Este trabalho analisa a contribuição do agronegócio para o saldo comercial do Brasil desde 1989 de sorte a que se possa antecipar a possibilidade de ocorrer conflitos entre a geração dos superávits do setor e a manutenção do custo de vida e da inflação sob controle. Há que se determinar relações entre taxas de câmbio, taxa de crescimento do PIB, preços internacionais de commodities assim como o comportamento da produtividade com o superávit comercial do agronegócio. Uma nova classificação de balança comercial do agronegócio foi criada e usada para analisar os lados dos produtos exportados - representados pelos produtos agrícolas não processados, produtos de origem animal não processados e alimentos industrializados e dos insumos importados – representados pelos fertilizantes - para o período de 1989 a 2005. Elaboraram-se modelos de importação e exportação a fim de retratar e explicar o comportamento dessas variáveis empregando a Análise de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais (Vector Autoregression Analysis, VAR). Pôde-se observar que um aumento de 1% na atratividade – dada pelo produto do câmbio e dos preços externos - impulsiona as exportações de produtos agrícolas não processados em 1,71% imediatamente, estabilizando-se em 2% após alguns trimestres. A atratividade explica de 60% a 74% da variância dos erros de previsão dessas exportações. Um aumento de 1% atratividade eleva os preços agrícolas em 0,29% de imediato e em pouco mais de 0,2% no longo prazo. A demanda externa por fertilizantes mostrou-se inelástica: 1% de aumento no seu custo eleva o valor das importações em 0,55%. Nota-se assim que uma desvalorização cambial, por exemplo, aumenta mais as exportações de produtos do que as importações de fertilizantes. Além disso, um crescimento de 1% no PIB doméstico exerce impacto expressivo (convergindo em - 1,7%) de contenção das exportações dos produtos agrícolas. Embora estes efeitos não tenham apresentado poder relevante de explicação dos erros de previsão, eles alertam para possíveis quedas no ritmo exportador do agronegócio face a uma retomada do crescimento econômico brasileiro. Nesse caso, cada ponto percentual de crescimento do PIB teria de ser compensado por idêntica desvalorização cambial para conter a demanda interna e manter as exportações. Salientase, entretanto, que a expansão das exportações do agronegócio tem-se dado sob incremento importante da produtividade, que pode ser o elemento capaz de compatibilizar o crescimento das exportações e o atendimento do mercado interno sem pressões inflacionárias relevantes. / This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil\'s trade balance since 1989 until 2005 to evaluate the possibility of conflicts involving surplus generation, cost of living and inflation. The study determines the relationships among interest rates, GDP growth rate, commodities international prices as well as the productivity behavior with the agribusiness trade surplus. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products –non processed agricultural products, non processed products of animal origin, industrialized foods and imported inputs – represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness – product of the exchange rate by the international prices – boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness raises the agricultural prices by 0.29% at the first moment and slightly higher than 0.2% in the long run. The demand for fertilizers is inelastic: an increase of 1% in price generates a rise in the imports value of 0.55%. It is noted, thus, that an exchange rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports. Although these effects have not presented relevant power to explain the forecast errors, they signal to a possible drop of the agribusiness exporting rhythm in the face of an economic recovery of the Brazilian economy. In this case each percent point of the GDP growth would have to be compensated by an identical devaluation of the exchange rate in order to keep the exports level. It is highlighted, however, that the expansion of agribusiness exports has been attributed to an important increase in productivity, which can be the element to balance the exportation growth and the domestic market demands without relevant inflationary pressures.

The thesis Legal Aspects of Withdrawal from the EU is divided into two parts. The theoretical part sums up the legislation of the withdrawal according to article 5O of the Lisbon Treaty. There is also an example of withdrawal from the EU before the article 50 has been even applied. The section dedicated to the practical results attained from the research was completed by analysing existing preferential agreements, which the UK has owing to EU, as any other member state. Then the same analysis has been carried out with existing preferential agreements, that the UK concluded with third countries. There has been done a forecast of the trade balance and its effect on GDP for the next two years according to the prediction of the Bank of England.

