In the last decade, the changes in living styles of people and shopping activities brought a new concept, &ldquo / shopping center&rdquo / . By the time the numbers of shopping centers increased and this big consumption market created a great competition among the investors. The investors had the necessity of examining their market share within the market and other social and spatial factors for the feasibility of their shopping centers. In this thesis considering the need of such a study, a market share analysis is carried out to determine the market share of shopping centers within the competition, analyze the important facts of the market share, estimate the market capacity and potential market regions. Ankara is chosen as the study area since it has an increasing trend for the development of shopping centers. Tthe study is carried out for Armada, Bilkent and 5M Migros shopping centers since they serve for the whole city and have different functions such as recreation, restaurants, cultural activities together with shopping activities. For the analysis a gravity model developed by Lakshmanan and Hansen is used. The model estimates the market share of the centers among regions considering the factors, as accessibility in terms of cost and time, economic conditions of regions, attractiveness of shopping centers and competitors of the market. For the application process Geographic Information Systems ESRI Arc GIS 8.1 and ESRI ArcView 3.2 are used as software to store and manipulate data, build regulations on road network structure, calculate distances and costs, and present maps and results.

This thesis examines whether EU and EMU memberships appeared to protect the member countries’ trade, measured in exports, during the 2008 global financial crisis. The panel data analysis is based on a country sample of 40 OECD and EU countries during the period from 2000 to 2016. By employing a pooled Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression and an augmented gravity model, we investigate how the EU and EMU countries’ trade was impacted in comparison to the average of the OECD countries’ trade during the crisis. The results indicate that being a member of the EU or the currency union did not pose additional protection, as the member countries’ trade seemed to be more negatively impacted by the crisis than the average trade in the OECD countries.

A partir da década de 1990, houve uma proliferação de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC) ao redor do mundo. Dentro deste cenário de mudança do comércio mundial, a América Latina foi um importante ator na criação de novos acordos. Entretanto, devido a histórica instabilidade política e econômica da região, nunca houve uma integração de fato, devido principalmente ao caráter protecionista dos países. Nesse sentido, a Aliança do Pacífico (Chile, Colômbia, Peru e México) vem com uma proposta de integração econômica diferente, com objetivo de unir suas economias ainda mais e estar aberta às negociações comerciais com terceiros países. O objetivo deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros da Aliança do Pacífico (AP), através do modelo gravitacional de comércio por meio de dados em painel com efeitos fixos para o ano de 2013, com uma amostra de 98 países. Os resultados mostraram que o comércio estimado para o ano de 2013 ficou apenas 1% abaixo do comércio efetivo, o equivalente a US$ 240,6 milhões. A análise por par de países mostrou que o mais beneficiado com a criação da AP seria o México, expandindo consideravelmente suas importações e exportações. / From the 1990s, there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (APC) around the world. Within this world trade change of scenery, Latin America was a key player in the creation of new agreements. However, due to historical political and economic instability in the region, there has never been an integration, mainly due to the protectionist nature of countries. In this sense, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico) comes with a proposal for a different economic integration, aiming to unite their economies further and be open to trade negotiations with third countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the bilateral trade potential between the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA), through the gravitational trade model in panel data with fixed effects for year 2013, with a sample of 98 countries. The results showed that the estimated trade for the year 2013 was only 1% below the actual trade, equivalent to US $ 240.6 million. Analysis by pair of countries showed that most benefited from the creation of the Pacific Alliance would be Mexico, considerably expanding its imports and exports.

