Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This study investigates severe weather events occurring in the Midwest, Central, and Northeastern United States from May through September 2004. Severe weather events are pinpointed using tornado and hail reports and correlating them with NEXRAD radar data to determine maximum intensity of the event. Severe storms that occur within 30 minutes of a model forecast hour are catalogued for further investigation. Once these events are diagnosed, ETA-212 and MM5 model data is regridded, centered on the storm. Divergence values at 300 hPa are extracted from the model data for each storm event. These storms are then grouped in three ways: all storms, tornadic storms, and hail producing storms. The averaged maximum divergence values from the ETA-212 for each group are examined from the 0 hour analysis through the 21 hour forecast. From these averaged divergence values, a matrix of recommended divergence threshold values is derived. For the MM5 data, a subset of storms is examined. The MM5 and ETA-212 are run on an identical set of storms, and the divergence forecasts are compared. / Captain, United States Air Force

De acordo com a literatura os tornados são exemplificados como uma violenta coluna de ar giratória, que se forma a partir da base de uma nuvem de tempestade, visualizado como uma nuvem em forma de funil cuja circulação toca o solo. Estes eventos atmosféricos severos causam grandes conseqüências para a sociedade atual e ocorrem com freqüência nas regiões sul e sudeste do território nacional. Diante deste contexto, a presente dissertação tem como objetivo apresentar a análise da ocorrência de tornados nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil entre o período de 1960 a 2008 e sua correlação entre topografia e uso e ocupação do solo utilizando imagens de satélites da Agência Européia Espacial (sigla em inglês ESA GlobalCover 2009), além de dados de topografia da missão SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) e levantamentos do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) e IGC (Instituto Geográfico e Cartográfico). Para a análise dos tornados foram escolhidos quatro municípios (Indaiatuba-SP, Lins-SP, Guaraciaba-SC e São Gabriel-RS) selecionados pela grande recorrência de eventos ocorridos em seus territórios e exaustivamente estudados, caracterizando sua gênese, desenvolvimento e dissipação, indicando seus parâmetros meteorológicos, além da correlação entre seu traçado, intensidade (Escala E-Fujita) e topografia. Foram também analisadas relações de sazonalidade de ocorrência destes eventos e sua concentração espacial. Conclui-se que o uso e ocupação não é um fator substancial na ocorrência de tornados, a maior parte dos eventos ocorrem em regiões de planalto e com poucas variações topográficas e a topografia interfere na intensidade dos eventos aumentado sua escala de estragos em áreas de menor declividade. / According to literature, tornadoes are defined as violently rotating columns of air that are in contact with both the surface of the earth and a cloud, typically in the form of a funnel whose narrow end touches the earth. These severe atmospheric events have drastic consequences for society today and they occur frequently in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil. In this context, the purpose of this dissertation is to present an analysis of the occurrence of tornadoes in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil during the period from 1960 to 2008, and how they are related to local topography and land use and occupation. For this analysis, we used satellite images supplied by the European Space Agency (ESA - Global Cover 2009), as well as topographical data from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) mission and research by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and IGC (Geographical and Mapping Institute). Four municipalities were chosen for this analysis (Indaiatuba-SP, Lins-SP, Guaraciaba-SC and São Gabriel-RS), selected because of the significant incidence of tornado events within their territories, which have been exhaustively studied. Their origins, development and dispersion were characterized and their meteorological parameters were established, as was the correlation between their trajectories, intensity (EFujita Scale) and the local topography. Seasonal aspects of the occurrence of these events and their spatial concentrations were also analyzed. We conclude that land use and occupation is not a substantial factor in the occurrence of tornadoes, as most of these events occur in highland regions with small topographical variations, considering that topography interferes in the intensity of the events in the sense that the intensity of these events is increased in flatter areas.

