Submitted by Mariana Dornelles Vargas (marianadv) on 2015-03-19T15:00:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 estimativas_volume.pdf: 602839 bytes, checksum: f10648288eb6067186326c409eb15d41 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-19T15:00:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 estimativas_volume.pdf: 602839 bytes, checksum: f10648288eb6067186326c409eb15d41 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-09-24 / Nenhuma / O propósito central deste trabalho é estimar os fluxos de comércio internacional bilateral entre os países BRICs - Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China - em períodos futuros. Para estas estimações, são consideradas as previsões realizadas pela consultoria econômica Goldman Sachs (2001) que, além de detalhar valores estimados para o PIB e a renda per capita dos BRICs até o ano de 2050, apontam que estes quatro países estarão entre as seis maiores economias do planeta em torno de 2040. O estudo utiliza um modelo gravitacional baseado numa amostra de 57 países para o período 2000 - 2007, a fim de obter-se uma equação normal para explicar o comércio internacional no mundo atual. A aplicação de dois métodos de estimação - MQO e Tobit - gerou uma coleção de possíveis coeficientes, que foram testados técnica e qualitativamente, para escolher-se as duas equações mais adequadas para as previsões dos fluxos bilaterais de comércio dos BRICs. Finalmente, os coeficientes destas equações foram arranjados para, combinados a dados reais e às estimações de PIB e renda per capita futuros construídos pela Goldman Sachs, prever intervalos de confiança para o tamanho dos fluxos bilaterais de importação entre os BRICs num cenário de curto (2010), médio (2020) e longo prazo (2030). O modelo gravitacional aqui usado é um instrumento de forecasting, validando esta fronteira de utilização para a equação gravitacional de comércio. Seus resultados mostram que o volume de comércio 'intra-BRICs' crescerá mais intensamente do que o próprio PIB destes países, podendo se multiplicar 10 vezes entre 2010 e 2020, e 50 vezes entre 2010 e 2030, gerando uma maior interdependência que poderá estimular as relações articuladas entre estas economias para garantir a sustentabilidade de seu crescimento econômico. / The main purpose of this research is to estimate international trade flows for all the existent bilateral relations between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the future time. This process starts by considering the estimations made by the investment bank Goldman Sachs (2001), which released a study that not only estimated amounts for the GDP and GDP per capita for the BRICs until the year 2050, but also revealed that these countries will position themselves, no exception, between the six biggest economies of the world by around the year 2040. This study adopts a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in the world in current days. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of possible parameters was generated, which were all tested on a technical and on a qualitative basis, with the aim to choose the two most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). In this way, the gravity model is here a pure forecasting model, validating this bound of utilization for the instrument. The results are showing that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more intense than the GDP of these countries itself, meaning an unprecedented internationalization process featured by the construction of a web of high interdependence between these economies. Trade between the BRICs could rise 10 times within 2010 and 2020, and 50 times within 2010 and 2050. International trade among the BRICs will definitely be necessary for them to sustain economic growth.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2017-05-08T17:00:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Sílvia Letícia Bampi_.pdf: 910754 bytes, checksum: ffe5304476a854001839a4742d72230a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-08T17:00:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sílvia Letícia Bampi_.pdf: 910754 bytes, checksum: ffe5304476a854001839a4742d72230a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-30 / Nenhuma / O comércio internacional tem apresentado um crescimento mais expressivo que o produto interno das nações. A globalização das economias em conjunto com a ascensão das economias asiáticas ao comércio internacional, alteraram os modelos de consumo das economias industrializadas, mudando a estrutura internacional de comércio. Desta forma, com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade de expansão do comércio do Brasil com as economias asiáticas, dada a probabilidade de ampliação de seu crescimento e redução das práticas protecionistas, o presente estudo buscou estimar o comércio potencial do continente asiático com o Brasil no período de 2000 a 2014. Para tanto, utilizou-se a equação gravitacional através de dados em painel e efeitos fixos e uma amostra de 74 países. As estimativas identificaram que existem significativas possibilidades de expansão de comércio brasileiro com a Ásia, principalmente em relação as exportações que em valores representaria