Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lance Bachmeier / In the first chapter I study the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity at the U.S. state-level, an innovative feature of this dissertation. States which rely more heavily on manufacturing or tourism are more adversely affected by adverse oil price shocks, while states which are major energy producers either benefit or experience insignificant economic changes from historically large oil price increases. Additionally, oil price increases from 1986 to 2011 have not impacted state-level economies to the same degree as increases from 1976 to 1985. This discrepancy can be attributed to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy, for example, a declining manufacturing sector or an increase in the efficiency with which energy is used in the production process. In the second chapter I explore the effects of alternative measures of energy price shocks on economic activity and examine the relative performance of these alternative measures in forecasting macroeconomic activity. The alternative energy prices I consider are: gasoline, diesel, natural gas, heating oil and electricity. I find that alternative measures of energy price shocks produce different patterns of impulse responses than oil price shocks. The overwhelming evidence indicates that alternative energy price models, excluding a model containing gasoline prices, outperforms the baseline model containing oil prices for many states, particularly at short-to-mid forecast horizons. In the third chapter, which is coauthored with Lance Bachmeier, we determine whether accounting for oil price endogeneity is important when predicting state-level economic activity. We find that accounting for endogeneity matters for in-sample fit for most states. Specifically, in-sample fit would be improved by using a larger model which contains both regular oil price and endogenous oil price movements. However, we conclude that accounting for endogeneity is not important for out-of-sample forecast accuracy, and a simple model containing only the change in the price of oil produces equally accurate forecasts. Accounting for endogeneity is particularly important in an environment in which rising oil prices were caused by a growing global economy, such as in the years 2004-2007.

This is a quantitative study aimed at analyzing the migration patterns across the fifty United States of America and the determinants thereof. This research is founded upon the theories and study of agglomeration economies and institutional factors to evaluate each state in terms of creativity and freedom. Values for creativity and institutional freedom serve as the independent variables. The dependent variable is actual state to state migration data during the 2004-2008 period from the Internal Revenue Service. Measures for education, climate, population, distance, and crime rates serve as control variables in this study. All 34 models of this study were analyzed via multivariate linear regression using the SPSS 17.0 software package. All models were highly significant with high coefficients of determination. The results show that creativity is highly significantly and positively correlated with circulatory migration flows. Economic, personal, and overall freedom were very significant predictors of migration in terms of attraction and circulation. Apart from education, all the control variables examined were significant predictors of migration flows. This study also creates a new measure of overall freedom: the FRASERMPFI, which outperformed all other independent variables. The results of this study have several implications for workers, businesses, and policy makers. It is hoped that the results of this study can serve as a reference for future economic growth and promotion of freedom in the U.S.

This dissertation analyzes the relationships between four state gun laws—universal background checks, waiting periods, may-issue permitting, and violent misdemeanor prohibitions—and firearm homicide and suicide rates among Blacks and Whites in the United States. Using eighteen years of publicly available data, the study examined relationships employing a generalized difference-in-difference linear regression model with fixed effects for states and years. The results indicate that state gun laws in the United States frequently affect mortality rates among Blacks and Whites in different ways. Waiting periods, for example, are associated with large reductions in firearm homicide rates among Blacks but not Whites; may-issue permitting is associated with moderate reductions in firearm homicide rates among Whites but not among Blacks. The study also identifies several statistically significant interactive effects between gun laws and factors such as poverty, police presence, and the density of federally licensed firearm dealers. The dissertation concludes by discussing the value of these findings for informing both public policy and scholarly research in policy analysis and public administration. Most importantly, I argue that policymakers and gun violence researchers must increase their efforts to frame and analyze gun violence in the United States through the lens of social equity. / Doctor of Philosophy / The rates at which Blacks and Whites in the United States die as the result of gun violence differ markedly. This dissertation uses statistical analysis of eighteen years of data collected from governmental and scholarly sources to examine whether four different types of state gun law—universal background checks, waiting periods, may-issue permitting, and violent misdemeanor prohibitions—are related to gun death rates for Blacks and Whites and whether and how these relationships vary between the two. The results suggest that gun laws often affect mortality rates among Blacks and Whites differently. For instance, waiting periods appear to lead to fewer gun homicides among Blacks, while may-issue permitting is associated with fewer gun homicides among Whites. Relationships between different gun laws and the number of gun deaths Blacks and Whites experience also vary depending on levels of poverty, police presence, and the number of federally licensed gun dealers in specific geographic areas. The dissertation concludes by discussing how these findings might help policymakers and suggest topics for future research. Most importantly, the dissertation argues that researchers and policymakers should discuss gun violence in the United States in terms of its disproportionate impacts on different groups.

This thesis looks beyond the sensationalized coverage of Islamic State and instead utilizes Islamic State materials as a window into the remote radicalization and recruitment process of susceptible English-speaking individuals in the West. This thesis considers Islamic State’s mode of operation in conjunction with the appeals made in its online materials to devise a framework for understanding how Islamic State materials interact with susceptible individuals. The framework lends insight into how the body tasked with creating counter-narratives within the U.S. State Department can more effectively disrupt the remote recruitment and radicalization process.

Review of State Profiles : The Population and Economy of Each U. S. State 5th Ed. Shana Hertz Hattis Bernan. 2013. 554p, 9781598886405, $165.00

The subject of studying the institutional powers of state governors has largely been expressed on a macro level. Scholars have focused on obtaining a measurement of overall gubernatorial powers, often overlooking the quality of the individual measurements that make up their cumulative index. The most recognized method for measuring the formal and informal powers of state governors was created by Joseph A. Schlesinger in 1960, with Thad Beyle carrying on the work and providing periodical updates to the index. The scales used in these studies fall somewhat short of measuring the reality of gubernatorial powers in individual states, as existing scales of individual powers in appointment, tenure, veto, budget, branch official selection and party control fail to recognize important differences among the states. Measuring gubernatorial powers can be important for scholars and citizens alike. Further knowledge of the governor's role and powers in the political process can give voters and researchers a better sense of what a governor may be able to accomplish, and serve as a possible predictor of policy success. This study reviews and reworks the Beyle scales in an effort to identify power differences between states in terms of their individual powers. A closer look at the categories used in cumulative indices reveals that many states are scored identically despite awarding significantly different powers to their state executives. By identifying constitutional and statutory differences among states, revised scales and scores are suggested to improve the validity of measuring the individual powers. A time period comparison for the years 1980-2005 shows that the revised scales find less change in certain powers than the Beyle scales. Finally, the results of the project are used to partially fulfill an existing framework for predicting and evaluating gubernatorial policy success in the states, allowing researchers a better relative context from which to predict and assess gubernatorial actions. / Master of Arts

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