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between migration flows and the variables considered as factors of pull/push, such as average income in the State of origin and destination of migration, access to water, access to electricity, distribution of income, health, violence, mean years of schooling and level of employment in the period of 2002-2014 to Federation Units (FU). To achieve this goal, it is estimated a gravity model with panel data for migration flows, including a dummy variable for States which share borders. The main results that, if on the one hand, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais are the main destination States, on the other are the main sources of inter-State migrations in Brazil. As regards econometric results, one of the main findings is that the average income in the destination is indeed a factor that can affect the migration decision of the individual. It is also possible to observe that the coefficients associated with population variables in the source and target, as well as the distance between them, were statistically significant. Were also statistically significant parameters associated with the average yield; the concentration of income; to health; to violence; the dummy to States that share borders; the number of people with access to electricity and the average years of study. It should be noted that, in the present study, the number of people with access to piped water and the percentage of the population employed were not statistically significant. / Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a relação entre os fluxos migratórios e as variáveis consideradas como fatores de atração/repulsão, tais como, rendimento médio no estado de destino e da origem das migrações, acesso à água, acesso à energia elétrica, distribuição de renda, saúde, violência, escolaridade média e nível de emprego no período de 2002-2014 para as Unidades da Federação (UF’s). Para atingir esse objetivo, estima-se um modelo gravitacional com dados em painel para os fluxos de migrações, incluindo-se uma variável dummy para estados que compartilham fronteiras. Como principais resultados, observa-se que, se por um lado, São Paulo e Minas Gerais são os principais estados destinos, por outro são as principais origens das migrações interestaduais no Brasil. No que diz respeito aos resultados econométricos, um dos principais resultados encontrados é que o rendimento médio no destino, é de fato um fator que pode influenciar a decisão de migração do indivíduo. Também é possível observar que os coeficientes associados às variáveis população na origem e no destino, bem como, a distância entre elas, foram estatisticamente significativos. Se mostraram também estatisticamente significativos os parâmetros associados ao rendimento médio; à concentração de renda; à saúde; à violência; a dummy para estados que compartilham fronteiras; ao número de pessoas com acesso à energia elétrica e a média de anos de estudo. Ressalta-se que, no presente estudo, o número de pessoas com acesso à água encanada e o percentual da população empregada não foram estatisticamente significativas.

A partir da década de 1990, houve uma proliferação de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC) ao redor do mundo. Dentro deste cenário de mudança do comércio mundial, a América Latina foi um importante ator na criação de novos acordos. Entretanto, devido a histórica instabilidade política e econômica da região, nunca houve uma integração de fato, devido principalmente ao caráter protecionista dos países. Nesse sentido, a Aliança do Pacífico (Chile, Colômbia, Peru e México) vem com uma proposta de integração econômica diferente, com objetivo de unir suas economias ainda mais e estar aberta às negociações comerciais com terceiros países. O objetivo deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros da Aliança do Pacífico (AP), através do modelo gravitacional de comércio por meio de dados em painel com efeitos fixos para o ano de 2013, com uma amostra de 98 países. Os resultados mostraram que o comércio estimado para o ano de 2013 ficou apenas 1% abaixo do comércio efetivo, o equivalente a US$ 240,6 milhões. A análise por par de países mostrou que o mais beneficiado com a criação da AP seria o México, expandindo consideravelmente suas importações e exportações. / From the 1990s, there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (APC) around the world. Within this world trade change of scenery, Latin America was a key player in the creation of new agreements. However, due to historical political and economic instability in the region, there has never been an integration, mainly due to the protectionist nature of countries. In this sense, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico) comes with a proposal for a different economic integration, aiming to unite their economies further and be open to trade negotiations with third countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the bilateral trade potential between the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA), through the gravitational trade model in panel data with fixed effects for year 2013, with a sample of 98 countries. The results showed that the estimated trade for the year 2013 was only 1% below the actual trade, equivalent to US $ 240.6 million. Analysis by pair of countries showed that most benefited from the creation of the Pacific Alliance would be Mexico, considerably expanding its imports and exports.

