This study presents a model that explains the traffic fatality by exploring the Poisson regression model using two types of explanatory variables – referred to as internal and external factors. Internal factors contain variables closely linked to traffic safety, such as speed limits and belt usage (Strandroth et al., 2012), whereas external factors comprise a set of variables that the Swedish Transport Administration cannot control, such as the economy and demographic change (Wiklund et al., 2012). The purpose of the study is to evaluate the impact that internal and external factors have on the traffic fatality. This is done by modeling the traffic fatality using internal factors and then assessing the contribution of adding external factors in the regression model with a forward variable selection strategy. This study uses Swedish traffic fatality data as monthly statistics. The main characteristics of the data are that fatalities have generally decreased with time. Also, the data is characterized by a long term cyclical pattern as well as a yearly cyclical pattern. For the purpose of modeling the impact of internal factors, a model inspired by Brüde (1995) has been adopted, using the variable time as the only explanatory variable. It is concluded that internal factors can be used to significantly explain the general trend of the development of traffic fatalities. The variables chosen to represent external factors were economic development, traffic exposure, demographic development and seasonal trend. The study concludes that the variables economic development, traffic exposure and demographic development significantly contribute to explain the long term cyclical trends, indicating that traffic fatality is a complex multivariate system where no single variable can solely explain its dynamics. The external factor seasonal trend has the most impact of the examined external factors and explains the yearly cyclical pattern by itself. The model presented in this study shows high explanatory power and overall good fit to fatality data, making it a promising tool for statistical analysis of factors contributing to fatality. Especially for the Swedish Transport Administration, the impact of external factors can be evaluated statistically. This study leaves room for further research to assess the impact of additional external factors as well as evaluating the model’s predictive power, both of interest to the Swedish Transport Administration. / Denna studie presenterar en modell som förklarar dödsfall i trafiken genom tillämpning av Poissonregression där två typer av förklaringsvariabler använts – interna och externa faktorer. Interna faktorer innefattar variabler som är direkt knutna till trafiksäkerhet, såsom hastighetsbegränsningar och användande av säkerhetsbälte (Strandroth et al., 2012). Externa faktorer är variabler som Trafikverket inte kan kontrollera, såsom landets ekonomi och demografiska förändringar (Wiklund et al., 2012). Syftet med denna studie är att evaluera påverkan av interna och externa faktorer på dödsfall i vägtrafik. Detta görs genom att analysera hur väl interna faktorer förklarar dödsfall i vägtrafik och sedan undersöka förbättringen av att införa externa faktorer som förklaringsvariabler genom användande av en forward variable selection-strategi. Denna studie använder månatlig data över dödsfall i svensk trafik. Dessa data karaktäriseras av en nedgående trend. Dynamiken av dödsfall visar på ett långt cykliskt mönster samt ett kortare, årligt mönster. I syfte att modellera påverkan av interna faktorer har en modell inspirerad av Brüde (1995) tillämpats. Denna modell använder enbart variabeln tid som förklaringsvariabel. Studien konstaterar att interna faktorer kan användas för att signifikant beskriva en generell trend för utvecklingen av dödsfall i vägtrafik. Variablerna som har valts att representera externa faktorer är ekonomisk utveckling, trafikarbete, demografi samt en säsongstrend. Studien konstaterar att variablerna ekonomisk utveckling, trafikarbete och demografi beskriver det långa cykliska mönstret, vilket tyder på att dödsfall i vägtrafik är av komplex natur och kan inte beskrivas av en ensam variabel. Den externa faktorn säsongstrend förbättrar modellen mest av de externa faktorerna och kan ensam förklara det kortsiktiga cykliska mönstret. Den modell som presenteras i denna studie har hög förklaringsgrad och en överlag bra modellanpassning, vilket gör den till ett lovande verktyg för statistisk analys av faktorer bidragande till dödsfall i trafiken. Modellen är av särskilt intresse för Trafikverket då den tillåter statistisk utvärdering av externa faktorers påverkan. Denna studie lämnar utrymme för framtida forskning att utvärdera påverkan av ytterligare externa faktorer samt att evaluera modellens förmåga att prognostisera framtida antal dödsfall i vägtrafik, vilka båda är intresseområden för Trafikverket.

