Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The microclimate environment around the bunch is complex. The spatial distribution of leaves as well as bunch position and morphology impact on the path of direct radiation received by the berries. Canopy microclimate is largely determined by the meteorological conditions (air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, and precipitation) as well as management practices (trellis/training system, canopy height, vine spacing, row orientation, canopy management practices, irrigation and soil variability and management). The fact that the grapevine continuously responds to its environment, adds to the complexity and dynamic nature of the microclimate that the bunches experience. Field studies involving the effect of the natural bunch environment (i.e. light and temperature conditions) on berry composition, are therefore a challenge, due to the difficulties in quantifying meteorological elements such as temperature and light, which can be hugely variable. There are different sensors available to assess bunch and berry temperature and it can be deployed in different ways within the grapevine canopy, but the difficulty remains in studying the variability that exists within a bunch. This study investigated the value of available sensor technology to measure bunch/berry temperature as well as the spatial and temporal variability on a bunch. Differences in temperature on an intra-berry level were assessed whereas the impact of canopy configuration and bunch orientation on the different sensor levels was also investigated. The contribution of macro- and mesoclimate on bunch and berry temperature was addressed by measuring at two locations (Robertson and Stellenbosch). The potential long term differences in temperature within a bunch with regard to thermal accumulation are discussed. Issues around sensor placement and some technical difficulties related to the sensors are discussed. The results indicated how the effects of mesoclimate were transferred through to the different sensors. A dominating effect of the sea breeze in Stellenbosch was found. Canopy configuration/architecture affected the light regime in the canopy, consequently impacting on bunch temperature variability, specifically in Stellenbosch where a "Ballerina" trellising system was used. Bunch orientation resulted in differences in the temporal variability of bunch/berry temperature and little variability was observed in temperature within the berry. Temperatures of berries situated at the back of the bunch were judged more optimal compared to exposed berries. Direct radiation caused extreme temperatures in exposed berries, which may be detrimental to berry composition and wine quality. This emphasized the importance of the canopy (trellis/training system and management practices) in protecting the bunch from extreme conditions. The large on-bunch spatial variability, observed from measurements with the thermal imager, demonstrated the importance of sensor placement in quantifying the bunch temperature regime; this is also relevant for the future development of berry temperature modelling. Thermal accumulation through the season also illustrated the variability that existed within a bunch, suggesting a potential long term effect on the berry composition. This study proved, in conditions similar to those that may prevail in the South African wine industry, that sensor type and positioning need to be carefully considered in any viticultural/oenological study where bunch microclimate and grape temperatures are assessed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die mikroklimaat omgewing rondom die tros is kompleks. Die ruimtelike verspreiding van blare sowel as trosposisie en -morfologie het 'n impak op die pad waarlangs direkte straling ontvang word deur die korrels. Lowermikroklimaat word grootliks bepaal deur die meteorologiese kondisies (lugtemperatuur, sonstraling, windspoed en -rigting, relatiewe humiditeit en reënval) sowel as bestuurspraktyke (prieel/opleistelsel, lowerhoogte, wingerdstokspasiëring, ry-oriëntasie, lowerbestuurspraktyke, besproeiing asook grondvariasie en bestuur). Die feit dat die wingerdstok voortdurend reageer op sy omgewing dra by tot die kompleksiteit en dinamiese aard van die mikroklimaat wat die trosse ervaar. Veldstudies gemoeid met die effek van die natuurlike trosomgewing (d.w.s. lig- en temperatuurkondisies) op korrelsamestelling is daarom 'n uitdaging. Die rede hiervoor is dat dit problematies is om meteorologiese elemente soos temperatuur en lig, wat baie veranderlik kan wees, te kwantifiseer. Verskillende sensors is beskikbaar waarmee tros- en korreltemperatuur bepaal kan word en dit kan op verskillende wyses binne die wingerdstoklower aangewend word. Die bestudering van die variasie wat bestaan