Orientador: Saul Barisnik Suslick / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica e Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T11:52:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Abreu_CarlosAlexandreCamargode_D.pdf: 1504826 bytes, checksum: 4dbdfda550735292a851456660af35c0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Esse trabalho propõe dois modelos de Opções Reais para avaliação econômica de projetos em águas profundas, considerando os efeitos das incertezas em relação ao preço do petróleo e ao processo de evolução tecnológica. Esses modelos são bastante úteis nesses tipos de aplicações, pois permitem estimar o impacto do avanço tecnológico em campos com reservas de petróleo desenvolvidas, mas que apresentam grandes níveis de incertezas, pois as tecnologias atualmente conhecidas não possibilitam o desenvolvimento da produção com viabilidade econômica. Os modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados em estudos de casos em diferentes cenários tecnológicos e projetos de campos simulados. As incertezas relacionadas ao processo de evolução tecnológica impactam no valor dos custos operacionais do projeto, considerando que os preços seguem um Movimento Geométrico Browniano, representando sua evolução ao longo do tempo. No primeiro modelo proposto a tecnologia evolui de acordo com saltos aleatórios de melhoria de eficiências, enquanto que no segundo modelo a evolução da tecnologia comporta-se de acordo com uma função logística. Foi obtida solução analítica para o caso do primeiro modelo com uma variável estocástica. No segundo modelo foi utilizada o método numérico da Simulação de Monte Carlo, com duas variáveis estocásticas, resultando na estimativa do valor da opção de espera e do momento ótimo de investimento. / Abstract: This work proposes two Real Options models for economic evaluation of E&P projects located in deep-water. The models consider the effects of uncertainties related to the oil price and the process of technological evolution. These models are useful for undeveloped reserves of heavy oil in deep-water that depict a great level of uncertainty, as the available technologies do not support the economic feasibility of the production development of such fields. The effects of technology impact on operational costs, and prices are modeled using a Geometric Brownian Motion stochastic process. The first model supposes that technology evolution is modeled with random jumps representing gains in efficiency and uses only one stochastic variable, which are obtained through an analytical solution. The second model employs a logistic utility function to model the technological evolution process and a numerical procedure (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used as a solution, using two stochastic variables. The developed models estimate the waiting option values and the optimal timing for investment for the decision process. / Doutorado / Reservatórios e Gestão / Doutor em Ciências e Engenharia de Petróleo

Policymakers in the United States and elsewhere have recognized that a broad and competitive manufacturing sector is crucial to a robust economy and that to remain competitive, a nation must invent and master new ways of making things. Moving technologies from laboratory to commercial success poses considerable challenges however. If the technology is radically new, this transition can be so risky and investment-heavy that only very large private firms can attempt it. One such new technology is metal additive manufacturing (MAM). MAM provides a vivid illustration of the tensions policymakers must resolve in simultaneously supporting the commercialization of early-stage innovations of strategic national interest, while fulfilling the government’s duty to ensure human health and safety. After an initial chapter with a general overview of additive manufacturing technologies, this dissertation explores these tensions from the perspective of two very different industrial contexts: the U.S. as a technology leader and trailblazer in the development of the technology, and Portugal as a technology follower with severely constrained resources. In the first case study, I use the extreme case of MAM (an emerging technology with many sources of process uncertainty) in commercial aviation (an industry where lapses in safety can have catastrophic consequences) to unpack how the characteristics of a technology may influence the options for regulatory intervention. Although my work focuses on the U.S. and the Federal Aviation Administration’s regulation, I expect this work to have an international scope, given that in most countries regulation is heavily influenced by, if not an exact copy of, the U.S. regulation. Based on my findings, I propose an adaptive regulatory framework in which standards are periodically revised and in which different groups of companies are regulated differently as a function of their technological capabilities. I conclude by proposing a generalizable framework for regulating emerging process-based technologies in safety-critical industries in which the optimal regulatory configuration depends on the industry structure (number of firms), the performance and safety requirements, and the sources of technological uncertainty. In the second case study, I analyze the adoption of polymer (PAM) and metal (MAM) additive manufacturing technologies in the Portuguese molds industry, both of which offer important benefits to their products. Leveraging archival data (related to the history of Portuguese institutions, and the development of additive manufacturing both globally and in Portugal), insights from 45 interviews across academia, industry, and government; and 75 hours of participant observations, we develop insights about why institutional instability affected the adoption of Polymer Additive Manufacturing (PAM) and Metal Additive Manufacturing (MAM) differently. In both cases, Portugal invested in the technology relatively early, and in the case of PAM the research community has been able to move towards high-tech applications. In contrast, the adoption of MAM has been modest despite its potential to greatly improve the performance and competitiveness of metal molds. From the comparison between PAM and MAM, we generate theory about which technological and contextual factors affect their ‘technological forgiveness’, defined as the resiliency of a new technology’s adoption to institutional instability. We conclude by proposing a generalizable framework for ‘forgiveness’ in different industrial contexts. The final chapter of this dissertation contains practical recommendations for regulators and managers interested in adopting the technology. Policymakers in the aviation industry may want to encourage the creation of programs to gather more flight experience with MAM parts. Small aircraft and other applications with higher risk tolerance than commercial aviation might represent more important channels to gather information, as the history of composite materials suggests. More importantly, regulators may need to introduce clauses in their rules to regulate MAM to avoid situations of ‘regulatory lock-in’ which could harm the long-term potential of the technology. Despite the potential of additive manufacturing, we believe that near-term expectations for it are overblown. In general, additive manufacturing holds great promise, but in many areas the cart has gotten ahead of the horse. Much of the technology is still under development. The history of comparable technologies such as composite materials and high-performance castings shows that the problems may take decades to resolve. For now, additive manufacturing is cost-competitive only in niche applications — for instance, those involving plastics. Businesses that want to plunge into additive manufacturing should be cognizant of the challenges. Determining whether it makes sense to invest in additive manufacturing will require experimentation and learning.

