This dissertation spans topics related to global trade, oil prices, optimum currency areas, the eurozone, monetary independence, capital controls and the international monetary policy trilemma. It consists of four chapters and three essays. Chapter one provides a brief summary of all three essays. Chapter two investigates the impact of oil prices on global trade. It is concluded that when oil prices increase, countries start trading relatively more with their neighbors. As an application this chapter provides a new estimate of the eurozone effect on trade. Chapter three continues to study the eurozone and asks whether it is an optimum currency area using the member countries’ desired monetary policies. It is concluded that Greece, Spain, and Ireland have desired policies that are the least compatible with the common euro policy and are therefore the least likely to have formed an optimum currency area with the euro. Chapter four provides a new methodology in testing the international trilemma hypothesis. It is concluded that the trilemma holds in the context of the Asian countries.

Existing estimations of implicit inflation target are primarily based on the assumption of parameter stability over time horizon. This work relaxes this assumption and proposes alternative framework based on time-varying parameter model. We aim on behaviour of European Central Bank in order to compare its official proclamations of price stability levels with our implicit estimations. We will also examine how two pillar strategy of European Central Bank is practically used.

This Diploma thesis analyses monetary policy management in USA during the passed decade and proposes some changes regarding the future decision making of central banks. In particular, a considerable deviation of the actual monetary policy from the Taylor rule right before the housing bubble was proved by an econometric model. As a consequence, too low interest rates in this period caused significant higher magnitude of real estate prices. However, it can be said that monetary policy was not the main cause of the creation of this bubble. Regarding the FED's reaction on financial crisis, new perspectives are provided. According to this study, credit risk is thought to have been the main cause of financial stress. This is in contradiction with FED's measures that were mainly focused on lack of liquidity in financial markets. Last but not least, this thesis argues that nowadays, international development should be more reflected in monetary policy decision making.

Abstract Based on the Romer and Romer (1989) methodology this paper analyzes behavior of the US Federal Reserve System (FED) and the Czech National Bank (CNB) during the recent crisis. It explores minutes and press releases from the meetings of the Bank Board of the CNB and the Federal Open Market Committee of the FED, i.e. on one hand from the side of a small open economy that has been hit mainly through decline in foreign demand, on the other from the side of a big closed economy, in which the recent crisis has originated. It compares reaction in interest rate and adequacy of unconventional measures with a prediction of a simple 'Taylor rule' (Taylor, 1993) and tries to evaluate the adequacy of the overall reaction of mentioned central banks to the crisis.