binne 'n tros is egter steeds problematies. Hierdie studie het die waarde ondersoek van die beskikbare sensortegnologie vir die meting van tros/korreltemperatuur en die ruimtelike en tydsvariasie op 'n tros. Verskille in temperatuur op 'n intra-korrelvlak is bepaal terwyl die impak van lowerkonfigurasie en trosoriëntasie op die verskillende sensorvlakke ook ondersoek is. Die bydrae van makro- en mesoklimaat tot tros- en korreltemperatuur is ondersoek deur te meet by twee verskillende liggings (Robertson en Stellenbosch). Die potensiële langtermyn verskille in temperatuur binne-in 'n tros met betrekking tot temperatuur akkumulasie word bespreek. Kwessies rakende sensorplasing en sommige tegniese probleme wat verband hou met sensors word bespreek. Die resultate het aangedui hoedat die effekte van mesoklimaat oorgedra is na die verskillende sensors. 'n Dominerende effek van die seebries is waargeneem in Stellenbosch. Lowerkonfigurasie/argitektuur het die ligregime in die lower beïnvloed en gevolglik 'n invloed gehad op die trostemperatuur veranderlikheid. Dit was veral die geval in Stellenbosch waar 'n "Ballerina" opleistelsel gebruik is. Trosoriëntasie het gelei tot verskille in tydsvariasie van tros/ korreltemperatuur en min variasie is waargeneem in temperatuur binne die korrel. Temperature van korrels wat voorkom aan die agterkant van die tros is beoordeel as meer optimaal vergeleke met blootgestelde korrels. Direkte straling het uiterste temperature in blootgestelde korrels veroorsaak wat nadelig kan wees vir korrelsamestelling en wynkwaliteit. Hierdeur is die belang van die lower (prieel/opleistelsel en bestuurspraktyke) om die tros te beskerm teen uiterste kondisies beklemtoon. Die groot ruimtelike variasie op 'n tros, soos waargeneem in metings met die termiese kamera, het die belangrikheid van sensorplasing in die kwantifisering van die trostemperatuur regime beklemtoon. Dit is ook relevant vir die toekomstige ontwikkeling van korreltemperatuur modellering. Termiese akkumulasie gedurende die seisoen is ook geïllustreer deur die veranderlikheid wat voorkom binne 'n tros, wat dui op 'n potensiële langtermyn effek op die korrelsamestelling. Hierdie studie het bewys, in kondisies wat algemeen voorkom in die Suid-Afrikaanse wynbedryf, dat sensortipe en -plasing sorgvuldig in ag geneem moet word in enige wingerd/wynkundige studie waar trosmikroklimaat en druiftemperature bepaal word. / Winetech and the National Research Foundation for their financial support of the project

A wide range of ecological communities ranging from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments are affectedby global climate change. Over the last century, atmospheric temperature has increased by an average of 0. 60 C andis expected to rise by 1.1- 6.40C over the next 100 years. This rising temperature has increased the intensity andfrequency of weather extremes due to which a large number of species are facing risk of extinction. Studies haveshown that species existing on lower latitude are more sensitive to temperature variability compared to speciesexisting on higher latitude but temperature is increasing rapidly in higher latitude compare to lower latitude. Thisuneven distribution of temperature sensitive species and warming rate has highlighted the need for combined studiesof temperature variability and sensitiveness of species to predict how the ecosystems will respond to increasinglyvariable climate. Using a generalized Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, I explored how temperature variability andsensitivity of species will affect the extinction risks of species and how the connectance and species-richness ofecological communities will govern this response. This study showed that the risk of extinction of species mostlydepends on their sensitivity to temperature deviation from the optimum value and level of temperature variability.Among these two, sensitivity of species to temperature deviation was most prominent factor affecting extinction risk.In this study, connectance did not show any effect on mean extinction risk and time taken by a certain proportion ofspecies to reach pre-defined extinction thresholds. But, species-richness showed some effect on mean extinction riskof species. It was found that risk of extinction of species in species-rich communities was higher compared tospecies-poor communities. Species-rich communities also took shorter time before they lost 1/6 of the species. Thepresent study also suggests a possible tipping point due to increasing temperature variability in near future. In furtherstudies, different sensitivity of species at different trophic levels and the possible evolution of sensitivity of speciesshould also be consider while predicting how ecological communities will respond to changing climate in the longrun.