This thesis addresses the challenges that firms are faced with when collaborating with suppliers in new product development (NPD) projects under technological uncertainty. A critical observation that is made in this context is that technologies are evolving faster, making products more complex. At the same time, firms become more specialized. Due to increased complexity and specialization, firms do not possess all the necessary technologies in-house and therefore need to collaborate with external organisations to incorporate new technology into their products. Common collaborators are suppliers who become integrated into the buying firm’s NPD project. However, finding suppliers and collaborating with suppliers in NPD can be problematic. In addition, external collaborations also impact the buying firm internally, since it often needs to coordinate its departments. The purpose of this thesis is to explore supplier involvement in NPD under technological uncertainty. Challenges in supplier selection are concerned with the issues of involving new suppliers or relying on old acquaintances, managing uncertainties, the dilemma of whether to commit to long-term relationships or to maintain flexibility, and deciding on which department that is responsible for evaluating and selecting the supplier. The present study of buyers and suppliers in NPD, shows the challenges that are involved in balancing control, reaching goal alignment, and managing transactional and relational governance. Internal challenges investigate the coordination between the R&D department and purchasing in NPD projects where suppliers are involved. The present findings may be of value for firms who engage in collaborative NPD, or for firms who aim to involve suppliers in their development of new products.

Scholars in strategy, economics, and sociology of science and technology have studied technology development as a source of firms’ economic gains as well as institutional changes. Drawing on the extant research of technology and innovation strategy, I investigate the problem of knowledge generation and flows in technology development. Specifically, I explore how firms generate novel technology and develop technological breakthroughs; how knowledge flows between firms affect interfirm cooperation in a knowledge network; and how science and technology programs impact the institutions of knowledge production. In Essay 1 (Chapter 2), I examine the antecedents of knowledge recombination and technological breakthroughs. Conceptualizing a firm’s exploration as a combinatory search of prior new-recombination (an original technology component), I investigate the impacts of prior new-recombination and search boundary (local vs. boundary-spanning) on the characteristics of focal invention. In particular, I theorize and juxtapose the contrasting effects of the boundary of technological search of prior new-recombination on the propensities that the focal invention generates new recombination and becomes a technological breakthrough. Specifically, I hypothesize that, when the technological search involves new recombination in prior inventions, 1) the likelihood of generating new recombination in the focal invention is greatest for a boundary spanning search, smallest for a local search, and intermediate for a hybrid search (which involves both types of search); but 2) the likelihood for the focal invention to become a technological breakthrough is greatest for a local search, smallest for a boundary spanning search, and intermediate for a hybrid search. I find supporting evidence from the analysis of U.S. nanotechnology patents granted between 1980 and 2006. The purpose of Essay 2 (Chapter 3) is to determine the effect of knowledge flows on the formation of interfirm cooperation. By distinguishing codified knowledge flows from tacit knowledge flows, this paper demonstrates that antecedents of interfirm cooperation lie in codified knowledge flows that precede interfirm cooperation. Two properties of asymmetry in directional codified knowledge flows, intensity and uncertainty, underpin this paper’s arguments and empirical tests. The main finding in this study is that intense codified knowledge flows weaken the formation of interfirm cooperation. By mapping dyadic firms to a center and a periphery firm within a knowledge network, I theorize that the uncertainty of directional codified knowledge flows induces the center and the periphery firms to pursue interfirm cooperation differently. The results show that while uncertainty caused by distant technology components in knowledge flows hinders a center firm from pursuing interfirm cooperation, uncertainty stimulates a periphery firm to pursue interfirm cooperation. A statistical analysis performed on a sample of enterprise software firms between 1992 and 2009 supports the hypotheses of this paper. In Essay 3 (Chapter 4), I examine how the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), a most recent U.S. government’s science and technology (S&T) program launched in 2000, impacts the nature of university research in nanotechnology. I characterize the NNI as a policy intervention that targets the commercialization of technology and a focused research direction to promote national economic growth. As such, I expect that the NNI has brought about unintended consequences in terms of the direction of university-industry knowledge flows and the characteristics of university research output in nanotechnology. Using the difference-in-differences analysis of the U.S. nanotechnology patents filed between 1996 and 2007, I find that, for the U.S. universities, the NNI has increased knowledge inflows from the industry, diminished the branching-out to novel technologies, reduced the research scope, and decreased the likelihood of technological breakthroughs, as compared to other U.S. and non-U.S. research institutions. The findings suggest that, at least in the case of the NNI, targeted S&T programs of the government may increase the efficiency of university research, but potentially do so at a considerable price.