La hausse de la volatilité des cours des matières premières agricoles de ces dernières années couplée à une réorganisation des filières débutées dans les années 1990, posent la question de l'approvisionnement des pays du Maghreb en blés et produits dérivés du blé. Ce travail se propose, dans ce contexte, de comprendre les modalités d'importations des blés et leur influence sur le choix du partenaire commercial. Nous nous appuyons, pour cela, sur un cadre théorique où les acteurs perçoivent les biens qu'ils importent, transforment ou commercialisent comme une collection de caractéristiques répondant à cinq logiques (le prix, la qualité, les services associés, les relations avec le fournisseur et le risque de non disponibilité) et sélectionnent leur variété préférée en fonction de ces caractéristiques. L'organisation des filières détermine l'acteur qui pourra imposer ses préférences au niveau des marchés internationaux. Une enquête au niveau des filières montre une préférence de l'ensemble des acteurs pour les caractéristiques ayant traits à la qualité et au prix sur les trois autres logiques, avec une plus grande sensibilité des acteurs privés pour la qualité, les acteurs publics étant plus focalisés sur les seuls prix. Enfin, une analyse des importations à l'aide d'équations de gravités confirme, d'une part la, prédominance des variables associées à la qualité et aux prix sur les autres variables pour expliquer le choix du partenaire commercial. D'autre part, le modèle de gravité montre que plus la part des importations effectuée par les entreprises privées est importante, plus les variables associées à la qualité sont influentes dans le choix du fournisseur. / Last years' rise of commodity price volatility and commodity chain reorganization which began in the 1990's questioned the issue of supply in wheat and wheat products for Maghreb countries. This work will try to understand the different wheat and wheat product import mode and their influence on trade partner choice. We settle our analyze on a theoretical framework in which actors perceive the goods they import, process or sell as a collection of characteristics corresponding to five logics (price, quality, related services, relations with the supplier and the risk of unavailability) and select their favorite variety in terms of these characteristics. Filière organization selects which actors are able to impose their preferences in international markets. A survey among actors shows a preference for the characteristics relating to quality and price on the three other logics, with a greater sensitivity of private actors for quality, public players are more focused solely on price. Finally, an analysis of imports using gravity equations confirms, on the one hand, predominance of variables associated with quality and prices on other variables to explain the choice of trading partner. On the other hand, it shows that the larger the share of imports carried by private companies on a filière, the more the variables associated with quality are influential in the choice of supplier.

Based on the gravity model by Baier and Bergstrand (2001), we use a static and dynamic panel data approach to estimate the relative contributions of income growth, income convergence, and the reductions in tariffs and trade costs to the growth of intra-EU trade over the period 1960 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth was the major force, accounting for approximately two third of total growth. Trade liberalization still had a sizeable effect, accounting de facto for the rest of growth, while income convergence played only a minor role. Reductions in trade costs had no significant effect on the growth of intra- EU trade. The results turn out as robust against several robustness checks and the use of alternative estimators. / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

The expansive nature of water distribution system makes them susceptible to threats such as natural disasters and man-made destructions. Vulnerability assessment research efforts have increased since the passing of “Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act” in 2002 to harden WDS. This study aimed to develop a method that locates critical nodes without hydraulic analysis of every failure scenario, applicable for any size WDS, incorporates critical infrastructure, and capable of verifying method accuracy. The Flow Distribution method is the application of the gravity model, typically used to predict traffic flows in transportation engineering, to a distribution system. Flow distribution predicts the amount of demand and population that would be affected if any node in the system were disabled by solving for the distribution of each node’s outflow. Flow Distribution is applied to the hypothetical city, Anytown, USA using the computer simulation program WaterCAD to model two different disaster scenarios. Results were verified by analyzing sixteen failure scenarios (one for each node) to measure the actual demand and population effect, which was then compared to the nodes predicted by Flow Distribution. Flow Distribution predicted the critical nodes with 70% accuracy and can still be improved with future work.

