O foco desta tese é a relação comercial entre três pólos principais: Brasil, Portugal e Hamburgo. Em dois momentos distintos, antes da abertura dos portos, quando o Brasil é uma colônia portuguesa e, posteriormente, quando se torna um país autônomo. O fluxo comercial de Hamburgo com o Brasil, através de Portugal, é intenso a partir de 1796, ano em que as balanças de comércio o registram regularmente. Sendo mesmo Hamburgo, ao contrário do que se costuma pensar, o principal importador de efeitos coloniais brasileiros e, por decorrência, seu principal consumidor e distribuidor na Europa do Norte e Oriental. Depois da abertura dos portos, o movimento se retraiu, mas se recuperou nos anos seguintes a paz na Europa após a queda de Napoleão, voltando a ter papel significativo com a proclamação da Independência brasileira em relação a Portugal. Os principais produtos nesse estratégico comércio e importação hamburguesa era, sobretudo, o açúcar, couros e algodão. As fontes para o estudo foram as Balanças Gerais de Comércio de Portugal com seus Domínios e Nações Estrangeiras, as Balanças Comerciais de Hamburgo e os relatórios e as cartas consulares. / The present work focus on the commercial relationship among the tree key poles Brazil, Portugal and Hamburg in two distinct moments: before the opening of the ports, when Brazil was a Portuguese colony, and afterwards, when Brazil became an independent country. The commercial flow from Hamburg to Brazil, through Portugal, is intense from 1796, the year when the trade balance started to register it regularly. In fact, contrary to what one may think, it was Hamburg the main importer of the effects from Brazil colony and therefore its major consumer and distributor along Northern and Oriental Europe. After the opening of the ports, the flow had retread but the peace recovered it on the following years, especially after Napoleons fall when the flow had played a major role with the proclamation of the Brazilian Independence from Portugal. Sugar, leather and cotton were, above all, the principal products in this strategic trade and in the Hamburguese importation. The source of the study was the General Balance of Trade between Portugal and his Colonies and Nations, Hamburgs Balance of Trade, reports and consular letters.

A expressão agronegócio (agribusiness) originou-se na Universidade de Harvard na School of Business Administration, em 1957, com a publicação do livro A Concept of Agribusiness, de John Davis e Ray Goldberg. A ideia do agronegócio resulta em uma cadeia produtiva, com vários elos bastante interdependentes, das fases de produção até a comercialização do produto final O Brasil é visto por especialistas como um potencial fornecedor de alimentos global. E assim, a manutenção e o crescimento da participação produtiva do setor agrícola e pecuário nacional dependem de questões relacionadas à tecnologia. A problemática do trabalho envolve questões da diferenciação entre agropecuária e agronegócio. As fontes de referências de dados trazem informações, mas não englobam atividades da pré-produção, por isso, procurou-se responder: Não seria mais apropriado acrescentar a esta balança comercial os setores para trás, já que se trata como agronegócio? O objetivo é analisar por outra perspectiva os dados da balança comercial do agronegócio, propondo a adição de insumos intrínsecos aos produtos agropecuários, sob a ótica das intensidades tecnológicas, analisando seu comportamento no período de 1997 a 2017, permitindo assim, discorrer sobre o desempenho dos principais grupos de produtos da pauta de exportação e importação desse setor que serve de alicerce para a economia brasileira. Os resultados apontaram para fez diferença em termos de contribuição para a balança comercial do agronegócio a inclusão dos grupos de produtos peixes e crustáceos; produtos farmacêuticos; adubos (fertilizantes); e tratores na nova proposta a contribuição para a balança comercial total é menor. Ademais, os dados mostraram que o país tem dependência externa das vacinas e dos adubos e que esses produtos são de alta e média-alta intensidade tecnológica. / The term agribusiness originated at Harvard University at the School of Business Administration in 1957 with the publication of A Concept of Agribusiness by John Davis and Ray Goldberg. The idea of agribusiness results in a productive chain, with several interdependent links, from the production phases to the commercialization of the final product. Brazil is seen by experts as a potential global food supplier. The maintenance and growth of the productive participation of the national agricultural and livestock sector depends on issues related to technology. The problem of this papers involves issues of differentiation between agriculture and agribusiness. The sources of data references provide information, but do not include pre-production activities, so we tried to answer: Would it not be more appropriate to add the input sector to this trade balance, since it is called as agribusiness? The objective is to analyze from another perspective the agribusiness trade balance data, proposing the addition of intrinsic inputs to agricultural products, from the perspective of technological intensities, analyzing their behavior in the period from 1997 to 2017, thus allowing a discussion on the performance of the agribusinesses. main product groups of the export and import tariff of this sector that serves as a foundation for the Brazilian economy. The results pointed to the difference in terms of the contribution to the agribusiness trade balance to include the fish and crustaceans product groups; pharmaceutical products; fertilizers; and tractors in the new proposal the contribution to the total trade balance is lower. In addition, the data showed that the country has external dependence on vaccines and fertilizers and that these products are high and medium-high technological intensity.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine how a depreciation in the exchange rate affects the trade balance in an economy over time. The outcomes of a depreciation are possible to analyze through the J-curve phenomenon that shows the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance both in the short-run and the long-run. The data used in this thesis cover 39 countries and their quarterly changes in exchange rate between 1982 and 2005. The largest depreciation for each country during these years was detected and is the base for this research. In this thesis, focus is on the trade ratio rather than the trade balance for empirical purposes. The relation between the largest depreciations and its effect on the trade ratio are examined in two sets of regressions. The results show no evidence of a J-curve in neither one of the sets of regressions, even though the trade ratio is positively affected by the depreciation. When testing only for significantly large depreciations in the exchange rate the affect on the trade ratio is stronger, all else equal. According to the findings in this thesis, a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate causes the trade ratio to increase immediately and then decrease over time. The conclusion is that the findings are not in line with the J-curve phenomenon tested for; however, they support standard trade theory with the Marshall-Lerner condition being met i.e. a depreciation in the exchange rate will affect the trade balance positively.