Este trabalho analisa a contribuição do agronegócio para o saldo comercial do Brasil desde 1989 de sorte a que se possa antecipar a possibilidade de ocorrer conflitos entre a geração dos superávits do setor e a manutenção do custo de vida e da inflação sob controle. Há que se determinar relações entre taxas de câmbio, taxa de crescimento do PIB, preços internacionais de commodities assim como o comportamento da produtividade com o superávit comercial do agronegócio. Uma nova classificação de balança comercial do agronegócio foi criada e usada para analisar os lados dos produtos exportados - representados pelos produtos agrícolas não processados, produtos de origem animal não processados e alimentos industrializados e dos insumos importados – representados pelos fertilizantes - para o período de 1989 a 2005. Elaboraram-se modelos de importação e exportação a fim de retratar e explicar o comportamento dessas variáveis empregando a Análise de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais (Vector Autoregression Analysis, VAR). Pôde-se observar que um aumento de 1% na atratividade – dada pelo produto do câmbio e dos preços externos - impulsiona as exportações de produtos agrícolas não processados em 1,71% imediatamente, estabilizando-se em 2% após alguns trimestres. A atratividade explica de 60% a 74% da variância dos erros de previsão dessas exportações. Um aumento de 1% atratividade eleva os preços agrícolas em 0,29% de imediato e em pouco mais de 0,2% no longo prazo. A demanda externa por fertilizantes mostrou-se inelástica: 1% de aumento no seu custo eleva o valor das importações em 0,55%. Nota-se assim que uma desvalorização cambial, por exemplo, aumenta mais as exportações de produtos do que as importações de fertilizantes. Além disso, um crescimento de 1% no PIB doméstico exerce impacto expressivo (convergindo em - 1,7%) de contenção das exportações dos produtos agrícolas. Embora estes efeitos não tenham apresentado poder relevante de explicação dos erros de previsão, eles alertam para possíveis quedas no ritmo exportador do agronegócio face a uma retomada do crescimento econômico brasileiro. Nesse caso, cada ponto percentual de crescimento do PIB teria de ser compensado por idêntica desvalorização cambial para conter a demanda interna e manter as exportações. Salientase, entretanto, que a expansão das exportações do agronegócio tem-se dado sob incremento importante da produtividade, que pode ser o elemento capaz de compatibilizar o crescimento das exportações e o atendimento do mercado interno sem pressões inflacionárias relevantes. / This study aims to analyze the agribusiness contribution to Brazil\'s trade balance since 1989 until 2005 to evaluate the possibility of conflicts involving surplus generation, cost of living and inflation. The study determines the relationships among interest rates, GDP growth rate, commodities international prices as well as the productivity behavior with the agribusiness trade surplus. A new classification of the agribusiness trade balance was proposed and used to analyze the aspects of the exported products –non processed agricultural products, non processed products of animal origin, industrialized foods and imported inputs – represented by fertilizers. Imports and exports vector autoregression models were used to explain the behavior of these variables. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness – product of the exchange rate by the international prices – boosts immediately the exports of non processed agricultural products by 1.71%, stabilizing at 2% after some trimesters. The attractiveness explains 60 to 74% of the forecast error variances of these exportats. An increase of 1% in the attractiveness raises the agricultural prices by 0.29% at the first moment and slightly higher than 0.2% in the long run. The demand for fertilizers is inelastic: an increase of 1% in price generates a rise in the imports value of 0.55%. It is noted, thus, that an exchange rate devaluation stimulates more the exports of products than it does the fertilizer imports. Besides, an increase of 1% of the GDP has an expressive impact (converging into -1.7%) on agricultural products exports. Although these effects have not presented relevant power to explain the forecast errors, they signal to a possible drop of the agribusiness exporting rhythm in the face of an economic recovery of the Brazilian economy. In this case each percent point of the GDP growth would have to be compensated by an identical devaluation of the exchange rate in order to keep the exports level. It is highlighted, however, that the expansion of agribusiness exports has been attributed to an important increase in productivity, which can be the element to balance the exportation growth and the domestic market demands without relevant inflationary pressures.

Study analyses the influence of the real exchange rate on the real trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany, using quarterly data for the period 2000 -- 2014. Previous empirical studies are summarized and their method is used for this analysis. Data are multiplied by consumer price index to achieve real variables and then transformed into natural logarithms. Used variables are trade balance, export, gross domestic products of the Czech Republic and Germany and dummy variables representing economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 and monetary intervention of the Czech National Bank in autumn 2013. All variables were tested for stationarity and were found to be non-stationary, fortunately cointegration among variables was proved. Results failed to prove existence of J-curve concept. Results indicate, that in the short run after depreciation the real trade balance increases, but after that decreases. Economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 led to decrease of the real trade balance. Intervention of the Czech National Bank did not lead in the short run to a decrease of the real trade balance. Granger causality test between the real export, the real trade balance and the real exchange rate did not prove any causal relationships.