The construct social impact has been shaping debates and supporting decision making in many segments of society. From research agendas in academia to the missions of corporations, social impact is easily presented as one of the centers of concern. Despite all this relevance, little is known about social impact\'s conceptual and paradigmatic approaches that frame the social impact academic research agenda and, similarly, the meaning-making processes that lead academics and practitioners\' understanding of social impact. This thesis fills this gap in three parts: first, by characterizing the academic research agenda on social impact over the years and building a snapshot of its paradigmatic orientation; second, by studying the academic discourse to understand the academic meaning-making processes of the social impact concept; third, by analyzing the discourse of practitioners from the Brazilian social finance ecosystem to unveil regularities and differences on their processes of signification of social impact and how these meanings affect their practices. To characterize the academic research agenda on social impact, I use bibliometric techniques and structured literature review. The contributions of this characterization are both the methodology applied and discussions on how social impact studies can advance. I show that research on social impact is rapidly expanding and integrate insights from environmental, social and economic related areas. Besides its interdisciplinary trait, the social impact research is mostly of positivist nature, especially interested in assessment. These results inform how social impact research can advance and proposes more subjective inquiries to complement the positivist studies, as more comprehensive approaches increase the potential for integrating scientific knowledge into decision making. To address the need for interpretative studies about social impact, I analyze the discourse of academic literature on social impact. To this end, I apply the social constructivist lenses and the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse (SKAD). The analysis shows that, at least, three different classifications of social impact emerge from the academic discursive construction: 1) social impact as a dynamic force; 2) social impact as a side-effect of development; and 3) social impact as a performance metric. Besides some expected differences across different research fields, I also observe regularities: social impact is perceived as measurable, multifaceted and interaction-dependent. Finally, these uncovered regularities, particularly in works related to social entrepreneurship that construct social impact as a metric of performance, puts social impact as the key concept that connects the actors in these scenarios. Thus, I also apply social constructivist lenses and SKAD to gain insights on the construction of social impact by Brazilian impact investors and social entrepreneurs. In summary, I find that differences in the meaning-making process of social impact influence the way in which social problems are understood, as well as the designing of solutions and, consequently, the metrics to assess such solutions. Also, I observe how different meaning-makings of social impact shape investor-investee relationships. This thesis concludes with guidelines on how future academic research, social impact investors and social entrepreneurs can benefit from the important aspects uncovered through the analysis of their discourses. / O construto impacto social tem moldado os debates e apoiando a tomada de decisões em muitos segmentos da sociedade. Desde agendas de pesquisa acadêmica até às missões das corporações, impacto social é colocado como um dos centros de interesse. Apesar da relevância, pouco se conhece sobre as abordagens conceituais e paradigmáticas da agenda de pesquisas acadêmicas sobre o tema impacto social, ou como sobre como acadêmicos e profissionais constroem diferentes entendimentos de impacto social. Esta tese preenche essa lacuna em três estágios: primeiro, caracterizando a agenda de pesquisa acadêmica sobre o impacto social ao longo dos anos e construindo um retrato de sua orientação paradigmática; segundo, estudando o discurso acadêmico para compreender como a comunidade acadêmica constrói significados de impacto social; terceiro, analisando o discurso de atores do ecossistema brasileiro de finanças sociais para desvelar seus processos de significação do termo impacto social, bem como os efeitos desses significados em suas práticas. Para caracterizar a agenda de pesquisa acadêmica sobre impacto social, eu utilizo técnicas bibliométricas e revisão estruturada da literatura. Eu mostro que a pesquisa sobre impacto social está se expandindo rapidamente e integra contribuições de diferentes áreas de pesquisa. Além de seu traço interdisciplinar, a pesquisa de impacto social é majoritariamente de natureza positivista, especialmente interessada em avaliação. Esses resultados informam como a pesquisa de impacto social pode avançar e propõe lentes de pesquisa mais interpretativas para complementar os estudos positivistas e aumentar o potencial de integração do conhecimento científico na tomada de decisão. Como um primeiro passo para preencher a lacuna de estudos interpretativos sobre impacto social, eu analiso o discurso da literatura acadêmica sobre impacto social. Para tanto, aplico as lentes do construtivismo social e da Sociologia do Conhecimento Aplicada do Discurso (SKAD). A análise mostra que, pelo menos, três classificações diferentes de impacto social emergem da construção discursiva acadêmica: 1) o impacto social como uma força dinâmica; 2) impacto social como efeito colateral do desenvolvimento; e 3) impacto social como uma métrica de desempenho. Além de algumas diferenças esperadas em diferentes campos de pesquisa, também observo regularidades: o impacto social é percebido como mensurável, multifacetado e dependente de interação entre agentes. Finalmente, essas regularidades descobertas, particularmente em trabalhos relacionados ao empreendedorismo social que constroem o impacto social como uma métrica de desempenho, colocam o impacto social como o conceito-chave que conecta os atores nesse cenário. Assim, eu também aplico as lentes do construtivismo social e SKAD para entender como se dá a construção do impacto social por investidores de impacto e empreendedores sociais brasileiros. Em resumo, percebo que as diferenças no processo de construção de significado de impacto social influenciam a maneira como os problemas sociais são compreendidos, bem como a concepção de soluções e, consequentemente, as métricas para avaliar tais soluções. Além disso, observo como os diferentes significados do impacto social modelam as relações entre investidor e investido. Esta tese conclui com orientações sobre como futuros pesquisadores, investidores de impacto social e empreendedores sociais podem se beneficiar dos aspectos descobertos através da análise de seus discursos.