Abstract: Taiwan has limited resources graphically, so 97% of primary energy source is dependent on import. Industrial sectors are the main sources to Taiwanese economic development since the 1970s, and the oil is the base of the industries, therefore, the fluctuation of world oil price will lead to the fluctuation of domestic business cycles. Besides, Taiwanese economy has highly depended on international trade; therefore the international business cycles also have influence on the domestic business cycles. Furthermore, the international trade accounts for substantial percentage of balance of international payment. Thus, the change in the international trade will also have impact on Taiwanese economy. This paper investigates the influence of international business cycles to the Taiwanese economy. Using a structural vector-autoregressive model (SVAR model) of a small open economy (OE), our SVAR model includes industry product index (IP) of three regions (Asia, Europe, and North America), world oil price, the Taiwanese industry product index and the Taiwanese trade balance. We try to understand how these factors and their variance decompositions explain Taiwanese business cycles. We chose two periods to do the analysis¡G1974:01-1984:01 and 1985:01-2002:04. To summarize, Taiwanese business cycles were much more impacted by the factors from itself. Besides, we can also say that the impact is neither from nominal nor from real variables. Domestic shocks will be more important in explaining Taiwanese economy. Taiwan has limited resource and depends on import; however, the government will control the oil price. Therefore, we conclude that the world oil price does not have huge impact on Taiwanese economy during our studying period. Asian shocks maybe have more influence than other regions on Taiwanese economy gradually during our studying period.

This thesis examines the relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate and the trade balances of 20 industries in which majority of the trade between Turkey and her leading partner Germany is carried out, both for the short and long run, in search of the existence of any J-curve effect. Using quarterly data over the period 1989:1-2011:3, the relationship is analyzed empirically through the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling. The findings show that, although the pattern created by a depreciation does not follow the compl ete J curve in any of the industries, still the exchange rate as well as foreign and domestic real incomes are effective determinants of bilateral trade balance between Turkey and Germany in majority of the cases both in the short and in the long run. Moreover, this thesis provides strong support for the assertion that at the disaggregate level industries exhibit unique and distinct trade balance responses to exchange rate fluctuations, by showing that these responses vary significantly across different sectors both in the short and long run.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine how a depreciation in the exchange rate affects the trade balance in an economy over time. The outcomes of a depreciation are possible to analyze through the J-curve phenomenon that shows the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance both in the short-run and the long-run. The data used in this thesis cover 39 countries and their quarterly changes in exchange rate between 1982 and 2005. The largest depreciation for each country during these years was detected and is the base for this research. In this thesis, focus is on the trade ratio rather than the trade balance for empirical purposes. The relation between the largest depreciations and its effect on the trade ratio are examined in two sets of regressions. The results show no evidence of a J-curve in neither one of the sets of regressions, even though the trade ratio is positively affected by the depreciation. When testing only for significantly large depreciations in the exchange rate the affect on the trade ratio is stronger, all else equal. According to the findings in this thesis, a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate causes the trade ratio to increase immediately and then decrease over time. The conclusion is that the findings are not in line with the J-curve phenomenon tested for; however, they support standard trade theory with the Marshall-Lerner condition being met i.e. a depreciation in the exchange rate will affect the trade balance positively.</p>

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Michigan, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 127-130).

