Seja X um alfabeto finito ou infinito enumerável, e considere como X^n o conjunto de todas as sequências de tamanho n. No presente trabalho, nós consideramos a função Tn, definida em X^n e tomando valores entre 1 e infinito. Tn será o primeiro tempo que demora sequência de tamanho n, digamos w, em aparecer de novo sobre uma sequência infinita do processo que começa com w. Este tempo é conhecido como o tempo de retorno. Seja Sn(w) = n - Tn(w) o nosso objeto de estudo, definido também em X^n e tomando valores entre menos infinito e n-1. A função Sn foi colocada em evidência, entre outros casos, na análise estatística da Recorrência de Poincaré, e possui relação explícita com a entropia do processo. Abadi e Lambert, provaram a convergência da distribuição de Sn, quando a sequência é escolhida de acordo com a medida produto de n variáveis aleatórias independentes e identicamente distribuídas no alfabeto e como consequência, mostraram a convergência da esperança de Sn. Nosso trabalho consiste em generalizar o trabalho feito por Abadi e Lambert para processos com uma condição de dependência \\beta-mixing. / We consider the set of finite sequences of length n over a finite or countable alphabet X . We consider the function defined over X^n, Sn = n-\"the first return\". Abadi and Lambert, computed the exact distribution and the limiting distribution of the Sn when the sequence is generated by independent and identically distributed random variables. Our work consists in a generalization of the work done by Abadi and Lambert to processes that verify the \\beta-mixing condition and \\{Xn\\}_{n\\inN} takes values over finite or countable alphabet.

On considère le problème de contrôle optimal de temps minimal pour des systèmes affine et mono-entrée en dimension finie, avec conditions initiales et finales fixées, où le contrôle scalaire prend ses valeurs dans un intervalle fermé. Lors de l'application d'une méthode de tir pour résoudre ce problème, on peut rencontrer des obstacles numériques car la fonction de tir n'est pas lisse lorsque le contrôle est bang-bang. Pour ces systèmes, dans le cas bang-bang, un concept théorique de temps conjugué a été défini, toutefois les algorithmes de calcul direct sont difficiles à appliquer. En outre, les questions théoriques et pratiques de la théorie du temps conjugué sont bien connues dans le cas lisse, et des outils efficaces de mise en oeuvre sont disponibles. On propose une procédure de régularisation pour laquelle les solutions du problème de temps minimal dépendent d'un paramètre réel positif suffisamment petit et sont définis par des fonctions lisses en temps, ce qui facilite l'application de la méthode de tir simple. Sous des hypothèses convenables, nous prouvons un résultat de convergence forte des solutions du problème régularisé vers la solution du problème initial, lorsque le paramètre réel tend vers zéro. Le calcul des temps conjugués pour les trajectoires localement optimales du problème régularisé est standard. Nous prouvons, sous des hypothèses appropriées, la convergence du premier temps conjugué du problème régularisé vers le premier temps conjugué du problème de contrôle bang-bang initial, quand le paramètre réel tend vers zéro. Ainsi, on obtient une procédure algorithmique efficace pour calculer les temps conjugués dans le cas bang-bang. / In this thesis we consider a minimal time control problem for single-input control-affine systems in finite dimension with fixed initial and final conditions, where the scalar control take values on a closed interva1. When applying a shooting method for solving this problem, one may encounter numerical obstacles due to the fact that the shooting function is non smooth whenever the control is bang-bang. For these systems a theoretical concept of conjugate time has been defined in the bang-bang case, however direct algorithms of computation are difficult to apply. Besides, theoretical and practical issues for conjugate time theory are well known in the smooth case, and efficient implementation tools are available. We propose a regularization procedure for which the solutions of the minimal time problem depend on a small enough real positive parameter and are defined by smooth functions with respect to the time variable, facilitating the application of a single shooting method. Under appropriate assumptions, we prove a strong convergence result of the solutions of the regularized problem towards the solution of the initial problem, when the real parameter tends to zero. The conjugate times computation of the locally optimal trajectories for the regularized problem falls into the standard theory. We prove, under appropriate assumptions, the convergence of the first conjugate time of the regularized problem towards the first conjugate time of the initial bang-bang control problem, when the real parameter tends to zero. As a byproduct, we obtain an efficient algorithmic way to compute conjugate times in the bang-bang case.

