Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1977 / Includes bibliographical references. / by Michael K. Martin. / M.S. / M.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management

Regression analysis has been used in previous research to predict the number of bicycles registered by a bicycle counter. An important step to improve the prediction is to include a long-term trend curve estimate as part of the formulation of the regression target variable. In this way, it is possible to use the deviation from the trend curve estimate instead of the absolute number of bicycles as target variable in the regression problem formulation. This can help capturing the factors that are difficult, or even impossible, to model as input variables in the regression model, for example, larger infrastructural changes. This study aims to evaluate a regression spline-based approach to enhance the prediction accuracy of bicycle counter data. This will be achieved by formulating a regression problem, generating trend curve estimates using regression splines, and evaluating the resulted curves using cross validation on a set of chosen regression algorithms. We illustrate our approach by applying it on a time series recorded by a bicycle counter in Malmö city, Sweden. For the considered data set, our experimental results show that the spline trend curve estimate with knots between 12-19, which has been fitted to the time series, gives the best prediction. It also shows that the use of ensemble methods leads to better prediction, where the G.B. Regressor shows best performance with 19 knots.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第19689号 / 工博第4144号 / 新制||工||1639(附属図書館) / 32725 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 寶 馨, 教授 立川 康人, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Rezension zu: Bücker, Diana, Lucke, Ulrike, Hofhues, Sandra, Dander, Valentin, Rau, Franco Rohland, Holger, van Treeck, Timo, Gumpert, Andrea (Hrsg.) (2017): „Trendy, hip und cool“: Auf dem Weg zu einer innovativen Hochschule?. Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann Verlag. Druck ISBN: 9783763957903; 34,90 EUR E-Book ISBN: 9783763957927; 34,90 EUR

There is a debate within the field of policy studies whether disasters are drivers of policy reforms, as encapsulated by the disaster-reform hypothesis. Since the disaster rate for extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change, it is of high relevance to study if these disasters have any effect on climate polices. The aim of this thesis is therefore to empirically explore if there are any discernible global trends of disasters preceding a subsequent increase in Climate resilient development (CRD) policies and to show the variation of “effect lag” between income groups and regions. The research design operationalises the most severe disasters through “milestone events” and creates a CRD index by the arithmetical mean of sustainable development, climate adaptation, and climate mitigation. The results show a proportional share of countries experienced an effect lag of 1-3 years after their milestone events, while a large incidence of HIC and LMIC countries had a lag of 4-6 years. This explorative thesis has provided a research design and results on CRD, previously undescribed, that suggests several pathways for future studies such as interesting samples for case studies and alternative designs to the operationalisation of concepts.

This study is a spatiotemporal analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in school-age children (5-18 years) in Tennessee, from 2020-03-19 to 2022-02-12. Trend Analysis, Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, and a time series revealed three significant waves in both age groups. Therefore, Change Point Detection at the county level was completed using six defined change points to identify the wax and wane of the three COVID-19 waves. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis grouped counties with similar change points into six clusters. No spatial pattern was observed in distribution of the six clusters, however, when each change point was evaluated separately, spatial autocorrelation was present, showing that timing of the individual waves was clustered in space. This research describes appropriate spatioanalytical methods useful at different stages of a pandemic and could inform policymaking by public health officials.

<p> </p> <p>This dissertation researched the scope of mathematics achievement disparities in the United States and how these disparities can be minimized through a self-efficacy lens. To answer pertinent research questions with data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 2019 mathematics assessment in Grades 4, 8, and 12, gap analyses, two-level cross-sectional multilevel modeling, and two-level structural equation modeling were conducted. The discoveries demonstrated that the excellence gaps in U.S. in mathematics achievement by race/ethnicity, gender, NSLP, ELL, and IEP persisted and widened from Grade 4 to Grade 8 yet decreased at Grade 12. Self-efficacy was a noteworthy predictor of students’ mathematics achievement, displaying large effect sizes across grades. The disparities in mathematics achievement by student subgroups lessened when students' self-efficacy was equal. Moreover, self-efficacy mediated the relationships between mastery-approach goals, performance-approach goals, interest, persistence in learning and achievement. Additional results demonstrated that the status of being racially/ethnically underrepresented students partially moderated the connections between motivational variables and mathematics achievement. School locale and the percentage of underrepresented students significantly impacted students’ achievement. This dissertation underscores the importance of self-efficacy in closing mathematics achievement gaps and improving students’ mathematics achievement. </p>