The growing world population accompanied by an increase in GDP is effectively raising the demand for energy. One of the options are unconventional means of oil and gas, originating mainly from shales and oil sands. The goal of this thesis is to introduce the reader to unconventional means and their influence on international business. After a short introduction and definition an analysis of the situation in the U.S. follows, where the recent years have brought an increase in production from unconventional sources. The positive influence on the economy, employment and energetic security will be mentioned same as possible impacts on the environment. Furthermore the paper provides an analysis of the potential of repeating the U.S. shale revolution in other countries, with special focus on the EU. The success of unconventional sources opens the possibility of new trade routes, influence on the trade balance and the potential of influencing the whole gas market. However, it will also have an impact on current oil and gas producers. Considering the close bond between energetic security and politics, the thesis closes with an analysis of influences on the economy and politics of both -- current oil and gas producers and countries, which might be directly and indirectly affected by changes in the oil and gas market.

Memoria para optar al Título Profesional de Ingeniero Forestal / En los últimos veinte años Chile ha tenido un desarrollo forestal importante, influenciado por estrategias políticas y económicas direccionadas a participar de forma activa en el comercio internacional. En este proceso, el sector forestal sostuvo ritmos de crecimiento variables en el tiempo. Debido a factores internos y externos al país y a un patrón de desarrollo que consolidó a tres grandes grupos empresariales que hoy dominan la actividad económica forestal. El estudio analiza el desarrollo que han experimentado las exportaciones y las empresas forestales, desde la perspectiva económica y comercial, entre 1995 y 2015, como resultado de las principales iniciativas políticas y económicas formuladas antes y durante el período de estudio. Se distinguen los factores más significativos que han incidido en el comportamiento de las exportaciones forestales chilenas, y se analizan los instrumentos políticos y legales que han afectado dicho desarrollo. De igual modo también se caracteriza el crecimiento del sector empresarial forestal de Chile, con especial consideración a su estructura y origen, y su relación con las condiciones políticas y económicas del período. Para lograr los objetivos, se extraen los datos de organismos gubernamentales y empresas privadas, cuyo análisis está referido a: las leyes relacionadas con el rubro, los efectos de la Crisis Asiática y Crisis Subprime; la evolución y velocidad de cambio de los montos exportados por producto; la composición de las exportaciones; la variación de la balanza comercial forestal; la variación de los mercados; los tratados de libre comercio; las grandes inversiones privadas en infraestructura a nivel nacional y latinoamericano; la salida y entrada de empresas al mercado; las áreas de mayor crecimiento; la propiedad de las empresas; los cambios estratégicos percibidos en el sector empresarial; las políticas económicas, y el apoyo a pequeñas y medianas empresas forestales. Finalmente, el estudio pretende responder preguntas relacionadas con las principales iniciativas políticas y económicas que influenciaron la evolución del sector, así como las razones que pueden justificar la evolución que han tenido las exportaciones y el desarrollo de las empresas del sector forestal durante el período de estudio. / Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of Chile for over twenty years as a result of political and economic strategies geared to encourage international trade. Under domestic and foreign up-and-downs the internationalization process faced uneven growth paces over the years and consolidated three large business groups which currently lead the sector economic activity. Within this scheme and from the economic and commercial perspectives the forest business development between 1995 and 2015 is analyzed, as a result of the major political and economic initiatives formulated before and during the study period. The most significant factors that have influenced Chilean forest exports are recognized associated to political and legal tools which have somehow affected such development. The Chilean forest business sector expansion is also characterized - particularly its origin and structure - related to the economic and political settings. The official and private information collected as well as the analysis involved referred to: laws connected to the forest activity; Asia and Subprime Crisis as factors of Chilean forest development; the evolution as well as the speed of change of forest product exports; forest products trade balance and target markets; free trade agreements; major private investments in domestic infrastructure and in Latin America; companies entry and exit of market; larger areas of growth; companies ownership; strategic changes perceived by business; economic policies and support to medium and small size forest companies. Finally, this study intends to answer questions related to the major political and economic initiatives that affected the forest sector growth, the reasons behind the expansion of forest product exports as well as the development of the forest sector companies over the study period.