Sediment core MD02-2550 from Orca Basin located in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provides a high-resolution early Holocene record of climatic and hydrologic changes from ~10.5 to 7 thousand calendar years before present (ka). Paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ18O on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white variety, 250-355 μm) sampled at ~ 20 year resolution were used to generate proxy records of sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater in the GOM (δ18OGOM). The Mg/Ca-SST record contains an overall ~1.5 °C warming trend from 10.5 to 7 ka that appears to track the intensity of the annual insolation cycle and six temperature oscillations (0.5-2 °C), the frequency of which are consistent with those found in records of solar variability. The δ18OGOM record contains six ~ 0.5 ‰ oscillations from 10.5 to 7 ka that bear some resemblance to regional hydrologic records from Haiti and the Cariaco Basin, plus a -0.8 ‰ excursion that may be associated with the “8.2 ka event” recorded in Greenland air temperatures. The δ18OGOM record, if interpreted as a salinity proxy, suggest large salinity fluctuations (> 2 ‰) reflecting changes in evaporation-precipitation (E-P) and Mississippi River input to the GOM. Percent Globigerinoides sacculifer records from three cores in the GOM exhibit remarkably coherent changes, suggesting episodic centennial-scale incursions of Caribbean waters. Spectral analysis of the Mg/Ca-SST and the δ18OGOM time series indicate that surface water conditions may be influenced by solar variations because they share significant periods of variability with atmospheric Δ 14C near 700, 200, and 80-70 years. Our results add to the growing body of evidence that the sub-tropics were characterized by significant decadal to centennial-scale climatic and hydrologic variability during the early Holocene.

Pour déterminer la vulnérabilité des systèmes de production viticole au changement et variabilité climatique, il faut connaître l’exposition physique d’une région, la sensibilité de la vigne et la capacité adaptative, apporté par le viticulteur par son « savoir-faire ». Ainsi, les mesures d’adaptation comme réponses au changement climatique (CC), résultent de la conjonction de ces trois composantes, analysées dans une perspective locale. L’objectif de cette étude a été définir la variabilité du climat dans la région viticole côtière du sud de l’Uruguay, évaluer les possibles impacts sur la vigne, et d’apporter des réponses sur l’adaptation de la vigne dans un contexte de CC. Dans dix vignobles commerciaux de Tannat situés dans les départements de Montevideo et Canelones, des capteurs de température ont été installés, répartis en fonction de la distance au Río de la Plata. La variabilité spatiale et temporelle de la température des vignobles a été mesurée par une analyse à méso-échelle. À une échelle plus fine, le phénomène de la pénétration de la brise de mer et leur effet sur l’évolution thermique diurne a été ainsi étudié. Le Río de la Plata à travers l’effet de l brise, est une des composants principaux du climat de la région viticole. La réponse de la vigne à la température sur la composition est expliquée par des conditions climatiques générales pendant la maturation (thermiques et hydriques). Les principaux acteurs de la filière (viticulteurs et conseillers) connaissent la variabilité locale du climat et ils ont identifié les aspects défavorables pour la production du raisin de qualité. Cependant, le climat ne semble pas avoir un rôle important dans la prise de décisions, mais d’une manière sous-jacente, il joue un rôle fondamental en la gestion du vignoble. Finalement, ils ont été identifiés des mesures d’adaptation à la variabilité locale du climat, en proposant stratégies à partir de la connaissance locale. / To determine the vulnerability of viticulture farming system to climate change (CC) and variability, the knowledge of climate exposure over the region, sensitivity and adaptive capacity provided by the winegrowers through their “savoir-faire” is primordial to contribute to adaptation issues to CC. The aim of this study was to define climate variability of the southern coastal wine region of Uruguay, evaluate its possible impacts in vinegrape and to provide adaptative responses in the context of CC. Ten plots were installed in commercial vineyards of Tannat over Canelones and Montevideo region at different distances to the Río de la Plata. Spatial and temporal variability of temperature was defined over the coastal region at meso-scale. At a fine scale, it was studied the sea breeze penetration and its impacts in the diurnal thermal evolution. The Río de la Plata through the sea breeze effect is one of the principal climate components in the southern wine region. Temperature grapevine sensitivity on berry