A soja vem se destacando como proteína vegetal e seu consumo deve aumentar nos próximos anos, acompanhando a tendência geral de demanda crescente por alimento. No entanto, o aumento da oferta de soja, assim como de outros produtos agrícolas, pode gerar impacto negativo para o meio ambiente, o que levanta uma série de preocupações sobre este setor, exigindo resposta dos agentes da cadeia produtiva de soja para que essas preocupações não se tornem restrições de demanda e altere os padrões de comércio. Este estudo foi estruturado em formato de artigos científicos, trazendo, no primeiro deles, uma análise qualitativa e crítica das iniciativas do setor sojicultor para atender aos novos paradigmas relacionados aos requisitos ambientais, e, particularmente, aqueles impostos pelo mercado internacional. O conjunto de iniciativas realizadas pelo governo brasileiro, quer seja pelos agentes da cadeia, governo ou organizações não-governamentais, tende a se complementar, contribuindo para uma proteção mais efetiva do meio ambiente. A Moratória da Soja não conseguiu diminuir a ocupação da soja em áreas desflorestadas dos estados do Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia, situados no bioma Amazônia; mas o avanço foi muito pequeno, principalmente quando comparado ao que ocorreu nas áreas em que a Moratória não incide, como é o caso do cerrado mato-grossense e de MATOPIBA. O programa Soja Plus, além de preencher a lacuna do governo brasileiro em extensão rural, abrange elementos tão relevantes quanto a conversão de vegetação, como o uso responsável de herbicidas. O segundo artigo apresenta uma análise empírica, visando quantificar o impacto dos requisitos ambientais nas exportações do complexo soja. Os resultados da equação gravitacional, estimada para o período de 1993 a 2014, tendo como variável dependente as exportações de soja em grão, farelo e óleo de soja dos três maiores exportadores do complexo soja, Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina, indicam que a queda na razão de decoupling, variável proxy do meio ambiente, impacta positivamente as exportações do complexo soja. Isto comprova a tese de Porter e Linde de que é possível produzir de forma ambientalmente correta e aumentar a competitividade no mercado internacional. / Soy has gained highlight as vegetable protein and its consumption should increase in the coming years, following the general trend of increasing demand for food. However, the increase in soybean supply, as well as other agricultural products, can have a negative impact on the environment, which raises a number of concerns about this sector, requiring response of the soy productive chain to these concerns do not become demand restrictions and change trade patterns. This study was structured in scientific articles format, bringing, in the first of them, a qualitative and critical analysis of soybean industry initiatives to meet the new paradigms that emerge related to environmental requirements and, particularly, those imposed by the international market. The set of initiatives undertaken whether by the Brazilian government, chain actors, government or non-governmental organizations, tends to complement and contribute to a more effective protection of the environment. Soy Moratorium failed to reduce the soybean occupation in deforested areas in the Amazon biom of Mato Grosso, Para and Rondonia states; but the increase was very small, especially when compared to what occurred in areas where the Moratorium does not apply, as is the case of Mato Grosso cerrado (savanna) and MATOPIBA. The Soja Plus program, in addition to filling the gap of the Brazilian government in rural extension, addresses relevant issues as important as vegetation conversion, such as the responsible use of herbicides. The second article presents an empirical analysis to quantify the impact of environmental requirements on the soy complex exports. The results of the gravity equation, estimated for the period from 1993 to 2014, to soybean, soymeal and soybean oil exports from the three world largest exporters, Brazil, the United States and Argentina, indicate that the drop in the decoupling ratio, a proxy for environment variable, impacts posively the soy complex exports. This reassures the Porter and Linde\'s thesis that it is possible to produce in an environmentally friendly way while increasing competitiveness in the international market.

O investimento estrangeiro direto - IED é um dos principais fluxos de capitais internacionais, sendo um fator importante para o balanço de pagamentos, além de ser considerado também um condutor de transferências tecnológicas entre países e indutor de desenvolvimento econômico. O estudo dos determinantes deste tipo de investimento transnacional, apesar de relativamente recente, tem ganhado relevância no debate econômico. Através da abordagem do modelo gravitacional, este trabalho explora diversas metodologias econométricas para a estimação desse modelo. O método Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood - PPML mostrou estatísticas mais robustas para as estimações, indo de encontro com a literatura econômica que o elege como o método mais adequado para as características dos dados utilizados na investigação do problema em questão. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que, além das variáveis usualmente utilizados na abordagem clássica do modelo gravitacional, como tamanho do PIB e distância, os fatores ligados ao ambiente de negócios também são significantes em explicar a determinação do IED bilateral. Desta maneira, a aplicação de reformas e medidas com o objetivo de melhorar o ambiente de negócios é desejável para a aumentar a atratividade de recursos nesta modalidade de investimento. / The foreign direct investment - FDI is one of the main international capital flows, being considered an important component of the balance of payments and also a driver of technological transfers between countries and promoter of economic development. The study of that kind of transnational investment, although relatively recent, has gained importance in the economic debate. This work explores many econometric methodologies in a gravity model approach. The Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method - PPML showed more robust results to the estimations, as appointed by the economic literature. The results obtained showed that, beyond the usual variables used in the gravity models, such as GDP size and distance, variables connected to the business environment are significant to explain the determination of bilateral FDI. Therefore, reforms and measures aimed to improve the business environment are desirable for increasing the attractiveness of that kind of international investment.