The heavy-tailed traffic from wireless users, caused by the emerging Internet and multimedia applications, induces extremely dynamic and variable network environment, which can fundamentally change the way in which wireless networks are conceived, designed, and operated. This thesis is concerned with modeling, analysis, and optimization of wireless networks in the presence of heavy tails. First, a novel traffic model is proposed, which captures the inherent relationship between the traffic dynamics and the joint effects of the mobility variability of network users and the spatial correlation in their observed physical phenomenon. Next, the asymptotic delay distribution of wireless users is analyzed under different traffic patterns and spectrum conditions, which reveals the critical conditions under which wireless users can experience heavy-tailed delay with significantly degraded QoS performance. Based on the delay analysis, the fundamental impact of heavy-tailed environment on network stability is studied. Specifically, a new network stability criterion, namely moment stability, is introduced to better characterize the QoS performance in the heavy-tailed environment. Accordingly, a throughput-optimal scheduling algorithm is proposed to maximize network throughput while guaranteeing moment stability. Furthermore, the impact of heavy-tailed spectrum on network connectivity is investigated. Towards this, the necessary conditions on the existence of delay-bounded connectivity are derived. To enhance network connectivity, the mobility-assisted data forwarding scheme is exploited, whose important design parameters, such as critical mobility radius, are derived. Moreover, the latency in wireless mobile networks is analyzed, which exhibits asymptotic linearity in the initial distance between mobile users.

The traffic engineering community currently faces the advent of a new generation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), known as cooperative systems. More specifically, the recent developments of connected and autonomous vehicles, i.e. cooperative vehicles, are expected to cause a societal shift, changing the way people commute on a daily basis and relate to transport in general. The research presented in this dissertation is motivated by the need for proper understanding of the possible inputs of cooperative vehicles in a traffic stream. Beyond legal aspects regarding the introduction of such vehicles and considerations on standardization and harmonization of the communication norms, the research focuses on the use of communication for highway traffic flow homogenization. In particular, the selected approach for the introduction of cooperation inherits from the theory of traffic flow and the recent developments of microscopic traffic models. Cooperation can first be introduced as a form of multi-anticipation, which can either come from drivers' behaviors or from communication. A mathematical framework for investigating the impact of perturbations into a steady-state traffic is proposed for the class of time continuous car-following models. Linear stability analyses are refined for forward and backward multi-anticipation, exploring the underlying importance of considering upstream information. The linear stability analyses for all wavelengths can be deepened by the mean of the graphical root locus analysis, which enables comparisons and design of strategies of cooperation. The positive influence of bilateral cooperation and of added linear control terms are highlighted. Weakly non-linear analyses are also performed, and the equations of solitary waves appearing at the frontier of the instability domain are obtained. A simple condition over the partial derivatives of the dynamical system is found to determine the acceleration regime of the leading edge of the travelling wave. Following these analytical results, one aim is to simulate a realistic traffic thereby reproducing the driving behavior variability. A Next Generation Simulation trajectory dataset is used to calibrate three continuous car-following models. A methodology involving data filtering, robust calibration, parameters estimation and sampling of realistic parameters is detailed, and allows realistic traffic with stop-and-go waves appearances to be replicated. Based on these simulated trajectories, previous analytical results are confirmed, and the growing perturbations are removed for various coverage rates of cooperative vehicles and adequately tuned cooperative strategies. Finally the issue of information reliability is assessed for a mixed fleet of cooperative and non-cooperative vehicles. The modeling choice consists in building a three layers multi-agent framework that enables the following properties to be defined: the physical behavior of vehicles, the communication possibilities, and the trust each vehicle -or agent- has in another vehicle information or in itself. The investigation of trust and communication rules allow the model to deal with high rates of disturbed cooperative vehicles sensors and to learn in real time the quality of the sent and received information. It is demonstrated that appropriate communication and trust rules sensibly increase the robustness of the network to perturbations coming from exchanges of unreliable information.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate the traffic patterns in the mobile data networks. In this work, a simple Cellular Digital Packet Data (CDPD) network was modeled in order to be used in simulations. For the purpose of using in the CDPD model, a synthetic bursty traffic model was produced and using different traffic patterns some performance investigations were made in CDPD network. During the whole work, OPNET simulation tool was used. The CDPD network modeled by OPNET simulation tool was compared with a CDPD model described in the literature and the differences were shown. The new model has some new features: 1) Burst transmission of MAC blocks. 2) Exponential backoff. 3) New packet structures. 4) Frame segmentation and encapsulation into MAC layer frames. Using OPNET, a traffic having higher level of burstiness was produced and applied to the CDPD network model. Under the bursty traffic, some CDPD performance parameters were collected and according to the collected results some suggestions were given.

