In response to recent decentralization in Ethiopia, we investigated the status of and pressure exerted on Awash National Park (ANP), vis-a- vis Park resources, observed land use and land cover changes, causes of park-related conflicts, use and management role of stakeholders at federal, regional and local level and the impact of policy on sustainable resources conservation through a comparative framework of before (pre-1995) and after decentralization (post-1995). We used a combination of two black and white aerial photographs of 1975 and 1986, a satellite image of 2006, field observation, information from local communities and Geographic Information System (GIS) to generate the land use and land cover profile. We selected a total of 210 respondents by stratified random sampling, and group discussion participants and key informants using the purposive sampling technique. Direct observed participation of stakeholders, household questionnaire, and interview with key informants and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Our results showed a declining scattered bushland by a rate of 20.61km2 per year between 1972 and 1986. On the other hand, Shrub encroachment increased by 32.2 % between 1972 and 1986 and by 10.3 % (77.4 km2) during the entire study period. Grassland was the largest cover type in the area between 1986 and 2006 and expanded by 14.2 % (106.4 km2) between 1972 and 1986. The majority of respondents highlighted that the most important drivers of the observed LULC changes pre-1995 were the combined effects of the land reform policy and changes in Park boundary (size of the Park). Population growth was reported to be the main driving factor for LULC change pre-and post-1995. The continuing existence of the area as a national Park receives unreserved support from most pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. From the data we conclude that overall, decentralization in Ethiopia was not effective in terms of improving the status of Awash National Park. We recommend action should be taken in terms of reducing human and livestock pressure and to prevent and solve interest-based conflicts between stakeholder / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

The story of phosphorus began with the search for the philosopher’s stone, and centuries later the critical role of phosphorus in soil fertility and crop growth was highlighted. Eventually, phosphorus was implicated in the global environmental challenge of eutrophication. Now, we are on the brink of yet another emerging chapter in the story: global phosphorus scarcity linked to food security. Through a transdisciplinary and systemic inquiry, this thesis has analyzed, reconceptualized and synthesized the physical and institutional dimensions of global phosphorus scarcity in the context of food security, leading to a new framing, ‘phosphorus security’ to guide future work towards a more sustainable and food secure pathway. In a world which will be home to nine billion people by the middle of this century, producing enough food and other vital resources is likely to be a substantial challenge for humanity. Phosphorus, together with nitrogen and potassium, is an essential plant nutrient. It is applied to agricultural soils in fertilizers to maintain high crop yields. Phosphorus has no substitute in food production. Therefore, securing the long-term availability and accessibility of phosphorus is crucial to global food security. However the major source of phosphorus today, phosphate rock, is a non-renewable resource and high quality reserves are becoming increasingly scarce. This thesis estimates peak phosphorus to occur before 2035, after which demand will exceed supply. Phosphorus scarcity is defined by more than just physical scarcity of phosphate rock and this thesis develops five important dimensions. For example, there is a scarcity of management of phosphorus throughout the entire food production and consumption system: the global phosphorus flows analysis found that only 20% of phosphorus in phosphate rock mined for food production actually reaches the food consumed by the global population due to substantial inefficiencies and losses from mine to field to fork. There is also an economic scarcity, where for example, while all the world’s farmers need access to sufficient fertilizers, only those with sufficient purchasing power can access fertilizer markets. Institutional scarcity, such as the lack of governance structures at the international level that explicitly aim to ensure long-term availability of and access to global phosphorus resources for food production that has led to ineffective and fragmented governance of phosphorus, including a lack of: overall coordination, monitoring and feedback, clear roles and responsibilities, long-term planning and equitable distribution. Finally, geopolitical scarcity arising from 90% of the world’s remaining high-grade phosphate rock reserves being controlled by just five countries (a majority of which are subject to geopolitical tensions) can limit the availability of phosphorus on the market and raises serious ethical questions. The long-term future scenarios presented in this thesis indicate that meeting future global food demand will likely require a substantial reduction in the global demand for phosphorus through not only improved efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture, but also through changing diets and increasing efficiency in the food chain. The unavoidable demand for phosphorus could then be met through a high recovery and reuse rate of all sources of phosphorus (crop residues, food waste, manure, excreta) and other sources including some phosphate rock. A ‘hard-landing’ situation could involve further fertilizer price spikes, increased waste and pollution (including eutrophication), increased energy consumption associated with the production and trade of phosphorus fertilizers, reduced farmer access to phosphorus, reduced global crop yields and increased food insecurity. A preferred ‘soft landing’ situation will however require substantial changes to physical and institutional infrastructure, including improved governance structures at the global, national and other levels, such as new policies, partnerships and roles to bring together the food, fertilizer, agriculture, sanitation and waste sectors for a coordinated response. Finally, this thesis proposes a new global goal – phosphorus security – to be integrated in the dominant research discourses and policy debates on global food security and global environmental change. Among other criteria, phosphorus security requires that phosphorus use is decoupled from environmental degradation and that farmers’ access to phosphorus is secured.