The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

This study addressed emergency management preparedness and local citizen recovery from a disaster event through a case study of the Elkhart County, Indiana 18 October 2007 tornado. A discussion of the disaster recovery process of Amish households in northern Indiana enables local emergency managers to gain a better understanding of disaster recovery needs for specialized populations. The primary objective to be addressed by this thesis was to create a tornado climatology for emergency managers to use as part of a comprehensive, local hazard analysis. Secondary to that was to examine the differences in Amish and non-Amish response to a tornado event in Indiana’s Homeland Security District 2 and formulate suggestions for tailoring local emergency management programs to this diverse community. / Department of Geography

De acordo com a literatura os tornados são exemplificados como uma violenta coluna de ar giratória, que se forma a partir da base de uma nuvem de tempestade, visualizado como uma nuvem em forma de funil cuja circulação toca o solo. Estes eventos atmosféricos severos causam grandes conseqüências para a sociedade atual e ocorrem com freqüência nas regiões sul e sudeste do território nacional. Diante deste contexto, a presente dissertação tem como objetivo apresentar a análise da ocorrência de tornados nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil entre o período de 1960 a 2008 e sua correlação entre topografia e uso e ocupação do solo utilizando imagens de satélites da Agência Européia Espacial (sigla em inglês ESA GlobalCover 2009), além de dados de topografia da missão SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) e levantamentos do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) e IGC (Instituto Geográfico e Cartográfico). Para a análise dos tornados foram escolhidos quatro municípios (Indaiatuba-SP, Lins-SP, Guaraciaba-SC e São Gabriel-RS) selecionados pela grande recorrência de eventos ocorridos em seus territórios e exaustivamente estudados, caracterizando sua gênese, desenvolvimento e dissipação, indicando seus parâmetros meteorológicos, além da correlação entre seu traçado, intensidade (Escala E-Fujita) e topografia. Foram também analisadas relações de sazonalidade de ocorrência destes eventos e sua concentração espacial. Conclui-se que o uso e ocupação não é um fator substancial na ocorrência de tornados, a maior parte dos eventos ocorrem em regiões de planalto e com poucas variações topográficas e a topografia interfere na intensidade dos eventos aumentado sua escala de estragos em áreas de menor declividade. / According to literature, tornadoes are defined as violently rotating columns of air that are in contact with both the surface of the earth and a cloud, typically in the form of a funnel whose narrow end touches the earth. These severe atmospheric events have drastic consequences for society today and they occur frequently in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil. In this context, the purpose of this dissertation is to present an analysis of the occurrence of tornadoes in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil during the period from 1960 to 2008, and how they are related to local topography and land use and occupation. For this analysis, we used satellite images supplied by the European Space Agency (ESA - Global Cover 2009), as well as topographical data from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) mission and research by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and IGC (Geographical and Mapping Institute). Four municipalities were chosen for this analysis (Indaiatuba-SP, Lins-SP, Guaraciaba-SC and São Gabriel-RS), selected because of the significant incidence of tornado events within their territories, which have been exhaustively studied. Their origins, development and dispersion were characterized and their meteorological parameters were established, as was the correlation between their trajectories, intensity (EFujita Scale) and the local topography. Seasonal aspects of the occurrence of these events and their spatial concentrations were also analyzed. We conclude that land use and occupation is not a substantial factor in the occurrence of tornadoes, as most of these events occur in highland regions with small topographical variations, considering that topography interferes in the intensity of the events in the sense that the intensity of these events is increased in flatter areas.

No description available.