Le problème de la gestion éco-responsable du trafic urbain est adressé. Ce type de gestion du trafic vise à réduire les arrêts des véhicules, les accélérations, la consommation énergétique, ainsi que la congestion. L'éco-management du trafic dans les réseaux urbains peut être catégorisé dans deux classes principales : contrôle du véhicule et contrôle de l'infrastructure. Les deux domaines de contrôle peuvent présenter caractéristiques soit isolées soit coordonnées, en dépendant du type d'information utilisée dans l'optimisation.La gestion du trafic côté véhicule influe sur chaque véhicule en fonction de ses propres caractéristiques et position. Le contrôle isolé du véhicule vise principalement à optimiser la transmission et/ou le profil de conduite des véhicules, en utilisant éventuellement des informations sur les caractéristiques de la route, mais sans communiquer avec les autres agents du réseau. Le contrôle coordonné du véhicule, d'autre part, fait usage de la communication entre les véhicules et avec l'infrastructure pour obtenir des bénéfices plus importants en termes de consommation d'énergie et de fluidité de la circulation.En revanche, la gestion du côté infrastructure influe sur les feux et les panneaux de signalisation, afin d'améliorer les performances de l'ensemble du trafic. Le contrôle isolé de l'infrastructure régule essentiellement les feux de signalisation pour une seule intersection, ou bien les limites de vitesse dans un seul tronçon de route, sans prendre en compte les interactions avec les jonctions et/ou les sections voisines. Le contrôle coordonné de l'infrastructure surmonte cette limitation en utilisant des informations sur les conditions de circulation dans d'autres sections de la route, afin de réduire la congestion.Les contributions de ce travail peuvent être résumées comme suit.Tout d'abord, une solution pour le contrôle coordonné du véhicule a été proposée, dans laquelle la communication avec l'infrastructure est exploitée pour réduire la consommation d'énergie. En particulier, les plans des feux de signalisation sont supposés être communiqués au véhicule et connus, et une vitesse optimale est suggérée au véhicule afin de traverser une séquence de carrefours à feux sans s'arrêter, tout en suivant une trajectoire d'énergie minimale. La stratégie proposée, appliquée indépendamment à chaque véhicule, a été testée dans un simulateur de trafic microscopique afin d'évaluer l'impact sur les performances du trafic. L'analyse a montré que la consommation d'énergie et le nombre d'arrêts peuvent être considérablement réduits sans affecter le temps de parcours.Ensuite, une solution pour le contrôle isolé de l'infrastructure a été proposée. Un modèle macroscopique du trafic urbain a été introduit, et les limites de vitesse variables ont été utilisées pour améliorer les performances de la circulation. L'optimisation vise à trouver un compromis entre la réduction de consommation énergétique et le temps de parcours moyen des véhicules dans le tronçon de route considéré. Des expériences ont démontré qu'il existe une limite de vitesse optimale qui améliore les performances du trafic, et qui réduit la longueur de la file d'attente au feu de signalisation.Enfin, une solution pour le contrôle coordonné de l'infrastructure a été proposée. La synchronisation des feux de signalisation sur les grands axes de circulation a été prouvée efficace pour réduire le temps de parcours. Notre analyse a démontré qu'un problème d'optimisation peut être formalisé pour prendre en compte également les aspects énergétiques. Des expériences approfondies dans un simulateur de trafic microscopique ont montré qu'il existe une corrélation entre la progression du trafic et ses performances. La stratégie de contrôle proposée a montré qu'une réduction significative de la consommation d'énergie peut être atteinte, en éliminant presque complètement les arrêts et le temps d'arrêt, sans affecter le temps de parcours. / The problem of energy-aware traffic management in urban environment is addressed. Such traffic management aims at reducing vehicle stops, accelerations, energy consumption, and ultimately congestion. The eco-management in urban traffic networks may be divided in two broad categories: vehicle-side control and infrastructure-side control. Both control domains can feature isolated or coordinated characteristics, depending on the type of information used in the optimization.The vehicle-side traffic management influences each single vehicle according to its own characteristics and position. Isolated vehicle control aims primarily at optimizing the powertrain and/or the driving profile of the vehicles, possibly using information about the road characteristics, but without communicating with the other agents of the traffic network. Coordinated vehicle control makes use of communication among vehicles and with the infrastructure in order to achieve larger benefits in terms of energy consumption and traffic fluidity.The infrastructure-side management, on the other hand, influences traffic lights and road side panels in order to improve the performance of the traffic as a whole. Isolated infrastructure control regulates essentially the traffic lights at a single signalized intersection, or the speed limits in a single stretch of road, without taking into account the interactions with the