O foco desta tese é a relação comercial entre três pólos principais: Brasil, Portugal e Hamburgo. Em dois momentos distintos, antes da abertura dos portos, quando o Brasil é uma colônia portuguesa e, posteriormente, quando se torna um país autônomo. O fluxo comercial de Hamburgo com o Brasil, através de Portugal, é intenso a partir de 1796, ano em que as balanças de comércio o registram regularmente. Sendo mesmo Hamburgo, ao contrário do que se costuma pensar, o principal importador de efeitos coloniais brasileiros e, por decorrência, seu principal consumidor e distribuidor na Europa do Norte e Oriental. Depois da abertura dos portos, o movimento se retraiu, mas se recuperou nos anos seguintes a paz na Europa após a queda de Napoleão, voltando a ter papel significativo com a proclamação da Independência brasileira em relação a Portugal. Os principais produtos nesse estratégico comércio e importação hamburguesa era, sobretudo, o açúcar, couros e algodão. As fontes para o estudo foram as Balanças Gerais de Comércio de Portugal com seus Domínios e Nações Estrangeiras, as Balanças Comerciais de Hamburgo e os relatórios e as cartas consulares. / The present work focus on the commercial relationship among the tree key poles Brazil, Portugal and Hamburg in two distinct moments: before the opening of the ports, when Brazil was a Portuguese colony, and afterwards, when Brazil became an independent country. The commercial flow from Hamburg to Brazil, through Portugal, is intense from 1796, the year when the trade balance started to register it regularly. In fact, contrary to what one may think, it was Hamburg the main importer of the effects from Brazil colony and therefore its major consumer and distributor along Northern and Oriental Europe. After the opening of the ports, the flow had retread but the peace recovered it on the following years, especially after Napoleons fall when the flow had played a major role with the proclamation of the Brazilian Independence from Portugal. Sugar, leather and cotton were, above all, the principal products in this strategic trade and in the Hamburguese importation. The source of the study was the General Balance of Trade between Portugal and his Colonies and Nations, Hamburgs Balance of Trade, reports and consular letters.

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross-country variation in the exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1-2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an "aggregate" J-curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

A expressão agronegócio (agribusiness) originou-se na Universidade de Harvard na School of Business Administration, em 1957, com a publicação do livro A Concept of Agribusiness, de John Davis e Ray Goldberg. A ideia do agronegócio resulta em uma cadeia produtiva, com vários elos bastante interdependentes, das fases de produção até a comercialização do produto final O Brasil é visto por especialistas como um potencial fornecedor de alimentos global. E assim, a manutenção e o crescimento da participação produtiva do setor agrícola e pecuário nacional dependem de questões relacionadas à tecnologia. A problemática do trabalho envolve questões da diferenciação entre agropecuária e agronegócio. As fontes de referências de dados trazem informações, mas não englobam atividades da pré-produção, por isso, procurou-se responder: Não seria mais apropriado acrescentar a esta balança comercial os setores para trás, já que se trata como agronegócio? O objetivo é analisar por outra perspectiva os dados da balança comercial do agronegócio, propondo a adição de insumos intrínsecos aos produtos agropecuários, sob a ótica das intensidades tecnológicas, analisando seu comportamento no período de 1997 a 2017, permitindo assim, discorrer sobre o desempenho dos principais grupos de produtos da pauta de exportação e importação desse setor que serve de alicerce para a economia brasileira. Os resultados apontaram para fez diferença em termos de contribuição para a balança comercial do agronegócio a inclusão dos grupos de produtos peixes e crustáceos; produtos farmacêuticos; adubos (fertilizantes); e tratores na nova proposta a contribuição para a balança comercial total é menor. Ademais, os dados mostraram que o país tem dependência externa das vacinas e dos adubos e que esses produtos são de alta e média-alta intensidade tecnológica. / The term agribusiness originated at Harvard University at the School of Business Administration in 1957 with the publication of A Concept of Agribusiness by John Davis and Ray Goldberg. The idea of agribusiness results in a productive chain, with several interdependent links, from the production phases to the commercialization of the final product. Brazil is seen by experts as a potential global food supplier. The maintenance and growth of the productive participation of the national agricultural and livestock sector depends on issues related to technology. The problem of this papers involves issues of differentiation between agriculture and agribusiness. The sources of data references provide information, but do not include pre-production activities, so we tried to answer: Would it not be more appropriate to add the input sector to this trade balance, since it is called as agribusiness? The objective is to analyze from another perspective the agribusiness trade balance data, proposing the addition of intrinsic inputs to agricultural products, from the perspective of technological intensities, analyzing their behavior in the period from 1997 to 2017, thus allowing a discussion on the performance of the agribusinesses. main product groups of the export and import tariff of this sector that serves as a foundation for the Brazilian economy. The results pointed to the difference in terms of the contribution to the agribusiness trade balance to include the fish and crustaceans product groups; pharmaceutical products; fertilizers; and tractors in the new proposal the contribution to the total trade balance is lower. In addition, the data showed that the country has external dependence on vaccines and fertilizers and that these products are high and medium-high technological intensity.