[pt] Esta tese consiste de três ensaios sobre política monetária. O primeiro investiga o problema de endogeneidade relacionado a estimação de regras de política monetária. O estimador de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários gera estimativas viesadas e inconsistentes devido ao problema de endogeneidade. O uso de Método Generalizados dos Momentos (MGM) tem sido defendido como uma maneira eficiente de eliminar o viés. Nós usamos um modelo Novo Keynesiano de três equações para mostrar analiticamente que o viés de endogeneidade é uma função da fração da variância das variáveis contabilizadas pelo choque monetário. Se os choques monetários explicam apenas uma pequena fração das variações da inflação e do hiato do produto, então o viés de endogeneidade é pequeno. Nós então usamos métodos de Monte Carlo para mostrar que este resultado sobrevive em modelos econômicos mais complexos. No segundo artigo nós estimamos um modelo dinâmico estocástico de equilíbrio geral para avaliar os efeitos de forward guidance em um ambiente em que o prêmio de risco varia no tempo. Nós avaliamos os efeitos de forward guidance sobre a curva de juros e documentamos como choques de news impactam as variáveis macroeconômicas. Os resultados mostram que forward guidance tem impacto limitado na macroeconomia. Além disso, nossos resultados sugerem que o forward guidance puzzle não pode ser eliminado mesmo em um ambiente no qual forward guidance tem papel limitado nas taxas de juros mais longas. O terceiro artigo explora informações das variações dos juros para identificar choques monetários de news em um modelo macro-financeiro dinâmico. Nós permitimos variação no prêmio de risco e correlação entre os choques de news em um modelo restrito à taxa nominal de juros igual a zero. Apresentamos evidências de que o uso de métodos de máxima verossimilhança, combinado com modelos dinâmicos, não é suficiente para identificar os choques de news. Esta falha está associada com a ausência de mecanismos mais sofisticados para lidar com os movimentos da curva de juros durante o período recente de recessão econômica. / [en] This thesis consists of three essays on monetary policy. The first investigates the endogeneity problem related to monetary policy rules estimation. Ordinary Least Square estimator generates biased and inconsistent estimates due to endogeneity. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has been used on the pretext of eliminating the bias. We show analytically in the 3-equation New Keynesian model that the asymptotic bias is a function of the fraction of the variance of variables accounted for by monetary policy shocks. Since the monetary policy shocks explain only a small fraction of inflation and the output gap, hence, the endogeneity bias is small. We use Monte Carlo methods to show that this result survives in larger DSGE models. In the second article we estimate a medium-scale DSGE model to assess the effects of forward guidance in a framework with endogenous time-varying price of risk. We investigate how the forward guidance impact the term structure of interest rates, and document how different monetary policy news can impact macroeconomic variables. We find that forward guidance, through isolated news shocks, has limited impact on long term rates. Also, anticipated and surprise shocks have similar effects on bond yields as the economy is not restricted by the ZLB. Further, our results suggest that the forward guidance puzzle cannot be eliminated even within a framework in which forward guidance has limited impact on long term rates. The third essay exploits information from changes in yield curve to identify monetary news shocks in a macro-financial DSGE model. We allow a timevarying term premium and zero lower bound (ZLB) constraints. Although the DSGE econometric literature has argued in favor of the likelihood-based methods to identify and estimate the anticipated components of exogenous innovations, we show evidence that this approach, in combination with a standard New Keynesian DSGE model, does not provide a satisfactory estimation of the recent course of forward guidance shocks. This failure is associated with the absence of a richer mechanism to deal with the yield curve in the the recent recession.