uma elevação neste fluxo de U$$ 22.540 milhões. Destaque para possibilidade de expansão dos fluxos de exportação do Brasil com Filipinas, China e Coréia do Sul, 313,57% (U$$ 538 milhões), 36,99% (U$$ 19.115 milhões) e 33,63% (U$$ 1.650 milhões), respectivamente. Além destes, Tailândia, Singapura e Malásia também apresentaram um potencial de comércio acima do efetivo, quando observado o Brasil como exportador. Nos anos examinados, as importações potenciais brasileiras destas economias ficaram aquém das efetivas. / International trade has shown more growth than the domestic product of the nations. Globalization of economies coupled with the rise of Asian economies to international trade has altered the patterns of consumption of industrialized economies, causing the trade international structure to change. Then, in order to verify the possibility the Brazil's trade expansion along with the Asian economies, given the probability of increasing its growth and reducing protectionist practices, the present study tried to estimate the potential trade of the Asian continent with Brazil from 2000 to 2014. For this purpose, the gravitational equation was used through panel data and fixed effects and a sample of 74 countries. The estimates have identified that there are significant possibilities of expansion with relation to the trade between of Brazilian and Asia, mainly when it comes to exports, which would represent an increase of U$ 22,540 million. For this reason it is important to emphasize the possibility of expanding the Brazil's export flow between Brazil and Philippines as well as Brazil and China and Brazil and South Korea, at 313.57% (US$ 538 million), 36.99% (US$ 19,115 million) and 33.63% (U$$ 1,650 million), respectively. Besides each of the latter, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia also showed a trade potential which was over the real flow. In the years herein studied, the Brazilian potential imports towards these economies were lower than the real ones.

A partir da década de 1990, houve uma proliferação de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC) ao redor do mundo. Dentro deste cenário de mudança do comércio mundial, a América Latina foi um importante ator na criação de novos acordos. Entretanto, devido a histórica instabilidade política e econômica da região, nunca houve uma integração de fato, devido principalmente ao caráter protecionista dos países. Nesse sentido, a Aliança do Pacífico (Chile, Colômbia, Peru e México) vem com uma proposta de integração econômica diferente, com objetivo de unir suas economias ainda mais e estar aberta às negociações comerciais com terceiros países. O objetivo deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros da Aliança do Pacífico (AP), através do modelo gravitacional de comércio por meio de dados em painel com efeitos fixos para o ano de 2013, com uma amostra de 98 países. Os resultados mostraram que o comércio estimado para o ano de 2013 ficou apenas 1% abaixo do comércio efetivo, o equivalente a US$ 240,6 milhões. A análise por par de países mostrou que o mais beneficiado com a criação da AP seria o México, expandindo consideravelmente suas importações e exportações. / From the 1990s, there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (APC) around the world. Within this world trade change of scenery, Latin America was a key player in the creation of new agreements. However, due to historical political and economic instability in the region, there has never been an integration, mainly due to the protectionist nature of countries. In this sense, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico) comes with a proposal for a different economic integration, aiming to unite their economies further and be open to trade negotiations with third countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the bilateral trade potential between the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA), through the gravitational trade model in panel data with fixed effects for year 2013, with a sample of 98 countries. The results showed that the estimated trade for the year 2013 was only 1% below the actual trade, equivalent to US $ 240.6 million. Analysis by pair of countries showed that most benefited from the creation of the Pacific Alliance would be Mexico, considerably expanding its imports and exports.

This bachelor thesis examines the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Mexico and the countries that resembles the European Union(EU) prior to the expansion in 2004, hereafter(EU15). The purpose is to analyze the effects of the FTA between the trading parties and investigate whether the FTA has resulted in positive effects on export volumes. The model includes 16 countries and is estimated with panel data between the years 1997-2016. We apply a gravity model as econometric framework and perform two regressions, one with fixed effects and one with random effects. Our results suggest that export volumes from Mexico to the EU on an aggregated level have increased for Mexico and the EU has increased. However, in contrast to previous estimates, our results show that the FTA have generated negative effects on trade creation between the trading parties.