Esta pesquisa se propõe a realizar uma análise das representações da natureza encontradas nas obras de alguns cronistas e viajantes do Brasil colonial e averiguar seus fundamentos teóricos. / The purpose of this research is to analyse the representations of nature found in the works of some cronists and voyagers during Brazil colonial period and to verify their theoretical bases.

Emergency response times have been shown to be directly correlated with mortality rates of out-of-hospital patients. Studies have been conducted to show the relationship between time and mortality rates until patients receive the proper treatment. With more cardiac arrests and other life threatening illnesses occurring in the United States, more emergency calls will be required as well. As of today, technological advancements have been made to reduce response times, but human factors still require certain procedures, causing delays in the run time and increasing the rate of mortality. Here we show the results of emergency response times with the market penetration of connected and autonomous vehicles. With connected and autonomous vehicles, the average time emergency vehicles spend on the roadways can be significantly decreased. Safety procedures with human drivers can be eliminated, giving the emergency vehicle a proper right-of-way through virtual emergency lanes and removing the need to slow down and avoid vehicles at intersections or during periods of heavy congestion. Our results show a three minute decrease in response time under full market penetration of the technology, reducing the mortality rate and increasing the potential to save lives.

Pilots are subject to varying levels of stress, workload, and fatigue during long flights. During different phases of a commercial flight, pilots are engaged in multiple tasks which include going through checklists, checking conditions at their destination, communicating with Air Traffic Control and dealing with other flight related tasks. The amount of work varies from the earlier stages until the end of the flight. It is not well understood how changes in the amount of workload can affect a pilot's ability to engage with important tasks that relate to safety of flight. The work shown in this thesis focused on the level of engagement displayed by flight crew as a function of level of workload. The principal hypothesis was that very low levels of workload may lead to crew disengagement and sub-optimal levels of performance. The degree to which pilots remain alert and are fatigued during a commercial flight is also not established in a concrete way.

Due to the steady increased in public transportation demand, there is a need to provide more desirable and user-friendly transit systems. Typically, the public transportation timetables are modeled as an assignment problem, which often has objectives such as reducing the cost of operation, minimizing waiting time between transfer points or improving the quality of performance. This research considers the problem of developing synchronized timetables for bus transit systems with fixed routes when a waiting time limit exist at each transfer stops, for the passengers making connections. The objective of this research is to have maximum number of simultaneous arrivals. Different to previous studies, a simultaneous arrival' has been defined as an arrival of buses of different routes at a transfer point such that the time between these arrivals do not exceed the passenger waiting time range associated with the transfer stop. In other words, at each node, an upper bound and a lower bound are set for the arrivals of two buses and these buses are run within this allowable window. The heuristic developed has been modeled as a mixed integer linear programming problem and applied to some real life problems to evaluate the outcomes. The total number of synchronizations obtained by the model was compared to the maximum possible simultaneous arrivals at each node. Results show that a larger number of simultaneous arrivals are obtained when the waiting time ranges are relaxed. Finally some important applications of the proposed model compared to the existing models are presented.

PROBLEM INVESTIGATED: Methodological issues and policy implications arising from the application of interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to assess the impact of Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS) subsidisation policies on drug utilisation in Australia. PROCEDURES FOLLOWED: A critical review of methodological issues relating to the application and analysis of ITS designs was undertaken. This included an examination of drug utilisation data sources in Australia. The PBS policies examined were: (i) the introduction of copayments in 1990; (ii) the introduction of re-supply limits in 1994 and (iii) the introduction of a form of reference pricing in 1998. Monthly aggregate drug utilisation data was obtained from the Australian Department of Health and Ageing. Segmented regression analyses incorporating autocorrelated errors were implemented and statistical diagnostics applied to ensure correct ITS model specification. Alternative seasonal modelling approaches were compared. RESULTS OBTAINED: The copayment ITS evaluation found that while these copayments produced a reduction in the utilisation of essential and discretionary medications, this effect was stronger for discretionary drugs. An unintended policy effect was a large anticipatory increase in drug utilisation during the month prior to the copayments. Repatriation PBS data was also utilised due to the limited number of pre-intervention data points in the Community series. The re-supply limit ITS evaluation found that the 20-day rule markedly reduced the size of the seasonal increase during the month of December. However, logistic regression analyses showed that the size of this reduction attenuated over time, highlighting the need to consider alternative analysis strategies when applying a ITS approach. The reference pricing ITS evaluation found that this policy had achieved its drug utilisation objectives for H2RAs and ACE Inhibitors. However with regard to CCBs, no increase in the utilisation of benchmark priced drug was apparent, which probably reflected clinical concerns at the time about the safety of these drugs. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Well implemented ITS analyses provide a valuable tool for evaluating the impact of PBS subsidisation policy change on drug utilisation in Australia. As with any methodology, however, different design and data integrity issues will affect the quality of information provided.

