International air transport is a commercial business by nature but carries a political significance. It has been regulated under the Chicago regime which requires the sovereignty governments to negotiate and determine how airlines engage in the transnational operations regardless of the market demand. Policy makers will have to take into account all factors, whether at international, domestic, institutional and individual levels, in determining to what extent the market should be liberalised so as to protect their national interest, optimise the opportunities for their industry and society as a whole, while at the same time promote competition and facilitate international trade. Despite the vast research that has been done on the liberalisation of international air transport as well as China‘s aviation policy and its industry, little is known about the considerations of Chinese government when formulating its international air transport policy, e.g. what are the variables that have influenced the country‘s policy making process that leads to the policy per se. The focus of the existing literature fails to treat China‘s international air transport policy as a subject matter for an objective and comprehensive analysis, but rather takes the policy itself as an external stimulus that drives the radical changes of the industry. Consequently, China‘s policymaking process with respect to international air transport remains a black box and its international behaviour is considered unpredictable. Applying the Micro-Macro Linkage Approach to three case studies, i.e. China-the US, China-the Netherlands and China-the UK markets, this research analyses China‘s liberalisation policy with respect to international air transport. By examining the data gathered through qualitative methods such as historical files and record, observations, and interviews with those who have participated in the process of policymaking and have been personally involved in bilateral air services negotiations, this research aims at identifying the factors that have had an impact on the country‘s policymaking process, establishing whether these factors are evolving over the years and determining how they are interacting with each other in leading to the policy outcome, hence, shedding light on the country‘s international trade policymaking and its international behaviour. The research has revealed that China‘s international air transport policymaking is both a top-down and bottom-up process with industry regulator being the primary initiator, formulator and administrator of the industry-specific liberalisation policy. Its decision making process has become more transparent, plural, open for and subject to both external and internal influences at all levels. International environment including international conventions, laws and regulations have formed a framework within which the country has to operate to develop its overall national policy. Bilateral political and economic relationship has played a pivotal role in shaping the country‘s policy on that specific country-pair market. Domestic considerations such as national interest, benefits to the society, industry and consumers as a whole are the fundamental concerns in determining the policy scope, i.e. to what extent the market should be liberalised and the pace of such liberalisation. Stakeholders are increasingly proactive in its involvement in the policymaking process in an attempt to influence the policy makers to their own optimal benefits. Institutions and personal characteristics do shape individual policy makers‘ mindset and perceptions but only to the extent of affecting the negotiation outcome on the bilateral country-pair markets. These factors have been evolving over the years and are time- and circumstance-constrained, namely, some factors may function at one occasion at a certain time but not necessarily at another. This research is a meaningful endeavour in attempting to understand China‘s policymaking process with respect to international air transport as an international trade in services, which has just received growing interest in both academia and industry practitioners in recent years. It will contribute to the knowledge of the study of China and the study of international air transport at large.

一、研究目的 去年以來，政府開放探親，隨著探親熱潮，海崍兩岸四十年來壁壘分明的態勢已漸有 改變，尤其是雙方透過第三國進行的轉口貿易已有日益增加的現象，在新台幣對美元 持續升值，國內廠商出口日益感受沈重壓力下，大陸市場已成為國內企業界注目的焦 點，這對海峽將來會造成什麼樣的影響？此等問題引發了本文研究的動機。本文主要 目的有三﹕（一）從台灣產業結構來探討大陸市場，今後在台灣經濟發展過程中，將 扮演何種角色。（二）現存轉口貿易型態的利弊得失。（三）從轉口貿易看海峽兩岸 的未來。 三、參考資料 本文主要參考資料包括﹕ （一）海峽兩岸已出版的經濟資料及文獻。 （一）台灣上市公司公開說明及財務資料。 （三）英文香港及日本報刊資枓。 三、研究方法 本文係針對台海兩岸經結構加以比較深入分析，全文分六章，第一章緒言，說明研究 主題背景、動機、目的、範圍與方法。第二章評述海峽轉口貿易的理論依據。第三章 針對現存轉口貿易的內涵及海峽兩岸經貿發展的階段加以分析比較。第四章探討現存 轉口貿易利弊得失。第五章從比較利益的觀點看轉口市場的未來，以及轉口貿易對海 峽兩岸未來關係的影響。第六章結論與建議。