L’objectif de cette thèse est l’étude de la croissance et du développement économique des pays émergents à travers l’Investissement Direct Etranger. Les pays émergents adoptent des stratégies d’attractivité des IDE, lesquels favorisent ensuite l’assimilation des transferts technologiques qu’ils véhiculent. Ces stratégies sont articulées autour de plusieurs points : surcroît de réglementation, instauration d’un système de bonne gouvernance, renforcement de la stabilité macroéconomique et développement des infrastructures et du capital humain. Nous nous intéressons aux pays de la région MENA qui viennent de subir des changements politiques et sociaux profonds. Des pays que l’Europe occidentale gagnerait à accompagner, pour assurer le succès de cette phase transitionnelle. C’est pourquoi, nous prenons exemple sur les pays de la région PECO au lendemain de la chute du mur de Berlin et sur les pays de l’Europe occidentale au lendemain de la seconde guerre mondiale. A partir de la décennie 1980, suite à l’effondrement des cours du pétrole qui a eu des conséquences majeures sur leurs économies fragiles, les pays de la région MENA se sont efforcés de diversifier leur économie. Dans un premier chapitre, nous montrons la nature des canaux, à travers lesquels se concrétisent les effets des IDE sur la croissance des pays émergents. A partir des théories récentes de la croissance économique, les politiques d’attraction des IDE menées par les pays émergents constituent un élément moteur de la croissance, à partir du moment où ces pays possèdent un capital humain capable d’absorber les technologies et le savoir-faire véhiculés par l’IDE. Dans un deuxième chapitre et à travers diverses méthodes empiriques, nous établissons les déterminants des IDE. A l’aide de comparaisons à l’échelle régionale, nous nous focalisons, plus particulièrement, sur les déterminants institutionnels à court terme. En nous appuyant par la suite sur un modèle gravitationnel dans les troisième et quatrième chapitres, nous mettons en évidence les déterminants essentiels de l’IDE dans les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO), ainsi que les éventuelles différences de comportement des investisseurs étrangers envers l’ancienne UE-15 et les PECO, et ce, dix ans après l’élargissement de la Communauté européenne. Nous montrons ainsi un glissement à la fois dans l’orientation géographique des investisseurs mais aussi dans leurs motivations. Nous n’observons donc pas de rapprochement des déterminants des PECO vers ceux de l’UE-15. En revanche, l’effet de concurrence fiscale tend à se diffuser dans les stratégies des firmes des PECO vers l’ensemble de l’Union européenne. Ceci coïncide avec la survenue de la crise qui a occasionné une plus grande volatilité dans les flux d’IDE. Dans le cinquième chapitre, nous analysons à long terme les déterminants institutionnels des IDE dans la région MENA. Nous mettons en relief une panoplie d’indicateurs institutionnels afin d’identifier leur importance relative sur les flux d’IDE ; et ce, après le contrôle des déterminants macroéconomiques. Nous prenons en considération les effets de retournement de conjoncture économique, dus principalement aux récessions et aux crises économiques. Nos résultats indiquent que les indicateurs institutionnels sont positivement reliés aux IDE. Enfin, dans le sixième chapitre, et pour la même région, nous examinons la relation entre la croissance économique, l’IDE, les exportations, la population active et l’investissement en capital. Ladite relation demeurant l'un des problèmes les plus importants de la littérature économique, elle rencontre un regain d'intérêt, principalement pour les pays de la région MENA, qui souffrent de problèmes sociaux, économiques et de retard technologique. En utilisant l’approche ARDL, nous montrons enfin qu’il existe une relation de cointégration entre ces variables, aussi bien à long terme qu’à court terme. / This thesis aims at studying the growth and the economic development of emerging countries through Foreign Direct Investment. Emerging countries adopt FDI-luring strategies, which subsequently guarantee the assimilation of the technological transfers they convey. Such strategies are built around several axes: increased regulation, the implementation of a good governance system, the invigorating of macroeconomic stability and the development of infrastructure and human resources. We focus on the OECD countries that have just undergone profound political and social changes. Indeed, Western Europe has to support these countries to ensure the success of this transitional phase. It is precisely for this reason that we follow the example of the CEEC countries in the wake of the Berlin Wall fall on the one hand and the Western European countries in the aftermath of WWII on the other. Starting from the 1980s, after the collapse of oil prices- which had tremendous repercussions on fragile economies-, the OECD countries sought to diversify their economy. In the first chapter, we show the nature of the channels that materialize the FDI effects on the emerging countries’ growth. With reference to the latest theories of economic growth, the FDI attraction policies adopted by the emerging countries represent a driving force for growth as long as these countries are endowed with human resources capable of absorbing the technologies and the know-how conveyed by the FDIs. In the second chapter, relying on a variety of empirical methods, we establish the FDI determinants. More particularly, we focus on the short-term institutional determinants at a national comparative scale.Then, in the third and fourth chapters, relying on the gravitational model, we highlight the main FDI determinants in the Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) as well as the possible differences of foreign investors’ behavior towards the former EU-15 and the CEEC, and that is ten years after the extension of the European Community. Thus, we show a fall in the investors’ geographical orientation as well as motivations. Therefore, there is no reconciliation between the CEEC’s determinants and those of the EU-15. However, the tax competition seems to spread among the CEEC firms’ policiestowards the EU as a whole. This concurs with the financial crisis which brought about a bigger volatility in the FDI flows. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the long run institutional FDI determinants in the OECD region. We emphasize a range of institutional indicators in order to identify their relative impact on the FDI flows; and this after having examined the macroeconomic determinants. We take into consideration the effects of economic conjuncture downturns, which are mainly due to recessions and economic crises. Our findings show that the institutional indicators are positively related to FDIs.Finally, in the sixth chapter and for the same region, we investigate the relationship between economic growth, FDI, exportation, workforce and capital investment. Since the so-called relationship is still one of the main problems in the economic literature, it has witnessed renewed interest, mainly for the OECD countries, which are affected by social and economic problems as well as a technological gap. Based on an ARDL approach, we eventually show that there is eventually a cointegration relationship between these variables, both in the long run as well as in the short run.