A integração comercial entre países vem ocorrendo através de negociações multilaterais e acordos regionais. As teorias de comércio internacional dizem que as primeiras provocam aumento de bem-estar. Entretanto, não há consenso sobre os efeitos dos segundos. O papel deste trabalho é justamente avaliar os impactos de dois acordos comerciais, o Mercosul e o Nafta, sobre dois critérios de bem-estar, a criação e o desvio de comércio. Isso é feito através da estimação de equações gravitacionais para dados em painel, com a inclusão de variáveis dummy para captar a relação intra e extra-bloco, conforme metodologia apresentada por Endoh (1999). Os resultados apontaram que não ocorreu criação de comércio em ambos os acordos. O Nafta foi seguido por desvio de comércio e o Mercosul apresentou dificuldades na mensuração do mesmo. / The commercial integration between countries has been taking place through multilateral negotiations and regional agreements. Economic theories of international trade say that the first one improves welfare. However, there is no consensus about the second one. The aim of this dissertation is just to evaluate the effects of two agreements, Mercosur and Nafta, on two concepts of welfare, trade creation and trade diversion. This is done through the estimation of gravity equations by panel data methods, with dummy variables to detect intra-bloc and extra-bloc relations, according to the methodology of Endoh (1999). The results suggested that trade creation has not occurred in both agreements. Nafta was followed by trade diversion and Mercosur presented difficulties in measuring this component.

Esta dissertação foi realizada como requisito parcial para aquisição do título de mestre em Relações Internacionais pelo Instituto de relações Internacionais da Universidade de São Paulo (IRI-USP). Ela compreende dois artigos diferentes. No primeiro, discute-se a teoria da integração regional a partir de abordagens da Ciência Política e da Economia Internacional. Para tanto, desenvolve um estudo de caso a respeito do processo de integração regional na África, qual seja, compreender os resultados no domínio da cooperação econômica a respeito do CEDEAO (Comunidade Econômica dos Estados da África Ocidental). O argumento principal do artigo é o de que o processo pode ser lido de acordo com a perspetiva neofuncionalista da integração regional. No segundo artigo avalia-se o efeito da criação da CEDEAO através do modelo Gravitacional. Trabalha-se com dados em painel e corrige-se o viés de seleção para estimar o efeito do acordo regional em termos de criação e desvio de comércio. Os resultados indicam que a CEDEAO nem promoveu a criação de comércio intra-bloco e nem produziu o efeito de desviar o comércio internacional com terceiros países de fora do bloco, em benefício dos membros. / This research was conducted as partial requirement for the achievement of the master\'s degree in International Relations at the Institute of International Relations, University of São Paulo (IRI-USP). It comprises two separate articles. First, given the economic objective of the initial motivation for the establishment of ECOWAS, we question why the ill=observed results were not an impediment to the pursuit of the integration. The interpretative insights were derived from historical and political context in dialogue with the neo-functionalist theory of regional integration. The article`s main argument is that the challenge of sub-regional security led to the outgrow of political objectives. Understanding that there is a new convergence of interests, the bloc undergoes constant pursuit of a consistent institutional matrix including the objectives which were added, and in the other hand, reflects the degree of involvement of the various national groups that determine the external behavior of each member country. In the second paper, we attempt to evaluate the effect of the instruments of the trade policy on welfare in ECOWAS applying a Gravitational Model. Using panel data and correcting for selection bias, we estimate the effect of the agreement in terms of trade creation and trade diversion. Results show that ECOWAS did not diverted trade, but had a small effect on intra block trade. The variable that captures the effect of trade creation is not statistically significant.

