Bachelor-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

本文擬探討塔信政權與泰國政治變遷的關係，從兩方面來分析泰國政黨政治體系的改變，一是從制度面討論1997年憲法的選舉制度對泰國政黨政治的衝擊與影響。二是從憲法的實踐和非制度化因素，分析塔信政權之興起與終結，來觀察泰國政治變遷的過程與意義。塔信政權是在1997年憲法下所運作的產物，最後卻被長達15年不見的軍事政變所終結。本文深入剖析塔信政權執政過程，探討為何會發生軍事政變的原因，以及分析這(場政變)對泰國民主產生什麼樣的意義與影響。 / This study examines the relationship between Thaksin's regime and political change in Thailand. It analyzes the change of the Thai party system from two respects. First, it discusses the impact which the new electoral system of the 1997constitution had on the Thai party politics. Second, it analyzes the rise and the fall of Thaksin’s regime from the constitution practice and the non-institutional factors in order to observe the process and the implication of political change in Thailand. Thaksin’s regime is the result of 1997 constitution. However, it was ended by a military coup which had not happened for 15 years. We discuss deeply the history of Thaksin’s regime, why the military coup took place to close this regime, and the influence of this military coup on Thai democracy.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This thesis explores the ongoing Malay-Muslim separatist insurgency in southern Thailand. In particular, it argues that historically-rooted structural factors, to include relative economic deprivation, limited political integration, and struggle for the maintenance of ethnic-religious identity, are at the root of this insurgency. The year 2001 produced two catalysts for the renewal of this insurgency, one internal and one external. The internal catalyst was a newly elected suppressive government regime under the leadership of Prime Minister Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party. The external catalyst was the growing, increasingly radicalized Islamist movement, largely defined through terrorist violence, that expressed itself in the 9/11 attacks. The combination of these has produced rekindled secessionist violence of a previously unknown level in the Thai provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala. Given the deeply ingrained structural cause of this insurgency, as well as a government administration whose policies and conflict mismanagement continually fuels the violence, the prospect for conflict resolution is not promising. Nonetheless, it remains in the best interests of the United States that this conflict is soon resolved. Should the insurgency continue growing, the situation may reach a point of drastic consequences for Thailand as well as the United States. / Captain, United States Air Force