Thailand has been one of significant recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) among developing countries over the last 30 years, and has recorded rapid and sustained growth rates in a number of different industrial categories. Thailand has shown a clear policy transition for foreign investment over time from an import-substitution regime to an export-oriented regime. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (1985-1996), Thailand had the fastest growing level of exports in manufactured goods among Asian economies. FDI plays a significant role in the Thai economy. Thailand has been pursuing different foreign investment policies at different times depending on the development objectives and economic situation in the country. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the determinants of FDI and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Thailand using the extended Gravity Model. Panel data is used to estimate and evaluate the empirical results based on the data for the years 1980 to 2004. It also examines the FDI flows between different locations and their geographical distances in Thailand. The primary research question addresses what factors motivate, attract, and sustain the FDI and FPI in Thailand. In addition, this study also examines the effects of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the inflows of FDI and FPI into Thailand. The results show that the inflows of FDI in Thailand, which are supply-driven, are significantly influenced by its 21 largest investing partners. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis has no impact on the determinants of the inflows of FDI into Thailand, but positively influences the inflows of FPI into Thailand. Our results also show that increases in GDP and trade between investing partners and Thailand potentially attract more FDI and FPI into Thailand. Investing partners closer to Thailand draw more portfolio investment into Thailand than distant partners – emphasising that distance has a negative impact on the portfolio investment but a negligible impact on the FDI.

The principal purpose of this study is to provide a refined empirical investigation concerning country-specific determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade (IIT,) in relation to South Africa using the gravity model of trade in a panel data setting. Prior to investigating the case of South Africa's intra-industry trade a critical review of the relevant theoretical, methodologcal, and empirical literature is provided. The study operationalises the theoretical dstinction between horizontal and vertical IIT using the latest methodology of decomposing total IIT into horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIq and vertical intra-industry trade (WIT,). Thts study makes several advances on earlier empirical studies of intra-industry trade determinants. These include the introduction of new countq-specific determinants of intraindustry trade that previous studies have not examined. Furthermore, it is the first empirical study that traces the relationshp between intra-industry trade flows and intellectual property rights (IPRs). Moreover, to ensure the sensitivity and robustness of the results, several econometric approaches have been used in estimating the gravity model of South Africa's intra-industry trade: the consistent coefficient approach, the fixed effects approach, the random effects approach, and the between effects approach. The econometric results are generally satisfactory in terms of economic interpretation and statistical significance and thus offer new empirical validation to the theoretical explanatory variables. The key findngs suggest the following: the volume of South Africa's IIT has increased during the study period and its WIT exceeds its HIIT. The latter result reflects the nature of South Africa's trade as it imports high valued added products and exports primary and mineral products. South Africa's intra-industry trade and its two components are positively related to market size and standard of living, and negatively related to geographcal distance. Furthermore, separately, the IPRs and the imitation ability of South Africa's tradmg partners are not important factors in determining IIT flows; however, the interaction between them is an important factor. Thts study also reveals South Africa should pursue its intra-industry trade with rest of world concentrating on local industries that produce most competitive varieties, absorbing labor and other resources from the production of other varieties.