No description available.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estudar escoamentos de tornados e sua ação sobre corpos imersos empregando ferramentas numéricas da Engenharia do Vento Computacional (EVC). Os tornados constituem-se atualmente em uma das causas de desastres naturais no Brasil, especialmente nas regiões sul e sudeste do país, como também em alguns países vizinhos. Os efeitos gerados são geralmente localizados e de curta duração, podendo ser devastadores dependendo da escala do tornado. Tais características dificultam a realização de estudos detalhados a partir de eventos reais, o que levou ao desenvolvimento de modelos experimentais e numéricos. A abordagem numérica é utilizada neste trabalho para a simulação de tornados, a qual se baseia nas equações de Navier-Stokes e na equação de conservação de massa, considerando a hipótese de pseudo-compressibilidade e condições isotérmicas. Para escoamentos com turbulência utiliza-se a Simulação Direta de Grandes Escalas com o modelo clássico de Smagorinsky para as escalas inferiores à resolução da malha (Large Eddy Simulation ou LES em inglês). A discretização das equações fundamentais do escoamento se realiza com um esquema explícito de dois passos de Taylor-Galerkin, onde o Método dos Elementos Finitos é empregado na discretização espacial utilizando-se o elemento hexaédrico trilinear isoparamétrico com um ponto de integração e controle de modos espúrios Na presença de corpos imersos que se movem para simular os deslocamentos dos tornados, o escoamento é descrito cinematicamente através de uma formulação Arbitrária Lagrangeana-Euleriana (ALE) que inclui um esquema de movimento de malha. Tornados são reproduzidos através da simulação numérica de dispositivos experimentais e do Modelo de Vórtice Combinado de Rankine (RCVM). Exemplos clássicos da Dinâmica dos Fluidos Computacional são apresentados inicialmente para a verificação das ferramentas numéricas implementadas. Finalmente, problemas envolvendo tornados móveis e estacionários são analisados, incluindo sua ação sobre corpos imersos. Nos modelos baseados em experimentos, a variação da relação de redemoinho determinou os diferentes padrões de escoamento observados no laboratório. Nos exemplos de modelo de vórtice, quando o tornado impactou o corpo imerso gerou picos de forças em todas as direções e, após a passar pelo mesmo, produziu uma alteração significativa na estrutura do vórtice. / Analyses of tornado flows and its action on immersed bodies using numerical tools of Computational Wind Engineering (CWE) are the main aims of the present work. Tornadoes are currently one of the causes of natural disasters in Brazil, occurring more frequently in the southern and southeastern regions of the country, as well as in some neighboring countries. Effects are usually localized, presenting a short time interval, which can be devastating depending on the scale of the tornado. These characteristics difficult to carry out detailed studies based on real events, leading to the development of experimental and numerical models. The numerical approach is used in this work for the simulation of tornadoes, which is based on the Navier-Stokes equations and the mass conservation equation, considering the hypothesis of pseudo-compressibility and isothermal conditions. For turbulent flows, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used with the classical Smagorinsky model for sub-grid scales Discretization is performed the explicit two-step Taylor-Galerkin scheme, where the Finite Element Method is used in spatial discretization using isoparametric trilinear hexahedral elements with one-point quadrature and hourglass control. In the presence of immersed bodies that are moving in order to simulate translating tornadoes, the flow is kinematically described through a Lagrangian-Eulerian Arbitrary (ALE) formulation, which includes a mesh motion scheme. Tornadoes are reproduced using numerical simulation of experimental devices and the Rankine Combined Vortex Model (RCVM). Classical examples of Computational Fluid Dynamics are presented initially for the verification of the numerical tools implemented here. Finally, problems involving moving and stationary tornadoes are analyzed, including their actions on immersed bodies. For models based on experiments, the variation of the swirl ratio determined the different flow patterns observed in the laboratory. In the vortex model examples, when the tornado impacted on the immersed body, peaks of forces were generated in all directions and, after passing over it, a significant change in the structure of the vortex was produced.