composition at harvest is explained by climate general conditions during ripening (thermal and hydric conditions). The principal actors (winegrowers and advisors) know the local climate variability and have well identified unfavorable climate conditions to produce high quality grapes. However, climate seemed to be not relevant in producers’ decision making, but in an underlined way, its plays a fundamental role in vineyard management. Adaptation measures to local climate variability were identified by strategies proposed from the local knowledge / Para determinar la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas de producción vitícola al cambio y la variabilidad climática, se requiere conocer la exposición física de una región, su sensibilidad y la capacidad adaptativa aportada por el viticultor por su savoir-faire. Las medidas de adaptación en respuesta al cambio climático (CC), resultan de la conjunción de estos componentes, analizados desde una perspectiva local. El objetivo del estudio fue definir la variabilidad del clima actual de la región costera Sur de Uruguay, evaluar los posibles impactos en la vid, y aportar respuestas para su adaptación en el contexto de CC. En diez viñedos comerciales de Tannat ubicados en Canelones y Montevideo se instalaron sensores de temperatura según un diseño que contempló la distancia del Río de la Plata. Se precisó la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la temperatura de estos viñedos mediante un análisis a meso-escala. A una escala más fina, se estudió el fenómeno de la penetración de la brisa marina y su efecto en la evolución térmica diurna. El Río de la Plata a través del efecto de la brisa, es uno de los componentes principales del clima de la región vitícola sur. La sensibilidad de la vid a la temperatura sobre la composición es explicada por las condiciones climáticas generales durante la maduración (térmicas e hídricas). Los principales actores del sector (viticultores y asesores) conocen la variabilidad local del clima y tienen identificados los aspectos que son desfavorables para producir uvas de calidad. Sin embargo el clima no parece tener un rol preponderante en la toma de decisiones, pero de manera subyacente, este juega un rol fundamental en la gestión del viñedo. Por último, se identificaron medidas de adaptación a la variabilidad local del clima, proponiendo estrategias a partir del conocimiento local

La dificultad de disponer de series de referencia largas fiables para Cantabria nos llevó a plantearnos el problema de su reconstrucción estadística a través de un proceso de homogeneización. Tras dicha elaboración presentamos una cartografía que expresa la variabilidad de la Precipitación y la Temperatura a lo largo del siglo XX. Partimos de la existencia de contrastes regionales entre los cuales, los más significados, identifican dos comarcas de Cantabria con características bioclimáticas bien diferenciadas: el sector central de la Marina en la vertiente cantábrica y el valle de Campoo en la vertiente mediterránea. Los datos de partida, tomando como base las estaciones de Santander y Reinosa, constituyen una serie fragmentada en el tiempo que se ha completado interpolando los valores conocidos de un elevado número de estaciones en función de la distancia, en cada uno de los sectores previamente establecidos. A su vez, la irregular distribución espacial de las observaciones se ha resuelto estableciendo la correlación de las series climáticas con las variables espaciales altitud, latitud, longitud y orientación, entre otras, lo que nos ha permitido completar un conjunto de registros con elevada coherencia temporal y espacial. La inclusión de las series más largas y representativas de cada una de las comarcas, ha estado precedida de la búsqueda e incorporación de algunos periodos de observación inéditos y de un análisis crítico de los datos más antiguos. En esta etapa, no hemos servido de los métodos que la Climatología Histórica aplica al analizar los registros que proceden de fuentes documentales. / We have developed maps of the variability of precipitation and temperature in two different bioclimatic areas in the central sector of the north coast of Spain: one coastal in the Biscay basin, and one inland in the Mediterranean basin, throughout the twentieth century. Data gaps have been filled with the distance weighted interpolation (IDW), while the spatial distribution of observations is resolved by the correlation with the spatial variables calculated with a digital elevation model. Thus we have completed a data set with high temporal and spatial coherence. The inclusion of the longest and most representative series of the areas was preceded by the incorporation of some unpublished records and critical analysis of older data. For this we use Historical Climatology methods to analyse records from documentary sources.