Ce travail étudie la nature de la relation entre commerce et Ide sur le plan théorique et empirique. Théoriquement, il y a deux sortes de relations entre commerce et Ide: substitution et complémentarité. La nature de cette relation peut être la conséquence de facteurs exogènes, déterminant de la spécialisation des pays ou encore le résultat de la stratégie endogène des firmes multinationales dans l’organisation de leurs activités à l’échelle internationale. On parle de relation de complémentarité quand il y a un lien positif entre commerce et Ide, et de relation de substitution quand il y a un lien négatif entre commerce et Ide. Empiriquement, avec le modèle de gravité, on applique les techniques économétriques sur données annuelles de 2000 à 2014 sur les données bilatérales de 18 pays principaux investisseurs de l’OCDE, d’abord dans l’industrie manufacturière et ensuite selon les zones géographiques, avec un ensemble de 75 pays partenaires repartis dans ces différentes zones géographiques. Ces 75 pays sont constitués de, 17 autres pays de l’OCDE, 17 pays de l’Amérique Latine non OCDE, 3 pays de l’Europe de l’Est non OCDE et 38 pays de l’Asie non OCDE. Pour l’analyse du secteur manufacturier, on trouve en exportation comme en importation, une relation de complémentarité entre commerce et Ide. Pour l’analyse par zone géographique, on trouve en exportation comme en importation, une relation de substitution pour la zone OCDE et l’Amérique Latine non OCDE et une relation de complémentarité pour la zone Europe de l’Est non OCDE. Cependant pour la zone Asie non OCDE, on trouve une relation de substitution en exportation et une relation de complémentarité en importation. / This paper studies the nature of the relationship between international trade and foreign trade direct investment, both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, there is in general two sorts of relations between international trade and direct foreign investment: substitution and complementarity. The nature of that relation may either be the consequence of exogenous factors, determinants of country specialization or the result of endogenous strategy of multinational firms in the organization of their activities internationally. We speak of complementarity relation when there is a positive link between international trade and investment, and substitution relation when there is a negative link between international trade and investment. Empirically, with the gravity model, we apply econometric technics on yearly data of the panel during 2000 and 2014 period on bilateral data of eighteen countries main investors of OECD, at first in manufacturer industry and then depending on geographical areas, with a set of seventy-five countries divided up in these geographical areas. The seventy-five partner countries consist of seventeen other countries of OECD, seventeen Latin America countries non-OECD, three eastern European countries non-OECD, and thirty-eight Asian countries non- OECD. Regarding the analysis of the geographical area, the estimations point out, in exportation as in importation, a substitution relation for the OECD area and Latin America non-OECD area and a complementarity relation for eastern European non-OECD area. However, for Asian non-OECD area, the estimations show, a substitution relation in exportation and a complementarity relation in importation.

Thesis advisor: Ryan Chahrour / Virtual Economies present an excellent opportunity to study Economic concepts and phenomena in a controllable environment where perfect data collection exists. This paper uses Macroeconomic data provided by CCP Games on EVE Online to explore how the Quantity Theory of Money holds in a world without finance. The study supports the Real Business Cycle's effects on prices. Furthermore, a quick look is taken on the effects that player imposed borders have on trade within the EVE universe. It appears that, even in a virtual world, borders tend to reduce patterns of trade among neighboring regions. These findings encourage the further use of virtual economies, particularly Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs), as petri dishes for the study of macroeconomic theories. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are ana- lyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis shows both the US and China's consumer welfare and GDP decreased across all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the ASEAN region. JEL Classification C68, F13, F11, Keywords Trade war, CGE, General Equilibrium Title Measuring the Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using a Computable General Equi- librium Model Author's e-mail hehaeunk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第19902号 / 農博第2185号 / 新制||農||1044(附属図書館) / 学位論文||H28||N5006(農学部図書室) / 32979 / 京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 福井 清一, 教授 伊藤 順一, 准教授 沈 金虎 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

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Purpose – This report aims to address the methods used to obtain multi-regional input-output tables (MRIO-tables). Method – The research focuses on three gravity model of trade methods: simple gravity model estimation, doubly constrained gravity model estimation, and gravity model estimation with calibrated error function minimization. These methods are used for estimating and modelling multiregional trade flows, specifically in the context of MRIO-tables. These methods will be denoted as method 1, method 2 and method 3. Through a comparative analysis, the study focuses on the strengths and limitations of these methods and provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in the field. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the differences between the methods and their effectiveness in accurately representing MRIO-tables. Findings – This study evaluates three methods (mentioned above) for estimating multiregional trade flows, highlighting their performance. Method 1 and 2, exhibited similarities in their approach to estimating trade flows, both surpassing the performance of method 3 across various evaluation metrics. According to the results, method 1 and 2 are better than method 3 in accurately estimating multiregional trade flows. Limitations – This work had some limitations, the research focused on one specific product and how they flow between and across the regions as well as the total quantity of this product, i.e., the margins.

A fundamental requirement in agricultural trade is that imported products are safe, and do not pose a risk to human, animal and plant health. To address this issue, all countries maintain measures to ensure that imported food is safe for consumers, and to prevent the spread of disease among animals and plants. These measures, by their nature, can affect competitiveness by increasing the costs of imports or prohibiting them altogether. To ensure that these measures are used for their intended purpose and not as protectionist measures, WTO member countries signed the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures. A growing number of studies attempt to quantify the effects of SPS regulations on international trade flows. However, precious little research is dedicated to determining the effects of specific phytosanitary regulations on trade flows and, more importantly, questions regarding SPS regulations and their impact as "trade barriers" or "trade catalysts" remain to be settled. This thesis contributes to existing literature in two ways. First, a comprehensive and user friendly database on specific phytosanitary regulations faced by U.S. exports of onions, peas, walnuts, apples, cherries, grapes, peaches/nectarines, oranges and strawberries to 176 countries is developed for the period 1999-2009. Second, this database is used for an empirical investigation to determine how existing SPS regulations affect U.S. fruit and vegetable exports. The results indicate that initially, phytosanitary treatments act as "barriers" to trade. However, as exporters' experience grows, the negative impact of treatments is reduced and eventually eliminated. / Master of Science