This thesis is an investigation of the multi-dimensional impact of disaster on community engagement with respect to capacity and vulnerability factors. The historic community of Goderich, Ontario, ravaged by an F3 tornado August 21, 2011, was the study population. A mixed-methods approach utilizing surveys, semi-structured interviews, and key informant interviews was employed in an effort to yield a more confident set of data and help facilitate understanding. Testing results revealed that the community was very aware of its capacities and vulnerabilities and utilized the disaster situation to affect positive change in these conditions. However, disaster itself was only found to stimulate engagement patterns in its immediate aftermath. Therefore, while disaster does not adversely affect community engagement, it also does not encourage sustained engagement activity. It does, however, stimulate extended associations of connection to the community, which may hold the key to long-term engagement motivation.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estudar escoamentos de tornados e sua ação sobre corpos imersos empregando ferramentas numéricas da Engenharia do Vento Computacional (EVC). Os tornados constituem-se atualmente em uma das causas de desastres naturais no Brasil, especialmente nas regiões sul e sudeste do país, como também em alguns países vizinhos. Os efeitos gerados são geralmente localizados e de curta duração, podendo ser devastadores dependendo da escala do tornado. Tais características dificultam a realização de estudos detalhados a partir de eventos reais, o que levou ao desenvolvimento de modelos experimentais e numéricos. A abordagem numérica é utilizada neste trabalho para a simulação de tornados, a qual se baseia nas equações de Navier-Stokes e na equação de conservação de massa, considerando a hipótese de pseudo-compressibilidade e condições isotérmicas. Para escoamentos com turbulência utiliza-se a Simulação Direta de Grandes Escalas com o modelo clássico de Smagorinsky para as escalas inferiores à resolução da malha (Large Eddy Simulation ou LES em inglês). A discretização das equações fundamentais do escoamento se realiza com um esquema explícito de dois passos de Taylor-Galerkin, onde o Método dos Elementos Finitos é empregado na discretização espacial utilizando-se o elemento hexaédrico trilinear isoparamétrico com um ponto de integração e controle de modos espúrios Na presença de corpos imersos que se movem para simular os deslocamentos dos tornados, o escoamento é descrito cinematicamente através de uma formulação Arbitrária Lagrangeana-Euleriana (ALE) que inclui um esquema de movimento de malha. Tornados são reproduzidos através da simulação numérica de dispositivos experimentais e do Modelo de Vórtice Combinado de Rankine (RCVM). Exemplos clássicos da Dinâmica dos Fluidos Computacional são apresentados inicialmente para a verificação das ferramentas numéricas implementadas. Finalmente, problemas envolvendo tornados móveis e estacionários são analisados, incluindo sua ação sobre corpos imersos. Nos modelos baseados em experimentos, a variação da relação de redemoinho determinou os diferentes padrões de escoamento observados no laboratório. Nos exemplos de modelo de vórtice, quando o tornado impactou o corpo imerso gerou picos de forças em todas as direções e, após a passar pelo mesmo, produziu uma alteração significativa na estrutura do vórtice. / Analyses of tornado flows and its action on immersed bodies using numerical tools of Computational Wind Engineering (CWE) are the main aims of the present work. Tornadoes are currently one of the causes of natural disasters in Brazil, occurring more frequently in the southern and southeastern regions of the country, as well as in some neighboring countries. Effects are usually localized, presenting a short time interval, which can be devastating depending on the scale of the tornado. These characteristics difficult to carry out detailed studies based on real events, leading to the development of experimental and numerical models. The numerical approach is used in this work for the simulation of tornadoes, which is based on the Navier-Stokes equations and the mass conservation equation, considering the hypothesis of pseudo-compressibility and isothermal conditions. For turbulent flows, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used with the classical Smagorinsky model for sub-grid scales Discretization is performed the explicit two-step Taylor-Galerkin scheme, where the Finite Element Method is used in spatial discretization using isoparametric trilinear hexahedral elements with one-point quadrature and hourglass control. In the presence of immersed bodies that are moving in order to simulate translating tornadoes, the flow is kinematically described through a Lagrangian-Eulerian Arbitrary (ALE) formulation, which includes a mesh motion scheme. Tornadoes are reproduced using numerical simulation of experimental devices and the Rankine Combined Vortex Model (RCVM). Classical examples of Computational Fluid Dynamics are presented initially for the verification of the numerical tools implemented here. Finally, problems involving moving and stationary tornadoes are analyzed, including their actions on immersed bodies. For models based on experiments, the variation of the swirl ratio determined the different flow patterns observed in the laboratory. In the vortex model examples, when the tornado impacted on the immersed body, peaks of forces were generated in all directions and, after passing over it, a significant change in the structure of the vortex was produced.