Today, there are several arguments about the future of the workplace and how each firm should tackle these questions. The development has made significant progress in the workplace, but there is still room for improvement. This industrial design project aims to address issues concerning the future workplace,with the outcome being furniture. The project will be carried out using design-related processes and methods, where future forecasting and trend analyses will play a major partin the project’s conclusion. The project is in collaboration with EFG, the leading European provider of interior design solutions for commercial businesses and public events. Their focus is on sustainable, Scandinavian-inspired items. Products that have undergone rigorous testingto ensure quality. Furniture that encourages wiser methods of working, meeting, andsocializing. Every business day

[pt] Esta tese analisa a origem e o uso do termo tendência no campo do Design de Moda ao longo do século XIX e XX. Reflete sobre as noções difundidas e atreladas ao termo, assim como, sobre os mitos e seus agentes de legitimação no Design de Moda. Conclui, refletindo sobre os desdobramentos atuais do termo e sua apropriação no contemporâneo. / [en] This thesis examines the origin and use of the trend word in the field of Fashion Design during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Reflects on the notions disclosed about the term, as well as myths and their agents of legitimation into Fashion Design. It concludes by reflecting on the current appropriation of the term in the contemporary.

Characterizing streamflow trends is important for water resources management. Streamflow conditions, and trends thereof, are critical drivers of all aspects of stream geomorphology, sediment and nutrient transport, and ecological processes. Using the non-parametric modified Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed streamflow trends from 1996 to 2022 for the Southern Appalachian (SA) region of the U.S. The forested uplands of the SA receive high amounts of rain and act as a "water tower" for the surrounding lowland area, both of which have experienced higher than average population growth and urban development. For the total of 127 USGS gages with continuous streamflow measurements, we also evaluated precipitation and land change rates and patterns within the upstream contributing areas. Statistical methods (i.e., generalized linear models) were then used to assess any linkages between land cover change (LCC) and streamflow trends. Our results show that 42 drainage areas are experiencing increasing trends in their precipitation, and 1 is experiencing a negative trend. A total of 71 drainage areas are experiencing increasing trends in either their annual streamflow minimums, maximums, medians, or variability, with some experiencing changes in multiple. From our models, it is suggested that agricultural expansion is associated with increasing minimum streamflow trends, but increasing precipitation is also positively linked. With this information, water managers would be aware of which areas are experiencing changes in streamflow amounts from LCC or precipitation and could then apply this in planning and predictions. / Master of Science / Water availability is important for resources management. Streamflow is a measure of available surface water and is an important component in the hydrological cycle. Using the non-parametric modified Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed streamflow trends from 1996 to 2022 for the Southern Appalachian (SA) region of the U.S. The forested uplands of the SA receive high amounts of rain and act as a "water tower" for the surrounding lowland area, both of which have experienced higher than average population growth and city expansion. For the total of 127 USGS gages with continuous streamflow measurements, we also evaluated precipitation and land cover change rates within the area upstream of the gage (or drainage/contributing area). Statistical methods (i.e., generalized linear models) were then used to assess any linkages between land cover change (LCC) and streamflow trends. Our results show that 42 drainage areas are experiencing increasing trends in their precipitation, and 1 is experiencing a negative trend. A total of 71 drainage areas are experiencing increasing trends in either their annual streamflow minimums, maximums, medians, or variability, with some experiencing changes in multiple. From our models, it is suggested that agricultural expansion is associated with increasing minimum streamflow trends, but increasing precipitation is also positively linked. With this information, water managers would be aware of which areas are experiencing changes in streamflow amounts from LCC or precipitation and could then apply this in planning and predictions.