Durante la década de los noventa, el Perú implementó un plan de inserción al comercio internacional, el cual consistió en disminuir aranceles nominales e impulsar la competitividad de los sectores exportadores peruanos. Dicho plan contribuyó a que los flujos comerciales peruano presenten una tendencia creciente en el periodo mencionado y sean cuentas cada vez más representativas del producto interior bruto peruano. En consecuencia, la economía peruana presenta una mayor dependencia de factores externos. De esta forma, resulta necesario estudiar los factores que alteran la balanza comercial peruana para así establecer políticas económicas eficientes. Respecto a ello, una de la relaciones mas estudiadas en la literatura de comercio internacional es la existente entre el tipo de cambio y la balanza comercial. Por dicha razón, el presente trabajo tiene como objetivo determinar cuál es el impacto, de largo plazo, de las variaciones del tipo de cambio nominal sobre la balanza comercial de forma agregada y desagregada por sector económico en el contexto de la economía peruana durante el periodo de 2006-2018. Los principales resultados indican que los datos desagregados muestran de forma más detallada los efectos del tipo de cambio y de los ingresos (domésticos y extranjeros) sobre los flujos de comercio internacional peruano (exportaciones e importaciones). Por un lado, se obtuvo que la devaluación del tipo de cambio nominal tiene un efecto expansivo en la balanza comercial agregada peruana. Asimismo, se descubrió que el tipo de cambio nominal y los ingresos tienen efectos distintos en los sectores económicos peruanos. Por un lado, se halló que la devaluación cambiaria no tiene un efecto expansivo en todos los sectores económicos peruanos y existen sectores que no son sensibles a dicha devaluación. / During the 1990s, Peru implemented a plan for insertion into international trade, which consisted of reducing nominal tariffs and boosting the competitiveness of the Peruvian export sectors. Said plan contributed to the fact that Peruvian trade flows show a growing trend in the mentioned period and are increasingly representative accounts of the Peruvian gross domestic product. Consequently, the Peruvian economy has a greater dependence on external factors. Thus, it is necessary to study the factors that alter the Peruvian trade balance in order to establish efficient economic policies. Regarding this, one of the most studied relationships in the international trade literature is that between the exchange rate and the trade balance. For this reason, the present work aims to determine the long-term impact of variations in the nominal exchange rate on the trade balance in an aggregate and disaggregated manner by economic sector in the context of the Peruvian economy during the period. from 2006-2018. The main results indicate that the disaggregated data show in more detail the effects of the exchange rate and income (domestic and foreign) on Peruvian international trade flows (exports and imports). On the one hand, it was found that the devaluation of the nominal exchange rate has an expansive effect on the aggregate Peruvian trade balance. Likewise, it was discovered that the nominal exchange rate and income have different effects in the Peruvian economic sectors. On the one hand, it was found that the exchange devaluation does not have an expansive effect on all Peruvian economic sectors and there are sectors that are not sensitive to said devaluation. / Trabajo de investigación

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to, from an institutional approach, study how the Stockholm importers within the textile sector adapted their foreign trade to the change in economic policy 1720 through 1738. The focus is to investigate to what extent the introduction of new laws, regulations etc. can be an explanation for what happened to Stockholm’s foreign trade, mainly imports, particularly textile imports during the period. It is mainly the economic policies that had been enacted during the Hornian government and their effects that have been studied. This is a period that has seldom been studied in other research.</p><p>This thesis begins when the Russian raids were over. This was a year when the foreign trade still was relatively free and was untouched by the 17th century’s regulations. After 1721 the policies that would be introduced to increase Sweden's level of self-sufficiency and strengthen ties with the North Sea area had several components. Besides the economic policy, the main sources for the thesis are the city toll records.</p><p>The trade policies in the shape of tolls and fees, import and consumption bans etc. and the commercial policies together became different kinds of political tools used for several purposes. The conclusion of this thesis is that the economic policies made the Stockholm importers adapt their trade to the change. The import bans and sumptuary laws had an effect. The economic policies gave rise to an increase in the import of textile raw materials. The rise in toll costs and import fees contributed to displacing the foreign trade towards other areas. The change in the economic policies was successful in the sense that it gave rise to new conditions for domestic production within the textile sector and forced Stockholm's importers to adapt their foreign trade.</p>