neighboring junctions and/or road sections. Coordinated infrastructure control overcomes this limitation by using information about traffic conditions in other road sections to alleviate congestion.The contributions of this work to the energy-aware traffic management may be summarized as follows.Firstly, a solution for the coordinated vehicle control has been proposed, in which communication with the infrastructure is exploited to reduce energy consumption. In particular, the traffic lights timings are assumed to be communicated to the vehicle and known, and the vehicle is suggested an optimal speed to drive through a sequence of signalized intersections without stopping, while following a minimum-energy trajectory. The proposed strategy, independently applied to each vehicle, has been tested in a microscopic traffic simulator in order to assess the impact on the traffic performance. The analysis has demonstrated that the energy consumption and the number of stops can be drastically reduced without affecting the travel time.Then, a solution for the isolated infrastructure control has been proposed. A macroscopic urban traffic model has been introduced, and the variable speed limits have been used as actuation to improve traffic performance. In particular, the analysis has been carried out at saturated traffic conditions, with given and fixed traffic lights scheduling. The optimization aims at reducing the energy consumption in trade-off with the average travel time of the vehicles in the considered road section. Experiments have demonstrated that there exists an optimal speed limit that improves traffic performance and reduces the length of the queue at the traffic light.Lastly, a solution for the coordinated infrastructure control has been proposed. Traffic lights coordination on arterials has been proved to be effective in terms of traffic delay reduction. Our analysis has demonstrated that an optimization problem can be cast to take into account also energetic aspects. Extensive experiments in a microscopic traffic simulator have showed that a correlation exists between traffic progression and traffic performance indexes, such as energy consumption, travel time, idling time, and number of stops. The proposed control strategy has showed that a significant reduction of energy consumption can be achieved, almost completely eliminating number of stops and idling time, without affecting the travel time.

La gestion du stationnement se présente comme un levier phare pour l’orientation modale des déplacements urbains : en effet les restrictions par la rareté ou le prix pénalisent le mode automobile et renforcent l’attrait des autres modes de déplacement, plus économes en impacts sur l’environnement. Cependant une gestion restrictive augmente la difficulté de trouver une place, les parcours de recherche et les gênes à la circulation, ce qui accroît l’impact environnemental de chacun des déplacements automobiles subsidiaires. Cette thèse traite la problématique quantitative de l’offre et de la demande de stationnement automobile en milieu urbain, au prisme de l’éco-conception pour rendre la planification plus soutenable. Elle propose un modèle de simulation qui permet d’étudier des plans de gestion de stationnement, en privilégiant le fonctionnement technique du système et son interaction avec la circulation. La première partie propose une analyse de l’évolution du stationnement urbain dans les politiques publiques en France, suivie d’une analyse théorique mettant en avant les enjeux et des défis que soulève une démarche d’éco-conception. Une exploration systémique du stationnement, centrée sur ses dimensions physiques, fonctionnelles et spatiales, est ensuite présentée. De plus, une méthodologie pour diagnostiquer l’état du stationnement à l’échelle d’une agglomération, sur la base d’une Enquête Ménages Déplacements, est développée Elle est illustrée par une application à l’Île-de-France en 2010.La deuxième partie est consacrée à la modélisation spatialisée du système de stationnement. Elle commence par une revue de littérature spécifique. Puis nous proposons un traitement statique des interactions entre stationnement et circulation routière, à l’échelle locale. Un modèle spatialisé d’affection de trafic à l’équilibre (modèle ParkCap) est développé. Il permet de modéliser les choix conjoints d’itinéraire et de lot de stationnement, en considérant explicitement les contraintes de capacités de l’offre et le phénomène de recherche de places sur le réseau routier. Pour démontrer le fonctionnement du modèle deux exemples numériques sont traités, avant de décrire brièvement la structure du simulateur informatique. La troisième et dernière partie fournit une application du modèle à la planification stratégique du stationnement dans le quartier de la cité Descartes. Après un diagnostic territorial du site et de son système de stationnement, une simulation de l’état de référence de 2010 est mise en œuvre. L’application permet d’illustrer la méthode opératoire et de démontrer les capacités de l’outil ParkCap à reproduire une situation réelle et d’évaluer plusieurs variantes alternatives de gestion locale de stationnement. Nous l’étendons à une étude prospective de l’évolution du système de stationnement à l’horizon de 2030. En anticipant les transformations urbaines associées au projet urbain du