[No abstract supplied with this thesis - The first page (of three) of the Introduction follows] ¶ This thesis is largely concerned with the changing representations of 'boundary' or 'ideal' points of a pseudo-Riemannian manifold -- and our primary interest is in the space-times of general relativity. In particular, we are interested in the following question: What assumptions about the 'nature' of 'portions' of a certain 'ideal boundary' construction (essentially the 'abstract boundary' of Scott and Szekeres (1994)) allow us to define precisely the topological type of these 'portions', i.e., to show that different representations of this ideal boundary, corresponding to different embeddings of the manifold into others, have corresponding 'portions' that are homeomorphic? ¶ Certain topological properties of these 'portions' are preserved, even allowing for quite unpleasant properties of the metric (Fama and Scott 1995). These results are given in Appendix D, since they are not used elsewhere and, as well as representing the main portion of work undertaken under the supervision of Scott, which deserves recognition, may serve as an interesting example of the relative ease with which certain simple results about the abstract boundary can be obtained. ¶ An answer to a more precisely formulated version of this question appears very diffcult in general. However, we can give a rather complete answer in certain cases, where we dictate certain 'generalised regularity' requirements for our embeddings, but make no demands on the precise functional form of our metrics apart from these. For example, we get a complete answer to our question for abstract boundary sets which do not 'wiggle about' too much -- i.e., they satisfy a certain Lipschitz condition -- and through which the metric can be extended in a manner which is not required to be differentiable (C[superscript1]), but is continuous and non--degenerate. We allow similar freedoms on the interior of the manifold, thereby bringing gravitational wave space-times within our sphere of discussion. In fact, in the course of developing these results in progressively greater generality, we get, almost 'free', certain abilities to begin looking at geodesic structure on quite general pseudo-Riemannian manifolds. ¶ It is possible to delineate most of this work cleanly into two major parts. Firstly, there are results which use classical geometric constructs and can be given for the original abstract boundary construction, which requires differentiability of both manifolds and metrics, and which we summarise below. The second -- and significantly longer -- part involves extensions of those constructs and results to more general metrics.

In this thesis we develop and use a continuum random walk framework to solve problems that are usually studied using a discrete random walk on a discrete lattice. Problems studied include; the time it takes for a random walker to be absorbed at a trap on a fractal lattice, the calculation of the spectral dimension for several different classes of networks, the calculation of the density of states for a multi-layered Bethe lattice and the relationship between diffusion exponents and a resistivity exponent that occur in relevant power laws. The majority of the results are obtained by deriving an expression for a Laplace transformed Green’s function or first passage time, and then using Tauberian theorems to find the relevant asymptotic behaviour. The continuum framework is established by studying the diffusion equation on a 1-d bar with non-homogeneous boundary conditions. The result is extended to model diffusion on networks through linear algebra. We derive the transformation linking the Green’s functions and first passage time results in the continuum and discrete settings. The continuum method is used in conjunction with renormalization techniques to calculate the time taken for a random walker to be absorbed at a trap on a fractal lattice and also to find the spectral dimension of new classes of networks. Although these networks can be embedded in the d- dimensional Euclidean plane, they do not have a spectral dimension equal to twice the ratio of the fractal dimension and the random walk dimension when the random walk on the network is transient. The networks therefore violate the Alexander-Orbach law. The fractal Einstein relationship (a relationship relating a diffusion exponent to a resistivity exponent) also does not hold on these networks. Through a suitable scaling argument, we derive a generalised fractal Einstein relationship which holds for our lattices and explains anomalous results concerning transport on diffusion limited aggregates and Eden trees.