This thesis aims to present and analyse economic relations between Czechoslovakia and Argentina in the years 1945-1989 (i.e. a period that almost precisely coincides with the duration of the Cold War. The work focuses on a historical analysis of primary sources and archival documents of the Czechoslovak Federal Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade. This material was selected in light of the rarity of secondary literature devoted to this area. To a certain extent, this is a pioneering work, especially given the fact that the archives of the Federal Ministry of Foreign Trade have not yet been declassified and still enjoy only limited usage (processing) in a single publication. One primary function of foreign trade with the Latin American countries (with the obvious exception of Cuba) was to foster good relations between South America and Czechoslovakia during the Cold War. The study of this use of trade as a foreign policy instrument can provide useful lessons about pragmatic considerations to be borne in mind when designing foreign policy as a whole. The thesis presents new findings on the topic and attempts what may constitute the most comprehensive attempt to address economic relations between the aforementioned countries within a defined period.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-14 / ApexBrasil - Agência Brasileira de Promoção de Exportações e Investimentos / Esta dissertação objetiva analisar comparativamente a evolução dos fluxos de investimento externo direto na economia mundial e brasileira no período entre 1994 e 2011. A metodologia é baseada na estatística descritiva utilizando a correlação de Pearson e dados secundários relacionados com os fluxos de investimento externo direto, estoque, além da origem dos investimentos (países) e discriminação das atividades receptoras de investimento. Examinaram-se inicialmente os fluxos mundiais e constatou-se que os mesmos têm aumentando, atingindo US$ 1,5 trilhões em 2011. Os fluxos também têm se direcionado para os países em desenvolvimento que apresentaram aumento de 12% em 2011 com relação ao ano anterior. Com relação à origem dos investimentos diretos externos, os países que mais investiram no mundo foram por região, Portugal, Estados Unidos, Japão e Nova Zelândia. As atividades da economia que mais receberam investimento externo direto mundial, foram indústria e serviços, com destaque para a indústria química e serviços de utilidade pública. No caso brasileiro, os países que mais investiram foram os Países Baixos, seguido dos EUA e Espanha. Nas atividades econômicas, o Brasil recebeu maiores investimentos no setor de serviços em 2011, com destaque para os serviços financeiros. O impacto na balança comercial e emprego foram positivos, todavia, com taxas de crescimento bem distintas. No caso do investimento brasileiro no exterior, os fluxos se direcionaram em sua maioria para os Países Baixos, e as atividades econômicas mais investidas no mundo pelas multinacionais brasileiras foram petróleo e gás natural e extração de minerais metálicos, metalúrgica e serviços financeiros. Com a análise da correlação entre os fluxos de investimento direto e o PIB, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação, taxa de juros e taxa de desemprego, concluiu-se que o produto interno bruto está positivamente relacionado com os fluxos de investimento direto com intensidade alta; a relação com a taxa de câmbio se mostrou positiva em alguns anos e negativa em outros; a taxa de inflação, a taxa de juros e a taxa de desemprego se mostraram negativamente relacionadas com os fluxos, confirmando a teoria. / This dissertation aims to comparatively analyze the evolution of FDI flows in the world economy and Brazil between 1994 and 2011. The methodology is based on descriptive statistics and analysis of secondary data related to flows of foreign direct investment, stock, beyond the origin of investments (countries) and discrimination against recipients of investment activities. Were examined initially global flows and found that they are increasing, reaching $ 1.5 trillion in 2011. The flows have also been directed to developing countries which showed an increase of 12% in 2011 compared with the previous year. Regarding the origin of foreign direct investment, countries that have invested most in the world by region, Portugal, United States, Japan and New Zealand. The activities of the economy that received more foreign direct investment worldwide, were industry and services, with emphasis on the chemical industry and utilities. In Brazil, the countries that invested were the Netherlands, followed by the USA and Spain. In economic activities, the country received more investment in the service sector in 2011, with emphasis on financial services. The impact on the trade balance and employment were positive, however, with very different growth rates. In the case of Brazilian investment abroad, the flow is directed mostly to the Netherlands, and economic activities more invested in the world by Brazilian multinationals were oil and natural gas extraction and metal ore, metallurgical and financial services. With the analysis of the correlation between flows of direct investment and GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and unemployment rate, it was concluded that the gross domestic product is positively related to direct investment flows with high intensity , the relationship with the exchange rate was positive in some years and negative in others, the rate of inflation, the interest rate and the unemployment rate showed negatively related flows, confirming the theory.