China has undergone significant urban growth and industrialization over the last 30 years and its incredible development continues to move ahead at an increasingly rapid pace. In terms of urban expansion, China has just recently surpassed the world’s average urbanization rate of 50%, as it moves its massive population from rural to urban areas at an astonishing speed. It’s massive population and fast urbanizing speed aside, China is also unique in terms of its socio-political system and historical-cultural context: it is a hybrid of government planning and market forces. Since it encompasses a large part of the global population and has had a vastly different urbanization experience than that of Western countries, around which most theories are based, studying China’s urbanization is an opportunity to contribute to the field of urban studies in an unprecedented manner. However, these differences also make it difficult to develop a comprehensive study of China’s urban system since the predominant theories in the field are best suited to Western cities. This research rises to this challenge by systematically studying the relationship between the socioeconomic and biophysical processes in the Chinese urban system to understand the interaction between human and physical factors, and the landscape patterns that result from these interactions. This complex urban system is examined using a hierarchical, top-down approach. At the highest level is a Macro-scale analysis of the national urban system, followed by a study of the regional urban system: the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area at the Meso-scale, and finally a Micro-scale examination with a focus on the city of Beijing. Since urban systems develop over both time and space, the urban system is analyzed spatio-temporally on all three levels. Research at the national scale is composed of two parts. First, the challenges and opportunities of China’s urban development since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 are investigated in a general context. The institutional barriers that impede the management and continuation of China’s urban development are also discussed. Rank-size Analysis and satellite images are used to present the structural transitions of city scaling and urban clusters. These changes come with a series of challenges that are also iterated and discussed. This is followed by an analysis of the spatial distribution and transition patterns of China’s urban system using Centrographic Analysis, particularly since the post-1979 reforms. Second, the Macro-scale research focuses on a study of the urban hierarchy that is based on inter-city interactions as determined by the Synthesized Gravity Model (SGM). Under this model socioeconomic variables are synthesized and represented by the Influential Factor, while the Function Distance is derived from a Network Analysis that is based on multiple transportation methods. As an improvement on the conventional Gravity Model (GM), the SGM is used to accurately establish and represent the nodal structure of China’s urban system, the evolution of its hierarchical structure, and the relationships that exist between the nodal structure and socioeconomic factors. The results based on the SGM indicate that China’s national urban system is characterized by the emergence of urban clusters with stronger inter-city interactions since the 1990s. However, development among cities within certain urban clusters is not even, although the general pattern indicates a lessening inequality among cities. Spatially, while most cities at the top of the hierarchy are located in the east of China, cities in the middle and west of the country are also gaining higher positions in the hierarchy over time. On the Meso-scale, the applicability of the Cellular Automata (CA)-based SLEUTH model for regional urban growth pattern is studied through a focus on the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei). By integrating socioeconomic factors into a modified SLEUTH model, the urban growth dynamics and future development scenarios of the area are simulated and predicted. The results based on the CA model show that this region is characterized by a dynamic development pattern with high spreading and breeding growth rules that relies greatly on the growing transportation systems. It also allows for the projection of three possible future urban growth scenarios, each occurring under different environmental and development conditions, showing the future urban growth with or without further intervention. This research confirms that four factors play essential roles in the formulation of the urban growth mechanism of the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area: Urban policies, Industry restructuring, Rural-urban migration, and Reclassification of urban boundaries. The Micro-scale study of Beijing is conducted from two perspectives: the social and natural. The social aspect adopts the factorial ecology approach to identify the social landscape patterns and the factors that have shaped Beijing’s social space in 1990 and 2000. The social mosaic has experienced a significant change due to suburbanization, resulting in a more dynamic and complex internal structure since the 2000s. From a natural perspective, Beijing’s physical landscape patterns are extracted by processing remotely sensed images that have the same temporal span. The physical change through landscape metrics demonstrates that Beijing’s expansion has generated a more complex and fragmented land use/cover pattern. Meanwhile, transportation systems play a significant role in urban expansion, although the expansion across the space (zonal rings and directional sectors) is not even. Finally, the relationship between the social and physical landscapes is quantitatively defined by the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) technique, using physical landscape metrics as dependent variables and social areas as independent variables. The GWR is able to demonstrate the relationship between the social and physical landscapes at this level: as a city’s social mosaic becomes more varied over time it results in the fragmentation of that city’s physical space.