Grand Paris Express, trois scénarios contrastés d’offre de stationnement sont comparés et évalués / Parking management is a key lever for the modal orientation of urban travel. Indeed, restrictions by scarcity or price penalize the automobile mode and increase the attractiveness of alternative travel modes, which have less impact on the environment. However, restrictive management increases the difficulty of finding an available spot, cruising for parking and traffic congestion, which raises the environmental effect of each of the subsidiary car journeys. This thesis deals with the quantitative problem of the supply and demand of car parking in urban areas through the prism of eco-design to make planning more sustainable. It proposes a simulation model which allows to study parking management plans, focusing on the technical functioning of the system and its interaction with road traffic. The first part proposes a comprehensive overview of the evolution of urban parking in public policies in France, followed by a theoretical analysis of the issues and the challenges raised by an eco-design approach of parking. A systemic exploration centered on its physical, functional and spatial dimensions is then given. Finally, a methodology for diagnosing parking practices at the level of an agglomeration based on a household travel survey is developed and illustrated by an application to the Île-de-France in 2010.The second part is devoted to the spatial modeling of the parking system. It begins with a review of specific literature. Then, we propose a static treatment of the interactions between parking and road traffic at the local level. A spatialized network assignment model (ParkCap model) is developed. It enables to model the joint choices of network route and parking lot and explicitly considers supply capacities constraints and the phenomenon of cruising for parking on the road network. The model’s performance is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Lastly, the structure of the computer simulator prototype is briefly presented. The third and final part provides an application of the model to the strategic planning of parking in the district of Cité Descartes. After a territorial diagnosis of the study area and its parking system, a simulation of the 2010 reference state is implemented. The application demonstrates the ability of the ParkCap tool to simulate a real network and to evaluate several parking management plans. We extend it to a prospective study of the parking system by 2030. By anticipating the urban transformations associated with the Greater Paris Express project, three contrasting scenarios of parking supply are compared and evaluated

Submitted by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2014-11-06T17:22:37Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Bruno Henrique Pereira Gonçalves - 2013.pdf: 2765842 bytes, checksum: 73031d592b28fd2dc03d6bbdfa04cc34 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2014-11-06T17:22:46Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Bruno Henrique Pereira Gonçalves - 2013.pdf: 2765842 bytes, checksum: 73031d592b28fd2dc03d6bbdfa04cc34 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-06T17:22:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertacao - Bruno Henrique Pereira Gonçalves - 2013.pdf: 2765842 bytes, checksum: 73031d592b28fd2dc03d6bbdfa04cc34 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This paper proposes adaptive resource allocation in multiuser wireless networks based on OFDM. Two allocation schemes are proposed: for TDMA networks and LTE networks. The resource allocation schemes that provide QoS are developed from the union of OFDM wireless networks, the proposal of adaptive modeling of traffic flows and the proposal of adaptive estimation of effective bandwidth. The performances of the proposed schemes are verified through simulation. Concepts and studies on traffic modeling, multifractal traffic modeling, theory of effective bandwidth, OFDM, are addressed in order to support the understanding and development of the proposed schemes. An algorithm for adaptive parameter estimation of the multifractal model bMWM is proposed, and studies to estimate the effective bandwidth are presented. Some methods of estimating effective bandwidth are proposed using traffic flow models. / Este trabalho propõe esquemas de alocação adaptativa de recursos em redes sem fio multiusuário OFDM. Dois esquemas de alocação são propostos: para redes TDMA e para redes LTE. Os esquemas de alocação de recursos foram elaborados a partir da união de tecnologia de redes sem fio OFDM, proposta de modelagem adaptativa de fluxos de tráfego e proposta de estimação adaptativa de banda efetiva, de maneira a garantir requisitos de QoS em redesmultiusuário. Simulações são realizadas para validar o desempenho dos esquemas de alocação propostos. Conceitos e estudos sobre modelagem de tráfego, modelagem de tráfego multifractal, teoria de banda efetiva e OFDM são tratados de maneira a subsidiar o entendimento e a elaboração dos esquemas propostos. É proposto um algoritmo para estimação adaptativa de parâmetros do modelo multifractal bMWM, e são apresentados estudos realizados para estimação de banda efetiva. Alguns métodos de estimação de banda efetiva são propostos utilizando modelos de fluxo de tráfego.