The Taylor rule and its variants played a prominent role in the monetary policy discussion among theoreticians and practitioners for more almost two decades. The purpose of this thesis is to assess on the applicability of the simple instrument rules such as a classic Taylor's rule to the Czech economic environment which can be described as a small open economy with banking market specifically skewed by excess liquidity. The applicability is evaluated based on the variants of the Taylor rule and their effectiveness in describing the monetary policy of the central bank. The results of the models presented in this thesis are ambiguous. Traditional specification of the Taylor's rule is clearly unsuccessful in describing the behaviour of the Czech National Bank. However, if the models are altered to their historical variants containing only the information accessible at the time of decision making, their robustness and explanatory value increase significantly. Taking interest rate smoothing and exchange rate into consideration further improves the models. The policy behaviour of the Czech National Bank can be best described by the historical model with the one-year-ahead inflation prognosis, output gap, exchange rate and lagged target interest rate as explanatory variables. One of interesting results of this model is that the output gap does not play important role in the Czech National Bank decision making which is consistent with the opinions presented in the Czech National Bank Board Minutes.

Atualmente há uma quantidade considerável de informação sobre o comportamento da economia à disposição da autoridade monetária, cuja decisão é provavelmente baseada nesse grande conjunto de dados. Entretanto, grande parte das análises empíricas de política monetária é baseada em modelos de pequena escala, e o problema de variáveis omitidas pode ser relevante. Uma literatura mais recente mostrou que grandes conjuntos de séries macroeconômicas podem ser modelados usando fatores dinâmicos, que são considerados um resumo da informação contida nos dados. Neste trabalho combinamos os fatores extraídos de 178 séries de tempo com os modelos tradicionais de pequena escala para analisar a política monetária no Brasil. Os fatores estimados são usados como instrumentos em regras de Taylor forward looking e como regressores adicionais em VAR´s. A informação extraída de grandes conjuntos de dados mostrou-se bem útil na análise empírica da política monetária. / Nowadays there is a considerable amount of information on the behavior of the economy available and central bankers can be expected to base their decisions on this very large information set. Nevertheless, most of the empirical analysis of monetary policy has been based on small scale models, and omitted information can be a relevant problem. Recent time-series techniques have shown that large datasets can be modeled using dynamic factors, which are considered a summary of the information in the data. In this work we combine the factors extracted from 178 time series with more traditional small scale models to analyze monetary policy in Brazil. The estimated factors are used as instruments in forward looking Taylor rules and as additional regressors in VAR´s. The information extracted from large datasets turns out to be quite useful for the empirical analysis of monetary policy.

The aim of this research is to check whether the Taylor rule in its simple linear form can be viewed as an appropriate description of the monetary policy pursued by Norway’s central bank – Norges Bank, and whether this rule can be used for forecasting purposes. Not only does this research focus on the original Taylor rule, but it also deals with its extended version designed for small open economies such as Norway. A conclusion about whether regressions can produce reliable coefficient estimates is drawn on the basis of time series’ properties tests and cointegration tests. The performance of the simple-form Taylor equation is compared to its alternative forms through forecasting exercises. The study has shown that the extended version of the Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing and augmented with the real exchange rate, the policy rate of the EU and oil prices can be viewed as a close approximation of Norges Bank’s monetary policy and can be used for forecasting purposes.

The objective of this study is to investigate how the development regarding the short-term nominal interest rate in Portugal would have differed from that set by the ECB 1999-2011 in a situation where they did not enter the European Monetary Union. To do this, we use the Taylor rule, which incorporates economic activities such as inflation and output and how these deviates from their target. Constructing the Taylor rule, we estimate its reaction functions using an Ordinary Least Square Regression on annual data from the period 1988-1998. The reaction functions serve as weights on the deviations for inflation and output. The result reached is that the interest rate set by the ECB since 1999 is far below that interest rate required by the Portuguese economic situation. Further, we discuss how the influence in the setting of the ECB interest rate differs considering the member countries size.