<p>Distance is of great influence when deciding whom to trade with. This thesis examines how the importance of distance in international trade has evolved. This is done using an extended generalized gravity model, which includes population, real exchange rate and a dummy variable for membership in the European Union. Using data for the EU27 and the four largest economies in the world outside of EU, this model estimates the effect of distance on trade from 1980 to 2005. This thesis shows that the impact of distance has evolved towards having a greater negative effect on trade during the observed years. The reason for this could be a development towards regional trade, at the expense of long-distance trade.</p>

Considering the impact of transaction costs on trade volumes and prices in Europe, in our thesis, we carried out an overview of the costs of crossing borders and an assessment of the degree of fragmentation of the product market in this world area. Throughout the analysis, we paid attention to the country and/ or industry dimension and at how country- and sector-specific patterns affect the European product market integration process. A special attention is also devoted to the model specifications and estimation techniques. Having discussed extensively the foundations of the gravity equation and the properties of the gravity model with the aim of empirical works in the first chapter of our dissertation, chapter two provides a first assessment of the extent of the integration in Europe by measuring the trade intensity via an augmented gravity equation. The study measures the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on Members’ trade in the European zone and highlights that despite the ongoing enlargement process of its free trade area, the European zone displays rather weak RTAs impacts - in comparison with what one could expect -. The chapter also highlights a number of caveats and difficulties when one wants to accurately measure the extent of trade creation brought about the RTAs in Europe. In particular, the existence of zero observations (non observed commodity flows) between country pairs might have important drawbacks in the estimations. Since disaggregated trade data can be very insightful, chapter three implements such an analysis. Using a gravity-like equation as well, it provides a border effect estimations carried out in a multi-country and multi-sector context. Our findings reveal that remaining technical barriers to trade, market structure and degree of product differentiation play an important role in the explanation of border effects. Furthermore, our results succeed to derive a strongly negative impact of nominal exchange rate volatility on trade, whereas traditional gravity specifications fail to identify this clearly – when regional dummies are introduced-. Hence, chapter two and three provide an overview, via the trade channel, of the degree of integration of the product market in Europe: While European agreements (EAs) in terms of trade are effective, bilateral trade relationships face steady impediments. As expected, intra-EAs trade increases and exports from Member States to non Member States decline. The trade obstacles have many sources. In particular, volatility of the nominal exchange rate is found to have trade-reducing effects. Our results also underscore the interest of using sector disaggregated date since we find that the degree of product differentiation and the market structure enter in the explanation of border effects. Moreover, the various approaches to harmonize the remaining technical barriers to trade on sector desegregation basis were found to act in reducing on the European Union border effect. As for chapter four, it re-visits the issue of price convergence within the EMU. Specifically, we test whether the Law of One Price (LOOP) can be validated over the period 1984-2004. Our results fail to support the LOOP for a large majority of sectors and countries under examination. Furthermore, our findings reveal half-lives of deviation from the LOOP suggesting a price adjustment which is globally less slow that commonly estimated in the literature. Indeed, the EMU is anticipated to affect the behaviour of trading firms that should result in a faster cross-border transmission of price movements across Member States. When attempting to explain the factors at work in the LOOP failure, we highlight that beside the European convergence process, the arbitrage channel explain a non negligible part of the country mean reversion in terms of relative prices. Nevertheless, mixed evidence is found for the impact of cross- country and cross-sector variables.

This thesis investigates the determinants of Taiwan’s import changes and the underlying factors of the decreasing Swedish export to Taiwan between 1994 and 2005. The empirical study includes 36 countries from both the Pacific Rim and OECD. Based on a modified gravity model of trade, the regression model aims to examine how GDP growth in the exporting country, exchange rate changes, common language, and membership in APEC affect Taiwan’s import volume. The result shows estimates with expected signs, with 49.8 percent of the vari-ance in Taiwan’s changed import volume explained by the exogenous variables. Exchange rate change and language are statistically significant. Data on commodity groups of importance for Sweden and Taiwan are also ex-amined, and they show that Taiwan has changed its import demand and has started to import goods other than those Sweden in previous years strongly exported to Taiwan. Taiwan’s regional trading partners have also gained export shares at the expense of Swedish exports. The results are in line with theory and it will be hard for Sweden in the future to compete with the increasing regional trade of East Asia where common lan-guage and culture are of big importance.