<p>Next-generation (Next-Gen) mobile applications, Extended Reality (XR), which encompasses Virtual/Augmented/Mixed Reality (VR/AR/MR), promise to revolutionize how people interact with technology and the world, ushering in a new era of immersive experiences. However, the hardware capacity of mobile devices will not grow proportionally with the escalating resource demands of the mobile apps due to their battery constraint. To bridge the gap, edge computing has emerged as a promising approach. It is further boosted by emerging 5G cellular networks, which promise low latency and high bandwidth. However, realizing the full potential of edge computing faces several fundamental challenges.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In this thesis, we first discuss a set of fundamental design challenges in supporting Next-Gen mobile applications via edge computing. These challenges extend across the three key system components involved — mobile clients, edge servers, and cellular networks. We then present how we address several of these challenges, including (1) how to coordinate mobile clients and edge servers to achieve stringent QoE requirements for Next-Gen apps; (2) how to optimize energy consumption of running Next-Gen apps on mobile devices to ensure long-lasting user experience; and (3) how to model and generate control-plane traffic of cellular networks to enable innovation on mobile network architectural design to support Next-Gen apps not only over 4G but also over 5G and beyond.</p> <p><br></p> <p>First, we present how to optimize the latency in edge-assisted XR system via the mobile-client and edge-server co-design. Specifically, we exploit key insights about frame similarity in VR to build the first multiplayer edge-assisted VR design, Coterie. We demonstrate that compared with the prior work on single-player VR, Coterie reduces the per-player network load by 10.6X−25.7X, and can easily support 4 players for high-quality VR apps on Pixel 2 over 802.11ac running at 60 FPS and under 16ms responsiveness without exhausting the finite wireless bandwidth.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Second, we focus on the energy perspective of running Next-Gen apps on mobile devices. We study a major limitation of a classic and de facto app energy management technique, reactive energy-aware app adaptation, which was first proposed two decades ago. We propose, design, and validate a new solution, the first proactive energy-aware app adaptation, that effectively tackles the limitation and achieves higher app QoE while meeting a given energy drain target. Compared with traditional approaches, our proactive solution improves the QoE by 44.8% (Pixel 2) and 19.2% (Moto Z3) under low power budget.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Finally, we delve into the third system component, cellular networks. To facilitate innovation in mobile network architecture to better support Next-Gen apps, we characterize and model the control-plane traffic of cellular networks, which has been mostly overlooked by prior work. To model the control-plane traffic, we first prove that traditional probability distributions that have been widely used for modeling Internet traffic (e.g., Poisson, Pareto, and Weibull) cannot model the control-plane traffic due to the much higher burstiness and longer tails in the cumulative distributions of the control-plane traffic. We then propose a two-level state-machine-based traffic model based on the Semi-Markov model. We finally validate that the synthesized traces by using our model achieve small differences compared with the real traces, i.e., within 1.7%, 4.9% and 0.8%, for phones, connected cars, and tablets, respectively. We also show that our model can be easily adjusted from LTE to 5G, enabling further research on control-plane design and optimization for 4G/5G and beyond.</p>

