase shows that new growers joining this scheme, or similar schemes for other farm products, with relatively less liquidity and less farming experience should be given the choice to rent land with an option to purchase. The preference for first renting by most of the surveyed MSFs could indicate that many very highly leveraged MSFs still experience cash flow stress despite the interest rate subsidy. A second policy implication, therefore, is that the current subsidy level, which reduces the effective starting interest rate level to about ten per cent relative to a typical five per cent current return on land, could be increased to promote access to farmland markets. Alternatively, loan terms in the next round of the scheme could be changed to require higher proportions of own equity (lower leverage levels), or to permit the deferral of principal payments, or to permit the purchase of smaller farms by creditworthy, part-time farmers. Another strategy to improve liquidity is to advise growers to limit family drawings in the early years after farmland purchase. / Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2003.

The South African (SA) Sugar Industry is committed to transformation in land ownership and supports the SA government's target to transfer 30% of freehold sugarcane land to previously disadvantaged individuals (PDls) by 2014 via the land market under the willing buyer/willing seller principle. The medium-scale farmer scheme for emerging commercial sugarcane farmers, which was introduced in 1996 to help redistribute commercial sugarcane farmland to PDIs is an important component of the SA Sugar Industry's land reform strategy. The average financial performance of emerging commercial farmers (now called New Freehold Growers or NFGs) in the SA Sugar Industry was below that of large-scale commercial farmers during 1997-2007 (real average annual net return per hectare of R390 versus R3 075 in 2007 Rand). Given that this trend raises concerns about the long-term viability of NFGs, the first aim of this study is to identify factors that distinguish between successful, less successful and unsuccessful NFGs using a stratified random sample of 96 NFGs in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) surveyed during July-November 2008. These NFGs were classified according to whether their mortgage loans were current (successful), in arrears (less successful) or in the process of legal action (unsuccessful). Student t-tests indicate that successful NFGs, on average, had statistically significantly more experience in farming sugarcane, larger farm sizes (proxied by average annual gross farm income), greater solvency and liquidity, and larger areas annually replanted to sugarcane than the less successful and unsuccessful NFGs. The successful NFGs also placed relatively more emphasis on computerized record keeping systems that can save time in conducting production and financial analyses to improve farm profitability. They also on average tended to make more use of their own financial record keeping system in addition to the services of bookkeepers, and used more risk management strategies than unsuccessful NFGs, in particular having off-farm investments and keeping cash and credit reserves. A multinomial logit model of factors affecting the sample NFGs' mortgage loan repayment status estimated that extension contact, production and financial risk management capacity, farm financial and production management ability, own record keeping and cash management, and having more sugarcane farm experience to operate larger farm sizes were key determinants of successful loan repayment. The results suggest that policy makers can promote the viability of NFGs by (1) encouraging them to manage solvency and liquidity levels and implement replanting schedules in line with industry norms (e.g. debt:asset ratio of 0.5 or lower, and the replanting of 10% of the area under cane (AUC) per annum); and (2) facilitate the transfer of adequate size farms (expected annual gross farm income can meet annual loan repayments) in commercial transactions or transactions funded via government grants to farmers who have the relevant farming experience. New Freehold Growers are also encouraged to build business relationships with industry support staff, implement good record keeping practices, and develop strategies to manage risk (e.g. off-farm investment and holding cash and credit reserves). The second aim of this study was to document the NFGs' perceptions of the scheme and industry role players in order to identify what aspects could be improved for both current and future farmers. The results suggest that most sample respondents (84%) can identify with, or have experienced the relatively low current returns (cash flow problems) usually associated with the early years after land purchase, while about 60% of the sample NFGs would have preferred to first lease their land before buying. Future NFGs, or the beneficiaries of other land reform initiatives, must be informed that an investment in land has low current returns relative to capital growth and that the annual profit from farming is low relative to the land value. The possibility of leasing could also be considered for future land transfers to NFGs or other land reform beneficiaries to help manage the liquidity constraints associated with land purchase. Ninety-nine percent of the sample NFGs felt that it was important for new farmers to have a mentor. Post-settlement support thus needs attention from industry role players, and a sustainable mentorship programme could, in part, meet this need. / Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.