<p>I denna avhandling studerar vi nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för svag konvergens av första-sällan-händelsetider för semi-Markovska processer.</p><p>I introduktionen ger vi nödvändiga grundläggande definitioner och beskrivningar av modeller som betraktas i avhandlingen, samt ger några exempel på situationer i vilka metoder av första-sällan-händelsetider kan vara lämpliga att använda. Dessutom analyserar vi publicerade resultat om asymptotiska problem för stokastiska funktionaler som definieras på semi-Markovska processer.</p><p>I artikel A betraktar vi första-sällan-händelsetider för semi-Markovska processer med en ändlig mängd av lägen. Vi ger också en sammanfattning av våra resultat om nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för svag konvergens, samt diskuterar möjliga tillämpningar inom aktuarie-området.</p><p>I artikel B redovisar vi i detalj de resultat som annonseras i artikel A och bevisen för dem. Vi ger också nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för svag konvergens av första-sällan-händelsetider för semi-Markovska processer med en ändlig mängd av lägen i ett icke-triangulärt tillstånd. Dessutom beskriver vi med hjälp av Laplacetransformationen klassen av alla möjliga gränsfördelningar.</p><p>I artikel C studerar vi villkor av svag konvergens av flöden av sällan-händelser i ett icke-triangulärt tillstånd. Vi formulerar nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för konvergens, och beskriver klassen av alla möjliga gränsflöden. Vi tillämpar också våra resultat i asymptotisk analys av icke-ruin-sannolikheten för störda riskprocesser.</p><p>I artikel D ger vi nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för svag konvergens av första-sällan-händelsetider för semi-Markovska rocesser med en ändlig mängd av lägen i ett triangulärt tillstånd, samt beskriver klassen av alla möjliga gränsfördelningar. Resultaten utvidgar slutsatser från artikel B till att gälla för ett allmänt triangulärt tillstånd.</p><p>I artikel E ger vi nödvändiga och tillräckliga villkor för svag konvergens av flöden av sällan-händelser för semi-Markovska processer i ett triangulärt tillstånd. Detta generaliserar resultaten från artikel C till att beskriva ett allmänt triangulärt tillstånd. Vidare ger vi tillämpningar av våra resultat på asymptotiska problem av störda riskprocesser och till kösystemen med snabb service.</p> / <p>In this thesis we study necessary and sufficient conditions for weak convergence of first-rare-event times for semi-Markov processes, we describe the class of all possible limit distributions, and give the applications of the results to risk theory and queueing systems.</p><p>In paper <b>A</b>, we consider first-rare-event times for semi-Markov processes with a finite set of states, and give a summary of our results concerning necessary and sufficient conditions for weak convergence of first-rare-event times and their actuarial applications.</p><p>In paper <b>B</b>, we present in detail results announced in paper <b>A</b> as well as their proofs. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for weak convergence of first-rare-event times for semi-Markov processes with a finite set of states in non-triangular-array mode and describe the class of all possible limit distributions in terms of their Laplace transforms.</p><p>In paper <b>C</b>, we study the conditions for weak convergence for flows of rare events for semi-Markov processes with a finite set of states in non-triangular array mode. We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions of convergence and describe the class of all possible limit stochastic flows. In the second part of the paper, we apply our results to the asymptotical analysis of non-ruin probabilities for perturbed risk processes.</p><p>In paper <b>D</b>, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of first-rare-event times for semi-Markov processes with a finite set of states in triangular array mode as well as describing the class of all possible limit distributions. The results of paper <b>D</b> extend results obtained in paper <b>B</b> to a general triangular array mode.</p><p>In paper <b>E</b>, we give the necessary and sufficient conditions for weak convergence for the flows of rare events for semi-Markov processes with a finite set of states in triangular array case. This paper generalizes results obtained in paper <b>C</b> to a general triangular array mode. In the second part of the paper, we present applications of our results to asymptotical problems of perturbed risk processes and to queueing systems with quick service</p>