Ce document synthétise mes travaux de thèse de doctorat en Automatique Productiqueà Grenoble INP (Institut National Polytechnique), thèse préparée au sein dudépartement automatique du laboratoire GIPSA-lab (Grenoble Image Parole Signal etAutomatique). Ce travail s’inscrit dans le cadre du contrôle local et de la supervisiondes systèmes de trafic routier. Les principales contributions portent sur la modélisation,la supervision et la commande locale des systèmes de trafic routier.La contribution apportée à la modélisation du trafic est l’ajout d’un modèle d’incertitudesur le modèle CTM (Cell Transmission Model [Daganzo, 1994]). Ce nouveaumodèle permet de prendre en compte les incertitudes sur différents paramètres dumodèle pour in-fine proposer de nouvelles stratégies de commandes commutées robustes.Outre cette approche de modélisation, nous proposons un niveau de supervisionpermettant d’une part d’estimer en temps réel le mode de fonctionnement et d’autrepart de détecter, localiser et estimer certaines fautes sur le système. L’estimation dynamiquede mode de fonctionnement nous permet de connaître l’état de congestion (ou denon-congestion) de l’aménagement routier considéré. Nous sommes en mesure de détecterdes fautes telles que des chutes de vitesse ou des chutes de capacité survenant sur la route.Enfin, nous proposons deux lois de commandes locales basées sur la théorie dessystèmes à commutations. Ainsi, le schéma de contrôle s’adaptera dynamiquementaux changements de propriétés du système. Ces lois de commande ont pour objet des’insérer dans un schéma de régulation hiérarchique. / This document synthesizes my Phd thesis work in Automatic Control in Grenoble-INP. This thesis has been prepared in the automatic control department of thelaboratory GIPSA-lab. This work is situated in the area of traffic systems control andsupervision. Our contributions are about modeling, supervision and local traffic control.The CTM traffic model has been extended with a model of uncertainties. Thisnews model allows us to take into account the uncertain parameters of the model, topropose new robust switched control law.In addition to this modeling approach, we propose some developments on supervisionof trafic systems. On one hand, we can estimate the operating mode of thesystem in real time and on the other hand to estimate some faults on the system. Thedynamical estimation of the operating mode allows us to know the state of congestion(or non congestion) of the road. We are able to estimate faults such as speed fall andcapacities drop that may appear.Finally, we propose two control laws based on switching systems control. The developedcontrollers adapt their geometry to the properties of the system. The purposeof these controllers is to be inserted in a hierarchic control scheme.

Beim Entwurf großer Netzwerke der Automation ermöglichen Methoden der Leistungsbewertung den Test und die Dimensionierung eines Netzwerkes bereits vor der Inbetriebnahme und erlauben damit einen effizienten, qualitätsorientierten Entwurf. Es ist jedoch sehr wissensintensiv und aufwendig, entsprechende Analyse- oder Simulations-Modelle aufzustellen und die Ergebnisse auszuwerten, weshalb die Methoden in der Praxis der Automation selten verwendet werden. Viel vertrauter sind dem Entwerfer hingegen die speziellen Software-Tools, mit denen in der Automation Netzwerke entworfen werden. Auf Basis der Datenbanken dieser Tools werden in dieser Arbeit verschieden Verfahren zur automatischen Systemmodellierung, Verkehrsmodellierung, Leistungsbewertung und Fehlerdiagnose zu einem Control Network Performance Engineering kombiniert, welches die Qualitätsbewertung und -beratung nahtlos und ohne Mehraufwand in den Netzwerkentwurf integriert. (Die Dissertation wurde veröffentlicht im Jörg Vogt Verlag, Voglerstr. 20, 01277 Dresden, Internet: http://www.vogtverlag.de/, email: info@vogtverlag.de, ISBN 978-3-938860-10-6) / During the design of large automation networks, performance analysis methods can be used for testing and dimensioning the network before implementation and are essential for an efficient and reliable design process. However, setting up the necessary analytical or simulative models is time-consuming, requires in-depth knowledge, and is therefore often not applicable in practice. The network designers are much more used to the design tools used to develop automation networks. Based on these tools' databases various methods for automated system and traffic modeling, performance analysis and diagnoses are combined in the control network performance engineering that seamlessly integrates quality analysis and consulting into network design without requiring additional effort. (This manuscript is also available - in the form of a book - from Jörg Vogt Verlag, Voglerstr. 20, 01277 Dresden, Germany world-wide web address: http://www.vogtverlag.de/, electronic-mail address: info@vogtverlag.de, ISBN 978-3-938860-10-6 )