Progress towards sustainability requires changes in our individual and collective behaviour. Yet, our fundamental understanding of behaviour in relation to environmental change remains severely limited. In particular, little attention has been given to how individual and collective behaviours respond to, and are shaped by, non-linear environmental change (such as ‘regime shifts’) and its inherent uncertainties. The thesis makes two main contributions to the literature: 1) it provides one of the first accounts of human behaviour and collective action in relation to ecological regime shifts and associated uncertainties; and 2) extends the incipient behavioural common-pool resource literature that acknowledges social-ecological dynamics and ecological complexity. The overarching aim of this thesis is to further advance an empirically grounded understanding of human behaviour in social-ecological systems. In particular, the thesis attempts to unravel critical social-ecological factors and mechanisms for the sustainability of common-pool resources. This is especially relevant for contexts in which livelihoods can be more directly threatened by regime shifts. The following methods are applied: behavioural economic experiments in the lab (with students; Papers I and II) and in the field (with small-scale fishers from four different communities in the Colombian Caribbean; Paper III), and agent-based modelling empirically informed by a subset of the lab experiments (Paper IV). Paper I tests the effect of an endogenously driven regime shift on the emergence of cooperation and sustainable resource use. Paper II tests the effect of different risk levels of such a regime shift. The regime shift in both papers has negative consequences for the productivity of the shared resource. Paper III assesses the effect of different degrees of uncertainty about a climate-induced threshold in stock dynamics on the exploitation patterns; as well as the role of social and ecological local context. Paper IV explores critical individual-level factors and processes affecting the simultaneous emergence of collective action and sustainable resource use. Results cumulatively suggest that existing scientific knowledge indicating the potential for ecological regime shifts should be communicated to affected local communities, including the remaining uncertainties, as this information can encourage collective action for sustainable resource use. Results also highlight the critical role of ecological knowledge, knowledge-sharing, perceived ecological uncertainties, and the role local contexts play for sustainable outcomes. This thesis enriches the literature on social-ecological systems by demonstrating how a behavioural experimental approach can contribute new insights relevant for sustainability. Overall, these insights indicate that, given the opportunity and the willingness of people to come together, share knowledge, exchange ideas, and build trust, potential ecological crises can encourage collective action, and uncertainties can be turned into opportunities for dealing with change in constructive ways. This provides a hopeful outlook in the face of escalating environmental change and inherent uncertainties. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript.</p>

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In response to recent decentralization in Ethiopia, we investigated the status of and pressure exerted on Awash National Park (ANP), vis-a- vis Park resources, observed land use and land cover changes, causes of park-related conflicts, use and management role of stakeholders at federal, regional and local level and the impact of policy on sustainable resources conservation through a comparative framework of before (pre-1995) and after decentralization (post-1995). We used a combination of two black and white aerial photographs of 1975 and 1986, a satellite image of 2006, field observation, information from local communities and Geographic Information System (GIS) to generate the land use and land cover profile. We selected a total of 210 respondents by stratified random sampling, and group discussion participants and key informants using the purposive sampling technique. Direct observed participation of stakeholders, household questionnaire, and interview with key informants and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Our results showed a declining scattered bushland by a rate of 20.61km2 per year between 1972 and 1986. On the other hand, Shrub encroachment increased by 32.2 % between 1972 and 1986 and by 10.3 % (77.4 km2) during the entire study period. Grassland was the largest cover type in the area between 1986 and 2006 and expanded by 14.2 % (106.4 km2) between 1972 and 1986. The majority of respondents highlighted that the most important drivers of the observed LULC changes pre-1995 were the combined effects of the land reform policy and changes in Park boundary (size of the Park). Population growth was reported to be the main driving factor for LULC change pre-and post-1995. The continuing existence of the area as a national Park receives unreserved support from most pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. From the data we conclude that overall, decentralization in Ethiopia was not effective in terms of improving the status of Awash National Park. We recommend action should be taken in terms of reducing human and livestock pressure and to prevent and solve interest-based conflicts between stakeholder / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)